Pakistan's Sugar Crisis and Dietary Habits
World raw sugar futures hit a 28-year high of 23.52 cents a pound last week as the fears of a bad sugarcane harvest grew stronger. The key background factor is the continuing scarce supply scenario in the global market because of weather factors, particularly in India, the second largest producer of sugarcane, according to the Wall Street Journal. While India is dealing with too little monsoon rain, the largest sugar producer Brazil is being hurt by too much rain.
At 4.89 million tons of annual sugar production, Pakistan is the tenth largest sugar producer in the world, and yet it has to import sugar, exposing it to the effects of sugar shortages and rising prices in the world. Pakistanis consume over 25 Kg of sugar per person versus India's 20Kg. Sugar cost Rs 25 per Kg (30 US cents) at the start of 2009 and now costs more than Rs 50, says independent economic analyst A.B. Shahid. This doubling of the price is likely to further enrich the large number of sugar producing politicians who are already rich and powerful.
The most pessimistic estimates show a 23 percent decline in sugar crop production this year. While last year Pakistan produced 4.7 million tons, farmers are on track to produce 3.2 million tons this year. That means a severe shortfall as annual national consumption is 4.2 million tons.
Both sugar production and per capita consumption as well as overall calorie intake have been rising in Pakistan. In the last four decades, per capita calorie intake in Pakistan has grown from 1750-2450 (kilo)calories with an average annual growth rate of 0.90%. Nevertheless, 20% of Pakistan's population is still undernourished. Sugar consumption has been showing an increasing trend for the last 15 years. It has increased from 2.89 million tons in 1995-96 to 3.95 million tons in 2005-06. One of the many reasons behind this increase is rise in the total population of the country, which has reached 170 million. The per capita sugar consumption data shows that it has also risen from 22.2 kg in 1995 to 25.8 kg in 2004-05. For 2008-09, the overall sugar consumption is forecast at over 4 million tons, which is less than the target production. But the government is importing about 300,000 tons of sugar to ensure availability of sufficient stock to cover any shortfalls from the usual smuggling to Afghanistan which remains a fact of life in Pakistan.
In addition to relatively large per capita sugar consumption, Pakistanis also consume significantly higher amounts of meat, poultry and milk products than other South Asian nations, getting more protein and almost half their daily, per capita calorie intake from non-food-grain sources.
The fact that Pakistanis have a sweet tooth is not lost on the nation's ruling elite, particularly the powerful political families and the Pakistani military. While the military owns Fauji sugar mills, more than 50% of the sugar in Pakistan is produced in sugar mills owned by the most powerful politicians of all major parties and their families.
Multiple sources indicate that the mills owned by President Asif Ali Zardari’s family and the ruling PPP leaders include Ansari Sugar Mills, Mirza Sugar Mills, Pangrio Sugar Mills, Sakrand Sugar Mills and Kiran Sugar Mills. Ashraf Sugar mills is owned by PPP leader and incumbent ZTBL President Ch Zaka Ashraf.
The media reports also indicate Kamalia Sugar Mills and Layyah Sugar Mills are owned by PML-N leaders. Former minister Abbas Sarfaraz is the owner of five out of six sugar mills in the NWFP. Nasrullah Khan Dareshak owns Indus Sugar Mills while Jahangir Khan Tareen has two sugar mills; JDW Sugar Mills and United Sugar Mills. PML-Q leader Anwar Cheema owns National Sugar Mills while Chaudhrys family is or was the owner of Pahrianwali Sugar Mills as it is being heard that they have sold the said mills. Senator Haroon Akhtar Khan owns Tandianwala Sugar Mills while Pattoki Sugar Mills is owned by Mian Mohammad Azhar, former Governor Punjab. PML-F leader Makhdoom Ahmad Mehmood owns Jamaldin Wali Sugar Mills. Chaudhry Muneer owns two mills in Rahimyar Khan district and Ch Pervaiz Elahi and former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Khusro Bakhtiar have shares in these mills.
Among other basic food commodities, per million population wheat consumption in Pakistan is 115,000 metric tons versus 63,000 metric tons in India, according to published data.
According to the FAO, the average dairy consumption of the developing countries is still very low (45 kg of all dairy products in liquid milk equivalent), compared with the average of 220 kg in the industrial countries. Few developing countries have per capita consumption exceeding 150 kg (Argentina, Uruguay and some pastoral countries in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa). Among the most populous countries, only Pakistan, at 153 kg per capita, has such a level. In South Asia, where milk and dairy products are preferred foods, India has only 64 kg and Bangladesh 14 kg. East Asia has only 10 kg.
While it remains very low by world standards, meat and poultry consumption has also increased significantly in Pakistan over the last decade. Per capita availability of eggs went from 23 in 1991 to 43 in 2005, according to research by N. Daghir. Per capita meat consumption in Pakistan now stands at 12.4 Kg versus India's 4.6 Kg.
In spite of South Asia's growing horticulture industry, the intake of fruits and vegetables in India and Pakistan is surprisingly low at less than 100 grams per day per capita, according to the World Health Organization. This figure is far lower than the 300 grams of fruits and vegetables per person in Australia, EU and the US.
In spite of the fact that there is about 22% malnutrition in Pakistan, the average per capita calorie intake of about 2500 calories is within normal range. But the nutritional balance necessary for good health appears to be lacking in Pakistanis' dietary habits. One way to alleviate the sugar crisis in Pakistan is to reduce sugar consumption and substitute it with greater intake of fruits and vegetables. There is an urgent need for better health and nutritional education through strong public-private partnership to promote healthier eating in Pakistan.
Here is a video clip about sugar crisis:
Related Links:
Agricultural Diversification in South Asia
Nutrition in Pakistan
FAO Report on Food Consumption Patterns
Wheat Consumption in India and Pakistan
World of Sugar
Pakistan's Livestock Farming
Comments
India Pakistan
2300 Cal 2250 Cal
71% Carbs 63% Carbs
10% Protein 10% Protein
19% Fat 27% Fat
Pakistan’s annual sugar consumption is about 4.2 million tonnes, and export of the sweetener has been banned for nearly three years due to reduced output. But this year, the country is expecting about 5 million tonnes from the 2011/12 crop, with carryover stocks of up to 600,000 tonnes, Javed Kayani, chairman of the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA), told Reuters.
“Even after meeting domestic needs and maintaining strategic stocks, Pakistan could still export up to 500,000 tonnes of refined sugar, and there will be no shortage in the country,” Kayani said.
“This will also help us make payments to growers and meet our financial obligations in time, as the government is delaying a decision to buy sugar from local mills,” he added.
Government officials were not immediately available to comment.
The state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) on Friday re-issued a tender to buy 200,000 tonnes of white sugar from local mills in a bid to cut cost after domestic prices fell in recent weeks to around 55 rupees ($0.61) per kg from about 70 rupees in November.
The tender was originally issued on Nov. 3. The government buys sugar every year for its strategic reserves and for its subsidy scheme. A growers’ body, Agri Forum Pakistan, has asked the government to either buy sugar from local mills or allow them to export so that they can pay outstanding dues to farmers.
If exports are allowed, Pakistani sugar would add to plentiful global supplies.
