Pakistan Among Fastest Growing LNG Markets in the World

Pakistan joined the list of LNG importers last year and promptly became one of the world's fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The South Asian nation has suffered a crippling energy shortage as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

Pakistan Gas Market Forecast. Source: Platts

Global LNG Market:

Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan together imported 13.9 million tons of LNG, more than the combined increase of 11.9 million tons by the most populous nations of China and India.

The biggest increase in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MT to a total of 44.3 MT. It was also a significant year for the USA, after 2.9 MT of LNG was delivered from the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Qatar remained the world’s largest LNG exporting country, accounting for around 30% of global trade of 258 MT by exporting 77.2 MT, according to International Gas Union report 2017.

LNG Demand in Pakistan:

Pakistan has been a big consumer of natural gas since the discovery of Sui gas fields in Balochistan in 1952. Sui now accounts for just 6% of natural gas domestically produced in Pakistan. The rest of the 94% comes from gas fields in other parts of Pakistan. Among the various provinces, Sindh is now the biggest producer of natural gas. Demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day.

Pakistan is currently importing 2 million MT (96 billion cubic feet) of LNG and negotiating to secure an additional 3 million MT in long-term contracts by the end of 2017 to supply its new LNG floating terminal due to arrive by December, according to M. Adnan Gilani, chief operating officer with Pakistan LNG Ltd, as reported by Platts.

New supply agreements will increase Pakistan's total LNG contracts total to more than 11 million MT per year, as the country aims to resolve a decade-long energy crisis, driven by growing gas consumption and falling domestic production.

In addition to government-to-government contracts, there are also private and public companies negotiating deals to import LNG. For example, Karachi-based power generator K-Electric is seeking supply for its 900-megawatt, $1-billion Port Qasim Power Station which will start-up in two phases, in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to Reuters news agency.

In the longer term, Pakistan aims to allocate a quarter of its LNG purchases to the spot and short-term markets, Pakistan LNG Ltd's Adnan Gilani told Platts. "Initially, our goal is to solve our energy crisis. We have long-term downstream commitments, so we do not mind going to mid-to-long term initially," he said. "Over the course of time, we will be able to cater to our variable non-cyclical demand... and allocate about a quarter of our portfolio to spot and short term. PLL is currently purchasing four cargoes per month on a short-term basis as it awaits the start of new term volumes.

By 2022, Pakistan expects to import 30 million MT (1,440 billion cubic feet) of LNG, according to Adnan Gilani of PLL.

LNG Infrastructure:

There is one LNG terminal currently operational at Port Qasim and 5 more are planned in Pakistan over the next two years to deal with rising volume of LNG imports. New pipelines are planned by South Sui Gas and Northern Sui Gas companies to transmit regasified LNG to various parts of the country to meet demand.

Summary:

Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The country has suffered a crippling energy shortage in recent years as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

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Comments

Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan discovers its largest #oil and #gas reserves in #Punjab near Attock. #energy

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/234489-POL-discovers-largest-reserves-of-oil-and-gas

Pakistan Oil fields Limited (POL) had discovered one of the largest oil and gas reserves from its Jhandial well (Punjab) in the last five years.

Jhandial well is located in Ikhlas Block in Northern Potwar, about 83 kilometers Southwest of Islamabad in District Attock, said an official.

POL holds 80% share in the block whereas The Attock Oil Company (AOC) has a 20% share.

The block is located in a prospective but geologically complex area surrounded by a number of significant oil discoveries.

The drilling of the deep exploratory well Jhandial-1 was proposed after acquisition and interpretation of recently acquired 3D seismic data.

The well was drilled to a total depth of 18,497 feet to test the Eocene and Paleocene carbonate reservoirs.

During testing, significant amount of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) were encountered in the Sakessar, Nammal (Eocene) and Patala (Paleocene) formations with flow rates of 21 million cubic feet of gas and 2,520 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 40/64"at well head flowing pressure of 3,768 psi, 19 million cubic feet of gas and 2,160 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 32/64"at well head flowing pressure of 5,364 psi and 16.5million cubic feet of gas and 1,630 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 28/64"at well head flowing pressure of 6,290 psi.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity of the oil is around 40o and the gas has a rich calorific value of 1,161 British Thermal Units per standard cubic feet of gas.

The gas composition analysis indicates that it contains about 86% methane, 7.2% ethane and 2.9% propane. The LPG content of the gas is about 2.5 metric tons per million cubic feet of gas.

The well will be connected to the production line within two weeks and will gradually attain full potential.

