Can Pakistan's Small Nuclear Arsenal Survive India's First Strike?
Possession of nuclear weapons is considered "the ultimate deterrent" by eminent international geopolitical analysts like Professor John Mearsheimer of Chicago University. However, it appears that Mearsheimer has also raised questions about the survivability of a small land-based nuclear arsenal in the event of a first strike by a nuclear-armed adversary. Is this likely to tempt India to launch first strike against Pakistan's nuclear assets? Pakistan's Nuclear Triad In Mearsheimer's broader deterrence framework, small, land-based nuclear forces are inherently vulnerable to a disarming conventional or nuclear first strike. Because Pakistan’s arsenal is primarily land-based (alongside air-delivered systems), a major Indian military breakthrough or precision strike campaign could threaten the survivability of those weapons. This creates dangerous pressure on Islamabad to deploy or use its nuclear weapons early in a crisis rather than risk losing them. Pakistan's ...