Pakistan Population Boom; Rohingya Ethnic Cleansing

Is Pakistan's growing population a "disaster in the making"? Is it a bigger disaster than the population bust in Europe and East Asia with their aging societies and shrinking labor force? Where will the investment in education, health and job creation come from in Pakistan to meet the growing population? Is there a demographic dividend with Pakistan's labor force growing faster than the overall population? Will growth in labor force help increase domestic savings rate in Pakistan? What is the relationship between GDP growth and job creation? What is Pakistan's employment elasticity relative to other nations in South Asia?

Source: World Bank Report "More and Better Jobs in South Asia"

Who are the Rohingya? Why are they being attacked, raped, killed and driven out of their homes in Rakhine state? Why is the Myanmar government and its allied Buddhist militias, including monks, burning Rohingya villages? Is it a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing" as described by the UN Human Rights chief? Why is Nobel Peace laureate Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi defending these actions instead of using her authority, at least her moral authority, to end this nightmare for the Rohingya? What is the world doing about t? What can and should Pakistan and other Muslim nations do to help their fellow Muslim Rohingya?

Source: Aljazeera

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these and other questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Can Pakistan Economy Add 2 Million Jobs a Year?

Where's the Real Population "Disaster in the Making"? Pakistan or West?

Pakistan's Population Growth: Blessing or Curse?

Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend

World Bank Report on Job Growth in Pakistan

Underinvestment Hurting Pakistan's GDP Growth

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Musharraf Accelerated Growth of Pakistan's Financial and Human Capital

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan


Riaz Haq said…

Growth in a number of
countries in South Asia, including Bangladesh and
Pakistan, appears to have benefited in recent years
from new opportunitieslinked to the “One Belt, One
Road” initiative in China.
The gradual slowdown of China is expected to continue
asit moves ahead with rebalancing its economy,
towards domestic markets. However, the explosion of
domestic debtsince the crisisis proving a major challenge
to sustained growth. According to comparable
data from the Bank for International Settlements, the
debt-to-GDP ratio of China stands at 249 per cent
as compared with 248 per cent in the United States
and 279 per cent in the euro zone. Despite this debt
build-up, which calls for deleveraging, every time
there are signs of a slowdown the only instrument
in the hands of the Chinese Government seems to
be to expand credit. Fears of a hard landing resulted
in a ¥6.2 trillion increase in debt in the first three
months of 2017.9
The Indian banking sector, too, which since 2003
has expanded credit to the retail sector (involving
personal loans of various kinds, especially those for
housing investments and car purchases) and to the
corporate sector (including for infrastructure projects),
is now burdened with large volumes ofstressed
and non-performing assets. Data for all banks(public
and private), relating to December 2016, point to a
59.3 per cent increase over the previous 12 months,
taking it to 9.3 per cent of their advances, compared
with a non-performing assets (NPAs) to advances
ratio of 3.5 per cent at the end of 2012.10
Rising NPAs are making banks much more cautious
in their lending practices with signs of a reduction in
the pace of credit creation. Since debt-financed private
investment and consumption was an important
driver of growth in India, it is more than likely that the
easing of the credit boom would slow GDP growth as
well. Thus, the dependence on debt makes the boom
in China and India difficult to sustain and raises the
possibility that when the downturn occurs in these
countries, deleveraging will accelerate the fall and
make recovery difficult. Expecting these countriesto
continue to serve asthe growth polesthat would fuel
a global recovery is clearly unwarranted.
Riaz Haq said…
India’s faltering economy poses questions for Narendra Modi
Much-touted economic boom shows signs of wobbling