Structurally, Jhandial is a thrusted anticline just north of the Dhurnal Oil field. It has a closed area of about 15 square kilometers in the most likely case, with a thick net reservoir column from top of the Chorgali Formation (Eocene) to the base of the Paleocene Formation.

Preliminary initial estimated recoverable reserves of the field are in the range of at least 292 billion standard cubic feet of gas and 23 million barrels of oil.

The Jhandial discovery is expected to contribute to the country's energy sustainability while also having a positive impact on the future of exploratory efforts in the block and surrounding areas.
Riaz Haq said…
#LNG revolutionizing #Pakistan’s #energy sector. #gas #CNG

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1526272/bridging-energy-shortfall-lng-revolutionising-pakistans-energy-sector/

If one looks at Pakistan’s print and electronic media, it would appear that nothing has gone right for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the country. However, the rest of the world has a completely different view of the matter.

They marvel as to how quickly the government of Pakistan was able to sign contracts at the most economical prices, build LNG terminals and other infrastructure, and actually begin using the gas to alleviate severe energy shortages.

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Already some results are becoming evident. The most obvious effect has been on the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) in automobiles. Almost 75% of around 3,200 CNG pumping stations operating in 2012 have restarted their operations, according to the All Pakistan Compressed Natural Gas Association.

Pakistan was amongst the top CNG-user countries with 3.7 million CNG-run vehicles before 2012. Since LNG is at least 30% more economical to use, its availability to automobiles will result in considerable savings for consumers as well as the government. The other advantage is that CNG is a cleaner fuel.

It is not just transport and power sectors that are the major beneficiaries, other sectors benefit as well. Gas is used as raw material in the manufacture of fertilisers and this year Pakistan has become a net exporter rather than an importer of the commodity.

It is time other sectors such as Railways start planning to switch from diesel-run locomotives to LNG. This would save 40-60% of fuel cost.

Our obsolete furnace-oil based power plants should be replaced by more energy-efficient LNG-based plants as is already being done in India. This is expected to save $1.5-2 billion in foreign exchange annually.

With the availability of cheaper fuel, Pakistan’s competitiveness will increase, resulting in revival of exports and the overall economy.

With the completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) early harvest projects, and no energy worries, the incoming government in 2018 would inherit a Pakistan different than what it was only four years ago.
Riaz Haq said…
Fleeing #India foreign institutional #investors heading straight to #Pakistan; heres why. #KSE100 http://ecoti.in/9McAza via @economictimes

After losing a quarter of its value in five months as the prime minister was ousted over corruption charges and the current-account deficit ballooned, Pakistan’s stock market is starting to look cheap to foreign funds.

The market is definitely oversold and it’s a good time to buy, said Mohammed Ali Hussain, a senior analyst in Dubai at Frontier Investment Management Partners Ltd. The shares have now fallen enough to compensate for the risk of a rupee devaluation and look attractive ..

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Beset by political turmoil and an increasingly precarious macroeconomic position, Pakistan has seen $402 million of stocks outflows this year even as the country was restored to emerging-market status by index provider MSCI Inc. But with an economy supported by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “ One Belt One Road” infrastructure push and average valuations that have fallen to around half the level of Indian shares, sentiment is turning.


Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61182075.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Riaz Haq said…
THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
LNG supply: Pakistan seeks further fee cut for North-South pipeline

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1539653/2-lng-supply-pakistan-seeks-fee-cut-north-south-pipeline/

Pakistan has asked Russia to make a further reduction in the tolling fee for pumping liquefied natural gas (LNG) through a planned $2 billion North-South pipeline that will bring energy for consumers in Punjab.

“Pakistan is seeking to further push down the fee to $0.78 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) in talks with Russia,” a senior government official said while talking to The Express Tribune.

Earlier, Moscow had demanded $1.2 per mmbtu for gas transmission. However, a negotiating committee, set up with approval of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), later agreed on 85 cents per unit.

At present, the two sides are finalising terms and conditions of a commercial agreement to pave the way for execution of the project.

“Pakistan and Russia have discussed parallel ways of implementing the project amid fears of sanctions on the Russian companies nominated to execute the project,” the official said. “After the two sides sign the commercial agreement, groundbreaking of the project will take place.”

Riaz Haq said…
Exclusive-Exxon Exit Deals Blow to Pakistan Plans for LNG Imports

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/10/30/business/30reuters-pakistan-lng-exxon-mobil.html

Exxon Mobil has pulled out of a major project in Pakistan, in a potential blow to plans to boost imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after years of winter shortages.

Differences among the six-member group behind the project in Port Qasim in Karachi mean French oil major Total and Japan's Mitsubishi may also quit and join a rival scheme, government officials and industry sources told Reuters.

