IDR 2018: Pakistan's Declining Manufactured Exports

Pakistan's manufacturing sector is performing poorly relative to Bangladesh and India, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization 2018 report. UNIDO data shows that Pakistan's per capita manufacturing value added is not only lower than its neighbors' but it's also growing more slowly since 2010.  In fact, Pakistan's manufactured exports per capita have declined in the last decade.

South Asia Manufacturing. Source: UNIDO IDR 2018


Industrial Development Report 2018:

United Nations Industrial Development Organization, also called UNIDO, is a UN agency whose charter is to "promote and accelerate inclusive and sustainable industrial development (ISID) in Member States". It publishes an annual industrial development report that is "an established source of reference on industrial development. Previous editions have been examining the driving forces of industrialization and the positive factors that can lead to social inclusiveness and environmental sustainability. They have examined crucial components of the production side of industrialization, such as capacity building, energy efficiency, employment creation and technological change, to mention just a few."

Here are key data points from IDR 2018 on selected countries, including Pakistan:

Pakistan MVA per capita 2010 $134 2015 $146

Pakistan Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $102 2015 $94

Bangladesh MVA per capita 2010 $122 2015 $182

Bangladesh Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $121 2015 $152

India MVA per capita 2010 $228 2015 $298

India Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $152 2015 $186

China MVA per capita 2010 $1,432 2015 $2,048

China Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $1,132 2015 $1,601

Pakistan's Export Performance:

The bulk of Pakistan's exports consist of low value commodities like chadar, chawal and chamra (textiles, rice and leather). These exports have declined from about 15% to about 8% of GDP since 2003. Pakistan's trade deficits are growing at an alarming rate as the imports continue to far outstrip exports. This situation is not sustainable.  What must Pakistan do to improve it? What can Pakistan do to avoid recurring balance of payments crises?  How can Pakistan diversify and grow its exports to reduce the gaping trade gap? How can Pakistan's closest ally China help? Can China invest in export oriented industries and open up its huge market for exports from Pakistan? Let's explore answers to these question. 

Exports as Percentage of GDP. Source: World Bank
East Asia's Experience:

East Asian nations have greatly benefited from major investments made by the United States and Europe in export-oriented industries and increased access to western markets over the last several decades. Asian Tigers started with textiles and then switched to manufacturing higher value added consumer electronics and high tech products. Access to North American and European markets boosted their export earnings and helped them accumulate large foreign exchange reserves that freed them from dependence on the IMF and other international financial institutions. China, too, has been a major beneficiary of these western policies. All have significantly enhanced their living standards.

Chinese Investment and Trade:

Pakistan needs similar investments in export-oriented industries and greater access to major markets. Given the end of the Cold War and changing US alliances, it seems unlikely that the United States would help Pakistan deal with the difficulties it faces today.

China sees Pakistan as a close strategic ally. It is investing heavily in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which includes China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A recent opinion piece by Yao Jing, the Chinese Ambassador in Pakistan, published  in the state-owned China Daily, appears to suggest that China is prepared to offer such help. Here are two key excerpts from the opinion piece titled "A community of shared future with Pakistan":

1. China will actively promote investment in Pakistan. The Chinese government will firmly promote industrial cooperation, expand China's direct investment in Pakistan, and encourage Chinese enterprises to actively participate in the construction of special economic zones. Its focus of cooperation will be upgrading Pakistan's manufacturing capacity and expanding export-oriented industries.

2. China will also actively expand its imports from Pakistan. In November, China will hold the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai, where, as one of the "Chief Guest" countries, Pakistan has been invited to send a large delegation of exporters and set up exhibitions at both the national and export levels. It is hoped that Pakistan will make full use of this opportunity to promote its superior products to China. The Chinese side will also promote cooperation between the customs and quarantine authorities of both countries to facilitate the further opening-up of China's agricultural product market to Pakistan. China will, under the framework of free trade cooperation between the two countries, provide a larger market share for Pakistani goods, and strengthen cooperation and facilitate local trade between Gilgit-Baltistan and China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. And China will take further visa facilitation measures to encourage more Pakistani businesspeople to visit China.

Pakistan's Role:

Pakistan needs to take the Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing's offer to increase Chinese investments and open up China's market for imports from Pakistan.  Pakistan's new government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan should take immediate steps to pursue the Chinese offer. Finance Minister Asad Umar needs to form a high-powered team of top bureaucrats and leading businessmen to develop a comprehensive plan to attract investments in export-oriented industries and diversify and grow exports to China and other countries. Pakistan must make full use of its vast network of overseas diplomatic missions to promote investment and trade. 

Summary:

Pakistan's manufacturing sector is performing poorly relative to Bangladesh and India, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization 2018 report. UNIDO data shows that Pakistan's per capita manufacturing value added is not only lower than its neighbors' but it's also growing more slowly since 2010.  In fact, Pakistan's manufactured exports per capita have declined in the last decade. Pakistan's exports have declined from about 15% of GDP to about 8% since 2003. The nation's trade deficits are growing at an alarming rate as the imports continue to far outstrip exports. This situation is not sustainable. Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing has offered a helping hand to increase Chinese investment and trade in Pakistan.   Pakistan's new government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan should take the Chinese Ambassador's plan seriously. Finance Minister Asad Umar needs to form a high-powered team of top bureaucrats and leading businessmen on a comprehensive plan to attract investments in export-oriented industries and diversify and grow exports to China and other countries.

Comments

Riaz Haq said…
CPEC spurs Pakistan’s industrial growth, up by 5.4% in FY18

https://dailytimes.com.pk/286581/cpec-spurs-pakistans-industrial-growth-up-by-5-4-in-fy18/

The country’s large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector has witnessed growth of 5.38 percent during the fiscal year 2017-18 (FY18) compared to the corresponding period of last year, but, below the government’s FY18 target of 6.3 percent.

LSM grew 3.13 percent in 2015-16, 3.38 percent in 2014-15, 5.39 percent in 2013-14, 4.28 percent in 2012-13 and 5.6 percent in 2016-17.

The factors, according to the central bank, which facilitated LSM growth mainly included increased capacity utilization due to ease in energy supplies; high credit off-take owing to low interest rates; output stimulus in associated industries due to widespread construction activities; and an improved business environment on the back of CPEC related projects and favorable law and order situation.


Construction allied and consumer durable industries registered a notable growth. However, sugar industry was not able to capitalize on record sugarcane production; in stark contrast to last year, when it was the main driver of LSM growth.

