South Asia Investor Review

Why did Pakistan's decision to boycott the India-Pakistan match in solidarity with Bangladesh in this year's T20 World Cup send shockwaves around the world? And why did it trigger the International Cricket Council's and other cricket boards' urgent efforts to persuade Pakistan to return to the match? The reason has a lot to do with its massive financial impact, estimated to be as much as $500 million in this tournament alone. The ICC projects an average annual revenue of roughly $600 million in the current cycle from 2024 to 2027. The international cricketing body calls India, England and Australia " The Big Three " in the current revenue sharing formula. The reality is that India and Pakistan are "The Big Two" in terms of their revenue contributions from ICC events.  The current dispute arose when the ICC, currently headed by the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah's son Jay Shah, replaced Bangladesh by Scotland in the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup a...

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently opened a new parliament building in New Delhi. Prominently displayed in this new building is a provocative map of "Akhand Bharat" (Greater India) that includes neighboring nations of Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as part of India. After the inauguration, Modi's   parliamentary affairs minister Pralhad Joshi   tweeted  a picture of the mural and wrote: “The resolve is clear – Akhand Bharat.”  Akhand Bharat is part of the Fascist Hindutva ideology of Modi's party.  In the last two months since this chauvinistic display, the tight embrace and arming of Modi by the West is raising fears of destabilizing South Asia. Pakistani officials have recently talked about a revision of the country's "full-spectrum" nuclear doctrine with the addition of "zero-range" nuclear weapons as a deterrent against western-armed  Hindutva-fueled  Indian aggression. Akhand Bharat Mural in Indian Parliame...

India occupies 126th position among 137 nations ranked in the  World Happiness Report 2023  released by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network. In South Asia, Pakistan (score 4.555) ranks 108,  Sri Lanka 112, Bangladesh (4.282) 118 and India 126 (4.036). Only Taliban-ruled Afghanistan ranks worse at 137. Finland is the happiest nation in the world, followed by Denmark and Iceland in 2nd and 3rd place. Least Happy Countries in 2023. Source: Quartz Bottom Third Countries in World Happiness Rankings. Source: World Happiness Report The latest country rankings show life evaluations (answers to the Cantril ladder question) for each country, averaged over a 3 year period from 2020-2022.  The Cantril ladder asks respondents to think of a ladder, with the best possible life for them being a 10 and the worst possible life being a 0. They are then asked to rate their own current lives on that 0 to 10 scale. The rankings are from nationally representative samples for the ...

Shaikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, recently visited New Delhi to seek political and economic assistance from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This summit was preceded by Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen's trip to India where he said,  "I've requested Modi government to do whatever is necessary to sustain Sheikh Hasina's government".  Upon her return from India, Sheikh Hasina  told the news media  in Dhaka, "They (India) have shown much sincerity and I have not returned empty handed". It has long been an open secret that Indian intelligence agency  RAW  helped install Shaikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and her Awami League party relies on New Delhi's support to stay in power. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen has described India-Bangladesh as one between husband and wife. In an interview with Indian newspaper 'Ajkal,' he said, "Relation between the both countries is very cordial. It's muc...

Who carried out the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks at churches and hotels in  Sri Lanka ? Why? Is it a domestic group with outside help? What is India's role in it? Why did the attackers use India as their training base? Did  ISIS  inspire the attackers? With Muslims facing revenge attacks, what will happen to inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations in the island nation at the Southern tip of India? Will there be a renewed civil war? How will it affect South India and the South Asia region? Tamil Population in India and Sri Lanka What was the agenda of the Belt and Road Forum 2019 attended by 37 world leaders including Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan in Beijing? What did President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Imran Khan and other world leaders say at this summit? How will this affect the next phase of  China-Pakistan Economic Corridor  (CPEC), a flagship project of BRI (Belt Road Initiative)? How will concerns ranging from debt sustainability and in...

Since the end of the civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka has been booming even as the rest of South Asia region has lagged. Per Capita GDPs South Asia Region Source: Economist Sri Lanka's per capita income has quintupled over the last two decades from about $700 to $3500, significantly outperforming all other South Asian economies. During the same period, Pakistan's per capita GDP has increased from $500 to $1300 while India's is up from $400 to $1400. In addition to its high per capita GDP for the South Asia region, Sri Lanka has also excelled on Human Development Index (HDI), a key indicator of social development assessed each year by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Human Development Index in South Asia Source: UNDP Sri Lanka has the fastest growing economy with the highest social indicators in South Asia region. Its economy grew at 7.2% last year and it is expected to post 8% growth this year. With a literacy rate of 91% and life expectancy of 7...

In recent years, militant groups in the beautiful Swat valley , led by radical cleric Maulana Fazlullah, have been attacking and killing civilians as well as security forces in scenic Swat. In some 60 villages, the militants have set up a de facto "parallel government" with Islamic courts imposing sharia law. The region is effectively under militant control despite the presence of 20,000 Pakistani troops. Local opponents of the militants have been harshly critical of Pakistani civil society for its lack of concern for their plight as well as critical of the military and provincial government for their ineffective measures for controlling the tide of militancy. Media reports indicate that the Taliban are enforcing a complete ban on female education in the Swat district. Some 400 private schools enrolling 40,000 girls have been shut down. At least 10 girls' schools that tried to open after the January 15, 2009 deadline by the Taliban were blown up by the militants in the to...

It may not be any consolation to an average Pakistani but Pakistani economy is not alone in returning to the bad old days . Sri Lanka is keeping pace with Pakistan. While Sri Lanka's long running civil war has largely been limited to the north and east, leaving the populous, well-off west largely unscathed, its stresses are beginning to show in the island nation's economy. The Economist reports that Sri Lanka's annual inflation is close to 30%, the highest in South Asia. The rupee has appreciated against the dollar, further hurting exporters. By one estimate, economic growth—which was 7.6% in 2006—will be 4.3% this year. As elsewhere, inflation is being driven by high food and energy prices. But in Sri Lanka, 25-year average annual inflation is 12%. Monetary policy has been too loose, in part to finance the war. Including the cost of resettling refugees, the war eats up around 30% of the government’s budget. Sri Lanka's exports and economy have been propped up by specia...

A number of Pakistani economists and newspaper columnists are fretting about what they call "Pakistan's Debt Crisis". They claim that Pakistan's national debt has risen dramatically over the last 8 year. Putting in perspective, it seems to me that they are raising an unnecessary alarm. While it is true that Pakistan's total external debt has increased by about 10% since 1999, it is also true that Pakistan's GDP has more than doubled. Here are the facts: In 1999 Pakistan’s total debt as percentage of GDP was the highest in South Asia – 99.3 percent of its GDP and 629 percent of its revenue receipts, compared to Sri Lanka (91.1% & 528.3% respectively in 1998) and India (47.2% & 384.9% respectively in 1998). Internal Debt of Pakistan in 1999 was 45.6 per cent of GDP and 289.1 per cent of its revenue receipts, as compared to Sri Lanka (45.7% & 264.8% respectively in 1998) and India (44.0% & 358.4% respectively in 1998). Most recent figures in 2007 ...