A senior Pakistani government official put the chances of success for the project, set to be Pakistan's third and biggest by import capacity, at 10-20 percent due to the disagreements.

A highly-developed pipeline grid, extensive industrial demand and the biggest natural gas-powered vehicle fleet in Asia after China and Iran make Pakistan an easy fit for LNG and official estimates show imports could jump fivefold to 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2022.

The new project would include a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), where LNG will be converted back into gas for feeding into the country's grid.

Qatar Petroleum [QATPE.UL], the world's biggest LNG producer, Turkish developer Global Energy Infrastructure Limited (GEIL) and Norway's Hoegh LNG, which will provide the FSRU, are the other partners.

While Exxon has pulled out, the U.S. company was now negotiating to join a separate project, Hasil Bizenjo, Pakistan's Maritime Affairs minister in charge of ports, said.

"They are thinking to build a new terminal in Port Qasim," Bizenjo told Reuters in the Pakistan capital Islamabad, adding that Mitsubishi and Total were also in talks about taking stakes in another consortium.

Exxon was pulling out because it had "issues with partners", particularly the developer, GEIL, one energy official said. Exxon's move leaves in doubt a multi-billion dollar deal Qatar has already struck with GEIL for the sale of up to 2.3 million tonnes of LNG annually over 20-years.

Exxon Mobil, Total and GEIL declined to comment, while a Mitsubishi spokesman said that the Japanese company has been continuing its talks with partners over the project.

Qatar Petroleum did not respond to requests for comment.

NEW INVESTORS?

LNG imports have transformed Pakistan's energy map since the country's first import facility was introduced in 2015.

If the second LNG terminal proceeds without glitches the South Asian nation will not suffer winter gas shortages for the first time in more than 10 years, energy officials say, in a likely boost for Prime Minister Shahid Abbasi's ruling party before the next general elections, due in mid-2018.

Government officials and industry sources said talks are underway to bring new players into the project, including Swiss trading house Vitol [VITOLV.UL], which declined to comment.

Rival traders Trafigura and Gunvor are already developing LNG projects in Pakistan, betting the country will account for a rising share of future profits and LNG trade.

Pakistan plans to add its second LNG import terminal by the end of this year, but private companies have proposed building six more largely around Port Qasim.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan’s private sector to get new #LNG terminal

http://www.gulf-times.com/story/574696/Pakistan-s-private-sector-to-get-new-LNG-terminal

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Pakistan’s domestic gas production capacity is approximately 4bn cubic feet per day (bcfd), while demand is more than 6bn bcfd, resulting in a growing shortfall of gas which is expected to worsen in the coming years. An estimate said the gap between demand and supply is projected to double by 2020.

A consortium comprising local and foreign business houses is poised to set up Pakistan’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal that would be dedicated to energy-starved private sector, industry officials said yesterday.
The officials said that the consortium consisting of Fatima Group, Shell Gas BV, Gunvor Group Ltd and Engro Elengy Terminal Ltd would set up the terminal with a capacity to regasify 600mn metric cubic feet per day in ‘near future’. It would enable private buyers to buy RLNG on competitive price.
At present, the two LNG terminals operated by Engro Elengy and Pakistan GasPort Consortium Ltd – with 1.2bn cubic feet per day capacity – are mainly catering to the need of RLNG-based power plants of the government.
The present domestic gas production capacity is approximately 4bn cubic feet per day (bcfd), while demand is more than 6bn bcfd, resulting in a growing shortfall of gas which is expected to worsen in the coming years. An estimate said the gap between demand and supply is projected to double by 2020.
The increasing trend in demand will continue to pose challenge despite initiative taken by the government that led to injecting of RLNG into domestic network in early 2015.
Official said the new consortium has shown commitment to start work on LNG terminal in view of the government’s encouraging policies.
“This initiative will boost imports of much-needed LNG for the energy-starved private sector,” an official said.
Officials said the new LNG partnership will help in further reinforcing energy security of the country by reducing demand supply gap with provision of one of the cheapest fuels on competitive terms.
An independent private LNG market will encourage competition as private buyers and sellers will truly create a viable energy market, they added. Gas shortages resulted in extreme stress to economy during the last decade. The industrial and commercial sectors have especially been bearing the brunt of chronic energy shortages.
The shortfall directly affected as many as 500,000 households, while it also caused shutdown of industries or slowdown in production, causing unemployment, according to an estimate. Particularly, export-oriented sectors are badly hurt by energy and power crisis that led to loss of export revenue.
More than 2,500 megawatts of power projects were brought online or switched from expensive liquid fuels with the injection of imported RLNG, while 750 plus compressed natural gas stations commenced operation in the Punjab alone, creating a new hope of survival for $4.5bn industry.
Furthermore, the revival of more than 500 industrial units mainly comprising of export-oriented textile could be made possible due to LNG supplies.
Similarly, the robust fertiliser industry that was plagued by non-availability of natural gas could only be revived after RLNG supplies. Consequently, the fertiliser industry has witnessed an increase of 1mn tonnes in production.
LNG is one of the most rapidly expanding energy commodities globally due to its obvious economic and environmental advantages. Global LNG trade reached an all-time high of 260mn tonnes in 2016.
The sector’s 10-year compound annual growth rate stands at 5%. The world’s regasification capacity stood at 820mn
Riaz Haq said…
#Russia eyes opportunities for #energy cooperation with #Pakistan. #LNG #Pipeline

