South Asia Investor Review

Pakistanis are eating more and healthier foods, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22. Per capita average daily calorie intake in Pakistan has jumped to 2,735 calories in FY 2021-22 from 2,457 calories in 2019-20. The biggest contributor to it is the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables which soared from 53.6 Kg to 68.3 Kg, less than half of the 144 Kg ( 400 grams/day ) recommended by the World Health Organization. Healthy food helps cut disease burdens and reduces demand on the healthcare system. Under former Prime Minister  Imran Khan's leadership , Pakistan succeeded in achieving these nutritional improvements in spite of  surging global food prices  amid the  Covid19 pandemic .  Pakistan Per Capita Daily Calorie Consumption. Source: Economic Surveys of Pakistan The trend of higher per capita daily calorie consumption has continued since the 1950s. It has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2735 in 2021-22...

The United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have recently assessed American travelers' risk of COVID19 infection in Pakistan being among the lowest in the world. The Economist magazine has ranked Pakistan second in the world for return to the normalcy of pre-pandemic life. These assessments stand in sharp contrast to Pakistan's low ranking for pandemic preparedness by the Global Health Index (GHI). GHS has also continued to rank India higher than its neighbors in spite of Prime Minister Narendra  Modi's disastrous handling  of the COVID19 outbreak in India that saw people gasping for breath and dying on the streets of major Indian cities.  The health experts at GHS seem to be totally out of touch with reality. They are the epitome of the  "ivory tower" academia.  US CDC Travel Risk Map. Source: CDC US CDC on Pakistan: In its latest global travel advisory, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has placed Pakistan at level-2, a level assi...

With a score of 84.4, Pakistan ranks third among 50 countries tracked by the Economist magazine for return to pre-pandemic life. Pakistan's neighbor India has a score of 46.5, ranking it near the bottom in 48th position.  China (score 72.9) is 19th, United States (72.8) 20th, United Arab Emirates (68.9) 27th and United Kingdom (62.5) 36th. The global average for return to pre-pandemic activity is 66.6 on a scale of 0 to 100.  Top Performing Countries For Return to Pre-Pandemic Activity Level. Source: Economist Economist's Global Normalcy Index: The Economist magazine is tracking 50 countries for return to pre-pandemic activity level. Here is how it  explains it: "The global normalcy index plummeted in March 2020 as many countries imposed draconian restrictions on their citizens. It fell to just 35 in April 2020, before improving gradually over the following months. Today it stands at 66, suggesting that the world has travelled roughly half of the way back to pre- pandemic...

In a recently published fiction imagined for 2034 by former top US Admiral James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman,  China  and the United States go to war that ends in India's victory. The authors portray Indians as heroes whose statesmen-ship de-escalates World War III, negotiates peace and helps India emerge as the new global superpower. Patel, the Indian uncle of the Indian-American deputy national security advisor Sandeep Chowdhury tells him, "America’s hubris has finally gotten the better of its greatness." The authors imagine the United Nations headquarters moves from New York to Mumbai after the war. Had this book been written after watching thousands of Indian victims of COVID19 gasping for breath and dying daily on the streets of New Delhi, I think Ackerman and Stavridis would have conceived  and developed a completely different plot line for their novel.   2034 Book Cover Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis, authors of "2034: A Novel of the Next World War...

Global food prices are soaring by double digits amid the  coronavirus pandemic , according to Bloomberg News. Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex, a measure of key farm goods futures contracts, is up almost 20% since June. It may in part be driven by  speculators in the commodities markets . These rapid price rises are hitting the people in Pakistan and the rest of the world hard.  In spite of these hikes, Pakistan remains among the least expensive places for food, according recent studies. It is important for Pakistan's federal and provincial governments to rise up to the challenge and relieve the pain inflicted on the average Pakistani consumer.   Global Agricultural Futures Contracts. Source: Bloomberg Global Food Prices: Global food prices are increasing at least partly due to several nations buying basic food commodities to boost their strategic reserves in the midst of the pandemic.  A Bloomberg News report says that "agricultural commodity buyers from Cai...

With  coronavirus spread contained , Pakistan economy is rebounding with V-shaped economic recovery.    Pakistanis have once again defied all foreign and domestic doomsayers, including media, activists and think tanks of all varieties.  The nation's monthly Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for July 2020 has returned to where it was a year ago in July 2019, according to data released by  Pakistan Bureau of Statistics .  Meanwhile, the number of daily new cases has declined from over 6,000 a day in June to around 500 a day now. There has also been dramatic reduction in hospital admissions and the need for intensive care. The LSMI output increased by 5.02% for July, 2020 compared to July, 2019 and 9.54% in June, 2020.  The recovery in manufacturing is quite broad, extending from cement production to fuel sales and growing demand for automobiles to home appliances, according to  Bloomberg News .  Pakistan has successfully overcome the ch...

On Pakistan's 73rd Independence Anniversary, the people of the South Asian nation have demonstrated their resilience yet again. They have defied all foreign and domestic doomsayers, including media, activists and think tanks of all varieties. Pakistan has successfully  fought off the deadly COVID19 virus  and begun to bounce back economically. Moody's rating agency has raised Pakistan's economic outlook from "under review for downgrade" to "stable". Pakistan's Planning Minister Asad Umar is talking of a " V-shaped recovery ". Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) is recovering. Monthly cement sales have rebounded to the pre-pandemic level, fertilizers sales are setting records, fuel sales have increased, tax collection is up,  exports are rising and the Karachi stock market is booming again. Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa have been on the same page in tackling the health and economic crises faced by Pakistan. C...

Did the pandemic surveillance system fail in early detection of the Coronavirus in US and Pakistan? What are the problems in this system? What needs to be done to correct the problems? Positive Test Rate Declines to 1 in 6.36 (15.7%) From Peak of 1 in 4.47 (22.3%) on June 4, 2020 How are Prime Minister  Imran Khan of Pakistan  and President Donald Trump of the United States handling the  COVID19 pandemic ? Are both their responses fundamentally flawed? Are absolute total lockdowns as recommended by the World Health Organization necessary in Pakistan? Can Pakistan handle the economic and human consequences of extended total lockdown? Pakistan COVID19 Weekly Death Decline to 577 Now From Peak of 869 Last Week Weekly COVID19 deaths in Pakistan have declined to 577 this week from 869 last week. To put it perspective, about 4,000 Pakistanis died everyday from various causes before the current pandemic. The number of people testing positive in Pakistan has decli...

Coronavirus infection rates and deaths in Pakistan are among the lowest in the world while the continuing lockdown is causing enormous damage to the nation's economy and livelihoods, according to government data. Health ministry data shows that fewer than a thousand lives have been lost to the disease in the country since the start of  COVID19 infections  more than two months ago. Meanwhile, millions of people in  manufacturing , retail and the unorganized sectors are unemployed or underemployed. All of this is happening during  Ramzan and Eid periods  that account for bulk of retail sales in the majority Muslim country of 220 million. Pakistanis do not necessarily face the same level of risk from coronavirus as people living in America and Europe do. Age Distribution of Covid Cases/Deaths in Pakistan. Source: covid.gov.pk Age Factor in Covid19 Mortality: Over 40% of all coronavirus deaths in Europe and America have occurred among the elderly living ...