South Asia Investor Review

A snap poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan on April 3 and 4 shows broad support for Prime Minister  Imran Khan 's decision to seek dissolution of the National Assembly and call fresh elections.  Support for the decision is nationwide with 66% in Punjab, 69% in Sindh and 78% in KPK province. It is the strongest among those identifying themselves as PTI voters with 95% of them approving the decision. Among the Opposition parties, 44% of PMLN voters and 50% of PPP voters agree with the decision.   Source: Gallup Pakistan Here are the key findings of the  Gallup Pakistan Poll :  1) Widespread support for dissolution of National Assembly in Pakistan Respondents were asked ‘ PM has dissolved the national assembly and called for fresh elections. Do you Support or are you against this’ To this question a wide majority 68% say they support and 32% say they oppose PM Imran Khan’s move. Source: Gallup Pakistan 2) Majority don’t believe in US Conspiracy to remove Imran K...

Prominent Pakistani journalist and political analyst Najam Sethi, a strong critic of Prime Minister Imran Khan, sees desperation among the Pakistani Democratic Movement (PDM) leaders. In a recent interview with well-known journalists Raza Rumi and Murtaza Solangi on  Naya Daur  social media channel, Sethi said the Pakistani opposition, particularly PMLN, believe it is "now or never" for them.   PDM Leadership L to R: Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Maryam Nawaz Najam Sethi added that if the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government led by Prime Minister Khan survives the current 5 year term and succeeds in stabilizing the nation's economy,  the ruling party will be re-elected for another 5 year term in 2023 with the support of what Sethi calls "Miltablishment" (a euphemism for Pakistani military). This, Sethi said, would mean that the PMLN would break up and lose its relevance. Sethi acknowledges there is genuine support for PTI in spite of Imran Khan g...

Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) Chief Imran Khan became Pakistan's 22nd prime minister after his 22-year-long quest for the highest executive office in the land. What is the historic significance of this event for Pakistan's democracy? Has it finally ended the three-decade-long  dynastic duopoly  of the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan People's Party which are controlled by Sharifs and Bhuttos? Will the emergence of the PTI as the 3rd political force likely reduce corruption and improve governance in Pakistan? Is Imran Khan's nomination of Sardar Usman Buzdar as Punjab Chief Minister a mistake? Will Prime Minister Imran Khan make mistakes as he begins his tenure? Will his opponents jump at every opportunity to attack him when he makes mistakes? Should he be allowed to make mistakes as he learns on the job? Is he entitled to a honeymoon period?  Do the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies call all the shots in Pakistan? Is the  military's role ...

What will be the impact of tragic terror attacks with mass casualties on Pakistan's July 25, 2018  general elections ? How does the current situation compare with the situation in 2013 elections? Will the elections proceed as scheduled? Pakistan Elections 2018 Forecast by  Intermarket and Exotix Investment Firms Which party is likely to get the most votes and parliamentary seats in Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? Will one party get a clear majority? Who will form the new government? Is PTI Chief Imran Khan likely to be the next prime minister of Pakistan? Will it be a coalition government? How can a weak coalition government implement a radical reform agenda proposed by Imran Khan? Why did former prime minister of Pakistan Mr.  Nawaz Sharif , convicted recently by a Pakistani court on charges of having assets beyond income, come back to Lahore to face certain arrest? What is his strategy? What is Nawaz Sharif's future in Pakistani politics after ...

“Na Khuda hi mila, na visaal-e-sanam/Na udhar kay rahay, na idhar kay rahe (I found neither faith, nor union with my lover/And now I belong neither there nor here).” Pakistan's quest for democracy under civilian rule has produced neither democracy nor development in the Islamic country of over 180 million people. Currently, Pakistan is experiencing 6th consecutive year of  stagnant economy and human development under an elected but highly corrupt "democratic" government run by the Sharif family and their cronies for their own benefit. Is it a Democracy? Can one call it a rule-of-law or democracy when the Sharifs illegally order the Lahore police to attack the home of Allama Tahir ul Qadri, kill over a dozen unarmed civilians including women, and then refuse to file a report  (FIR) of the incident at the local police station?  Can you call it constitutional rule when the ruling politicians openly defy the Supreme Court orders to hold local government elections un...

With an estimated $788 billion PPP GDP for 2011, Pakistan's economy is the 23rd largest in the world, according to the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011 . Other surprises in the report include the follpowing: 1.  China may have already pulled ahead of the United States to become world's largest economy.  2.  India's economy is now the world's third largest economy after passing Japan's.  3. Pakistan is the second least expensive country in the world in terms of  how much a US dollar can buy there. Egypt is the least expensive.  4. The six largest middle income economies – China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico – account for 32.3 percent of world GDP, whereas the 6 largest high income economies – United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Italy – account for 32.9 percent. 4. Asia and the Pacific, including China and India, accounts for 30 percent of world GDP, Eurostat-OECD 54 percent, Lati...

