South Asia Investor Review

Ruling politicians in New Delhi continue to hype their country's economic growth even as the Indian currency hits new lows against the US dollar, corporate profits fall, electrical power demand slows, domestic savings and investment rates decline and foreign capital flees Indian markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has  questioned  India's GDP and independent economists Professors Arun Kumar and Ashoka Modi and investment banker Ruchir Sharma have detailed why the Indian official data can not be trusted. It seems that the BJP-led government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is fast losing credibility by politicizing the civilian bureaucracy and the military brass to project their economic and  military failures  as successes.   IMF Gives C Grade to India's GDP Data Beyond the disputed claim of being the "fourth largest economy", the Modi government's failure on the national health and wellness front is also getting more attention. “Air is unbr...

The US State Department has suspended processing of immigrant visas from 75 countries, including Pakistan but not India. This action followed President Donald Trump's social media post that listed, without context, the percentage of immigrant households from these countries that rely on the US government financial assistance. While Mr. Trump’s post singled out immigrants, the fact is that the term “financial assistance” as used by him includes social security and Medicare payments which are entitlements received by all senior citizens, both naturalized and US-born. It listed immigrant households from Bhutan (81.4%), Yemen Arab Republic (75.2%) and Somalia (71.9%) as the top three "Welfare Recipients". It also included Afghanistan (68.1%), Burma (59.2%), Bangladesh (54.8%), Pakistan (40.2%) and China (32.9%). India was not shown on this list.  A US State Department statement explained the decision to suspend immigrant visa processing as follows:  "President Trump has...

In a recent  speech  to young Hindus in New Delhi, the Indian National Security Advisor  Ajit Doval  urged his audience to "avenge history". He talked about the looting and destruction of Hindu temples and many centuries humiliation suffered by Indians. Though he did not specifically say it, there was no doubt in the minds of his audience that he was talking about invaders like Mahmud of Ghazni, an Afghan Muslim ruler, who is said to have destroyed a Hindu temple in Somnath. Indian Prime Minister Modi (Left) with NSA Ajit Doval Anti-Muslim rhetoric like Doval’s has made Indian Muslims fear for their lives. It has also put India among top countries with greatest likelihood of  mass atrocities , and raised security concerns among India’s neighbors. In its latest warning, the US Holocaust Museum has put three countries scoring higher than India. Myanmar holds the top spot, followed by Chad and Sudan. However, many high-ranking nations including Myanmar and Sud...

Recently released HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)  raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more  prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services?  Let us try and understand it in more detail.  21% Pakistanis Buy Tandoori Nan. Source: Gallup Pakistan Data Discrepancy:   There is a significant discrepancy in household data for per capita ...

As we enter the year 2026, it is time to review the year 2025 and wish you all Happy New Year 2026! May it bring peace, prosperity and happiness to all!!  The year 2025 saw Pakistan  defeat a brazen Indian attack  on its soil, while reviving its economy and fighting increasing terror. Pakistan's successful response to multiple serious challenges in 2025 helped significantly raise its geopolitical profile with improved ties with the United States and stronger relations with its friends in China, Russia and the Middle East. Pakistan’s GDP crossed the $400 billion mark in 2025. The year ended with Pakistani currency stable and the KSE-100, the key Pakistani stock market index,  achieving new record highs with over 50% annual return in US dollar terms for investors. Privatization efforts gained steam with the sale of the PIA, the debt-ridden money-losing state-owned national airline, to private Pakistani investors. The political issues between the rulers and the oppositi...

After decades of failed attempts, the Government of Pakistan has finally privatized the Pakistan International Airline (PIA) under intense pressure from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ). Nonetheless, it is a deal that will give the national airline not only a chance to survive but to thrive in the long run. As part of structuring the sale for Rs. 135 billion, the government has assumed Rs. 654 billion in debt and pension obligations. The government gets only Rs. 10 billion in cash but it gives the new owners a clean balance sheet in return for a commitment to invest Rs. 125 billion of the Rs. 135 billion sale price in the carrier.  PIA Privatization Deal Structure. Source: Standard Capital Securities Pvt Ltd. Pakistani politicians have used state-owned enterprises like the PIA as a vehicle for doling out  political patronage . They have given jobs, including top jobs, to political cronies who have neither the experience nor the inclination to run these PSUs like busines...