http://tass.com/economy/990860

Russia sees good opportunities for trade and economic cooperation with Pakistan, primarily in energy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday, opening talks with his Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Muhammad Asif on Tuesday.

"We have good opportunities in trade and economic cooperation, investment cooperation, most notably in energy, given that the significant part of this sector in your country was created with the assistance of our specialists," Lavrov said.

"One of priority areas of our cooperation is anti-terror fight," Lavrov said. "We expect to continue providing assistance in enhancing your country’s potential to fight terrorism," he stressed.

The Pakistani foreign minister said he saw opportunities for bilateral cooperation in military, technical and banking sectors. He congratulated Lavrov on the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Russia, voicing hope to step up cooperation.

Moscow and Islamabad will establish a commission on military cooperation, he said.

"A commission on military cooperation is being formed," Lavrov said. "We have confirmed Russia’s readiness to continue boosting Pakistan’s counterterrorism capacity, which is in the entire region’s interests," the Russian top diplomat added.

"Last year, we handed four Mil Mi-35M combat and cargo helicopters over to our partners," he went on to say. "I am sure that they have been in demand as far as counterterrorism operations go, as our colleagues told us today," the Russian foreign minister noted.

Russia and Pakistan will continue the practice of organizing Druzhba (Friendship) joint tactical drills. "We have decided to continue the practice of organization of joint tactical exercises Druzhba to drill skills of counter-terrorist organizations in mountainous conditions," he said. "Such drills were conducted last autumn in Russia’s Karachay-Cherkessia."



More:
http://tass.com/economy/990860

Riaz Haq said…
Pakistani Government seeks to reduce supplies as demand for LNG fades
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/pakistani-government-seeks-to-reduce-supplies-as-demand-for-lng-fades/

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As a consequence, the LNG throughput handled by PLL from Gasport Terminal would be reduced from 300 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to 200mmcfd while PSO would reduce supply from Engro Elengy Terminal from 600mmcfd to 500mmcfd.

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All the three LNG projects were required to achieve commercial operation date (COD) on combined cycle by December 2017 under revised schedule instead of original schedule of June-August 2017, but are yet to reach that stage, he said. One of the plants may achieve COD on March 7, he added.

He said the LNG off-takers were either not ready or a few others had lower requirement for LNG while pipelines and storages were fully packed and hence the only option left was to reduce throughput from both terminals.

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The meeting was attended by Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari, Finance Adviser Miftah Ismail, Special Assistant to the PM Barrister Zafarullah Khan, federal secretaries senior officials of divisions concerned. The meeting was also “briefed on demand and supply situation and the power generation projections from March till October 2018”.

Interestingly, the LNG supply jack up was particularly based on power plants’ requirement. The Central Power Purchase Agency (CPPA) and National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) have been giving gas demand of up to 900mmcfd, but actual consumption in the sector has been less than 500mmcfd.

For February, the power sector has been committing LNG offtake of 700mmcfd, but the supply remained less than 400mmcfd and some quantities were diverted to the domestic sector besides the industry.

Under revised schedules, the Petroleum Ministry official said the two LNG projects of the federal government namely Haveli Bahadar Shah and Balloki and Qaid-i-Azam Power Plant (Bhikki plan) of Punjab government have confirmed combined cycle commissioning in early March (all three having 1,200MW).

The three plants were to get firm supply of RLNG from December/January for combined cycle testing but they have so far failed to scale up supplies due to repeated technical failures.

In fact, the three were to start single cycle operations over one year ago for which two LNG terminals were set up and LNG import arrangements were put in place at the expense of millions of dollars of the taxpayer money. The plants were to make ‘take or pay’ payments to LNG importers under back-to-back agreements in case of non-consumption of RLNG even in single cycle phase.