The Quantum Index Numbers (QIM) of large scale manufacturing industries was recorded at 147.07 points during July-June 2017-18 against 139.55 points during same period of last year, according to latest data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said industrial production has witnessed the highest growth in the current fiscal year since FY08. The performance can be traced to noteworthy contributions from construction and manufacturing activities. Public sector development program (PSDP) and CPEC related expenditure have had a spillover impact on manufacturing sub-sectors such as steel, cement and automobiles. However, the industry could not achieve the growth target set for FY18 on account of a lower increase in gross value addition (GVA) by electricity generation and gas distribution.

The highest growth of 13.24 percent was witnessed in the indices monitored by Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC) followed by Ministry of Industries with 5.04 percent and the indices of Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (PBOS) with 4.4800 percent.

On month-on-month basis, the industrial output increased by 0.51 percent in June 2018 compared to June 2017 while it decreased by 8.30 per cent if compared to May 2018.


Meanwhile, the major sectors that showed growth during the said fiscal compared to same period of the previous year, included textile (0.38 percent), food beverages & tobacco (2.78 percent), coke and petroleum products (13.24 percent), pharmaceuticals (2.94 percent), non metallic mineral products (11.04 percent), automobiles (17.78 percent), iron and steel products (21.78 percent), electronics (32.43 per cent), paper and board (9.38 percent), engineering products (7.58 per cent), and rubber products (6.21 percent).

On the other hand, the industries that witnessed negative growth include f, chemicals (0.23 percent), fertilizers (9.88 percent), leather products (0.19 percent), and wood products (37.75 percent).

The provisional QIM is being computed on the basis of the latest production data of 112 items received from sources including Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC), Ministry of Industries and Production (MoIP) and Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (PBoS). OCAC provides data of 11 items, MoIP of 36 items while PBoS proved data of remaining 65 items.
Riaz Haq said…
50 Auto Factories' Production Improved With JICA Support

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/50-auto-factories-production-improved-with-j-425957.html

Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) has improved production systems of 50 Auto Factories with the support of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) has improved production systems of 50 Auto Factories with the support of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

SMEDA Chief Executive Officer Sher Ayub disclosed this here Wednesday while commenting on second term of SMEDA-JICA joint project being run for technical support of auto parts manufacturing industry in Pakistan.

The project, he said, was being conducted in coordination with Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM).

He acknowledged services of the Provincial Chief SMEDA-Sindh Mukesh Kumar to make this project successful in close coordination with PAAPAM.

He said that Auto sector was one of the rapidly growing sectors in Pakistan. Its contribution towards the national economy in the form of technology transfer, employment and revenue generation is visible, he said and pointed out that the sector had a significant room to further improve quality, bring innovation and flexibility of manufacturing system which is being addressed with the support of JICA. He observed that Japan's technical support had helped the local auto parts manufacturers to get prepared for export market by improving quality and productivity of their products, as per world's requirements.

Earlier, at a ceremony held at PAAPAM Office, the SMEDA (Sindh) Provincial Chief Mukesh Kumar gave a briefing on the activities to be conducted under second term of SMEDA-JICA joint project for technical support of Auto sector in the country.

Yoshihisa Onoe - senior representative of JICA Pakistan Office, Hiroshi KANEKI - Chief of JICA Technical Team, Hiroshi SASAKI-Deputy Chief of JICA Team, Ikuta, Ishitaki, Sato (JICA Experts) and Muhammad Ashraf Sheikh, Senior Vice Chairman PAAPAM also spoke on this occasion.

Yoshihisa Onoe-the Senior Representative of JICA, in his address, assured to continue the technical support for Pakistan's industry to compete in the world market in terms of technical know-how and the modern manufacturing techniques.

He acknowledged that JICA's collaboration with SMEDA and PAAPAM had proved to be very useful for the local auto parts' manufacturing industry in Pakistan.

He was glad to note that productivity of the sector had increased to an optimal level, whereas, the rejection rates to be witnessed in the manufacturing processes had reduced to the lowest possible level. He said that the SMEs, engaged in auto parts manufacturing, had a great potential to compete the world market and assured to extend fullest technical support of JICA to impart the best practices being exercised in auto sector of the developed world.

Muhammad Ashraf Sheikh, Senior Vice Chairman (PAAPAM) appreciated SMEDA initiatives to get JICA's technical cooperation for auto parts industry.

He said that PAAPAM members had greatly availed of the assistance to increase their productivity and reduce rejection rates in their manufacturing processes. He urged SMEDA and JICA to continue the program even after completion of the set period.
Riaz Haq said…
Livestock revolution enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes in 1980s. Economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2013/11/pakistan-leads-south-asia-in.html

http://sawtee.org/presentations/27-28-dec-2015-2.pdf
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan's #PTI government led by #ImranKhan plans to review or renegotiate #CPEC agreements with #China. #Chinese FM Wang Yi visiting #Islamabad indicates #Beijing open renegotiating its 2006 trade deal with Pakistan. https://www.ft.com/content/d4a3e7f8-b282-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132

Pakistani ministers and advisers say the country’s new government will review BRI investments and renegotiate a trade agreement signed more than a decade ago that it says unfairly benefits Chinese companies.

The projects concerned are part of the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan — by far the largest and most ambitious part of the BRI, which seeks to connect Asia and Europe along the ancient silk road.

They include a huge expansion of the Gwadar port on Pakistan’s south coast, as well as road and rail links and $30bn worth of power plants.

“The previous government did a bad job negotiating with China on CPEC — they didn’t do their homework correctly and didn’t negotiate correctly so they gave away a lot,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the Pakistani member of cabinet responsible for commerce, textiles, industry and investment, told the Financial Times.

“Chinese companies received tax breaks, many breaks and have an undue advantage in Pakistan; this is one of the things we’re looking at because it’s not fair that Pakistan companies should be disadvantaged,” he said.

Wang Yi, Chinese foreign minister, who visited Islamabad at the weekend, indicated that Beijing could be open to renegotiating its 2006 trade deal with Pakistan. “CPEC has not inflicted a debt burden on Pakistan,” he told reporters. “When these projects get completed and enter into operation, they will unleash huge economic benefits.”

But Islamabad's second thoughts follow other recent setbacks for BRI, which is seen by many as a bid by China’s President Xi Jinping to extend Beijing’s influence throughout the world. Governments in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and elsewhere have already expressed reservations over the onerous terms of Chinese BRI lending and investment.

