South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the West. This unqualified western support began with the  Gaza genocide  and culminated in the launch of joint US-Israeli assault on Iran in February this year.   The entire Middle East region and the Islamic world has helplessly witnessed as the Israeli military butchered innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon and threatened to expand the war to the entire region. Some Israeli politicians issued warnings to Turkey and Pakistan. During this period, the West not only failed to restrain Israe...

Pakistan has long sought to  balance  its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the " Cold War " and the " War on Terror ". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.  Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan In a piece titled " Pakistan's Great Game ", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote ...

On July 16 in Shanghai, 29 countries, including China, Pakistan and Russia, signed the founding agreement of WAICO, World AI Cooperation Organization.  Every BRICS founding member is in, except India. This agreement follows the launch of the US-led Pax Silica, a 24-member coalition, including  India , which is designed to counter China's AI efforts. The stated goal of both these competing groups is to provide global governance, including building guardrails and setting standards, for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.  US-China AI Competition The announcement of WAICO coincided with the launch of Kimi K3 by  Chinese  startup Moonshot AI.  Kimi K3 is the largest open-weight AI model ever built, its full weights free for the world to download from July 27.  Cheaper open-source AI models like Kimi K3 pose a serious threat to U.S. proprietary models. By offering 80-90% of the capability at a fraction of the cost or for free, they are squeezing the ...

As the war enters 12th day, both the Israeli and the US militaries are using AI to accelerate decision-making, analyzing vast amounts of intelligence data for generating targets, and optimizing logistics, shifting toward AI-enabled command structures to maintain battlefield superiority. Almost all major US AI data center operators have signed contracts to provide AI tools and services to both the Pentagon and the IDF. This arrangement has not gone unnoticed by the Iranians who are now targeting  AI data centers  in the Middle East.  Data Centers in Gulf States. Source: Bloomberg Last week, three data centers operated by AmazonWeb Services (AWS), two in the United Arab Emirates and one in Bahrain, were struck by Iranian drones or missiles. The attacks forced the facilities offline and led to service outages affecting banking, payments, delivery apps, and enterprise software across the region, according to a  Fortune  magazine report.  The U.S. military uses ...

The US State Department has suspended processing of immigrant visas from 75 countries, including Pakistan but not India. This action followed President Donald Trump's social media post that listed, without context, the percentage of immigrant households from these countries that rely on the US government financial assistance. While Mr. Trump’s post singled out immigrants, the fact is that the term “financial assistance” as used by him includes social security and Medicare payments which are entitlements received by all senior citizens, both naturalized and US-born. It listed immigrant households from Bhutan (81.4%), Yemen Arab Republic (75.2%) and Somalia (71.9%) as the top three "Welfare Recipients". It also included Afghanistan (68.1%), Burma (59.2%), Bangladesh (54.8%), Pakistan (40.2%) and China (32.9%). India was not shown on this list.  A US State Department statement explained the decision to suspend immigrant visa processing as follows:  "President Trump has...

The F-1 visas for Pakistani students are soaring amid a global decline, according to the US government data. The US visas granted to Pakistani students climbed 44.3% in the first half of Fiscal Year 2025 (October 2024 to March 2025) with warming relations between the governments of the two countries. The number of visas granted to Indian students declined 44.5%, compared to  20% fewer US visas given to students globally in this period.  The number of US visas granted to Pakistani students in the current year is on track to reach 5,800 which will be an all-time high.   F-1 Student Visa Trend For Pakistan 2018-2025. Source: ApplyBoard In Pakistan, 3,322 F-1 student visas were granted in fiscal year 2023. The number of F-1 visas issued in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was 1,928, an increase of 44.3% compared to the same period in the previous year. While the final numbers for fiscal year 2025 are not yet complete, Pakistan is on track to issue a high numb...