However, the stakeholders in the supply chain have refrained from ‘take or pay’ settlement under orders of the PM Office to spread the losses across the chain instead of cost build up in LNG power plants to avoid Nandipur Power project-like cost escalations. The cost, therefore, shift to PSO, LNG companies and Sui gas companies besides the consumer at large. LNG terminal operators like Elengy and Gasport are qualified to claim full payments that increases the processing cost because of lower utilisation factor.

Interestingly, chief executive of Qaid-i-Azam LNG project Ahad Cheema was picked up by National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in a different case when his first plant at Bhikki was in final stage of testing and he had been entrusted to undertake fourth LNG project of 1,200MW at Trimmu when it had become clear that enough generation capacity had been contracted.

In the meanwhile, a number of low-cost generation project based on coal and hydropower have come on line like coal-based project at Sahiwal contributing 1,300MW, Port Qasim coal plant 600MW and expected to go up to 1,300MW soon. Additional nuclear power capacity of around 800MW is likely to be commissioned this summer while Tarbela-4th extension will give enhanced supplies in summer, followed by Neelum-Jehulm.
Riaz Haq said…
Exxon Mobil Partnering With #Pakistan for Third #LNG Terminal. #energy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/exxon-mobil-partnering-with-pakistan-for-its-third-lng-terminal


Exxon Mobil Corp. is working with a group of Pakistan’s large businesses on a proposal to build and supply the country’s third import terminal for liquefied natural gas, according to the nation’s minister for maritime affairs.

Exxon has partnered with Pakistani consortium Energas to develop the import terminal, the minister, Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo, said by phone Friday, without providing further details. An Exxon spokesman in Singapore wasn’t immediately able to comment.

According to a presentation the companies made to the country’s regulators Thursday, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg, the group plans to start building a $150 million offshore terminal at Port Qasim near Karachi in May, pending government approvals. Exxon and Qatar would supply LNG to the terminal, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2019, according to the presentation.

With a population of more than 200 million and an economy growing above 5 percent, Pakistan has the largest appetite for LNG among emerging markets, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The nation’s domestic gas production has remained stable for more than a decade despite growing demand.

The terminal will have throughput capacity of 750 million cubic feet a day of gas, or about 5.6 million tons a year of LNG, according to the presentation. Exxon and Energas already have customers for about 300 million cubic feet a day of gas including power plants, it said.

Energas is a consortium of large Pakistani businesses looking to secure long-term gas supply on preferential terms, including Yunus Brothers Group, which owns Lucky Cement Ltd., and Sapphire Group.

Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan played bug #gas firms to save $600 million. After 2 years of negotiations #Qatar refused to lower price for #LNG. Pakistan then sought public bids for 120 cargoes in open markets bringing bids from big suppliers like Shell & BP https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-09/playing-gas-giants-off-each-other-saved-pakistan-600-million via @markets


Pakistan said it saved more than $600 million over the first 10 years of a natural gas supply deal by pitting some of the world’s biggest sellers against each other.

A report from the state’s oil marketing company presented two weeks ago to a senate committee, and reviewed by Bloomberg News, details how the 2016 deal came together with Qatar, the world’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas. It also sheds a rare light on such high-stakes energy deals, which are almost exclusively settled behind closed doors and stay hidden from public scrutiny.

The maneuvering by Pakistan came after two years of negotiations hit an impasse as Qatar refused to lower its offer price for LNG. So Pakistan sought leverage on the open market in late 2015, publicly seeking 120 cargoes in two large tenders, which brought in bids from suppliers including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc.

While negotiations with Qatargas Operating Co. were under way, the tender was “issued to fetch maximum number of bidders and best price option,” the presentation said. “The strategy helped bring down prices with Qatargas and saved $610 million."

Pakistan then informed Qatar about the lowest bid, from Switzerland-based Gunvor Group Ltd., which the Middle East supplier agreed to match. Pakistan still purchased some LNG from Gunvor, awarding it the first tender. But the volumes it sought from the second tender ended up in the final Qatar deal, bulking it up by 25 percent.

The head of a senate committee now scrutinizing the deal, Mohsin Aziz, confirmed the details of the presentation in an interview last week. Pakistan State Oil Co. and Qatargas officials didn’t respond to requests for comment. Gunvor and BP declined to comment. Shell said it looks forward to future LNG options in Pakistan, without directly commenting on the tender.


The deal with Qatar, which was eventually settled for 3.75 million metric tons annually over 15 years, marked Pakistan’s emergence as an LNG buyer. The country turned to imports after its own declining production forced some factories to shut and caused blackouts. Imports have grown rapidly since early 2016, with Pakistan the seventh-largest LNG buyer globally in August, according to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data.

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