Shifting Monsoon Pattern: Is Arid Pakistan Turning Wet?
Semi-arid Pakistan, with its farmlands predominantly irrigated by the world's largest contiguous canal system, has experienced an increasing amount of annual rains and floods for several years. Even the desert regions of the country, like the vast Thar desert straddling India-Pakistan border, have recently been turning green. Now a study has found that "the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200%" by the end of the current century. The authors of this study published by Advanced Earth and Space Science conclude as follows: "While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region".
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| Annual Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Millimeters For 1979-2015. Source: AGU |
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| Greening Trends in Asia. Source: NASA Earth Observatory |
Recent economic data from Pakistan lends credence to the findings of the latest study that the region will see "substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people". Pakistan's agriculture sector grew 6.3% in 2023-24, far outpacing the overall economy that grew just 2.38%, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2023-24. Pakistan’s agricultural exports reached a record $8 billion in FY 2023-24. This is good news for about 40% of the country's population working in the agriculture sector. By contrast, India's agriculture growth slowed to 1.2% in recent quarters. Studies have shown that strong growth in agriculture helps reduce poverty in developing nations like India and Pakistan.
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| Projected Percentage Change in South Asia Rainfall By End of 21st Century. Source: AGU |
The study highlights shifting monsoon patterns bringing more rainfall in northwestern India and Pakistan which is explained as follows: "The warming of the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea strengthens winds that cross the equator, which increases evaporation and the amount of moisture carried from the ocean to the land. This leads to increased monsoon rainfall." "On the other hand, the oceanic rain belt between the equator and 10°S shows weakening, with a decrease in mean rainfall from the eastern IO (Indian Ocean) extending up to the maritime continent", it adds.
A major downside of the increased rainfall from shifting monsoon patterns is frequent flooding in both rural and urban Pakistan. The country experienced the worst floods in its history in 2022. Over a thousand Pakistanis died. About 33 million people in two southern provinces became homeless. Sindh was inundated with 784% of normal rainfall. Balochistan saw 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock were lost, over two million acres of farmland went underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan were damaged. It was a massive humanitarian crisis.
Such extreme weather events like the floods of 2022 are likely to recur and cause widespread devastation unless measures are taken to build back better. Part of the new infrastructure needed to deal with it includes better rainwater harvesting and improved drainage systems. This is what the authors of the study refer to when they say that "harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region".
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The data shows that rainfall patterns in Pakistan are changing.
“The shift that we are seeing is that monsoon used to go to the upper areas, that trend is lessening a bit,” Sahibzad Khan, director general of PMD, told VOA. “Now it’s shifting more to the south.”
Rain that was twice as heavy as normal battered Pakistan’s two southern provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, over the last two months, while the northern, mountainous regions saw average-to-below-average rain, according to the national weather agency.
Just in Sindh, 72,000 children saw their education disrupted by the severe weather, Save the Children said in a statement Wednesday.
Despite heavy rains, flooding, and displacement in parts of the country, experts say Pakistan escaped extensive damage this monsoon season, partly because of lessons learned from the devastating floods in 2022.
“We are working more on anticipatory approaches. Looking at past patterns, we are predicting the scale and velocity of upcoming floods,” said Shafqat Munir Ahmad, deputy executive director of the Resilience Development Program and Policy Outreach at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad.
In 2022, historic rains submerged nearly a third of the country at one time, affecting 33 million Pakistanis and causing nearly $30 billion in damage.
Since then, Pakistan incorporated technology to plan scenarios and issue early severe weather warnings to communities, said Ahmad, adding that improved coordination and response time also reduced damage.
This year, Pakistan also used lightning detectors that China provided last year.
“China has collaborated with us. With their help, we have 26 lightning detector stations that tell us about the type and severity of lightning and thunder,” said weather chief Khan.
Pakistan still lacks sufficient long-term planning, however, to tackle the impact of climate change, experts say. The Germany-based Global Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan the 8th most vulnerable country.
A web app created at the University of Maryland that predicts what a city’s weather will be like in 60 years shows summers and winters in several Pakistani cities will be much warmer than they are at present.
While projects to mitigate climate change may attract funding, Ahmad said efforts to help vulnerable communities adapt to changing climate lack necessary financial support in Pakistan.
Several communities across the South Asian nation are still awaiting funds to rebuild homes devastated by the 2022 weather calamity.
Just last July, the Asian Development Bank approved a $400 million loan to fund the reconstruction of homes and infrastructure in Sindh.
At a donor conference in January 2023, donors pledged more than $9 billion to help Pakistan build back after the 2022 floods. Still, the country has barely tapped the funds that were largely designated as project loans.
As authorities and charitable organizations rush to provide food, water and shelter to communities displaced by this year’s rains and floods, Save the Children urged increased support to prevent the current impact of the floods from becoming long-term problems.
“Governments must tackle the underlying causes of these climate driven disasters, including channeling funding and support to children and their families in Pakistan to adapt, recover and rebuild their lives,” the statement said, quoting country director Khuram Gondal.