South Asia Investor Review

Commenting on Ukraine, Russian analyst   Alexey Kupriyanov  told Indian journalist Nirupama Subramanian: "For us, Ukraine is the same as Pakistan for India ". What he failed to mention is that Pakistan has developed and retains its  nuclear arsenal  while Ukraine gave up its nukes in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union. Many Ukrainians now regret this decision. Ukrainians know that no country with nuclear weapons has ever been physically invaded by a foreign military. They now understand the proven effectiveness of nuclear deterrence.  They realize that all the talk about "rules-based order" is just empty rhetoric. The reality is the Law of the Jungle where the strong prey on the weak. The US military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that Washington is just as guilty of violating the "rules-based order" as Moscow.  Ukraine Gave Up Nukes in 1990s. Source: Utica Phoenix Denuclearization of Ukraine: When Ukraine became independen...

Forensic audit of Nawaz Sharif family's assets has put its value at $820.8 Million, according to Broadsheet Award ordered by arbitrator Sir Anthony Evans. It was disclosed in documents released by Broadsheet LLC and Pakistan government. The forensic audit was conducted by Stroz Friedberg audit firm based in the  United Kingdom . It was hired by Facebook to conduct forensic audit of Cambridge Analytica, the analytics firm used by US President Donald Trump during the 2016 election. Broadsheet Arbitration Award  Broadsheet LLC, incorporated in the Isle of Mann, was hired by Pakistan National Accountability Bureau (Bureau) in Year 2000 to uncover overseas assets hidden by over 200 Pakistanis including former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. Pakistan was forced to go into arbitration for breach of contract with the firm.  Here are the key excerpts of the final award dated December 17, 2018: "Stroz Friedberg was instructed to carry out a ‘forensic audit’ (or ‘invento...

The role of money in elections and politics is generally known and understood around the world. Pakistan is no exception. In a recent book entitled "The Bhutto Dynasty" written by veteran British journalist Owen Bennet Jones, the author describes how former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto saw " kickbacks " as an essential part of politics. Jones says that  the "amnesty she (Benazir Bhutto) secured from General Musharraf scuppered a  Swiss trial  in which there was a very high chance she would have been convicted of, among other things, using money from bribes to buy a necklace worth $175,000".  The Bhutto Dynasty: Owen Bennet Jones has described in some detail how Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his daughter Benazir Bhutto saw the role of money in Pakistani politics. Here's an excerpt of Benazir's candid admission that "kickbacks must be taken": "In a surprisingly unguarded interview with the American Academy of Achievement in 2000 she (Benaz...

Feverish spinning by pro-Opposition media spinmeisters suggests that BBC's Hard Talk host Stephen Sackur has done serious damage to the Pakistani Opposition's narrative about the Army and democracy in the country. By his aggressive questioning of Ishaq Dar, former Finance Minister and  former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's close associate, Sackur has not only dismantled the Opposition parties' narrative but also clearly established that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is a convicted criminal and a hypocrite.  Opposition Narrative: Ex finance minister Ishaq Dar presented the Opposition narrative focusing on Pakistani "military's interference" in domestic politics, "rigged" 2018 elections and "selected"  Prime Minister Imran Khan. BBC Hard Talk host Stephen Sackur challenged this narrative and questioned the credibility of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Ishaq Dar.  Here are a few snippets of the conversation:  Sackur: It is qui...

"Believe me when I tell you that my heart is with you. I appreciate and would even privately agree with what you're advising us to do (abandon nuclear tests)", said Pakistan's Ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to US  Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott on May 16, 1998 The order to conduct  Pakistan's nuclear tests  came from Mr. Nawaz Sharif who was Pakistan's prime minister in 1998. It came on May 28, just over two weeks after India's nuclear tests conducted May 11 to May 13, 1998. Pakistan went ahead with the tests in spite of the US pressure to abstain from testing.  US President Bill Clinton called Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif immediately after the Indian tests to urge restraint.  It was followed up by Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott's visit to Islamabad on May 16, 1998. In his 2010 book titled " Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Bomb ", Secretary Talbott has described US diplomatic efforts to dissuade Pakista...