Imran Khan, the former cricket star who was elected Pakistan’s prime minister last month, has established a nine-member committee to evaluate CPEC projects. It is scheduled to meet for the first time this week and will “think through CPEC — all of the benefits and the liabilities”, said Mr Dawood, who sits on the new committee.

“I think we should put everything on hold for a year so we can get our act together,” he added. “Perhaps we can stretch CPEC out over another five years or so.”

Several other officials and advisers to the Khan government concurred that extending the terms of CPEC loans and spreading projects out over a longer timeframe was the preferred option, rather than outright cancellation.

Pakistan is in the middle of a financial crisis and must decide in the coming weeks whether to turn to the IMF for its 13th bailout in three decades, as pressure on the Pakistani rupee makes the burden of servicing foreign currency debt more onerous.

Asad Umar, Pakistan’s new finance minister, told the FT he was evaluating a plan that would allow Islamabad to avoid an IMF programme, which several people close to the government say would i nvolve new loans from China and perhaps also from Saudi Arabia.

Mr Umar and Mr Dawood both said Pakistan would be careful not to offend Beijing even as it takes a closer look at CPEC agreements signed over the past five years. Mr Khan was elected on a platform of anti-corruption and transparency and has pledged to publish details of existing CPEC contracts.

“We don’t intend to handle this process like Mahathir,” Mr Umar said, referring to the newly elected nonagenarian Malaysian prime minister who has warned about the risk of Chinese “neo-colonialism” Malaysia has cancelled three China-backed pipeline projects and put a showpiece BRI rail link under review.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan eyes boosting medicine exports. #Pharmaceutical #exports are currently earning $230 million with potential to expand up to $2 billion. The industry is the 6th largest sector contributing to the overall exports of Pakistan. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1813190/1-pakistan-eyes-boosting-medicine-exports-2b/

The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (Drap) has assured the pharma industry that in order to further facilitate exports, the authority will establish a separate desk where all concerns of exporters regarding issuance of necessary documentation will be addressed.

Pharma exports are currently earning $230 million with potential to expand up to $2billion.
A meeting was held on Thursday under the chairmanship of Federal Minister for Health Services Aamir Mehmood Kiani with pharmaceutical exporters. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss mechanisms to boost volume of pharmaceutical and alternative medicine exports.

The federal minister in response to concerns of the pharma industry, being represented by the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Association and top 20 pharma exporters of Pakistan, emphasised on the need of harmonisation and facilitation of pharma export by engaging customs and the Trade and Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) for resolution of their grievances.

He said the sector has huge potential and needs harvesting to benefit the country by earning money abroad through improved exports of pharmaceutical and alternative medicine. It was also apprised the industry could expand its volume of exports as the 6th largest sector contributing to the overall exports of Pakistan.

Kiani advised stakeholders to submit a working paper on how export volume can be improved. Following which, CEO DRAP, Dr Sheikh Akhter Hussain apprised the federal minister that DRAP has already taken initiative to facilitate local manufacturers who are exporting to other countries.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan's #cement industry earned foreign exchange revenue of US$27.57m by #export of 617,745t of cement during the month of August 2018, up from US$20.96m in prior month.
https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/164961/pakistan-cement-exports-rise-during-july-and-august.html#.W62Q7UcKoTI.twitter

According to Federal Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan's cement industry earned foreign exchange revenue of US$27.57m by exporting 617,745t of cement during the month of August 2018, compared to US$20.96m from exporting 475,134t of cement in previous month. This equated to a growth of 31.5 per cent and 30 per cent in terms of value and quantity, respectively MoM.

When compared with the figure of August 2017, earning of US$22.41m from 442,945t of cement – it translates to a YoY growth of 23 per cent in foreign currency earnings and 39.5 per cent in quantity.

On a cumulative basis, export revenue during July-August 2018 surged by eight per cent to US$48.53m with exports of 1.09Mt of cement and US$44.93m from exports of 871,434t in July-August 2017. The growth in Pakistan rupees rose by 27.1 per cent to PKR6bn during this period.

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) recorded that cement exports from Pakistan to Afghanistan and India fell by 34 per cent and 22 per cent to 278,253t and 164,552t, respectively during first two months of the current financial year. However, cement exports to rest of the world rose by 149 per cent to about 633,385t during this period.
Riaz Haq said…
#Japan's Multi-national #Apparel Brand Uniqlo to Outsource #Garments to #Pakistan. Three #Pakistani garment #manufacturing companies one each in #Faisalabad, #Karachi and #Lahore have been selected. #RMG #textiles #Exports https://www.researchsnipers.com/japanese-apparel-brand-uniqlo-to-outsource-garments-to-pakistan/ via @researchsnipers

One of the most famous apparels brand in the world, Uniqlo is planning to outsource textile garments to Pakistan. Uniqlo will outsource for its 3000 branches worldwide from three Pakistani firms.


The subsidiary of Japanese retail holding company Fast Retailing Inc, Uniqlo Inc has collaborated with three local Pakistan companies aiming to boost the textile exports of the country.

Also read: Pakistan Textile Exports Increased by 8 percent reaches $8.8 billion
Initially, Uniqlo selected five textile companies in Lahore, Faisalabad, and Karachi. Uniqlo representatives were sent to all the companies to assess them and analyze their potential.

An official said, “The initial visit of the Uniqlo team has been successful, which is a big breakthrough.” Three companies were selected by Uniqlo for a joint venture.

Adding, “They still requested for some more companies for shirt fabric and others for circular cutting and sewing.”

For the fiscal year 2017-18, the textile exports of Pakistan increased by almost 9% to $13.53 billion. The textile exports account for almost 60% of total Pakistan’s exports. But compared to the last decade the textile export share of Pakistan in the world market has gone down from 2.2% to 1.7%.

The world’s biggest clothes retailer company Spanish Inditex Group opened its branch office in Pakistan in February. The aim was to double its imports from Pakistan. Other important foreign buying companies in Pakistan include Walmart Global Procurement, Li and Fung Pakistan, JC Penny and others.

Uniqlo is planning to make another trip to Pakistan by end of the month to finalize the deal with the three Pakistani companies.