ICE raw sugar futures slipped to a 6-1/2-month low on Thursday. March white sugar futures on Liffe lost $1.40 to finish at $596.30 per tonne in modest volume of around 3,550 lots.
Pakistan had to import about 1.2 million tonnes of sugar last year after production fell to 3.1 million tonnes from the 2009/10 crop, when many farmers switched to more profitable crops.
The country, however, produced, 4.1 million tonnes of refined sugar in 2010/11 (July-June) year despite devastating floods in 2010.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/16/pakistani-millers-want-sugar-export-ban-lifted-on-plentiful-output.html
In 2011/12 K&N’s expects to produce 80 million layer and broiler chicks, reports thepoultrysite.com.
In the 1960’s and 1970’s, obtaining safe, reliable sources of poultry feed was an insurmountable challenge in Pakistan. This led Khalil to set up his own feed mill to produce feed for K&N’s operations at Karachi in 1971. With the growing need of feed for the integrated production operations in Central Punjab province and Northern areas of the country, a feed mill established by a multi-national company at Lahore, was acquired by K&N’s to take advantage of low-cost feed ingredients available in the Central part of Pakistan.
The growth of commercial poultry production through the decades changed the mindset of consumers towards farm raised broilers and eggs, helped by lower prices and greater availability. Today, Desi chicken and eggs are produced in lower volumes and considered more of a delicacy.
Yet the strength of the live/wet chicken market culture, the negligible overheads of roadside sales – a butcher’s knife costs less than US$1 – and the reassurance of Halal slaughter remain significant influences slowing the uptake of processing, says Adil Sattar.
Practical problems, particularly the limited availability of cool chain facilities and frequent power breakdowns, have to be overcome with production and distribution of processed products inevitably involving high overheads.
"Earlier, within our industry, poultry processing was considered a non-viable poultry business activity as many firms had tried but ended up closing down their operations," says Adil. "At K&N’s, we endeavoured to develop the market, and other companies are now looking to start processing operations."
Today, chicken is the most popular protein source in Pakistan, primarily through the industry’s growth and success leading to lower cost and widespread availability, with per-capita consumption about 7kg (15.4lb) per year. The tradition is to eat chicken at home, always skinless cooked in curries, with rice or barbecued.
Restaurants offer local cuisine including a variety of curries, barbecue dishes and different types of rice, with a number of upmarket cafes and restaurants serving western cuisine and many of the international fast food caterers such as McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, Nando’s, Hardees and Subway also present.
In 2011/12 K&N’s expects to produce 80 million layer and broiler chicks, reports thepoultrysite.com.
In the 1960’s and 1970’s, obtaining safe, reliable sources of poultry feed was an insurmountable challenge in Pakistan. This led Khalil to set up his own feed mill to produce feed for K&N’s operations at Karachi in 1971. With the growing need of feed for the integrated production operations in Central Punjab province and Northern areas of the country, a feed mill established by a multi-national company at Lahore, was acquired by K&N’s to take advantage of low-cost feed ingredients available in the Central part of Pakistan.
The growth of commercial poultry production through the decades changed the mindset of consumers towards farm raised broilers and eggs, helped by lower prices and greater availability. Today, Desi chicken and eggs are produced in lower volumes and considered more of a delicacy.
Yet the strength of the live/wet chicken market culture, the negligible overheads of roadside sales – a butcher’s knife costs less than US$1 – and the reassurance of Halal slaughter remain significant influences slowing the uptake of processing, says Adil Sattar.
Practical problems, particularly the limited availability of cool chain facilities and frequent power breakdowns, have to be overcome with production and distribution of processed products inevitably involving high overheads.
"Earlier, within our industry, poultry processing was considered a non-viable poultry business activity as many firms had tried but ended up closing down their operations," says Adil. "At K&N’s, we endeavoured to develop the market, and other companies are now looking to start processing operations."
Today, chicken is the most popular protein source in Pakistan, primarily through the industry’s growth and success leading to lower cost and widespread availability, with per-capita consumption about 7kg (15.4lb) per year. The tradition is to eat chicken at home, always skinless cooked in curries, with rice or barbecued.
Restaurants offer local cuisine including a variety of curries, barbecue dishes and different types of rice, with a number of upmarket cafes and restaurants serving western cuisine and many of the international fast food caterers such as McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, Nando’s, Hardees and Subway also present.
The country will produce 4.735 million tonnes of sugar in the crushing season of 2011-12 and the carryover stock of 0.5 million tonnes of sugar will take the total to 5.2 million tonnes. Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) members stated this during a meeting of the Sugar Advisory Board held in the Ministry of Industries, which was chaired by the Ministry of Industries additional secretary on Monday.
Trading Corporation of Pakistan chairman, Punjab Food secretary, representatives of Cane Commissioners of Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, State Bank of Pakistan officials, PSMA members and representatives of the sugarcane growers associations attended the meeting. The representatives of the provinces provided the meeting with the statistics about the sugar produced and the estimated production in this crushing season which will end by around March 20 in Northern Punjab and KP and by March 25 in Southern Punjab and Sindh.
It was informed that Punjab has crushed 2.7 million tonnes of sugar, Sindh 1.027 million tonnes and KP 0.275 million tonnes. Representatives of the PSMA informed that the keeping in view the current average daily production of sugar and the sugarcane available with the growers, Punjab is expected to produce 3.1 million tonnes of sugar, Sindh 1.26 million tonnes and KP 0.375 million tonnes.
The association suggested that the government should procure 0.4 million tonnes of sugar from the domestic market instead of importing the sugar at a higher price. The ministry said that the recommendations of this meeting would be discussed at the higher forum for further decision.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012\03\13\story_13-3-2012_pg5_3
The government intends to export 400,000 tons of surplus sugar and believes that the performance of the agricultural sector is improving despite natural calamities.
“The good news about surplus sugar was given to President Asif Ali Zardari during a meeting at the presidency by a delegation of the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association led by its chairman Javed A. Kayani,” president’s spokesman Farhatullah Babar said on Thursday.
The PSMA chief said sugar production stood at about 4.7 million tons. After meeting the domestic requirement of 4.2 million tons, about 400,000 tons of sugar is available for export. “Export will enable mill owners to make payments to growers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh,” he said.
Sources in the agriculture sector said the country was exporting wheat and rice and sugar would be the third major commodity to be exported. They said the Punjab government was already exporting wheat and the centre was sending the surplus crop to Iran.
President Zardari expressed satisfaction over the sugar production and said: “It is a matter of great satisfaction that despite unprecedented natural calamities the country is not only in a position to meet its requirements but is also poised to export sugar.”
He said the government was committed to working in consultation with the sugar industry to solve its problems. “Only through the pro-active involvement of the business community and industrialists, the continuity of policies could be
ensured,” the president was quoted as saying.
He advised the government to hold a meeting with the PSMA so that its proposal to export sugar could be sent to the Economic Coordination Committee of the cabinet for consideration.
http://dawn.com/2012/05/04/plan-to-export-400000-tons-of-sugar/
This finding does not appear to be credible.
All anecdotal evidence suggests that most Pakistani children are growing up to be taller than their parents. All one has to do is keep one's eyes open & observe.
