South Asia Investor Review

A snap poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan on April 3 and 4 shows broad support for Prime Minister  Imran Khan 's decision to seek dissolution of the National Assembly and call fresh elections.  Support for the decision is nationwide with 66% in Punjab, 69% in Sindh and 78% in KPK province. It is the strongest among those identifying themselves as PTI voters with 95% of them approving the decision. Among the Opposition parties, 44% of PMLN voters and 50% of PPP voters agree with the decision.   Source: Gallup Pakistan Here are the key findings of the  Gallup Pakistan Poll :  1) Widespread support for dissolution of National Assembly in Pakistan Respondents were asked ‘ PM has dissolved the national assembly and called for fresh elections. Do you Support or are you against this’ To this question a wide majority 68% say they support and 32% say they oppose PM Imran Khan’s move. Source: Gallup Pakistan 2) Majority don’t believe in US Conspiracy to remove Imran K...

Prominent Pakistani journalist and political analyst Najam Sethi, a strong critic of Prime Minister Imran Khan, sees desperation among the Pakistani Democratic Movement (PDM) leaders. In a recent interview with well-known journalists Raza Rumi and Murtaza Solangi on  Naya Daur  social media channel, Sethi said the Pakistani opposition, particularly PMLN, believe it is "now or never" for them.   PDM Leadership L to R: Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Maryam Nawaz Najam Sethi added that if the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government led by Prime Minister Khan survives the current 5 year term and succeeds in stabilizing the nation's economy,  the ruling party will be re-elected for another 5 year term in 2023 with the support of what Sethi calls "Miltablishment" (a euphemism for Pakistani military). This, Sethi said, would mean that the PMLN would break up and lose its relevance. Sethi acknowledges there is genuine support for PTI in spite of Imran Khan g...

Former Prime Minister Mr. Nawaz Sharif has alleged that the Pakistan Army Chief and the ISI leader orchestrated his conviction on corruption charges and his subsequent ouster. In a clear departure from prior allegations against "the establishment", Mr. Sharif has named names of the chiefs of the Army and the ISI in his anti-military address over the telephone from London to a joint opposition rally in Gujranwala. Where does he go from here? Is he following in the footsteps of MQM founder Altaf Husain? Has Sharif given up on any hope of returning to claim power in Pakistan? Is the end of his political career for all practical purposes?  Pakistan's two major political parties PMLN and PPP have joined Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) as the joint opposition movement under Maulana Fazlur Rehman go from here. In a show of strength, PDM has held two big political parties in Gujranwala and Karachi. Their objective is to force Prime Minister Imran Khan's resignation, follow...

Why are Pakistan media groups laying off employees and shutting down TV channels? Is it caused by Pakistan government cutbacks in advertising? Is it part of the PTI government's alleged efforts to censor media? Or part of the long overdue  industry shake-out  after almost two decades long un-interrupted media business expansion? Pakistan Ad Spending. Source: Aurora/Dawn How much was the Nawaz Sharif led PMLN government spending on  advertising ? Did Nawaz Sharif and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi increase media advertising budgets to buy favorable coverage at taxpayers' expense? Are Pakistan government and national security establishment unique in wanting to  manage media  coverage? Do Western government manage media as well? If so, how? How do their media management techniques differ? Global Advertising Growth 2016. Source: Magna What is the future of media in Pakistan as the Internet penetration grows dramatically with 1-2 million more people comi...

Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) Chief Imran Khan became Pakistan's 22nd prime minister after his 22-year-long quest for the highest executive office in the land. What is the historic significance of this event for Pakistan's democracy? Has it finally ended the three-decade-long  dynastic duopoly  of the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan People's Party which are controlled by Sharifs and Bhuttos? Will the emergence of the PTI as the 3rd political force likely reduce corruption and improve governance in Pakistan? Is Imran Khan's nomination of Sardar Usman Buzdar as Punjab Chief Minister a mistake? Will Prime Minister Imran Khan make mistakes as he begins his tenure? Will his opponents jump at every opportunity to attack him when he makes mistakes? Should he be allowed to make mistakes as he learns on the job? Is he entitled to a honeymoon period?  Do the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies call all the shots in Pakistan? Is the  military's role ...

What will be the impact of tragic terror attacks with mass casualties on Pakistan's July 25, 2018  general elections ? How does the current situation compare with the situation in 2013 elections? Will the elections proceed as scheduled? Pakistan Elections 2018 Forecast by  Intermarket and Exotix Investment Firms Which party is likely to get the most votes and parliamentary seats in Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? Will one party get a clear majority? Who will form the new government? Is PTI Chief Imran Khan likely to be the next prime minister of Pakistan? Will it be a coalition government? How can a weak coalition government implement a radical reform agenda proposed by Imran Khan? Why did former prime minister of Pakistan Mr.  Nawaz Sharif , convicted recently by a Pakistani court on charges of having assets beyond income, come back to Lahore to face certain arrest? What is his strategy? What is Nawaz Sharif's future in Pakistani politics after ...

