South Asia Investor Review

The Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran war have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of drone warfare. Is the Pakistani military learning lessons from them to prepare for future conflicts? Let's examine the answer to this question based on recent announcements.  Pakistan's Long Range Drone D-248 Pakistan has revealed a 3,000-kilometer range one-way drone in July this year. The state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) displayed two new long-range loitering munitions – the D-248 and the S-369 – at the 2026 Indus Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Expo on July 22–23, 2026 in Islamabad.   The D-248 drone uses a tailless delta configuration – similar to  Iran ’s Shahed-136 – and carries a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 240 kg, a wingspan of 3.3 m, a payload of 30-50 kg, a maximum speed of 225 kph, a cruise speed of 185 kph, an endurance of 12-14 hours, and a flight ceiling of up to 4,500 m.  Iran's Shahed drones have been used in both the Ukraine-Rus...

"We are in Zelenskyy’s shoes now", read a recent  headline  in a major Indian newspaper. There are similar concerns being raised in other world capitals in Asia and Europe after President Donald Trump's decisions to cut military supplies and stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine following a White House summit with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine who is facing the military might of Russia on the battlefield in Europe.     From L to R: Putin, Trump, Xi and Modi “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” said Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-elect. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said the  US has “changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent”. The events of last week have revived the memory of a quote attributed to former US Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger who is reported to have said: "The word will go...

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal" Henry Kissinger India is emerging as the biggest beneficiary of the Ukraine War and the US efforts to check China's rise. Indian businesses are busting US sanctions to take advantage of the vacuum left in Russia by the exit of western businesses since the start of the Ukraine War.  At the same time, the US is rewarding India by promoting it as an alternative to China in the global supply chain.  Meanwhile, Beijing is warning New Delhi that India "will be the biggest victim" of America's "proxy war" against China.  L to R: Modi, Putin, Xi and Biden Soaring Russia-India Trade:  Since the start of Russia's invasion of  Ukraine , India has ramped up its imports of  Russian oil  by a whopping 33 times, according to the  Christian Science Monitor .  Dr. Nivedita Kapoor, an Indian expert at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told the Monitor: “Right now the...

Pakistan displayed its latest drones at IDEAS 2022 (International Defence Exhibition and Seminar) Defense Expo held in November in Karachi. It also presented sessions on artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and connectivity. The event attracted more than 50 countries, including large pavilions set up by Pakistan's closest friends China and Turkey.  The four-day IDEAS 2022 opened on November 15, 2022 at Karachi Expo Centre, bringing together 300 leading national and international defense manufacturers and over 300 foreign delegates from 57 countries. Pakistan's Shahpar 2 Attack Drone Shahpar 2 Drone: On display at IDEAS 2022 was  Shahpar-2  Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) attack drone  produced by Global Industrial and Defense Solutions (GIDS), a Pakistani state-owned defense conglomerate. It can fly at a maximum speed of around 222 kilometers per hour (kph) with maximum range of around 1,050 kilometers, and the data link range of 300 kilometers. ...

The mighty Russian military's recent string of losses to the much smaller Ukrainian forces are bringing back memories of the humiliating Russian defeat at the hands of the Mujahideen in  Afghanistan  in the 1980s. The Communist Party leaders who presided over the disgraceful Soviet exit were soon ousted from power and replaced by Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev's attempts to reform the Soviet system resulted in its complete collapse. The Soviet Union then ceased to exist by 1991. Could something similar happen to the Russian Federation now?  Mikhail Gorbachev (Left) with Vladimir Putin Some people in Ukraine and elsewhere in the West do believe that Ukraine will be another  Afghanistan  for the Russians. For example, Pakistani-Ukrainian billionaire  Mohammad Zahoor  believes “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia". Talking with Arab News, he said: “This is time, actually, for us not to keep quiet. We have to take sides". Zahoor told...

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit meeting of the China-Russia sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan this week. India is a full member of this alliance which has been created to counter the US dominance in Asia. At the same time, New Delhi has also joined QUAD, a group of 4 nations (Australia, India, Japan and US) formed by the United States  to counter China's rise. Simultaneous membership of these two competing alliances is raising serious questions about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's real intentions and trustworthiness. Is this Indian policy shift from "non-alignment" to " all-alignment " sustainable?  2022 SCO Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Source: Xinhua Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO):   Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a political, economic and security organization designed to counter US dominance. It was founded by Beijing and Moscow in 2001. Currently, it has 8 memb...