The average height in Pakistan of 20 yrs old males is now 5' 6" vs 5' 4" in India. If one is to believe this "research", then one must also believe that the avg height in Pakistan in 1960s was 5' 10'' which is simply untrue based on all known evidence, anecdotal or otherwise.
In addition, if worsening malnutrition were indeed an issue, the life expectancy in Pakistan would not have doubled since independence. Published data shows that life expectancy in Pakistan has jumped from 32 years in 1947 to 67 years in 2009, and per Capita inflation-adjusted PPP income has risen from $766 in 1948 to $2603 in 2009.
http://www.interbasket.net/news/4385/2009/09/average-height-by-country-males-20-years/
http://tribune.com.pk/story/375257/height-of-pakistanis-has-fallen-4-inches-over-50-years-say-experts/
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/pplpi/docarc/wp44_3.pdf
Growing milk consumption can help reduce malnutrition in Pakistan.
Here's a story illustrating the value of milk in reducing malnutrition in Africa:
WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran kept a promise she made to WFP-supported Rilima health centre last July by giving two cows worth 1,360,000 Frw to help reduce malnutrition among poor communities in the area.
WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran kept a promise she made to WFP-supported Rilima health centre last July by giving two cows worth 1,360,000 Frw to help reduce malnutrition among poor communities in the area.
The milk produced by the cows will be used to feed severely malnourished children and breast feeding mothers. “The health centre expects to get 50 litres of milk to feed over 200 malnourished children per day,” says Pascal Habyarimana assistant director of the health centre.
Rilima nutrition centre assists more than 37,000 people in the area. WFP provides monthly fortified supplementary food to malnourished children under the age of five years and malnourished pregnant or nursing women.
“Since 2009, more than 20,000 malnourished children have been supported and recovered from malnutrition", says WFP Rwanda Country Director Abdoulaye Balde. "WFP will continue to provide relevant suport to reduce malnutrition among poor communities in Rilima sector”.
Parents and nursing women come to the centre not only to collect fortified food provided by WFP but also to be trained on good nutrition practices. Training is focused mainly on balanced meals, hygiene, disease prevention and family planning.
The idea is that, after receiving assistance from nutritoon centres, parents can become agents for change in their communities with the help of a a trained community health worker.
Local mothers are currently learning how to organize vegetable gardens at home. A garden can be established on a small plot and maintained with waste water from the kitchen. The nutrition centre itself has a model garden and vegetables from it are used for cooking demonstrations.
In partnership with World Vision and Rilima health centre, beneficiaries are encouraged to develop good cooking practice at home and share them with their neighbours.
http://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-executive-director-donates-cows-reduce-malnutrition-rwanda
The licences have been issued to Mehran Sugar Mills Limited for its 14.06MW bagasse-based generation facility in Tando Allahyar and Alliance Sugar Mills (Pvt) Limited for its 30MW co-generation plant in Ghotki, they said.
The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet in its meeting held on March 6, 2013, had approved the framework for power co-generation 2013 bagasse and biomass, as an addendum to the Renewable Energy Policy 2006.
This framework is effective for all high pressure co-generation projects, utilising bagasse and biomass, the officials said.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority had already approved Rs10.50 per unit as the upfront tariff for the power generation through sugar mills by utilising sugarcane bagasse.
This upfront tariff has been approved to encourage sugar mills to generate around 1,500MW on fast-track basis.
At present, hydel generation is costing Rs2.50 per unit, generation through natural gas is costing around Rs5 per unit, thermal generation from Rs14 to Rs18 per unit and electricity generated through diesel is costing Rs23 to Rs28 per unit, the officials said.
The approval of the upfront tariff for sugar mills will encourage them to plan their investment in this new sector for steering the country out of the power crisis, the officials said, adding, the government plans to generate around 3,000MW cheaper electricity through sugarcane bagasse on fast-track basis and investors will be facilitated and encouraged.
Necessary amendments will also be made to the existing co-generation and renewable energy policies to make it simplified and investor-friendly, they said.
Pakistan is the fifth largest producer of sugarcane with the production of 50 million tons of sugarcane annually, yielding over 10 million tons of bagasse.
Power generation from bagasse will not only reduce the furnace oil import, but also save Rs33 billion to Rs49 billion worth of foreign exchange per annum, the officials said.
The country has 87 sugar mills with the capacity to generate 3,000MW from bagasse in winter season.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-277319-Sugar-mill-owners-awarded-power-generation-licences
As in most debates in Pakistan there are sharply polarised views on the regulation and deregulation of private-sector activities. Some advocate regulation by the state as an effective tool to curb the market’s excesses. Others think markets should be left to themselves and the state should have few regulations.
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Financial markets have some unique features that are missing in product and factor markets. This distinction is lost sight of in this polarised debate. Shareholders’ equity in bank balance sheets ranges from 8pc to 10pc. The banks are highly leveraged as they raise 90pc to 92pc of their money from depositors and borrowings from other financial institutions and markets. This high leverage effect magnifies both upside gains and downside risks, inducing the bank management, whose compensations are linked to short-term profits, to resort to excessive risk-taking.
The upside gains of the leveraged bets accrue mainly to shareholders and managers, while downside losses are so heavy that the state has to bail them out using taxpayers’ money. This asymmetric treatment of the risks incurred and the accrual of rewards places a heavy responsibility on regulators to ensure that shareholders, and not taxpayers, bear the brunt of excessive risk-taking. Therefore, given the market’s structure in the financial sector, state regulation is not only justifiable but desirable.
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The same logic cannot be applied to the market for goods and inputs. If a farmer’s income is determined by forces outside his control he has no incentive for higher production and improved productivity. In Pakistan, the government controls wheat prices, and fertiliser prices are subsidised, largely benefiting big farmers. Irrigation water is allocated in a discriminatory manner inducing inefficiency. The food department procures wheat at official prices from those who are influential or who grease their palms. Under such stringent price and quantity regulation why should the average farmer maximise his efforts to produce more?
The differential in the yield between a progressive and an average farmer ranges between 50pc to 70pc. If there was deregulation of prices and quantity (except for a certain amount of reserves), wheat production could jump to at least 30 million tons — a conservative estimate.
Contrast this with the deregulated milk market. Except for hygiene regulations, milk supply and demand determine the prices. The fastest growth in the average farmer’s cash income has taken place through money from milk. For other non-cereal products, market committees that are inefficient and operate in collusion with officials of the agriculture department have distorted prices.
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The sugar market has, at different times, faced waves of regulation, fixed cane price and opaque market interventions. The government steps in when there is surplus production; it procures from local sugar mills and sells in international markets at loss.
In times of shortages, the government imports sugar, and sells at a price mostly to the mills’ advantage. Efficient and inefficient mills are treated equally; there is no pressure on the latter to exit the market as they are insulated from facing the market test. Thus over-regulation, procurement by the government at non-market prices and intrusive and discriminatory practices have tilted the sugar market against the consumers. Here deregulation is badly needed.