Uniqlo is a big name in Japan known for providing quality products at affordable rates. The official said, “Therefore, any significant move by Uniqlo into Pakistan for investment and procurement will generate a ripple effect… it will boost textile export. From its factories, Uniqlo supplies apparels to its more than 3,000 sales outlets all across the world.”
Riaz Haq said…
Joint venture: #Pakistan, #China firms to build $200m glass #manufacturing complex for production of premium, #export-quality #glass products in special economic zone. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1834085/2-joint-venture-pakistan-china-firms-build-200m-glass-manufacturing-complex/

Deli China and JW SEZ Group have joined hands for establishing a $200 million modern glass manufacturing complex in Pakistan for the production of premium, export-quality glass products.

In this regard, the groundbreaking ceremony was held at the Prime Minister’s Office where prominent businessmen, government officials and a Chinese delegation were present.

Commenting on the initiative, Prime Minister Imran Khan said initiatives like ‘Make in Pakistan’ were immensely important for the economic development of the country.
“We need to promote such initiatives and the government will fully support such projects which are aimed at producing jobs and boosting the economy,” he said. “This investment is an indication of foreign investors’ confidence in the market of Pakistan.”

Pakistan, China may sign deal for investment in agriculture

The two sides have established Deli-JW Glassware Company Limited for the project. Pak-China Investment Company is facilitating Chinese investment in Pakistan and is also assisting in financing the project.

The project will utilise natural resources in Pakistan and use latest technology to convert into glassware, float glass and other kinds of glass products.

The project will be set up in the Industrial City M-3, Faisalabad whereas the unit for the processing of key raw material will be set up in Risalpur, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Pakistan needs to improve competitiveness to attract FDI

The main glass manufacturing complex will comprise glassware manufacturing units, float glass units and other value-added glass products. The groundbreaking for phase-I of the project was held on Thursday and it will start production by the end of 2019.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan agrees to sell #JF17 #aircraft to #Nigeria Air Force. #Nigerian Air Chief Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar called for closer coordination to fast-track the process for the acquisition of the JF-17 multirole fighter aircraft from Pakistan. https://www.nigerianews.net/naf-partners-with-pakistern-to-purchase-equipment/

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has promised to strengthen its strategic partnership with the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) in equipment and spares acquisition to further enhance professionalism.

A statement by the NAF Spokesman, Air Commodore Ibikunle Daramola, said the Pakistan High Commissioner to Nigeria, retired Maj.-Gen. Waqar Kingravi, made the pledge when he visited the Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar on Friday in Abuja.

NIGERIA NEWS gathered that Kingravi said Pakistan would also partner with the NAF on research and development, training and other relevant areas to further enhance professionalism.

He said he was at NAF Headquaters to assure the CAS of the commitment of the Pakistan Government to strengthening the existing cordial relationship between Nigeria and Pakistan.

The commissioner said the relations between the two counties had spanned several decades and yielded several mutually beneficial military collaborations.

Kingravi noted that having once headed the Army Aviation Corp of the Pakistan Army, he was familiar with peculiar requirements of air operations.



He added that he would pay particular attention to ensure that the ties between the air forces of the two countries were taken to even greater heights.

Kingravi also commiserated with the NAF on the tragic air mishap that occurred on Sept. 28, which led to the death of Sqn.Ldr. Bello Baba-Ari.

In a remark, Abubakar said that the relationship between the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and NAF was extremely cordial and had continued to grow over the past few years.

He noted that the story of the successes recorded in the counter insurgency operations in the North–East, could not be written without mentioning the support rendered by the Pakistan government.

Abubakar recounted several occasions when the PAF had gone beyond the usual to assist the NAF.

He assured Kingravi that the NAF would continue to provide the necessary support and cooperation to enable him succeed.

The CAS called for closer coordination in order to fast-track the process for the acquisition of the JF-17 multirole fighter aircraft from Pakistan.

He also appealed to the High Commissioner to liaise with PAF to develop a special programme for the conduct of basic fighter training for NAF pilots.
Riaz Haq said…
Despite dip in #textile sector, knitted #garment #exports soar 16%. #Pakistan’s overall textile exports were recorded at $1.13 billion in October 2018, down 0.12% compared with $1.132 billion in the same month in 2017. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1849520/2-despite-dip-textile-sector-knitted-garment-exports-soar-16/

Despite a slight dip in overall textile exports, the knitwear garment sector has maintained a steady pace of growth in its shipments and led the sector with an increase of 16.13% in its exports for October 2018.

Pakistan’s overall textile exports were recorded at $1.13 billion in October, down 0.12% compared with $1.132 billion in the same month last year.

However, the knitwear garment sector stood on top with the highest exports in the textile chain as well as in total national exports with a growth of 16% compared with October 2017.

Knitwear garment exports grew 10.41% in July-October 2018 against the corresponding period of previous year.

With cut in input cost, textile sector vows to double exports

“Knitted garments have a great potential for expansion,” commented Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PHMA) Central Chairman Muhammad Jawed Bilwani.

“The knitwear garment sector can achieve new milestones and its export can be enhanced by 25% every year, provided the government gives serious consideration to the proposals sought from the sector,” he said.

The sector alone earned $2.719 billion for the country in fiscal year 2017-18, which included knitted products like hoodies, shirts, t-shirts, jerseys, pullovers, trousers, jackets, etc. The sector has ranked high in the textile group over the past three years.

Textile exports drop 16% after rebate reduction

Bilwani termed it appreciable that the government was giving priority to five zero-rated export sectors – textile (including jute), carpet, leather, sports and surgical goods – and was also prioritising the export industry for the provision of uninterrupted gas supply with special tariffs, which was a longstanding demand of the PHMA. He was of the view that if the government considered the exporters’ proposals and resolved all their problems and issues, a breakthrough in exports could be easily achieved.

He called exports the lifeline that would support and strengthen the national economy. He also demanded that the government consider and set separate electricity tariffs for the five zero-rated industries and introduce uniform tariffs for water consumption as well. Currently, water tariffs for the industries in Karachi were the highest when compared with other regions and provinces.

Meanwhile, the PHMA has written a letter to the finance minister, requesting him to register all export-oriented textile manufacturers as zero-rated industries so that they could avail themselves of the facilities. “Many small and medium export-oriented industries are not registered as zero-rated in utility bills due to cumbersome tax payment procedures as they first pay sales tax and then apply for tax refund,” he said.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan #food #exports up 16.9%. In Q1 of FY 2018-19, foodstuff exports from Pakistan grew by 16.93% as compared to the corresponding period of last year. These exports were recorded at $885.8 million as against $740.5 million the year before http://www.freshplaza.com/article/9035122/export-of-pakistan-food-commodities-up-percent/#.W_IX8oVdSKI.twitter

On month-to-month basis, the exports increased by 31.25 percent in September 2018 as compared to the same month of last year.