The last five years of Pakistan's outgoing government of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) have seen the revival of Pakistan's economy and completion of many long delayed infrastructure and energy projects. Mr. Nawaz Sharif deserves full credit for it.  At the same time, the PML government is responsible for slow progress on human development indicators, major decline in exports, growing twin deficits of budget and external accounts, mounting public debt and lack of transparency in financial matters.  It is the lack of transparency that has been brought in sharp focus with the removal of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif by the nation's Supreme Court in the aftermath of Panama Papers. The leak of these papers revealed his family's ownership of  undeclared and unexplained substantial  assets  abroad. Terrorism Toll in Pakistan. Source: SATP.org Highlights: Pakistan achieved 5.8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2017-18, the highest in the l...

Why is the violence in Afghanistan intensifying? Why has US-NATO coalition dropped more bombs in Afghanistan in Jan-March 2018 quarter than in any other 3 month period in the last 15 years? Is it in response to the Taliban annual spring offensive? Or the Daish (ISIS) contributing to more killings? Is the  Trump administration  too busy with the military option and paying too little attention to any diplomatic initiatives to end the war in Afghanistan? Will the appointment of Michael Pompeo as US secretary of state make a difference? Terrorism Toll in Pakistan. Source: SATP.org Why are the Hazara killings continuing in Quetta? What can the Pakistani state and the military do to provide relief to the Hazara community? Beyond the the focus on security, what else can and should be done to reduce ethnic and sectarian hatred in Pakistani society in general? What kind of social and educational initiatives are needed to quell such violence? What role must the politicians play to...

Who's Pakistan's New PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi elected after Nawaz Sharif's disqualification ? What's his background? Is he just a temporary seat-warmer until another Sharif becomes PM? Will he able to make a difference? Will he be able to act independently of the Sharif family's power and influence? What is the future of Nawaz Sharif and his immediate family? Will NAB pursue charges against them? Will PMLN survive? Politicians Dominate Off-shore Company Owners in Panama Leaks   What is the proposed Cotton-Perdue RAISE (Reform American Immigration for Strong Economy) Act backed by President Donald J. Trump ? Will it reverse the diversity of immigrants put in place by the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 (also known as Hart-Celler Act) that was pushed by Sen Edward Kennedy and signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson? Is it a racist act insisting on immigrants being able to speak English when they first enter the United States? Will it significantly reduce ...

Why did President Trump pull the United States out of the Paris Climate Deal? How will this impact the United States and the world? Can US still lead on matters related to energy? Will China and Europe pick up the mantle of world leadership on climate change and clean energy? Will US growing isolation cost American jobs? Why has India's GDP growth slowed to 6.1% in Jan-March 2017 from 7.1% earlier? Is it the result of demonetization ? Why has bank credit growth declined to just 5%, the slowest in 60 years? Is the growth in non-performing loans taking a toll on new lending by ailing public sector banks? How will it affect job growth in India? Who is responsible for the massive Kabul blast that caused tragic loss of 100 lives? Did the Haqqanis do it ? Why is the Afghan intelligence blaming it on Pakistan? How will the United States deal with the deteriorating situation after 16 years of war in Afghanistan? Will the Taliban accept talking with the Afghan and US representatives?...

What are the implications of the split Pakistan Supreme Court verdict recently announced in Panama Case filed against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif by PTI Chief Imran Khan, JI Chief Siraj ul Haq and AML chief Shaikh Rasheed? Why did 3 out of 5 judges not vote to disqualify Mr. Sharif from holding office under Articles 62 and 63 of the Pakistan constitution? Has the Prime Minister not committed perjury, a felony in Pakistani law, by offering multiple conflicting explanations for the source of funds used to buy London flats? Does the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) appointed by the Supreme Court have the independence and the skill set to find credible evidence of wrongdoing by Mr. Sharif? Will Nawaz Sharif survive the JIT and serve out his term scheduled to end in mid-2018? Why has President Donald J. Trump tightened H1B temporary work visa requirements with an executive order calling for "Buy American, Hire American"? How will it impact India, the biggest beneficiary of th...

“Na Khuda hi mila, na visaal-e-sanam/Na udhar kay rahay, na idhar kay rahe (I found neither faith, nor union with my lover/And now I belong neither there nor here).” Pakistan's quest for democracy under civilian rule has produced neither democracy nor development in the Islamic country of over 180 million people. Currently, Pakistan is experiencing 6th consecutive year of  stagnant economy and human development under an elected but highly corrupt "democratic" government run by the Sharif family and their cronies for their own benefit. Is it a Democracy? Can one call it a rule-of-law or democracy when the Sharifs illegally order the Lahore police to attack the home of Allama Tahir ul Qadri, kill over a dozen unarmed civilians including women, and then refuse to file a report  (FIR) of the incident at the local police station?  Can you call it constitutional rule when the ruling politicians openly defy the Supreme Court orders to hold local government elections un...