India, a western ally, is openly buying Russian coal, oil and weapons worth tens of billions of dollars at deep discounts. These actions amount to busting western sanctions and financing President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. Many smaller developing countries, including Bangladesh and Pakistan, are abiding by these sanctions and suffering from the consequences in terms of high prices of fuel and food. Why these double standards? Do these policy contractions serve the broader US interests in the Asia region?  India's Russian Imports Soaring Since the Start of Ukraine War. Source: Reuters India's Russian coal imports are up 6-fold from May 27 to June 15, 2022, according to  Reuters . Delhi's Russian oil buying has jumped 31-fold in this period.  Bulk shipments of Russian thermal coal to India began in the third week of May, 2022.  India is defying western sanctions to buy millions of barrels of discounted Russian crude oil, hiding their origin and exporting refined...

A recent public opinion survey conducted in China revealed that 73% of respondents have a positive view of Pakistan, second only to Russia which is seen positively by 80% of respondents.  About 18% of Chinese survey participants have a negative view of Pakistan while 9% are neutral. The results of this survey show that the oft-repeated talk of China and Pakistan being " iron brothers " is not just official rhetoric; it is actually supported by the Chinese people. It is also evident in the fact that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is  transforming Pakistan's least developed area .  Other nations enjoying favorable views among the Chinese include Singapore (66%), North Korea (62%), and Germany (61%). Most negatively perceived countries include the United States (90%), India (56%), Japan (54%), Vietnam (48%), South Korea (47%), and Ukraine (46%).  Chinese Public Opinion Survey of 25 Countries. Source: CEIAS The survey in  China  was conducted by th...

India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to  media reports . Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).    Russian Influence On Indian Military Doctrine. Source: Air University, US Air Force Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine: It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on depl...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will no longer  fabricate  computer chips for Russia, according to media reports. The ban will particularly affect Russia's Elbrus and Baikal processors, unless China agrees to step in to manufacture these chips, and risk additional US sanctions itself. Both Russian processors use mature 28 nm technology. The world's most advanced TSMC fabrication technology today is 5 nanometers. The best US-based  Intel  can do today is 7nm technology. China's SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) has the capability to produce chips using 14 nm technology.  Semiconductor chips form the core of all modern systems from automobiles to airplanes to smartphones, computers, home appliances, toys, telecommunications and advanced weapons systems.   Top 10 Semiconductor Chip Producing Countries. Source: Comtrade Database China is the world's biggest producer of semiconductor chips, according to data from...

Russia is a commodities superpower. The nation's Eurasian landmass is rich in all kinds of natural resources from food to fuel to metals. To punish Moscow for  invading Ukraine , the US and  G-7 nations have imposed sanctions  on Russia. These sanctions have effectively removed Russian commodities from the global supply chain, triggering double digit price increases for food, fuels and metals. Will the G-7 actions leave the US dollar much weaker? Will the Chinese currency, backed by commodities, gain strength at the expense of the US dollar and Euro? Will the era of commodity-backed money return? In a note to clients, Credit Suisse investment strategist Zoltan Pozsar has answered some of these questions. He says "this (Russia) crisis is not anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971". "After this war is over, "money" will never be the same again.....and bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all t...

Ukraine is under a massive Russian assault. Kiev is under siege. Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objective is to keep Ukraine permanently out of NATO, the western nations' military alliance. Putin says the West has broken its promise to not expand NATO after the end of the Cold War. Ukraine is complaining that the West has left Ukraine at the mercy of Russia's powerful military after it agreed to give up its nuclear weapons under firm security assurances contained in the Budapest Memorandum.  NATO Expansion. Source: BBC Ukraine Gave Up Nukes: When Ukraine became independent in the early 1990s,  it was the third-largest nuclear power in the world with thousands of nuclear arms. In the years that followed, Ukraine made the decision to denuclearize completely based on security guarantee from the U.S., the U.K. and Russia, known as the Budapest Memorandum.  Ukrainian analyst Mariana Budjeryn explained in an interview with  NPR's Mary Louise Kelly  as follow...