During the period from July to September 2018, exports of fruit and vegetables increased by 49.34 percent and 19.17 percent respectively. In first quarter, 130,747 tons of fruit worth $101.9 million were exported as compared to exports of 83,073 tons (at $68.2 million) in the same period last year.

During the period under review, Pakistan also earned $16.1 million by exporting about 4,289 tons of spices, recorded at 3,558 tons and $13.4 million of same period of last year, registering an increase of 21.82 percent.

Riaz Haq said…
#Chinese businesses pledges US$ 5 billion #investment in #Pakistan in next 5 years in sectors including #construction, #machinery, glass, #automobile, electrical, $power, #transportation, information #technology and #telecom among others. #CPEC #China https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/chinese-businesses-pledges-usd-5-bn-investment-in-pakistan-in-next-five-years-119071201256_1.html#.XSkTS6IVh9Y.twitter

Over 55 executives and CEOs of leading Chinese companies on Friday called on Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and pledged to invest USD 5 billion in the cash-strapped nation over the next five years, according to an official statement.

The visiting Chinese business delegation represented various sectors including construction, machinery, glass, automobile, electrical, power, transportation, information technology and technological research among others.


"Chinese business executives expressed confidence in the business friendly policies of the government and committed to invest USD 5 billion over a period of five years in various small and medium size industrial sectors," the statement said.

Pakistan has so far received billions in financial aid packages from friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, China and the UAE during the current fiscal year.

During the meeting, Khan welcomed the Chinese delegation and stated that China has always been a trusted partner of Pakistan.

The sagacity, wisdom and vision of the Chinese leadership for peace & development, good governance and poverty alleviation is highly impressive and worth emulating, said Khan.

He added that the interest of Chinese companies towards investment and relocating business and industrial units to Pakistan reflected the trust of the Chinese side in the growing economy of Pakistan.

He said the Chinese side have a strong desire to translate Pak-China equation into a win-win economic partnership.

Our Government is facilitating investors and reducing impediments in ease of doing business'. Partnership with Chinese companies and their investment will reap multiple benefits for both the countries including employment generation, transfer of technology and economic growth," he said.

Talking about China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Khan reiterated that ambitious project will prove to be a game-changer with respect to enhancing trade activities and further cementing Pak-China relations.

The CPEC, which connects Gwadar Port in Balochistan with China's Xinjiang province, is the flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

"Fast-track implementation of the CPEC projects is our priority for which a special unit is overseeing implementation of various projects in Planning Division," he said.

China's Ambassador Yao Jing said that Chinese investors have observed fundamental improvement of policies and facilitation of foreign investors in Pakistan.

"Chinese government will extend all possible support towards realising the vision of a strong, stable and prosperous Naya Pakistan, Yao said.

Riaz Haq said…
#CPEC 2.0 Focus on Boosting #Exports: Promotion of business to business relationship for #technological, #industrial investment & development to augment #Pakistan’s capacity to #export products, Says #Chinese Envoy to #Islamabad https://www.app.com.pk/pakistans-capacity-of-export-to-be-augmented-under-cpec-2nd-phase-envoy/ Associated Press Pakistan

Chinese Ambassador in Pakistan Yao Jing on Friday said that under second phase of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), promotion of business to business relationship for technological and industrial development in order to augment Pakistan’s capacity to export was a priority area for the Chinese government.

He was speaking to Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Muhammad Hammad Azhar here at the minister’s office, said a press release.

The envoy congratulated Hammad Azhar on his elevation as Federal Minister.

The Ambassador reiterated commitment of his government to the strategic relationship with Pakistan and hoped that appointment of Federal Minister for Economic Affairs will further strengthen relationship between the two countries.

The Ambassador updated the minister on the progress made on account of implementation of CPEC related projects.

The envoy stated that in the second phase socio-economic sector projects, with grant financing for direct benefit of common man were also priority areas.

The minister stated that the CPEC is a flagship programme of Belt and Road initiative which is now entering into a new phase. He reiterated commitment of his government for implementation of next phase of CPEC for the benefit of people of Pakistan.

He acknowledged the historic relationship with China and the generous support it has been extending to Pakistan.

The minster also acknowledged the economic and financial assistance provided by China to Pakistan during difficult times. China’s position on the current situation in occupied Kashmir was vehemently appreciated.
Riaz Haq said…
Special Economic Zones (#SEZs) in #Faisalabad alone would help #Pakistan grow its #exports by $1billion to $1.5 billion per year in the short span of time by ensuring effective and comprehensive planning, Says (FIEDMC) Chief Mian Kashif #economy https://nation.com.pk/15-Sep-2019/sezs-to-boost-exports-to-1-5b-per-annum-fiedmc

Appreciating economic vision of Prime Minister Imran Khan, he said the premier has directed all the concerned departments to remove hurdles in the way of development of SEZs and establish them on priority basis.

Fortunately, he said almost hundred percent plots in M-3 Industrial Estate have already been sold out while hundreds of units have become operational and were playing their role in providing exportable surplus in addition to accommodating thousands of workers.

Mian Kashif said that the industrial city would house more than 400 textile, steel, pharmaceutical, engineering, chemical, food processing, plastic and agriculture appliances units in addition to providing jobs to 250 thousand workers.

He claimed that the city was also expected to attract Rs400 billion local and foreign direct investment which would help Pakistan to stabilise its economy. He further said that Faisalabad was strategically located in the heart of Pakistan with two motorways passing from its eastern and western sides.

He said that this city has a unique privilege to contribute 60 percent towards textile exports and 45 percent towards total exports of the country.

He further said that it was not only restricted to textile which was its iconic identification but hundreds of SMEs hailing from chemicals, steel, food processing and others were also playing their role in the overall economy of Pakistan.

FIEDMC Chairman further said investors from China, Turkey, Korea and Britain have pumped $ 1.10 billion and their confidence in Pakistan have been restored as they are also bringing more investors from their respective country to invest in SEZs.

He said these investors expressed their eagerness to explore the possibility of investment in diverse sectors of Pakistan especially in ceramics, chemicals, steel, food processing and automobiles.