In the manufacturing sector, as many as 40 agencies and departments of the federal, provincial and local governments are involved in giving clearances, no-objection certificates, grants of permits, licences, etc. Most factory owners have reconciled to this situation, making monthly payments to functionaries of these departments commensurate with their nuisance value. A labour inspector can arbitrarily shut down a factory, causing enormous loss to the owners, for whom the easy course is to keep the inspector contented.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1144559/deregulating-the-economy
"A majority of sugar mills belongs to Anwar Majeed in the province and how many mills one person can set up," Pakistan Muslim League (PML-F) woman lawmaker Nusrat Sehar Abbasi asked to Sindh Industries Minister Muhammad Ali Malkani during a questions-answers session.
Replying to the question, the minister said that "anyone can establish as many mills he wants and there is no bar if anyone intends to set up 100 mills he can", adding that the Sindh government issued the required NOC to applicants.
"There are 35 sugar mills in the province," he told the house, saying that "the department easily issues NOC to applicants to set up a new mill". In 2013, he said the Sindh government had allocated Rs270.30 million to revamp roads infrastructure in SITE Industrial Area in Karachi.
Through the allocation, he said, 14.2 kilometres of roads network, roadside gutters and other communication and civic infrastructure had been repaired. To a question, he replied that the Sindh government did not own any ill industrial unit. "There are total 6,129 private industrial units are running in the province of which 690 are rice mills and 182 flour mills," he added.
The Sindh Bank denied encashment of compensation cheques which the Sindh government had provided to each family of the Shikarpur blast victims, PML-F lawmaker Imtiaz Shaikh told the house, saying that the bank administration had told the victims' families that they had been directed to deny conversion into cash.
http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/183:pakistan/1152931:majority-of-sugar-mills-in-sindh-belong-to-a-single-mpa:-pml-f-mpa-tells-sindh-assembly?date=2015-02-18
Rangers raid offices of Zardari’s close aide in Karachi
The raids and arrests were confirmed by the paramilitary force in a press release, which stated that an intelligence-based raid on a company’s offices at II Chundrigar Road and Hockey Stadium was carried out. “Five people were rounded up and a huge cache of arms and ammunition was also seized from the premises,” it added. “Those who have been detained include Shahzad Shahid, Rajab Ali Rajper, Ajmal Khan, Kamran Munir Ansari and Kashif Hussain.” It added that the seized ammunition comprises 17 Kalashnikovs, 4 pistols, 3,255 bullets, 9 ball bombs. The statement said legal action will be taken against the suspects and their facilitators after a complete scrutiny of weapons and documents.
Majid is a Karachi-based businessman and a close friend of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) co-chairperson Zardari, who looks after his businesses including sugar mills. Majid’s name came to fore for the first time after former Sindh home minister Zulfiqar Mirza revealed the relation between Zardari and Majid, alleging that Majid is a partner of Zardari in corruption deals. Reacting upon the raid, information adviser Maula Bux Chandio said that the paramilitary force did not take Sindh government and police into confidence before the raid. Speaking to the media, he labelled the raid ‘political victimisation’ of the party. “The action has been taken after federal interior minister’s remarks against PPP.”
Zardari returns to a different role
Differences with IG
Majid is also alleged to have been involved in the transfers and postings of police officers in Sindh and is believed to have played a vital role in the chief minister’s recent decision to send Sindh IG Allah Dino Khawaja on a ‘forced leave’.
A police officer, requesting anonymity, said that Khawaja had differences with the PPP leadership with regards to issues such as transfer and postings of the policemen. However, the recent differences between Khawaja and Majid emerged when the latter refused to involve the police in a dispute between sugarcane growers and millers. It became the main reason behind sending IG on a ‘forced leave’.
“They two men had a verbal spat and then Majid complained to Zardari and asked him to remove the IG,” the officer explained.
Interestingly, the matter is only not limited to transfer and postings of police officers but also relates to raids and recovery of sophisticated arms and ammunitions from a bungalow in Clifton.
Sindh govt sends IG on ‘forced leave’
During the second week of November, a huge cache of weapons was recovered when law enforcement agencies raided a house in the Old Clifton area. Eight bags full of weapons were seized from the house, which included seven M-4 rifles, six sub-machine guns, two 7mm rifles, two .223 rifles, four 12-bore, one G3, one 222 rifle and two 9mm pistols. Two police caps and two daggers were also found from the house.
According to police sources, the weapons belonged to Nisar Morai, the former chairperson of the Fisherman Cooperative Society. He was also known to be a frontman of Zardari. The police have remained tight-lipped over the weapons bust and said that the weapons were recovered from a garbage dump. A case was registered at the Boat Basin police station against unidentified persons. A source in the police department said that the police had been pressurised from publicising the news and IG Khawaja was asked not to publicise the news and return the weapons back from where they were seized. However, the IG refused to cooperate with the Sindh government.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1273064/huge-cache-arms-seized-anwar-majids-offices/
"Sugar is critical commodity in a country (Pakistan) where people consume vast amounts of sweet tea, soft drinks, and cakes, using about 4 million metric tons of sugar a year. .....Sugar is also very profitable. Pakistan is among the top five producers of sugar cane in the world, employing more than two million seasonable laborers at harvest time, and sugar refining is the second largest agribusiness after flour milling. According to National Accountability Bureau, a majority of country'd eighty-plus sugar mills are owned by political families, including Sharifs and Bhuttos, as well as members of parliament and several military-controlled enterprises."
"In Pakistan, the sugar industry is actually a political industry in which powerful politicians on all sides are involved", said a 2009 statement from the Sugar Mills Workers Federation that described how the big millers cheat mall growers through fake middlemen, then manipulate sugar prices by pressuring the government to stimulate or discourage exports depending on how much cane has been harvested."
"Throughout the 1990s, during two periods of rule by Sharifs and two by his archrial Benazir Bhutto, the privatization process became a game of grab and run. Investing of investing in solid projects, many business groups colluded with corrupt officials to make quick profits. They borrowed huge sums (from state-owned banks) without collateral, created and dissolved ghost factories, purchased state assets at token prices, avoided paying taxes, defaulted on shaky loans, or deferred paying them indefinitely....Major defaulters and beneficiaries of loan write-offs, granted by both the Bhuttos and Sharif governments, included some of Pakistan's wealthiest business families-- Manshas, Saigols, Hashwanis, Habibs, Bhuttos and Sharifs......using the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), the (Musharraf) regime (after year 2000) went to prosecute eighteen hundred cases of corruption to recover nearly $3.4 billion in assets."
https://books.google.com/books?id=Y-wU1aVyM9IC&pg=PA40&lpg=PA40&dq=pakistan+sugar+mafia+politician&source=bl&ots=W7LPxh8OQW&sig=9zTBvtFcwCSIXjs6Hxz-HdylcXg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiLvtLu-4vRAhVpqVQKHXBDCSQQ6AEISjAN#v=onepage&q=loan%20defaulters&f=false
Dr Ikramul Haq, Huzaima Bukhari August 27, 2017 Leave a comment
The institutional structure of economy is designed to generate rents for the elite at the expense of the middle classes and the poor. So what is at stake?
http://tns.thenews.com.pk/post-panama-case-pakistan/
The hidden wealth of some of the world’s most prominent leaders, politicians and celebrities has been revealed by an unprecedented leak of millions of documents that show the myriad ways in which the rich can exploit secretive offshore tax regimes — The Panama Papers: how the world’s rich and famous hide their money offshore [The Guardians, April 3, 2016]
Through the report titled, Panama Papers: Politicians, Criminal & Rogue Industry That Hide Their Cash, some of the crooks of the world — drug dealers, mafias, corrupt politicians and tax evaders — have been exposed. Pakistanis who are part of this undesirable club are unveiled through a year-long investigation project by journalist Umar Cheema in his write-up, Pak politicians, businessmen own companies abroad [The News, April 4, 2016].
