South Asia Investor Review

Semi-arid Pakistan, with its farmlands predominantly  irrigated  by the world's largest contiguous canal system, has experienced an increasing amount of annual rains and floods for several years. Even the desert regions of the country, like the vast  Thar desert  straddling India-Pakistan border, have recently been turning green. Now a study has found that  "the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200%" by the end of the current century. The authors of this study published by  Advanced Earth and Space Science  conclude as follows: "While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region".  Annual Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Millimeters For 1979...

The United States Department of Agriculture ( USDA ) is forecasting bumper harvest of all major crops in Pakistan for 2023/24. Major crops in the country include wheat, rice, sugarcane, corn and cotton. These offer welcome relief for Pakistani farmers who suffered devastating losses in the epic  floods of 2022 .    Major Crops Produced in Pakistan. Source: USDA Pakistan is projected to produce 28 million tons of  wheat ,  10.5 million tons of corn (maize), 9 million tons of rice, 6.5 million bales of  cotton , 7.8 million tons of  sugar  and 540,000 tons of rapeseed (canola) in 2023/24. Each of these production figures is significantly higher than last year's, and higher than the last 5-year average (2018-22) for the country. Potato production jumped 50% to 7.74 million tons in 2022, according to PotatoBusiness .   Sugar Production in India and Pakistan. Source: Ragus Pakistan will still need to import wheat but a lower amount than last ...

Pakistan has received pledges of $10 billion worth of loans and grants to rebuild after devastating floods last year, according to  Bloomberg  News. The amount pledged exceeds the $8 billion that Pakistan sought at the United Nations Donors Conference that concluded today in Geneva, Switzerland. The massive floods affected 33 million people living on vast swathes of land in rural Sindh and Balochistan. The flood waters killed an estimated 1700 people and  millions of animals. The floods also washed away millions of acres of standing crops, tens of thousands of homes and thousands of kilometers of roads. The total flood damage is estimated at  $33 billion  in economic losses, and cost of rebuilding is estimated at $16.5 billion. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres attended in-person, while world leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan took part virtually.  UN Donors Con...

COP27, the United Nations climate summit,  opened in Egypt on Sunday with the addition of negotiations over funding to compensate nations for “loss and damage” as an official agenda item. Pakistan led the push for it with the support of 134 developing nations. Discussions at  COP26  in Scotland were mainly focused on funding "mitigation" and "adaptation", not compensation for "loss and damage".   Pakistan Pavilion at COP27 Conference in Sharm Al-Sheikh, Egypt The "loss and damage" agenda item was proposed by Pakistan during talks at Bonn after the country suffered heavy losses in unprecedented floods that hit a third of the country.  “My country, Pakistan, has seen floods that have left 33 million lives in tatters and have caused loss and damage amounting to 10% of the GDP,” said Ambassador Munir Akram, the 2022 chair of the G77—a group of 134 developing countries, at the opening session of COP27 at Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt.  Cumulative CO2 Emissio...

India ranks 107th for hunger among 121 nations. The nation fares worse than all of its South Asian neighbors except for war-torn Afghanistan ranked 109, according to the  Global Hunger Index 2022 . Sri Lanka ranks 64, Nepal 81, Bangladesh 84 and Pakistan 99.  India  and Pakistan have levels of hunger that are considered serious. Both have slipped on the hunger charts from 2021 when India was ranked 101 and Pakistan 92.  Seventeen countries, including Bosnia, China, Kuwait, Turkey and UAE, are collectively ranked between 1 and 17 for having a score of less than five. South Asia Hunger Rankings. Source: GHI/IASScore India’s child wasting rate (low weight for height), at 19.3%, is worse than the levels recorded in 2014 (15.1%) and even 2000 (17.15), and is the highest for any country in the world and drives up the region’s average owing to India’s large population, according to  The Hindu  newspaper. The child hunger situation has gotten worse since Mr. Narend...

Pakistan, a country that has contributed only 0.28% of the CO2 emissions, is among the biggest victims of climate change. The US, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the  catastrophic floods  in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the  New York Times .  Top 5 Current Polluters. Source: Our World in Data Currently, the biggest annual CO2 emitters are China, the US, India and Russia. Pakistan's annual CO2 emissions add up to just 235 million tons. On the other hand, China contributes 11.7 billion tons, the United States 4.5 billion tons, India 2.4 billion tons, Russia 1.6 billion tons and Japan 1.06 billion tons.  Pakistan's Annual CO2 Emission. Source: Our World in Da...

Beautiful Hollywood star Angelina Jolie is known for her international humanitarian work as the United Nations Goodwill Ambassador. A winner of multiple awards including one Oscar and three Golden Globes, she is among the highest paid actors in the world. Jolie is currently visiting Pakistan to bring global attention to the immense suffering caused by devastating floods in the country, particularly in its southern Sindh province.   Angelina Jolie Pakistan is dealing with the aftermath of the  worst floods  in the country's history. Over 1500 Pakistanis are dead. About 33 million people in two southern provinces are homeless. Sindh is inundated with 784% of normal rainfall so far this year. Balochistan has seen 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock have been lost, over two million acres of farmland is underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan have been d...

Pakistan is dealing with the aftermath of the worst floods in the country's history.  Over a thousand Pakistanis are dead. About 33 million people in two southern provinces are homeless. Sindh is inundated with 784% of normal rainfall so far this year. Balochistan has seen 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock have been lost, over two million acres of farmland is underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan have been damaged. This is a massive humanitarian crisis. Pakistan can not deal with it alone. Pakistan Flood 2022 Map. Source: DW Satellite Image of Qambar, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: NASA Satellite Image of Shikarpur, Sindh Before/After Floods 2022. Source: NASA Balochistan and Sindh Worst Affected by Monsoon22. Source: The Economist Pakistan's population is about 2.6% of the world population. The nation contributes less than 1% of the global ...

"The bottom line is that Pakistan is not going to go away. We want to buy stocks that look cheap as prices come down as a result of the flood." Mark Mobius, Head, Templeton Asset Management Ltd Pakistan's main shares index KSE-100 rose 28% (26% in US dollar terms) in year 2010, as profits registered 14% growth and dividend yields of 5.2% in the companies making up the index. The market gains were driven by significant foreign buying, particularly by insitutional investors after the massive summer floods in KP, Punjab and Sindh provinces. Foreign institutional investors bought $1.2 billion worth of shares, and sold about $687 million, with the net FII capital inflow of $522 million during the year. One example of renewed foreign institutional buying after the post-floods market is Mark Mobius of the Templeton Asset Management Ltd , as reported by Businessweek . “There will be an impact on growth but company valuations are very, very attractive now and therefore we continu...