He said Prime Minister Imran Khan clearly directed them to focus on developing such industry in SEZs which is based on export and import substitution to restrict the import bill.

He said the good thing is that a number of Chinese industries have started pumping investment in SEZs and apparently the reason behind this is the production cost in China has increased which is making Pakistan one of the beneficiaries of on-going US China trade war.

He emphasised that consistent policies were imperative to attract foreign investment into the country, which could lead the economy towards sustainable growth.

He said industries operating in the FIEDMC will have an immediate access to high-quality infrastructure, un-interrupted power supply, public facilities and support services along with simpler ease of doing business.

Chief Operating Officer Muhammad Aamer Saleemi also briefed the delegation and said FIEDMC in collaboration with Industrial Police Liaison Committee has established police post at M-3 Industrial City and the industrial community will work under safe environment.

“The whole industrial estate will be monitored by high resolution surveillance cameras and 24 hours police patrolling will be provided in the estate,” adding he said this would make FIEDMC the safest industrial estate in the country.

He said CPEC will attract $40 billion worth of investment which will directly raise investment-to-GDP ratio by 2.8 percentage points besides some indirect investment addition.

“The investment in hard currency will also support exchange rate stability in the country and stabilise balance of payments situation in the country,” he added.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan's Dawlance to export #microwave ovens to #Bangladesh. #Pakistan is rapidly diversifying its #exports into high quality and globally competitive engineering products, says Commerce Chief Razak Dawood. #Trade https://www.brecorder.com/news/40001185

Razzak was chairing an internal review meeting to discuss the finalization of Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF), at Commerce Division, said a press release.

Advisor to the Prime Minister on Commerce, Abdul Razak Dawood informed that in pursuance of the diversification policy, the export of microwave ovens from Pakistan has been confirmed for the first time and these are going to be exported by Dawlance, a Turkish investment in Pakistan.

The advisor on Friday stated that, with the support from the Government, other engineering products will soon follow suit and get exported to the rest of the world.

In this regard, duties on import of components of televisions have been reduced to promote local manufacturing of television sets, which has a potential for export as well in the coming years.

He said that Pakistan is rapidly diversifying its exports into high quality and globally competitive engineering products.

He was chairing an internal review meeting to discuss the finalization of Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF), at Commerce Division, said a press release.

The Advisor Commerce stated that one of the objectives of the STPF is to achieve diversification of our export in products other than the traditional ones.

He explained that through promotion of exports in new sectors, particularly the engineering and pharmaceuticals sectors, “we are going to reduce our reliance on five traditional export sectors.

He added that this has also been supported in the Budget 2020-21, with reduction of import duties on raw materials and the tariff rationalization measures.

Currently, the draft STPF is being reviewed by the stakeholders and their views are being incorporated in the final draft, which will be placed before the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet shortly.

Talking about the emerging sectors for export opportunities, Razak Dawood underscored that Pakistan’s engineering products, especially home appliances, are now producing internationally competitive quality products.

The Advisor was optimistic that the results of the first-ever Mobile Phone Manufacturing Policy recently announced by the Government would soon become visible in the coming months in the form of increase in exports of locally manufactured mobile devices from Pakistan.
Riaz Haq said…
#Turkish owned Dawlance sees $400 million in appliances’ #exports from #Pakistan. It has 3 new factories for automatic washing machine & water dispensers in the country. It has begun exporting water-dispensers to #Europe & #microwave ovens to #Bangladesh https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/613473-turkish-firm-sees-400mln-potential-in-appliances-exports

Pakistan could fetch $300 to 400 million from exports of home appliances if the government focuses on non-traditional export sector and diversify exportable products, an industry official said on Thursday.


Chief Executive Officer Umar Ahsan said the company is committed to transfer technology to Pakistan to increase value-added exports from the country.

“Automatic washing machines can be exported from Pakistan. There is a potential to fetch $300 to $400 million in export revenue from products manufactured in the company’s (Dawlance) supply chain,” Ahsan said, talking to media. Overall exports could increase $10 to $15 billion per annum with diversification of exports and through focusing on non-traditional items. “But, first of all this requires a level-playing field to all the new sectors of the economy,” he added.

Ahsan accompanied Can Dinçer, chief commercial officer of Acrelik, Turkish parent company of Dawlance. Dinçer said the company has invested over $300 million in Pakistan since acquisition of Dawlance in 2016.

“We have re-invested $60 million in Pakistan whatever we earned here and now (are) eyeing to increase our shares in exports,” he said. “We are asking the government to focus on diversifying exports related to engineering goods instead of relying on few products, such textile, surgical and other products.”

Dinçer said the company’s plan is to introduce competitive pricing model in all categories to better response to the needs of the changing demands while using the distribution channels effectively in 2020.

“Since 2016, we have gained a very strong foothold in one of the world’s most promising markets, Pakistan and further built on the strengths of Dawlance,” he said. “We are very proud to see that Dawlance and Arçelik grow together as part of a larger and global organisation.”

Dawlance set up new production lines to manufacture automatic washing machine and water dispensers in the country. It also began exporting water-dispensers to Europe. It has three factories and is expanding its sales and service network, which comprises of 1,800 plus dealers across Pakistan.

The company recently inaugurated an experience store in Peshawar, offering complete range of products to consumers. It plans to establish more experience stores in other cities. Ahsan said China is the company’s main competitor because of the economy of scale. Cost of production needs to be reduced to increase Pakistan’s share in world’s exports.

On taxation, he said the Federal Board of Revenue abolished 10 percent depreciation out of total investment and the company made it part of its calculations. “We took investment decision in view 10 percent depreciation allowance,” he said. “We asked the FBR to provide this facility.”

Ahsan said the company has so far upgraded skills of 300 workers to meet quality and standard requirements for the manufactured products.
Riaz Haq said…
Is Pakistan’s Growth Rate
Balance-of-Payments Constrained?
Policies and Implications
for Development and Growth
Jesus Felipe, J. S. L. McCombie, and Kaukab Naqvi
No. 160 | May 2009

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28250/economics-wp160.pdf

------------

The basic premise of the BOP-constrained growth model is that in the long run, no
country can grow faster than the rate consistent with balance on the current account,
unless it can finance evergrowing deficits. Indeed, if imports grow faster than exports, the
current account deficit has to be financed by borrowing from abroad, i.e., by the growth
of capital inflows.6 But this cannot continue indefinitely. The seminal paper is Thirlwall
(1979).