What will be the impact of tragic terror attacks with mass casualties on Pakistan's July 25, 2018  general elections ? How does the current situation compare with the situation in 2013 elections? Will the elections proceed as scheduled? Pakistan Elections 2018 Forecast by  Intermarket and Exotix Investment Firms Which party is likely to get the most votes and parliamentary seats in Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? Will one party get a clear majority? Who will form the new government? Is PTI Chief Imran Khan likely to be the next prime minister of Pakistan? Will it be a coalition government? How can a weak coalition government implement a radical reform agenda proposed by Imran Khan? Why did former prime minister of Pakistan Mr.  Nawaz Sharif , convicted recently by a Pakistani court on charges of having assets beyond income, come back to Lahore to face certain arrest? What is his strategy? What is Nawaz Sharif's future in Pakistani politics after ...

Guest Post by Rashid Ahmad. My thoughts on Nawaz Sharif (NS) verdict: 1. This decision, like all major decisions that involve national level politicians, will remain controversial as the people will look at this decision from their own perspectives. To Anti-NS folks he was guilty before the trial began, and it does not matter on which charge he is convicted, as long as he is knocked out. For those who support  Nawaz Sharif , he would never be guilty even if he is caught red handed. 2. The conviction was a foregone conclusion. It may be selective justice but the real reason was the accountability court, working under direct supervision of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, which, to many people, is not a neutral arbiter any more, but the “REAL PROSECUTOR”.  It is selective application of the law. 3. Although not comparing, this kind of motivated convictions are not uncommon. Pakistan’s illustrious judiciary has to its “credit” many infamous decisions: Doctrine of necessit...

British National Crime Agency (NCA) has identified  Pakistan , Nigeria and Russia as the top source countries for money laundering in the United Kingdom, according to  British media reports . The NCA report says the UK is a prime destination for foreign corrupt and politically exposed people (politicians and their families) to launder money. NCA Report Highlights: In its annual assessment of serious and organized crime, the NCA says: “Investment in UK property, particularly in London, continues to be an attractive mechanism to launder funds....As the UK moves towards exiting the EU in March 2019, UK-based businesses may look to increase the amount of trade they have with non-EU countries....We judge this will increase the likelihood that UK businesses will come into contact with corrupt markets, particularly in the developing world, raising the risk they will be drawn into corrupt practices.” Here are some of the key excerpts of the UK  NCA report  titled...

The last five years of Pakistan's outgoing government of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) have seen the revival of Pakistan's economy and completion of many long delayed infrastructure and energy projects. Mr. Nawaz Sharif deserves full credit for it.  At the same time, the PML government is responsible for slow progress on human development indicators, major decline in exports, growing twin deficits of budget and external accounts, mounting public debt and lack of transparency in financial matters.  It is the lack of transparency that has been brought in sharp focus with the removal of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif by the nation's Supreme Court in the aftermath of Panama Papers. The leak of these papers revealed his family's ownership of  undeclared and unexplained substantial  assets  abroad. Terrorism Toll in Pakistan. Source: SATP.org Highlights: Pakistan achieved 5.8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2017-18, the highest in the l...

Why is the violence in Afghanistan intensifying? Why has US-NATO coalition dropped more bombs in Afghanistan in Jan-March 2018 quarter than in any other 3 month period in the last 15 years? Is it in response to the Taliban annual spring offensive? Or the Daish (ISIS) contributing to more killings? Is the  Trump administration  too busy with the military option and paying too little attention to any diplomatic initiatives to end the war in Afghanistan? Will the appointment of Michael Pompeo as US secretary of state make a difference? Terrorism Toll in Pakistan. Source: SATP.org Why are the Hazara killings continuing in Quetta? What can the Pakistani state and the military do to provide relief to the Hazara community? Beyond the the focus on security, what else can and should be done to reduce ethnic and sectarian hatred in Pakistani society in general? What kind of social and educational initiatives are needed to quell such violence? What role must the politicians play to...