Post-Panama case Pakistan is emerging as a dangerous place where the government is openly protecting and patronising the convicted and accused. There is no will to end state-sponsorship of organised crimes. Notorious laws — sections 5 and 9 of the Protection of Economic Reforms Act, 1992 and section 111(4) of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 — are still protecting dirty money, financing of terrorism and encouraging tax evasion. In the presence of such laws, the judiciary has punished the three-time elected prime minister — an unprecedented move that can be a starting point to end mafia-like rule in Pakistan as happened in Colombia after years of power of dirty money muzzling institutions or eliminating those who were not purchasable.
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How can we eliminate corruption and tax evasion in Pakistan in the presence of permanent money-laundering and tax amnesty scheme in the form of section 111(4) of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 that facilitates the whitening of dirty money and tax evaded funds. It ensures that for money brought into Pakistan through normal banking channels no question would be asked by tax officials or FIA. Through this section, criminals and tax evaders get their undeclared money whitened by paying just an extra 3 to 4 per cent to any money exchange dealer to get remittances fixed in their names.
It is thus clear, brilliantly explained by Dr. Akmal Hussain in Restructuring for economic democracy, that “the institutional structure of Pakistan’s economy is designed to generate rents for the elite at the expense of the middle classes and the poor.” It is this structural characteristic of the economy and not just bribery that prevents sustained high economic growth and equity in Pakistan. Unless we change this structure of economy, the morbid story of corruption and tax evasion will continue. In the presence of these maladies, no decision of Supreme Court can help Pakistan progress and become an egalitarian state.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/consumption-trends-sugar-pakistan-jawad/
Pakistan has cut its cotton production estimate for this year as competition from other crops shrinks the planted area in the country’s biggest growing province, according to a government official.
The food ministry reduced its target to 12.7 million bales of 170 kilograms apiece for the year through March from 15 million bales previously, the official said, asking not to be identified because of internal policy. Pakistan is the world’s fifth-largest grower, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
While output is still forecast to be higher than last year, the revision will be a blow for Pakistan’s $13 billion textiles sector, which employs 10 million people, and accounts for about 8% of the economy and more than half foreign exchange earnings. The country is spending about $1.5 billion a year on cotton imports due to a shortage, said Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer of Arif Habib Commodities.
The target has been revised because competing crops like sugar, corn and rice are limiting the area under cultivation in Punjab, the official said. The estimate for the province has been cut to 7.9 million bales from 10.6 million bales.
Sugar Rush
Farmers have shifted to sugar cane from cotton because of higher government support prices, which have increased threefold in a decade. The nation’s sugar area surged 18% in three years to 1.34 million hectares in 2017-18, before slipping last year mainly due to water shortages.
Provinces set support prices for sugar cane to establish a minimum amount that farmers receive from mills.
After climbing to 14 million bales in 2014-15, cotton production is estimated to have declined to 9.9 million bales in 2018-19, the lowest in at least 17 years, mainly because of reduced acreage. The area has shrunk about 20% since 2014-15, according to government data.
Locust Threat
This year’s cotton crop is facing another threat. A massive swarm of locusts has migrated from Iran to Pakistan. The government has deployed aircraft and spray-mounted vehicles to treat about 10,000 acres in Sindh province, Muhammad Hashim Popalzai, secretary of the food ministry, said last month. Authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage.
Pakistan is desperate to prevent a further decline in cotton output as it seeks to shore up the economy after securing this month a 13th bailout of about $6 billion from the International Monetary Fund. Cotton imports by the textile industry more than doubled in three years to 2017-18, mainly from the U.S. and India, according to central bank data.
Lower production of cotton not only crippled export prospects, but instead caused hefty imports, according to the latest quarterly report of the State Bank of Pakistan. Still, those purchases are now coming more cheaply, with futures trading at their lowest level in three years in New York.
“We are badly hurt,” said Asif Inam, vice chairman of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association. About 30 textile mills have shut down in the last five years partly due to poor availability of cotton, he said.
in the Central Asia Regional
Economic Cooperation Program
Member Countries
Review of Trends, Challenges,
and Opportunities
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEArch INSTITuTE
DECEMBER 2019
Food Intake
The average daily per capita calorific intake was estimated at 2,440 kcal in 2013. Figure A.62 displays the
proportion of calorific intake contributed by each of the major food groups. Cereals accounted for 48% of
daily calorific intake in 2013. Calorific intake from animal sources comprised 22%, while fruit and vegetables
accounted for 2%. The average daily per capita protein consumption was estimated at 65.5 grams, while the
average dietary energy supply adequacy was estimated to be 108% in 2015–2017.
https://www.adb.org/publications/trends-agricultural-development-carec-countries
Khurram HusainUpdated April 09, 2020
https://www.dawn.com/news/1547706
Listen carefully to what Jahangir Tareen, the man at the centre of the storm, had to say during his first two TV appearances since the scandal broke. Both appearances were on Monday night, one at 8pm and the other at 10pm. And his message during both was the same.
The first thing he did in both interviews was to underline his deep roots in the party, which critically for him go back to the aftermath of the defeat of 2013 and the ensuing days of rage that were the dharnas. In doing so, he let the cat out of the bag, ie one of Imran Khan’s principal grievances aired from every platform he had at his disposal in those days, about the 2013 elections being ‘rigged’ and the ‘35 punctures’ was in fact wrong.
“There was rigging,” Tareen said, “but only on a few seats, mostly it was all just about raising a hue and cry.” He then went on to explain how, in the aftermath of the elections, he showed Imran Khan the scale of the defeat the party had just suffered. “Half the seats in Punjab that we lost in 2013, we were not even in second place; in some cases, we were not even on the table, we were third, fourth or fifth! In those in which we came second, we secured 20 per cent of the vote, and in 66pc of them, we didn’t even get 20pc of the vote!”
He says he tried to explain to the prime minister what that meant. “We had the wrong candidates, we need to change our candidates, this is Punjab, there are political families here and until you bring them in you cannot become prime minister,” he said.
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It will be instructive to see how all this develops, but if history is any guide, then it is likely to not go very far. Already the affair has blown the lid off. Somebody like Tareen saying on national TV that the post-2013 rigging allegations were nothing but ‘noise’ and the election was lost because the party ran with the wrong candidates is explosive material. What else may come spilling out if this factional fighting intensifies?
There is one person who cannot afford to have this escalate, and that is Imran Khan himself. Last year, when the medicine price hike shook his government, he was moved to fire his then health minister, Aamir Mehmood Kiani, an old stalwart of the party. The firing happened in April 2019, and by July of that same year, Kiani was appointed secretary general of the party. Today, he appears standing next to Imran Khan on important occasions.