-------

This paper examines the extent to which Pakistan’s growth has been, or is
likely to be, limited or constrained by its balance-of-payments (BOP). The
paper begins by briefly considering the BOP-constrained growth model in
the context of demand and supply-oriented approaches to economic growth.
Evidence presented suggests that Pakistan’s maximum growth rate consistent
with equilibrium on the basic balance is approximately 5% per annum. This is
below the long-term target rate of a growth of gross domestic product of 7–8%
per annum. This BOP-constrained growth approach provides some important
policy prescriptions for Pakistan’s development policy. Real exchange rate
depreciations will not lead to an improvement of the current account. Pakistan
must lift constraints that impede higher growth of exports. In particular, it must
shift its export structure to products with a higher income elasticity of demand
and sophistication.

----------

Pakistan’s output growth rate since the 1960s has averaged 5.3% per annum, and
2.5% in terms of productivity growth. While these figures are respectable by world
standards, they are not so impressive compared with those of the East Asian economies
when they were at a similar stage of development in the late 1960s. In the 1950s and
1960s Pakistan started transforming from a poor agricultural economy into a rapidly
industrializing one; yet it never subsequently achieved growth rates similar to those of
the Asian tigers or, more recently, the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The country’s
Poverty Reduction Strategy (April 2007) has targeted a growth rate of gross domestic
product (GDP) of 7–7.5% per annum for the next decade. The question that naturally
arises is whether this is feasible or whether it is a hopelessly overoptimistic target. If
the former, what are the necessary policy measures that should be taken to ensure this
outcome? If the latter, what impedes higher growth?

-------------------

In particular, there are concerns about the changing composition of output and the rise
of substantial deficits on the current and fiscal accounts. In 2001–2003, export growth
made a significant contribution to GDP growth. But in 2004–2007, when the growth rate
was higher, consumption, investment, and government expenditure were the largest
contributors. From the supply side, the service sector was the largest contributor to GDP
growth (Felipe and Lim 2008). Exports plus net factor income from abroad has fallen as
a percentage of GDP while the rapid growth has sucked in imports. This is reminiscent of
the early periods of high growth in the 1980s and 1990s when there were also significant
deficits in the current account. In fiscal year 2007–2008, the current account deficit
rose to 8.4% of GDP. This has led to a serious BOP crisis. As a consequence, rating
agencies Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s downgraded Pakistan. This will have serious
consequences for overseas borrowing.2
Riaz Haq said…
#China Radio on #CPEC: Improvements in #energy & #transportation infrastructure have laid the foundation for the #industrial development of #Pakistan. The next phase of the CPEC project focuses on industrial cooperation. #industries #Manufacturing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2271510/cpecs-rapid-progress-laying-foundation-for-pakistans-industrial-development-cri-urdu

The projects implemented under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, will not only benefit certain areas but also development in Pakistan, commented China Radio International (CRI) Urdu on Sunday.

“The way in which the CPEC projects have been implemented over the past five years and the results that have emerged show that the purpose of building up CPEC is not to benefit certain areas, but to promote development in Pakistan,” the CRI Urdu said of the progress made in the construction of CPEC projects.

The Urdu service stated that the infrastructure, construction of industries and the elimination of energy shortages will provide an environment for Pakistan according to its resources, which will also benefit the people of Pakistan and guarantee a bright future.

The Orange Line Metro train in Lahore is the first electric public transport project, the introduction of which not only increased travel facilities for the people but also created new jobs.

In the past five years, CPEC projects have created 55,000 direct jobs in the road infrastructure sector, of which 48,000 have been created specifically for local Pakistanis.

According to a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, major projects with a direct investment of US $25 billion have been completed since the inception of CPEC. The projects completed under it are are part of The Belt and Road Initiative.

As for the shipping of cargo, the trade began at the Gwadar port during the first six months of this year, through which up to 20,000 tons of goods were shipped to Afghanistan; the initiative also created jobs in the shipping sector. There was no doubt that these projects entailed infrastructure as well as energy supply, and job opportunities, the CRI maintained.

According to the proposed two-gap model of economist Hollis B Channery, developing countries should introduce foreign investment and stimulate exports to boost their national economies. In this regard, CPEC has played an important role in the development of Pakistan.

The initiative has also addressed the issue of limited investment potential, insufficient foreign exchange savings and deficits in Pakistan, and has provided excellent quality for Pakistan’s economic growth.

Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is significant and it has created 70,000 jobs in Pakistan, the China-based Urdu service added.

Since its inception, CPEC has considered the elimination of energy shortages in Pakistan as an important sector for construction. Over a period of five years, energy projects under the CPEC framework added 3,340 MW of electricity to Pakistan in early April 2019, accounting for 11% of the installed capacity in the country.

The shortage of electricity has been significantly reduced and in addition to power generation projects, China has built the Matiari-Lahore (an 878 km long, 660 kV) HVDC transmission line project in Pakistan – the second HVDC transmission line in the world to extend the life of the country's power grid.

The construction of the corridor is progressing rapidly, significantly reducing Pakistan's energy problem in the process. Improvement in the transportation infrastructure has laid the foundation for the industrial development of Pakistan. The next phase of the project focuses on industrial cooperation.

Given the pace of the projects, their completion and results, it can be said that CPEC is undoubtedly a new impetus for the sustainable development of Pakistan, the CRI added.

Riaz Haq said…
Muneeb Sikander
@MuneebASikander
1/2 Pak Flood hit rural economy

Work produces things of value and transforms physical world in ways to make life better and survival possible.

But without organised and purposeful productive action, i.e., work, not possible for most people asis at the base of economic order


https://twitter.com/MuneebASikander/status/1572606162939289601?s=20&t=hDUZH4AawwsjZEdasU77jw

----------------

2/2 Flood hit rural areas

Agrarian to agriculture/livestock based or limited workshop industry. Limited Agri TFP + 15.4 million at poverty risk

1. Need for agri TFP improvement
2., Need to diversify economic base by Proto-industrialization,

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2021/how-jump-start-industrialization-sub-saharan-africa

https://twitter.com/MuneebASikander/status/1572606221076819970?s=20&t=hDUZH4AawwsjZEdasU77jw
Riaz Haq said…
Riaz Haq has left a new comment on your post "Growth of Pak-China Special Economic Zones ":

How to Jump-Start Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa
May 27, 2021
By Yi Wen , Iris Arbogast

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2021/how-jump-start-industrialization-sub-saharan-africa

KEY TAKEAWAYS
Most sub-Saharan nations have such low per capita incomes that it would take decades of double-digit growth to attain U.S. living standards.
Nations that industrialize successfully often begin with small-scale efforts and progress to mass-producing heavy industrial goods.
African countries could follow this development pattern with government-provided infrastructure and other support.