"We are not proxies for India in the US", wrote Suhag Shukla, co-founder and executive director of the Hindu American Foundation (HAF) in a recent article for  The Print , an Indian media outlet.  This was written in response to Indian diplomat-politician Shashi Tharoor's criticism that the Indian-American diaspora was largely silent on the Trump administration policies hurting India.  After a meeting with a US congressional delegation in September 2025, Tharoor had questioned why the Indian diaspora appeared apathetic to US policies affecting India, including H-1B visa fees and tariffs. Suhag Shukla (L) and Shashi Tharoor The HAF is seen by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's critics and human rights advocates as an American proxy for the Hindutva movement and its Hindu Supremacist ideology. HAF spun off in 2003 from the American branch of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), an organization with ties to anti-Muslim violence in India. HAF co-founder Mihir Meghani published a...

The United States is the biggest export market for India. Among its top 5 trading partners, the US is also the only country with which India runs a trade surplus. This surplus is now at risk with the 50% tariff recently imposed by President Donald Trump on imports from India. Can Prime Minister Narendra make up for it by cozying up to China and Russia ? Recent trade data shows he can't.  While India has enjoyed a significant surplus in trade with the US,  the South Asian nation has been running large trade deficits with China and Russia. Last year, for example, India had a $100 billion trade deficit with China and a $62 billion deficit with Russia. On the other hand, India ran over a $40 billion trade surplus with the US. Given these figures, it's hard to understand what India hopes to achieve by getting closer to Beijing and Moscow. The fact is that the US is the world's biggest economy that offers the largest and most profitable export market for most countries. Loss of t...

Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US strategy has been to woo India and to build it up as a counterweight to rising China in the Indo-Pacific region. Most beltway analysts agree with this policy. However, the current Trump administration has taken significant actions, such as the imposition of 50% tariffs on India's exports to the US, that appear to defy this conventional wisdom widely shared in the West. Does President Trump have a grand strategy guiding these actions?  George Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, believes the answer is Yes.  George Friedman George Friedman is an American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He writes about international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor In a recent  podcast , Friedman said "India is not an essential country from the American standpoint". "They (Indians) are a useful al...

Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be shedding his Hindutva arrogance. He is reaching out to China after President Donald Trump and several top US administration officials have openly and repeatedly targeted  India for harsh criticism  over the purchase of Russian oil. Top American officials have accused India, particularly the billionaire friends of Mr. Modi, of “profiteering” from the Russian oil trade. While welcoming India’s outreach, the Chinese have indicated they expect New Delhi to stop covert aid to militant groups attacking Chinese interests in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong in New Delhi recently told his Indian audiences that “Pakistan is a victim of terrorism”. Also, the United States has recently labeled the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and its affiliated the Majeed Brigade as “international terrorists”. Majeed Brigade claimed responsibility for hijacking of the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan and murdering 31 people in cold blood in M...

The Indian government has hired Jason Miller, a former Trump aide, to lobby for India in Washington, DC for a monthly sum of $150,000 per month. Pakistan has retained Keith Schiller, also a former Trump aide, for a monthly compensation of $50,000 to help Pakistan get favorable treatment by the Trump Administration. It shows that India is outspending Pakistan by 3 to 1 on lobbying in Washington, but it does not appear to be paying off for New Delhi.  Singh's X message said: "Pakistan is paying $50,000 a month to their lobbyist in DC, while India is paying $150,000. Perhaps the lobbyists don't count. It is what Trump think and does that matters, and his personal equation with the leaders of the countries". He also shared a photo of a Times of India report by Chidanand Rajghatta.   Jason Miller served as spokesman for the 2016 Trump Presidential Campaign and the Trump Transition Team. Keith Schiller worked as Deputy Assistant to President Trump and Director of Oval Off...

President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India's exports to the United States. This is far higher than most countries facing US tariffs. Explaining the punitive India tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: "India came to the table early. They’ve been slow rolling things. So I think that the president, the whole trade team has been frustrated with them. And also, you know, India, India has been a large buyer of sanctioned Russian oil that they then resell as refined products. So, you know, they have not been a great global actor".  Indian Cartoonist Satish Acharya on Trump-Modi Dialog. Source: Satish Acharya Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has been signaling his intent to apply  tariffs  on India's exports repeatedly. Trump has been singling out India as a country with the highest tariffs it applies on exports from the US.  Indian cartoonist Satish Acharya published a caricature of Modi-Trump conversation portraying Modi's ...