South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan has outranked India yet again on the  World Happiness Index , making Indians very very unhappy. Indian media commentators' strong negative emotional reaction to their nation's poor ranking  betrays how unhappy they are even as they insist they are happier than their neighbors. Coming from the privileged upper castes, these commentators call the report " absurd ", citing India's higher per capita incomes and its space program. They seem detached from the real conditions in which the vast majority of Indians find themselves. They fail to acknowledge the high levels of  inequality  and  unemployment  prevalent in their country. A  CNBC  report last year found that one billion Indians have a per capita income of just $1,000 a year, lower than that of sub-Saharan Africans. 92.5% of Indians live in conditions similar to or worse than those experienced by the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. No wonder India ranks alongside the poorest su...

Pakistan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), jointly launched by Habib Bank (HBL) and S&P Global, is showing sustained growth in manufacturing for the last several months.  It has been consistently above 50, indicating expansion. This indicator disagrees with contraction reported by Pakistan Bureau and Statistics (PBS) Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) indicator. What accounts for this discrepancy? Is it because the LSM tracks only a subset of industries tracked by PMI? Is there a difference in methodology?  Pakistan PMI Trend. Source: S&P Global Here's one plausible explanation offered by analyst Humaira Qamar at HBL: "As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Large scale manufacturing (LSM) contracted 1.8% in the latter half of 2024. However, excluding the hefty decline in the low-weight furniture segment, LSM trended positively. Our PMI release suggests that the recovery has extended into 2025, with demand-side conditions taking cue from a sharp reduction in the policy r...

"We are in Zelenskyy’s shoes now", read a recent  headline  in a major Indian newspaper. There are similar concerns being raised in other world capitals in Asia and Europe after President Donald Trump's decisions to cut military supplies and stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine following a White House summit with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine who is facing the military might of Russia on the battlefield in Europe.     From L to R: Putin, Trump, Xi and Modi “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” said Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-elect. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said the  US has “changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent”. The events of last week have revived the memory of a quote attributed to former US Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger who is reported to have said: "The word will go...

A Pakistani astronaut is scheduled to be the first non-Chinese person to go to Tiangong, the Chinese Space Station, according to media reports. Last year, China put a Pakistani satellite ICUBE-Q aboard its historic Chiang’e 6 mission into the moon’s orbit, designed to retrieve samples from the little explored far side of the moon. Weeks later, Beijing put another Pakistani communication satellite into orbit. The two sides have also announced that China’s Chang’e 8 moon lander mission in 2028 will carry a Pakistani rover to explore the moon's surface.  Space science is a lot more than rocket science. It goes well beyond building booster rockets for satellite launches. It includes various fields like physics, astronomy, biology, chemistry, and engineering to study phenomena in space and collect and analyze data about activities on earth.  Pakistan-China space cooperation is yet another confirmation of the close and growing scientific ties between the two countries. Tens of...

Last week I attended a Silicon Valley fundraiser by  iCodeGuru , a Pakistani-American group focusing on arranging training and guiding young men and women from underprivileged backgrounds to get full scholarships for advanced STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) degrees at universities in America. The well-attended event held at Chandni restaurant raised over $180,000. It featured  iCodeGruru alumni  who shared their success stories.  iCodeGuru Alumna Afsheen Ghuman Speaking at Silicon Valley Fundraiser.  The story of Afsheen Ghuman from Gujranwala shows how a poor girl from a small town can succeed in defying the odds with a little help from iCodeGuru team headed by Dr. Zafar Shahid. She was able to take advantage of the online platform remotely from her home.  She is now studying at an American university with a fully funded scholarship. iCodeGuru uses its online platform to offer advice, training and financial assistance to get advanc...

During the last Trump Administration in 2019, India's friends in Washington argued for a US policy of " strategic altruism " with India. The new Trump administration seems to be rejecting such talk. Prior to his recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House, President Donald Trump described India as the "worst abuser of tariffs" and announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian imports to the United States.  At the same time, Mr. Trump cracked down on both legal and illegal immigration from India. His administration is deporting thousands of illegal Indian immigrants in  handcuffs and shackles  on US military aircraft. Meanwhile,  stringent new regulations  on temporary work visas could significantly delay visa processing times and reduce the number of Indian workers employed in the United States on H1B visas.  Tariffs Comparison. Source: BBC In a 2019 piece titled "The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in A...