When considering income disparities across nations, the differences often can be striking, particularly for nations in the sub-Saharan region of Africa. Per capita income in many poor countries like these is 30 to 50 times smaller than in the U.S. In sub-Saharan Africa, 38 of 48 countries had gross national income (GNI) per capita levels below $2,300 in 2019, while GNI per capita was $65,850 in the U.S., according to data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database.

Generations of economists have studied economic development and given policy suggestions to officials in poor countries in Africa and elsewhere, but the disparities remain. To catch up to U.S. living standards, they would need to grow at about 11% per year for 40 to 50 years—an almost impossible standard that only China has come close to achieving in recent history.

The New Stage Theory of Development
The commonality between successful Asian countries’ industrialization (such as China’s rapid rise in the past 40 years) and successful European nations’ industrialization (such as the British Industrial Revolution in the 18th* and 19th centuries) is that these economies all went through three key stages during their industrialization, according to the New Stage Theory of Development (NST):1

Proto-industrialization, which features massive numbers of workshops in rural areas with small-scale production of basic consumer goods for long-distance trade
A first industrial revolution, which features mass production of labor-intensive, light consumer goods for domestic and international markets
A second industrial revolution, which features mass production of capital-intensive, heavy industrial goods
The first stage is very important but has been largely ignored by development economists. During this initial stage, rural farmers or poor households in urban areas use their free time to manufacture simple products and engage in long-distance trade. This raises their income and nurtures the formation of an increasingly unified market and primitive production networks, while developing entrepreneurship and labor skills. 2

During the second stage, large-scale factory systems become prevalent for light industries such as textiles, processed food, toys and furniture. This mass-production stage is labor-intensive, export oriented and benefits from poor countries’ comparative advantage in cheap labor. Mass production in the second stage is profitable only because proto-industrialization has created a large enough market and distribution networks for consumer goods.

Finally, the expansion of light industry in the second stage facilitates the formation of a large enough market for heavy industrial goods—such as means of transportation, energy, steel and heavy equipment. This is not only because the income of workers needs to be high enough to purchase big-ticket items such as automobiles, but because mass production of heavy industrial goods is profitable only after the second stage creates a mass-production chain to support their demand. 3

Riaz Haq said…
How to Jump-Start Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa
May 27, 2021
By Yi Wen , Iris Arbogast

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2021/how-jump-start-industrialization-sub-saharan-africa


In some newly emerging Asian economies, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, about 30% of rural households were participating in nonfarm wage employment in the early- to mid-2000s (29% in 2002 in Vietnam and 35% in 2005 in Bangladesh). Rates of nonfarm wage employment in poor African countries, such as Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi and Nigeria, remain between 5% and 18%.

In 2019, the GNI per capita in Bangladesh and Vietnam was $1,940 and $2,590, respectively. GNI per capita was $850 in Ethiopia, $2,220 in Ghana, $380 in Malawi and $2,030 in Nigeria. Although GNI per capita in Nigeria and Ghana is relatively high for the region, these economies are more dependent on income from oil and other natural resources than Bangladesh and Vietnam, according to data from the World Bank’s Development Indicators.

On the other hand, when China engaged in full-fledged proto-industrialization in the 1980s and kick-started its first industrial revolution around the early 1990s, the number of village workers as a fraction of the total rural labor force increased greatly. These workers went from 9% of the labor force in 1978 to 23% by 1988, and then increased to 30% by 2000.5
The Chinese experience in recent decades and the British industrial revolution in the 17th and 18th centuries imply that proto-industries must reach 40% to 50% of total agricultural value added—or about 25% to 30% of total rural labor force in their employment share—to spark a full-fledged first industrial revolution, or to render mass production of light consumer goods profitable and internationally competitive. 6
Based on this criterion, Vietnam and Bangladesh should possess the market conditions for supporting mass-production technologies in light industries like textiles. Indeed, these two countries are currently the largest clothing exporters after China, according to data from the World Trade Organization. But countries such as Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi and Nigeria do not appear ready to support mass-production technologies in light industries, since their textile and clothing exports are very low.

Policy Implications for Africa
Based on the New Stage Theory of Development, we have a few policy suggestions for countries where rural manufacturing is not yet prevalent. Policymakers should provide every means possible to enhance proto-industrialization, which will help their countries embark on a healthy path of economic development.

The goal is to absorb as many rural households as possible into small-scale manufacturing workshops to increase their income and create a primitive supply chain and a disciplined labor force. This is one of the critical steps for nurturing a mass market to support full-fledged mass-production in light industries.

Governments should provide the necessary infrastructure and social capital to allow farmers to organize themselves into firms and send their goods to distant markets. Part of the income earned could be used to support government initiatives such as building local roads and canals, which reduce transportation costs and are a better use of resources than large projects like high-speed trains—which are better suited to the second industrial revolution stage.

Successfully creating proto-industrial supply chains, commercial distribution networks and competition between proto-industrial firms would eventually help give rise to large firms that mass produce light industrial goods such as textiles. A nation can also be more likely to attract large foreign firms that outsource their labor-intensive manufacturing industries by using subsidization policies such as providing ports, roads and free land as incentives.

* This article has been updated to correct the start of British industrialization.
Riaz Haq said…
UNIDO Report 2022 Industrial Stats (Manufacturing Value Added Per Capita)

https://www.unido.org/publications/international-yearbook-industrial-statistics


Afghanistan $28

Bangladesh $356

Brazil $875

China $3,076

Germany $8,270

India $331

Indonesia $776

Iran $712

Iraq $123

Japan $8,110

Kenya $145

Nepal $48

Malaysia

Pakistan $176

Philippines $656

Russia $1,394

Turkey $2,271

UK $4,202

USA $7,343

Popular posts from this blog

Pakistani Women's Growing Particpation in Workforce

Bill Gates and BMW Back Pakistani-American Mujeeb Ijaz's Battery Startup

Pakistan's Saadia Zahidi Leads World Economic Forum's Gender Parity Effort