The sugar cartels are not worried. Watch Tareen’s appearances carefully, note the soft, understated confidence, the chuckles when the scale and scope of his meddling in government affairs is read out to him. But above all, note the quiet smirk on his face throughout the interviews. That is what says it all.
https://www.riazhaq.com/2018/04/pakistan-daal-consumption-declines.html
Pakistan's per capita daal (pulse) consumption has sharply declined to about 7 kg/person from about 15 Kg/person in 1960s, according to data released by Food and Agriculture Organization and reported in Pakistani media. Meat has replaced it as the main source of protein with per capita meat consumption rising from 11.7 kg in 2000 to 32 kg in 2016. It is projected to rise to 47 kg by 2020, according to a paper published in the Korean Journal of Food Science of Animal Resources.
https://www.ft.com/content/0dcae657-3964-4951-8e63-bbaa86e1d893
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https://www.ft.com/content/0dcae657-3964-4951-8e63-bbaa86e1d893
When Imran Khan was elected Pakistan’s prime minister in July 2018, he tasked his top adviser Jahangir Tareen with recruiting independent members of parliament to support him after failing to win an outright majority.
The sugar baron criss-crossed Pakistan in his private jet scooping up politicians one by one, flashing a winning smile as he welcomed them to the party alongside Mr Khan. His nationwide headhunt was immortalised in satirical memes that showed him leaping out of his luxury SUV to capture candidates and successfully recruiting others from Mars.
Mr Tareen's horse-trading gave Mr Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or the Movement for Justice, a razor-thin majority by the time the former cricket superstar was sworn in three weeks later, with many of the new recruits coming from the leading political families of Punjab, the country's most populous province and heartland of the powerful sugar industry.
The formation of PTI’s parliamentary majority perfectly captured the indispensable role of sugar barons in Pakistan's government, who along with the military and Islamic groups dominate the country's politics. In the absence of an organised public donation system for campaign funding, the barons bankroll every party in Pakistan, simultaneously serving as MPs and, in Nawaz Sharif’s case, as prime minister.
That cozy relationship was upended in April when Mr Khan released the initial results of a probe into a 20 per cent rise in the price of the commodity over the past year that has prompted heavy criticism of the sugar industry.
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https://www.ft.com/content/0dcae657-3964-4951-8e63-bbaa86e1d893
The calculation is straightforward. Mr Khan has been under intense pressure from the military, which has undermined his authority during the coronavirus crisis, and is encroaching on his civilian government. In a bid to re-establish his political standing with the people, he has decided to do battle with the sugar barons.
The probe alleged Mr Tareen and others close to the ruling party colluded to influence policy that allowed them to continue exporting sugar despite low stocks and benefit from an export subsidy worth Rs2.5bn ($15m). They then subsequently gained, the report said, from the steep rise in prices caused by the sugar shortages at home.
The final report — which could pave the way for criminal prosecutions — is to be released later in May.
Information Minister Shibli Faraz and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on Accountability Shehzad Akbar on Thursday revealed details from a report issued by the Sugar Forensic Commission (SFC) constituted to investigate and assign responsibility for the shortage and price hike of the commodity in the country in recent times.
Addressing a press conference in Islamabad alongside the information minister, Akbar said the commission's report, which had already been discussed by the federal cabinet earlier today, revealed that six major sugar mill groups were acting as "cartels".
"They hold 51 per cent of the total supply," he added.
"A mill called Alliance from Rahim Yar Khan — partially owned by Pakistan Muslim League Quaid (PML-Q) senior leader Moonis Elahi — was audited. It showed that between 2014 to 2018, farmers faced an 11-14pc systematic cut, which translated into Rs970 million and was a huge blow to them," Akbar said.
He added that the mill under-reported sugar sales "for years" and sold the commodity to unnamed buyers and had committed violations under the Pakistan Penal Code.
Akbar also mentioned the JDW sugar mill in which PTI stalwart Jahangir Tareen has a 21pc stake. He said according to the report, the mill committed "double booking, under-reporting and over-invoicing".
"The report noted that the mill [JDW] under-invoiced sales from bagasse and molasses which resulted in 25pc cost inflation. They also committed corporate fraud whereby money was transferred from their PLC to their private company.
"Forward sales, satta, unnamed sales have all been associated with JDW too."
The Al Arabiya mill owned by Salman Shahbaz Sharif was also audited, the SAPM said, adding that it was found to have committed fraud worth Rs400m through informal receipts and market manipulation.
Akbar said the report had proven what PM Imran Khan had always maintained.
"Whenever a businessman comes into politics, he will always do business even at the expense of the poor. So his [PM's] thinking has been validated. A certain business community has captured the market and as a result, people are suffering," he said.
He added that the report will be available online shortly for anyone to read following the prime minister's orders.
Akbar said that the report revealed that certain sugar mills also used informal receipts. "It was ultimately the farmer who was crushed because there was no official record. The mill owners showed the price of production as more than the support price which meant that farmers earned less."
He added that mill owners also engaged in informal banking with the farmers, which hurt the latter because it was an unregulated process. "This gave the mill owners a profit of up to 35pc," he said.
Akbar said it was the first time that an "independent inquiry" had been conducted into the cost of production. "In 2017-18, sugar mills determined the cost of production at Rs51 per kilo whereas the report gave an estimate of Rs38 instead," he said.
"In 2018-19, sugar mills calculated cost price at Rs52.60 while the report gave an estimate of Rs40. [The sugar mill owners] purchased sugarcane at a lower price but showed a higher price in the invoices," he said.
The SAPM said the report also pointed out that the sucrose content as shown by Pakistani mill owners (9.5pc to 10.5pc) was less than the international standard.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324665765_Financialization_Equity_and_Elite_Capture_in_Pakistan
Abstract: The concept of financialization has emerged as a powerful vehicle for framing questions related to the effects on nations, corporations and households of increasingly complex financial arrangements and narratives. This paper will explore the ways in which (in)equities of health, education, income and power in Pakistan have been influenced by processes of financialization in recent years. The paper pays particular attention to the ways in which elites, especially but not exclusively located in the Pakistan military and security services, have inserted themselves into economic and financial processes. Pakistan’s unique historical trajectory, as well as the historic influence of outside benefactors and non-state actors, are presented in detail as a key context for understanding the current economic rationalization efforts underway in conjunction with the International Monetary Fund
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There is certainly a level of financialization that is optimal for countries, firms and households. Access to credit, or secure savings vehicles are surely components of a healthy economy and are markets of development. Therefore, this paper does not take the view that all financial processes are ill-advised. Specifically, it is excessive or exploitative financialization
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It is a standard tenet of financialization scholarship that ‘context is everything,’ so the above discussion of Pakistan’s history, political culture and geostrategic challenges should set the stage for a contextualized discussion of the progress of financialization in the Islamic Republic. In that vein, any discussion of Pakistan’s recent economic history would be incomplete without a brief review of recent dialogues between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In fact, a review of the current formal funding arrangement between the two entities acts as an ideal summary of the economic and financial challenges, broadly considered, that face Pakistan. It will have to suffice, because a full review of Pakistan’s various economic plans, programs and externally-sourced rescue monies would be prohibitively large. In 2013 Pakistan was granted a USD $6.6 billion bailout package by the IMF to help the country maintain basic services and meet various looming obligations. As part of this program, Pakistan agreed to a program of rigorous restructuring and rationalization efforts. As part of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) that was granted to Pakistan, the government is required to submit a twice yearly Letter of Intent which outlines the progress it is making or intends to make on various matters of economic rationalization and modernization as a condition of maintaining access to the EFF. The language of these letters give an excellent summary of the both the priorities and the structural
by Daniel Workman
https://www.worldstopexports.com/palm-oil-imports-by-country/
International purchases of imported palm oil cost an estimated total US$33.8 billion in 2020.
