South Asia Investor Review

A study by researchers at a Singapore University predicts that the current  coronavirus pandemic  will end in the months of May and June. Specifically, the researchers forecast that 97% of the pandemic will end around May 11 in the United States, May 21 in India and June 8 in Pakistan. Pakistan Coronavirus Case Curve. Source: Singapore University Singapore Pandemic Model: The authors of the  Singapore study  argue that, like other past pandemics, the current covid19 pandemic will follow a bell curve, essentially "a life cycle pattern from the outbreak to the acceleration phase, inflection point, deacceleration phase and eventual stop or ending". Here's an excerpt of the Singapore paper published by Jianxi Luo: "Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem. However, the pandemic lif...

Covid19  pandemic  has brought the world to its knees. It has humbled some of the most powerful nations on earth. It has paralyzed the global economy. It is believed to have started in China, the newest superpower. Coronavirus has so far  infected  nearly 3 million people globally. It has ravaged the United States, the reigning superpower, as well as its rich and powerful allies in Western Europe.  The United States leads the world with a million infections so far and over 50,000 deaths. It has not spared developing nations like Iran and Turkey either. And it is now threatening to spread to the rest of the developing world in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Coronavirus has so far infected nearly 12,000 and killed 253 people in  Pakistan . This pandemic is a reminder to all that lethal pathogens are a huge common threat to all of humanity. Recently, I participated in a wide ranging discussion on coronavirus’ origins, impact, conspiracy theories, ...

Preliminary results of a US Government study reveal that the sunlight quickly destroys COVID19, the novel coronavirus. The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions, according to Yahoo News. This latest work reinforces the conclusions of  "Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?" , a recent paper written jointly by Pakistani and Indian researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ultraviolet (UV) light, a component of sunlight, has long been known to be an effective disinfectant. Homeland Security Study:  The  study by US Department of Homeland Security  scientists concludes that “sunlight destroys the virus quickly” but it also warns that enclosed areas with low humidity, such as airplane cabins, “may require additional care to minimize risk of transmission. ”Simulated sunlight “rapidly killed the virus in aerosols,” the study says, while with...

Mainstream western and Indian media have widely covered a recent  MIT paper  by a  Pakistani-American  scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on the effects of heat and humidity on  coronavirus pandemic .  Dr. Qasim Bukhari , the lead author, is an alumnus of  NED University  located in Karachi, Pakistan. Dr. Yusuf Jamil, the paper's coauthor, is Indian-American originally from Kolkata, West Bengal. The paper is posted on Social Science and Research Network (SSRN). It has been mentioned in reports by New York Times, Washington Post, Time, Forbes, Times of India, The Hindu, India Today and many other publications. The paper shows that 90% of the coronavirus (COVID19 or 2019-nCoV) cases so far have occurred  in regions with absolute humidity between 4 and 10 grams per cubic meter. One possible reason is that the fatty outer layer of the virus has trouble surviving in high heat and humidity. The virus disintegrates when the fat...

An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the (Covid-19) virus’s transmission, says a study published on March 10, 2020 by Chinese researchers. In an earlier 2009 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers had found that high absolute  humidity can help kill flu virus  particles in a given environment. A team of Chinese researchers unveiled the results of their study last week that looked at how temperature and humidity may affect the  transmission of COVID-19 , the illness caused by the new coronavirus. It showed that coronavirus transmission rates decline with increased temperatures and humidity. This may explain why there appear to be few reports of local COVID-19 transmissions in places like Pakistan. Most of the known coronavirus cases in Pakistan appear to be those of the people who have come into the country from cold, dry places like northern Iran where the pandemic is ra...

Over 1,800 people have so far died as a result of a severe heatwave sweeping across India, according to government officials and  media reports . The highest death toll is in southern India with  1,700 heat-related deaths in the worst-hit states  of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, where temperatures rose above 45C (113F). Other parts of the country have been hit by high temperatures ranging between 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit) and 46 degrees Celsius (115 degrees Fahrenheit) with 43 heat deaths reported in the eastern state of Orissa, 12 in West Bengal and 7 in the Ahmedabad city in the western state of Gujarat, according to state officials. Most of the deaths were caused by heat stroke and dehydration. Pakistan and Afghanistan are also hot with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, but India is suffering far worse, due in part to its many densely populated areas, according to a  CNN report . As expected, India has blamed Pakistan for hea...