Pakistan is the second least expensive country in the world. Pakistan's GDP is $788 billion as of 2011 based on purchasing power parity (PPP), according to International Comparisons Program (ICP) findings 2011 released yesterday by the World Bank. World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP) does a detailed study of a list of around 800 household and nonhousehold products to compare real purchasing power for trans-national income comparison program (ICP). The latest ICP findings conclude that Pakistan's per capita income is US$4,450.00, just slightly below India's US$4,735.00 ICP Based GDP Per Capita. Source: World Bank At US$4,450 per capita, Pakistan's PPP GDP works out to US$788 billion for 2011, and more than a trillion US dollars now. The results of an earlier ICP program for 2005 and 2006 released by Asian Development Bank in 2009 concluded that Pakistan's per capita income was HK$ 13,528.  It reported India’s per capita as HK $12,09...

Former Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza's dramatic August 28 press conference with a copy of the Holy Quran in his hand has become the center of news media attention in recent days. Following this highly emotion-charged press conference which was carried live by almost all of the mainstream TV channels, Mirza has been hailed as a hero by some of the most popular TV talking heads for railing against MQM's top leadership, and for singling out Pakistan Peoples Party leader and Federal Home Minister Rehman Malik for his harshest accusations. To assess the extent of Mirza's credibility, it is important to understand the following: 1. What triggered the latest of Mirza's outbursts? Was it Malik's decision to send the Rangers in to the Lyari neighborhood of Karachi ? 2. When Mirza used a copy of the Holy Quran in the month of Ramadan to convey his sincerity, did he really tell the whole truth? or did he leave out the ugly truths about the horrific cri...

Guest Post by Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan, Dean of NUST Business School , Islamabad. Pakistan's economy has grown at an average annual rate of 5.0 per cent over the last 62 years despite numerous impediments to its growth. By any standard, this has been a major achievement in terms of raising real incomes and alleviating poverty. The economic growth, however, remained uneven and interrupted by a variety of factors for a prolonged period. It was during 2000-07 that Pakistan's economy experienced the longest spell of strongest growth due to sound economic policies, structural reforms and a benign international economic environment. Economic growth has slowed considerably in Pakistan over the last two to three years owing to a variety of domestic and external factors. What is worrisome is the new development where the growth number is being manipulated to paint a rosy picture. There was a story about the manipulation of growth number for 2009-10 in The News on May 16, 2010. The usual m...

In spite of its claims to the contrary, the Bhutto family's private jagir (property) of Pakistan People's Party has been instrumental in preserving the feudal system in Pakistan, through perpetuation of its feudal democracy , controlled by the largest landowners in Sind and Punjab. Z.A. Bhutto's nationalization in the 1970s was the biggest culprit that stymied industrialization of Pakistan and the growth of the middle class, while it preserved the feudal system. Bhutto emasculated the industrialists who encouraged better education and skills development for workers for their industries, while feudal rulers continued to take their toll on the rural poor living on their lands who remain their slaves and reliably continue to vote their feudal lords into power in the name of democracy. The Bhutto era nationalization has left such deep scars on the psyche of Pakistani industrialists that, to this day, these industrialists are not willing to make long-term investments in big i...

President Musharaf found a friendly crowd in Karachi during the last weekend visit which coincided with the first anniversary of the Red Mosque raid in Islamabad. As the President met with Karachi-ites, a series of bomb blasts in Pakistan's largest city served as a reminder that there is no escaping the worsening security situation that plagues the entire nation. At a gala reception in President Musharraf's honor by Karachi's business community, business leaders including Khalid Tawab, Mian Zahid Hussain, Abdul Haseeb Khan, Majyd Aziz warmly welcomed the President and reiterated their full confidence and support for him. Governor Sindh Dr. Ishartul Ibad Khan and City Nazim Mustafa Kamal also joined in the welcome, according to Karachi's Business Recorder newspaper. The President thanked the community and called upon the industrialists to help promote rapid industrialization, investment and jobs creation in the country. He met with a delegation of leading industrialists ...

Is Shaukat Aziz to Blame? Former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz is frequently blamed in Pakistani media and political and economic circles for the rapid decline of Pakistan's economy during the last six months. The critics say the economic boom under Mr. Aziz was short-lived because it was achieved by easy, plentiful consumer credit, massive borrowing and construction spending in public and private sectors. They further charge that Mr. Aziz promoted the service sector while ignoring large infrastructure projects to enhance Pakistan's agricultural and industrial sectors. They also claim that, if Mr. Aziz had done a good job, the economy would have continued to perform well in spite of all the changes that have transpired since he quit. Some go to the extent of claiming that there was no real economic boom and the whole boom story was a fabrication. How Do Modern Economies Work? To examine the validity of the charge sheet against Mr. Aziz, let us try and understand how modern e...