Admiral Naveed Ashraf, Pakistan Navy Chief, spoke of his vision for "indigenization and modernization" of his branch of the Pakistani military on the eve of multinational AMAN 2025 naval exercises. Biennial AMAN Exercise and Dialogue this year attracted 60 nations from Australia to Zimbabwe (A to Z). China, the United States, Turkey and Japan were among the countries which participated in it.  Some of the AMAN 2025 Participants in Karachi, Pakistan Pakistan has a 1,000 kilometers long coastline on the Arabian Sea with maritime sovereignty over 200 nautical miles deep Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and 150 nautical miles of Continental Shelf. This adds 290,000 square kilometers of sea or about 36% of the country's land area open for tapping vast resources in it. Pakistan's " Blue Economy " in this extended economic zone includes seafood and energy resources as well as international trade connectivity with the rest of the world. It offers opportunities for wat...

A US Air Force transport plane landed in India today with 104 illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles, according to media reports. Speaking with reporters, a deportee said: “For 40 hours, we were handcuffed, our feet tied with chains and were not allowed to move an inch from our seats. After repeated requests, we were allowed to drag ourselves to the washroom. The crew would open the door of the lavatory and shove us in.” Illegal Indian Immigrants Deported in Handcuffs and Chains. Source: News18 The inhumane treatment meted out to citizens of  India , a US ally, has sparked a lot of anger against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. The critics are citing the example of Colombia, a small South American nation, whose president protested similar treatment of its citizens by the Trump administration. Colombian President Gustavo Petro turned back the US military planes carrying deportees and then sent his own aircraft to transport them back home in Colombia.  Ill...

Recent launch of  DeepSeek AI model  has brought to light the large and growing AI talent in China. The researchers working for the Chinese startup have shown that human creativity and problem-solving skills can overcome limitations such as access to high-performance hardware. It confirms that the most important resource needed for breakthroughs in AI is the human resource.  The people of Chinese PRC origin account for 47% of the top 20% AI talent in the world based on undergraduate degree, according to a survey.  Americans make up 18%, Europeans 12% and Indians 5% of the global AI researchers. In terms of the countries they serve, 57% of them work in the United States, 12% in China, 8% in the UK, 4% each in France and Germany and 3% in Canada as of 2022. While the US still has the lion's share of the top talent, its share has declined from 65% in 2019 to 57% in 2022. Marco Polo talent tracker lists Pakistan among a dozen countries for top AI talent in Asia.  To...

A Chinese Lab has sparked panic in Silicon Valley with the release of its first AI model that can outperform America's best despite being built more cheaply and with less-powerful chips, according to the US media reports. The lab called  DeepSeek  has recently unveiled a free, open-source large-language model (LLM) that it says took only two months and $5.5 million million to build, using reduced-capability chips from Nvidia called H800s. By comparison, the US-based OpenAI's closed LLM model cost $100 million to develop and train using the most advanced H100 chips from Nvidia. Open-source and free DeepSeek models can significantly help developing nations like Pakistan by providing affordable access to the latest AI technology, allowing them to develop solutions tailored to their specific needs without high costs.  DeepSeek, a small startup lab in China, has accomplished this feat despite the US technology export controls to slow down China's AI efforts. Former Google...

Pakistan has unveiled its PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program as a significant upgrade to its JF-17 joint program with China. The new upgrade will have a number of stealth features ranging from the use of radar-absorbing composite materials and diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI) to internal weapons bay (IWB) which will significantly reduce the aircraft's radar signature. It is targeted for completion by the end of this decade. In addition, the PFX's twin-engine design will improve maneuverability and allow greater payload capacity.  Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda The program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen the domestic  defense industry . Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. It is not just about the PAF modernization but also about positioning Pakistan as an imp...

The Pakistan government is preparing to license three low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellite operators for space communication services in the country, according to media reports. The companies whose applications are pending include London-based OneWeb, China's Shanghai Spacecom and US headquartered Starlink.  They operate tens of thousands of small mass-produced satellites in low orbits that communicate with designated (mobile and stationary) ground stations.  Each LEO satellite circles the earth in 128 minutes or less. The critical importance of the services they offer has recently become apparent in the Ukraine War being waged in Europe and the ongoing disaster response in the areas devastated by the California wildfires. Such services are essential for any area, remote or otherwise, where the land-based infrastructure either does not exist or it has been destroyed by war or natural disasters. Representation of low, medium and geosynchronous orbits. Source: MIT Pakistan has establ...