Gallup Pakistan Poll: Over Two-thirds Support Imran Khan's Decision to Dissolve National Assembly

A snap poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan on April 3 and 4 shows broad support for Prime Minister Imran Khan's decision to seek dissolution of the National Assembly and call fresh elections.  Support for the decision is nationwide with 66% in Punjab, 69% in Sindh and 78% in KPK province. It is the strongest among those identifying themselves as PTI voters with 95% of them approving the decision. Among the Opposition parties, 44% of PMLN voters and 50% of PPP voters agree with the decision.  

Source: Gallup Pakistan

Here are the key findings of the Gallup Pakistan Poll

1) Widespread support for dissolution of National Assembly in Pakistan

Respondents were asked ‘ PM has dissolved the national assembly and called for fresh elections. Do you Support or are you against this’ To this question a wide majority 68% say they support and 32% say they oppose PM Imran Khan’s move.

Source: Gallup Pakistan

2) Majority don’t believe in US Conspiracy to remove Imran Khan, although split exists along party lines.Significant majority 64% responded to this question and say that Imran Khan was being ousted because of inflation and not because of a foreign conspiracy.

3) Public Opinion split over performance of Imran Khan

Respondents were asked ‘ Imran Khan ruled for 3.5 years. Are you satisfied with the performance of their government or not satisfied?

To this question 54% said they are dissatisfied and 46% said they are satisfied’

4) Anti Americanism: Only 1 in 3 consider the US to be a friend

Respondents were asked: Some people think that America is a friend of Pakistan, and some people think it is an enemy. what is your opinion?

Almost 2 in 3 Pakistanis(72%) think US to be an enemy. Anti Americanism was highest among PTI Supporters (80% thought America was an enemy) and lowest among PML-N voters (65%) 

The poll included a random sample of 800 households (18+ males and females) interviewed by telephone on April 3 and 4, 2022. Provincial breakdown: 66% Punjab, 18% Sindh, 13% KPK and 4% Balochistan. Urban 34%, rural 64%. Margin of error: +-3-5%, 95% Confidence Level. 

Gallup Pakistan's note on Sample Size: The sample size used in this survey is quite adequate even in comparison to international standards. Gallup US Daily poll is 500 and the Gallup Poll Social Series is 1000, both having a track record of reliable predictability for the USA (a country nearly 100 million larger in population of Pakistan). According to Five Thirty-Eight, one of the most credible sources on polling in the US: "Surveying 2,000 voters substantially reduces error compared with surveying 400 of them, but surveying 10,000 voters will produce only marginal improvements in accuracy compared with the 2,000- person survey".

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Comments

Riaz Haq said…
SHAHEEN SEHBAI
@SSEHBAI1

اہم ترین نکتہ: حزب اختلاف کو سب مل گیا یعنی عمران خان گئے، الیکشن آ گئے، بزدار گئے وغیرہ مگر ایک بات نہیں ہوئی- خان نے انکی حکومت نہیں بننے دی ورنہ سب کچھ تہس نحس کر دیتے- یہی دل میں کانٹا ہے-اب اگر فوج یا عدلیہ نےانھیں دوبارہ حکومت دے دی اور الیکشن نہ ہویے تو سب کا منہ کالا ہوگا

https://twitter.com/SSEHBAI1/status/1511830906285268999?s=20&t=JNP2etfqM-Z2U-QUg3rqGw
Riaz Haq said…
#PMLN "Reform" Agenda: Abolish NAB, Repeal PECA, Disallow EVM . شاہد خاقان عباسی نے نیب سمیت کئی قوانین کے خاتمے کا اعلان کردیا. نیب کو ختم کرنا ہے جب تک نیب ہے ملک نہیں چلے گا ... #corruption @ImranKhanPTI #PTI #imrankhanPTI #Pakistan #Reform https://youtu.be/XV7U1vBtY90 via @YouTube
Riaz Haq said…
BBC's Secunder Kermani on Twitter:

Secunder Kermani
@SecKermani
·

Just met this poor, v emotional woman outside parliament at 3am, saying her heart was broken by Imran Khan’s ousting, and that she would never accept this new “government of thieves”

Imran Khan will likely remain a formidable force in Pakistani politics

https://twitter.com/SecKermani/status/1512917101593325571?s=20&t=fME706NId2ri9aJcPzRRmQ
Riaz Haq said…
#PTI is the one truly national political force representing all 4 provinces of #Pakistan. PTI is also the largest single party in Pakistan's National Assembly. #imrankhanPTI's ouster represents a blow to Pak's national unity #Punjab #KP #Sindh #Balochistan

Watch PTI's Ali Mohammad Khan's fiery speech in Pakistan's national assembly after no-confidence vote:

"My leader will be back with two-thirds majority"

https://youtu.be/enbRU_-8K98
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan's political crisis: Why Imran Khan's enemies want him out?
by Peter Oborne
6 April 2022

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/pakistan-imran-khan-political-crisis-enemies-want-him-out-why

Khan has many strengths as a politician, but in the context of Pakistani politics, one abiding weakness. True to his own nature and the precepts of his deep Islamic faith, he is not corrupt. This quality is not simply unusual in Pakistani politics; it’s a crippling drawback.

Khan’s honesty makes him fundamentally unsuited to the debased methods that are second nature to many successful Pakistani politicians. Last weekend, when Khan’s enemies thought they were about to destroy him, the embattled prime minister simply dissolved parliament, paving the way for elections. This decision left Khan’s opponents in the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) clutching their pearls in horror.
How outrageous, they are saying, that the future of Pakistan should be decided by the democratic will of the people, rather than sordid deals struck in darkened rooms.