Overall, the value of palm oil imports increased by 19% for all importing countries since 2016 when international purchases of palm oil cost $28.4 billion. From 2019 to 2020, globally imported palm oil appreciated 12%.
An edible vegetable oil, palm oil is derived from the reddish pulp of oil palm plant fruit. Palm oil is a highly saturated vegetable fat used for lower-cost cooking, blending into mayonnaise and as a butter substitute. Palm oil is also an ingredient for biodiesel fuels.
The 5 biggest importers of palm oil (India, China, Pakistan, Netherlands, Spain) bought 43.2% of total palm oil purchased via international markets in 2020.
From a continental perspective, Asian countries imported the highest dollar worth of palm oil during 2020 with purchases valued at $17.7 billion or over half (52.3%) of the global total. In second place were European importers at 24.8% while a fast-growing 15.7% of palm oil imported worldwide was delivered to Africa.
Smaller percentages went to customers in North America (4.3%), Latin America (2.5%) excluding Mexico but including the Caribbean, and Oceania (0.3%) led by Australia and New Zealand.
For research purposes, the 4-digit Harmonized Tariff System code prefix is 1515 for palm oil and its refractions, whether or not refined.
India: US$5.1 billion (15.1% of total imported palm oil)
China: $4.1 billion (12.2%)
Pakistan: $2.1 billion (6.2%)
Netherlands: $1.9 billion (5.5%)
Spain: $1.4 billion (4.1%)
Italy: $1.2 billion (3.7%)
United States: $1.1 billion (3.2%)
Bangladesh: $896.9 million (2.7%)
Kenya: $829.6 million (2.5%)
Russia: $793.2 million (2.3%)
Egypt: $732.5 million (2.2%)
Vietnam: $694.7 million (2.1%)
Malaysia: $657.1 million (1.9%)
Myanmar: $645.3 million (1.9%)
Germany: $599.1 million (1.8%)
Among the above countries, the fastest-growing markets for palm oil since 2019 were: Myanmar (up 660.4%), Kenya (up 59.2%), Vietnam (up 30.8%) and Italy (up 20.2%).
Only one top country posted a decline in its imported palm oil purchases namely India thanks to its -5.4% drop.
By value, the listed 15 countries purchased 67.4% of all palm oil imported in 2020.
by Daniel Workman
https://www.worldstopexports.com/tea-imports-by-country/
Global purchases of imported tea totaled US$6.7 billion in 2020.
The overall value of tea imported by all buyer countries shrank by an average -2.1% since 2016 when tea purchases cost $6.8 billion. From 2019 to 2020, the total dollar amount for imported tea slipped by -5.5% from 2019 to 2020.
The 5 most valuable import markets for tea (Pakistan, United States, Russia, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia) accounted for almost a third (31.1%) of the worldwide sales of imported tea in 2020.
From a continental perspective, Asian countries bought the most imported tea during 2020 with purchases costing $2.9 billion or 43.7% of the worldwide total. In second place were European countries at 29.3% while 14.4% of all tea imports were delivered to customers in Africa.
Smaller percentages went to North America (9.1%), Oceania (2%) led by Australia and New Zealand, and Latin America (1.5%) excluding Mexico.
For research purposes, the 4-digit Harmonized Tariff System code prefix for tea is 0902.
Tea Imports by Country
Below are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of tea during 2020.
Pakistan: US$589.8 million (8.9% of total imported tea)
United States: $473.8 million (7.1%)
Russia: $412.2 million (6.2%)
United Kingdom: $348.7 million (5.2%)
Saudi Arabia: $243.6 million (3.7%)
Iran: $236.3 million (3.5%)
Hong Kong: $221.8 million (3.3%)
Morocco: $202.3 million (3%)
Egypt: $197.2 million (3%)
Germany: $195 million (2.9%)
China: $180 million (2.7%)
France: $168.1 million (2.5%)
United Arab Emirates: $164.9 million (2.5%)
Japan: $156.6 million (2.4%)
Iraq: $134.7 million (2%)
Among the above countries, 4 markets for tea imports grew since 2019 namely: Hong Kong (up 19%), Pakistan (up 18.7%), Saudi Arabia (up 2.9%) and France (up 0.7%).
Those countries that posted declines in their imported tea purchases were led by: Iran (down -39.9%), Egypt (down -28.7%), Iraq (down -23%) and United Arab Emirates (down -21.7%).
By value, the listed 15 countries purchased 58.9% of all tea imported in 2020.
By Riaz Riazuddin former deputy governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1659441/consumption-habits-inflation
As households move to upper-income brackets, the share of spending on food consumption falls. This is known as Engel’s law. Empirical proof of this relationship is visible in the falling share of food from about 48pc in 2001-02 for the average household. This is an obvious indication that the real incomes of households have risen steadily since then, and inflation has not eaten up the entire rise in nominal incomes. Inflation seldom outpaces the rise in nominal incomes.
Coming back to eating habits, our main food spending is on milk. Of the total spending on food, about 25pc was spent on milk (fresh, packed and dry) in 2018-19, up from nearly 17pc in 2001-01. This is a good sign as milk is the most nourishing of all food items. This behaviour (largest spending on milk) holds worldwide. The direct consumption of milk by our households was about seven kilograms per month, or 84kg per year. Total milk consumption per capita is much higher because we also eat ice cream, halwa, jalebi, gulab jamun and whatnot bought from the market. The milk used in them is consumed indirectly. Our total per person per year consumption of milk was 168kg in 2018-19. This has risen from about 150kg in 2000-01. It was 107kg in 1949-50 showing considerable improvement since then.
Since milk is the single largest contributor in expenditure, its contribution to inflation should be very high. Thanks to milk price behaviour, it is seldom in the news as opposed to sugar and wheat, whose price trend, besides hurting the poor is also exploited for gaining political mileage. According to PBS, milk prices have risen from Rs82.50 per litre in October 2018 to Rs104.32 in October 2021. This is a three-year rise of 26.4pc, or per annum rise of 8.1pc. Another blessing related to milk is that the year-to-year variation in its prices is much lower than that of other food items. The three-year rise in CPI is about 30pc, or an average of 9.7pc per year till last month. Clearly, milk prices have contributed to containing inflation to a single digit during this period.
Next to milk is wheat and atta which constitute about 11.2pc of the monthly food expenditure — less than half of milk. Wheat and atta are our staple food and their direct consumption by the average household is 7kg per capita (84kg per capita per year). As we also eat naan from the tandoors, bread from bakeries etc, our indirect consumption of wheat and atta is 41kg per capita. Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Does this indicate better health? To answer this, let us look at how we devour ghee and sugar. Also remember that each person requires a minimum of 2,100 calories and 60g of protein per day.
Undoubtedly, ghee, cooking oil and sugar have a special place in our culture. We are familiar with Urdu idioms mentioning ghee and shakkar. Two relate to our eating habits. We greet good news by saying ‘Aap kay munh may ghee shakkar’, which literally means that may your mouth be filled with ghee and sugar. We envy the fortune of others by saying ‘Panchon oonglian ghee mei’ (all five fingers immersed in ghee, or having the best of both worlds). These sayings reflect not only our eating trends, but also the inflation burden of the rising prices of these three items — ghee, cooking oil and sugar. Recall any wedding dinner. Ghee is floating in our plates.
Pakistan produces 6.1 million tons of sugar in 2022
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/sugar-producing-countries
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Pakistan 5th largest sugar cane producing country
67 million tons of sugar cane in 2019
https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/sugar-cane-production
http://www.ukrsugar.com/en/post/pakistan-sugar-production-is-forecast-to-rise-250000-tonnes-usda
It is reported by USDA in its May report.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf
Sugarcane production is forecast up 3 percent to 83.5 million tons due to the expected recovery in area. Favorable prices are encouraging farmers to maintain sugarcane area vis-Ã -vis planting other crops. Farmers’ preference toplant sugarcane is also due to the crop’s resiliency to weather hazards compared to alternative crops. Sugarcane is produced in three provinces, with Punjab accounting for 68 percent of total production, followed by Sindh with 24 percent, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) with 8 percent. The Bahawalpur division of Punjab and the Sukkur division of Sindh account for more than half of the total sugarcane area. Sugarcane is planted in two different seasons: spring planting runs from February to March and the fall season is from September to October. Punjab and Sindh farmers plant sugarcane in both seasons, while most cane in KPK is planted in spring. Yields per hectare are relatively low due to lack of high yielding varieties, water shortages, and uneven fertilizer distribution.
Pakistan has been one of the top eight sugar producers for the past 3 years and is forecast to be the seventh largest exporter in 2023/24. Sugar consumption is estimated up 150,000 tons to 6.3 million supported by population growth and higher supplies. Despite the rise in production, sugar exports are forecast down 200,000 tons to 800,000 as the government seeks to curb exports. Fearing domestic price increases, the government is expected to be reluctant to approve too many exports this year by monitoring the market situation on a fortnightly basis to decide on the timing and quantity of exports. Stocks are expected to be flat.
https://www.czarnikow.com/blog/the-sugar-series-the-top-10-sugar-producing-countries-in-the-world
10. Australia 4.1 million tons
9. Russia 5.4 million tons
8. Mexico 6.1 million tons
7. Pakistan 7.8 million tons
4. Thailand 10.3 million tons
3. European Union and UK 21 millon tons (Beet sugar in France, Germany, Belgium, Poland)
2. Brazil 34.9 million tons
1. India 36 million tons
7. Pakistan
Sugarcane is a major cash crop for Pakistan and, unlike India and Brazil, Pakistan grows the plant almost solely for the purpose of sugar extraction. In 2021/22 the nation produced 7.8 million tonnes of sugar – its highest volume ever. Pakistan’s sugar industry was challenged by drought in 2019/20 which, for an agrarian economy like Pakistan with a cane yield per hectare smaller than the world average (46 tonnes per hectare verses 60 tonnes per hectare respectively), was a serious problem. From 2016/17 to 2019/20 Pakistan saw year-on-year decline in its sugar output. But its fortunes have changed. Sugar production increased for two consecutive seasons because yields and land area for sugarcane increased significantly and government measures to protect farmers’ incomes guaranteed a minimum sales price.
In February 2021 Pakistan’s sugar prices rose as predictions of overall output being 200,000 tonnes less in 2021/22 than the 2020/21 season influenced speculative action in the market. That did not happen. Instead, Pakistan’s sugar output was over two million tonnes higher in 2021/22 than 2020/21. In October 2022 traders found themselves waiting on the government to authorise exports of the excess sugar produced.
https://www.ragus.co.uk/global-sugar-market-report-may-2023/#:~:text=In%20neighbouring%20Pakistan%2C%20flood%20damage,production%20to%207.8%20mln%20tonnes.
Unpredictable rains in India and Pakistan squeeze cane production
Estimates for India’s sugar production from the 2022/23 cane crop are below the decreased figure we estimated last October. The 35.6 mln tonnes we expect is much lower than the 39 mln tonnes produced in 21/22. Any further exports onto the global market this season seem unlikely, despite India having an export quota of 6 mln tonnes for the world market.
Despite an increased area under cane, low rainfall during the growing season and too much rain just before the harvest began resulted in lower cane yields. For the 2023/24 crop, the area under cane has increased again. If the monsoon rainfall is average, we expect India to produce 36.4 mln tonnes of sugar. However, that figure only holds if there are no major increases in cane juice or molasses diverted into ethanol production. In 22/23 the equivalent of 4.5 mln tonnes of sugar was used for ethanol production. In 23/24, we expect that figure to be 3.78 mln tonnes.
If an El Niño weather pattern develops, dry conditions would affect cane planting for the 24/25 crop. In neighbouring Pakistan, flood damage meant 2022/23 cane sugar production reduced to 7.2 mln tonnes compared to 8.6 mln tonnes in 21/22. The area under cane remains consistent with last season, but reduced fertilisers prices could push 23/24 sugar production to 7.8 mln tonnes.
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/18730-pakistan-expecting-record-wheat-crop
“In recent years, abnormally hot and humid weather near harvest negatively affected output,” FAS Post Islamabad said. “This year, however, the weather was favorable throughout the growing season, resulting in record output. Government policies ensured adequate supply of seeds and other inputs throughout the growing cycle.”
Punjab, the major wheat-growing province, produced more than 1 million tonnes than last year, reaching 21.2 million tonnes. Production in other provinces — Sindh (3.8 million), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1.4 million) and Baluchistan (1.6) — was almost the same as last year.
The record harvest will help lower the country’s forecasted import needs from 3 million to 2 million tonnes in 2023-24 even as total consumption grows to 30.2 million tonnes from 29.2 million tonnes. Pakistan imported 2.6 million tonnes last marketing year.
“Domestic demand continues to expand with population growth, and the record crop production will still be insufficient to meet domestic needs,” the FAS said.
The government has procured about 6 million tonnes of wheat from the domestic market to replenish its strategic reserves, and government stocks as of mid-June were about 10 million tonnes, the FAS said. The government is expected to start releasing wheat to millers in August, which is later than last year. Until then, millers will buy wheat from the open market.
Prospects for the 2023-24 rice crop remain good, and the production forecast is unchanged. Weather during seeding and transplanting in May through June was optimum in the rice-growing areas. Rainfall was good, which reduced the need for irrigation water. The 9-million-tonne forecast, if realized, will be the second-largest crop ever, slightly less than the record 9.3-million-tonne crop in 2021-22.