I have been racking my brain to think of a precedent, not just in Pakistan but any country, for Khan’s decision to go to the country at a time of deep crisis. I’ve failed.
In Britain, my own country, how much better would it have been if, back in 1990 Tory party plotters had chosen an election, rather than conspiring in smoke-filled rooms behind closed doors to destroy Margaret Thatcher, one of the greatest prime ministers in British history. It would have been the right thing to do, and so much more democratic. That’s, of course, why the plotters didn’t want an election. They secretly feared that Thatcher was more popular than them, and I dare say they were right.

I have seen neither Bilawal Bhutto Zardari nor Shehbaz Sharif, the leaders of the two main opposition parties aiming to force Khan out, attempt to explain what’s wrong with a popular vote. Both men know that Khan will fight on his record - and that it’s stronger than they admit.

Sharif knows that Khan inherited an economic mess when he took office four years ago - the legacy of egregious mismanagement by his own party, the Pakistan Muslim League. A highly intelligent and gifted man, Shebaz Sharif must be agonisingly aware in private that his party was the architect of the massive debt and gross economic incompetence that Khan is struggling to confront since taking office.

Imran Khan inherited a virtually empty Treasury, a broken tax system and barely two months’ worth of foreign exchange reserves. To deal with Pakistan’s external debts, the Khan government hiked up the prices of power and fuel, bearing most heavily on the poor. Popular anger was inevitable.

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He has a more commanding presence on the international stage than any Pakistani leader since Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the brilliant and charismatic founder of the PPP (and grandfather of Khan’s current opponent, PPP chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari). Like Ali Bhutto, Khan has worked to shape Pakistan as an independent nation. Ali Bhutto turned Pakistan away from dependence on the US that characterised the long dictatorship of Mohammad Ayub Khan. Imran Khan has sought to do the same, building alliances with China
and Russia, while also reaching out to Muslim states such as Iran, Malaysia and Turkey.


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Khan’s critics, both in Pakistan and overseas, have made light of his claims that the US could be responsible for his current political troubles. This attitude reflects either naivety, ignorance or disingenuousness.
While the facts are still obscure, and may never be fully known, history shows that Khan is entirely reasonable in fearing US interference in the country he governs.
Riaz Haq said…
Helped by #imrankhanPTI's extensive coverage, ARY
#ARYNews Tops TV Ratings in #Pakistan, beating 2nd ranked #GeoNews by wide margin. @PTIofficial https://nayatel.com/nayateltrending/

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1520460085494882304?s=20&t=c3g8VyprgG9iXigdBNjtng
Riaz Haq said…
How Imran Khan Is Disrupting Pakistan’s Political Economy
While Khan has lost the prime minister’s office, his core base of supporters has not abandoned him.

By Uzair Younus
May 05, 2022

https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/how-imran-khan-is-disrupting-pakistans-political-economy/


First as a cricketer and now as a politician, Imran Khan has for years perfected the art of drawing in a crowd. A day after he became the first prime minister in Pakistan’s history to be ousted through a vote of no confidence, Khan’s supporters came out in large numbers. Since then, Khan has addressed large crowds in Peshawar, Karachi, and Lahore, showcasing that he remains extremely popular, especially among the urban demographic.

Khan’s ability to draw out these numbers must be viewed as part of a broader global phenomenon, where significant portions of society, especially younger voters, have increasingly rallied to populist leaders.

A core driver of this draw is a rejection of “status quo elites” who have, the argument goes, extracted wealth and benefits for the few at the expense of the many. This belief in the United States drew voters to both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, and while their supporters disagreed on policies and ideology, they were united in their anger at status quo elites.

In Chile, a similar movement led to the election of a 36-year-old as president; in India, Narendra Modi became popular amid cries of “there is no alternative,” with millions of young Indians voting for him for a second term despite growing youth unemployment.

In Pakistan, anger at the status quo has been building up for years, starting with the country’s transition to democracy in 2007-08. Khan has been at the center of the movement, consistently railing against corruption and the extraction of wealth in Pakistan’s kleptocratic political economy. This consistency in messaging is a major attraction for those who believe in figures like Khan.

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Another key driver of his popularity has been the urban youth: the median age in Pakistan is about 23 years, meaning that a majority of Pakistanis were born after the country conducted its nuclear tests. This generation is influenced by nationalism and Islam — both disseminated through Pakistan Studies curricula in public and private schools. They grew up in the Musharraf dictatorship, which to this day is considered the “good old times” in middle- and upper-middle-class drawing rooms. The end of the dictatorship was followed by the traumatic years of democratic transition, marked by growing economic uncertainty, chronic power shortages, thousands of deaths at the hands of terrorists, and growing inequality.

During this same period, one corruption scandal after another reinforced the view that civilian elites were unworthy of ruling the country. Media channels and leading television anchors further popularized this narrative, and the Panama Papers’ revelations against the then-ruling establishment were the final nail in the coffin.

Khan harnessed this growing anger and grew his political base as part of his crusade against his political opponents. Growing digitization amplified his message, with digitally native youth volunteering for his party, leveraging social media and democratized information networks to spread his message.

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For a country facing another economic crisis, this polarization could not have come at a worse time. The country faces perhaps the greatest risk to internal cohesion since 1971, when East Pakistan broke off to form Bangladesh. Khan’s opponents have yet to demonstrate that they understand the full nature and scope of the crisis confronting the country.


They also do not have a narrative that can effectively push back against Khan, particularly in urban centers. All of this means that political volatility is not going away any time soon, and as polarization continues to grow, increased chaos and upheaval cannot be ruled out.

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