Two years ago, India was indeed touted as a rare bright spot in a dim global economy. Its growth had outpaced that of a slowing China, and Mr Modi’s government briefly revelled in India’s status as the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Many expected India to enjoy a sustained economic boom. That hope was not realised. Since early 2016, Indian growth has slowed consistently. In the quarter ending June 30, gross domestic product growth fell to 5.7 per cent — its slowest since early 2014, the doldrums of the previous Congress government. July’s index of industrial production has also surprised economists, up just 1.2 per cent, with 15 of 23 industries contracting. New Delhi insists that the downturn is temporary — a wobble due to reforms such as the July 1 introduction of a national value added tax. But many economists suggest India is facing serious structural problems from which it is unlikely to recover rapidly. Companies and banks remained weighed down in high levels of stressed debt. Exports — which helped drive growth after Mr Modi took over — have faltered. Private investment has fallen steadily since early 2016 with little sign of imminent pick-up. “The reasons why corporates are not investing is because there is no demand,” says Jahangir Aziz, head of emerging markets analysis at JPMorgan. “India, like every other emerging market, is dependent on foreign demand to drive its growth. Foreign demand went down, and India did not replace it with an alternative.” Since taking power, Mr Modi’s economic vision has centred on boosting India’s appeal and competitiveness as a manufacturing base — to encourage more companies to “Make in India”. He vowed to revive long-stalled infrastructure projects, including those mired in unsustainable debt. He has talked of slashing red tape to improve the ease of doing business. His government has pushed through the new goods and services tax, which is turning the country into a genuine single market. Raghuram Rajan on India's economic slide Play video But in a world of excess global manufacturing capacity, some suggest that New Delhi’s focus on promoting India as an export-oriented manufacturing base may not deliver the expected results. “When global trade is languishing, it’s very difficult for India to stand up and say we are going to take market share away from China,” says Mr Aziz. “Everybody is fighting for a smaller and smaller pie.” It does not help that the rupee has also appreciated strongly, rising 6 per cent against the dollar this year, as relatively high interest rates compared with other markets attract capital inflows. Many economists argue the currency is overvalued — an argument so far dismissed by New Delhi. “Countries often make a mistake and take pride in the stronger currency, and that is a very risky thing,” says Kaushik Basu, who served as chief economic adviser to India’s previous Congress government. “The rupee in real terms has become strong and that is showing up in exports not doing well and imports picking up a bit too rapidly.”The introduction of India’s goods and services tax has undoubtedly damped short-term economic impact, as many manufacturers ran down their stocks amid uncertainty about how the government would give tax credits for goods made before July 1. “Everybody started reducing inventory levels,” says Gaurav Daga, whose business imports plastic polymers used to make goods ranging from shoes to cables to auto components. “Nobody had any clarity about the transition credits.” But many say India’s economy is also reeling from the aftershocks of last year’s radical demonetisation, when Mr Modi banned the use of nearly 86 per cent of the country’s cash, severely disrupting daily life and commerce. ’
Riaz Haq said…
#China investors to invest in #Textile joint ventures in #Pakistan for economies of scale. #CPEC #SEZ

Six-member delegation from China's Hi-Tech Group, a state owned company dealing in textile and energy generation machinery, Tuesday visited FPCCI and had sector specific detailed discussion with their counter-parts on, how to upgrade Pakistan's textile industry especially the spinning mills.

Eighty percent of yarn and other textile products will be re-exported to China for value-addition to sell the finished good at better prices in international market, Pakistani businessmen were informed.

Led by Executive Director of the Group, Shaohul Zhang, the Chinese delegation is on 5-day visit to Pakistan from September 17. On Wednesday, they would fly to Lahore for business sessions with the textile industry people.

Acting President, Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Manzoor-ul-Haq Malik and senior leader of FPCCI and a leading textile industrialist and exporter Dr. Mirza Ikhtiar Baig along with other senior businessmen welcomed the Chinese team at the Federation House. Mr. Malik and Dr. Baig led the FPCCI team.

Chinese were keen to enter joint ventures for modernization and upgrdation of Pakistan's spinning mills to make these cost efficient and competitive, Mr Zhang said.

They wanted to start with installing one million spindles at least at one spinning mill, which was the lowest benchmark for a spinning mill in China.

Whereas, in Pakistan majority spinning mills had spindles only in hundreds.

For such large size spinning mills, China's Hi-Tech Group would help set up power plants to meet its power consumption demand at very reasonable price. Spinning mills are the largest power consuming industry.

Head of the Chinese delegation informed that China wanted to relocate its textile units to Pakistan to benefit from Pakistan's low paid and well-experienced textile labour. Chinese investors were ready to set up their textile mills in Pakistan, mostly under joint ventures, especially at Special Economic Zones linked to China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

" We can contribute in power supply at very favourable price. There can be very good partnership in spinning mills and power plants owners," he remarked adding that give us land, we will bring textile machinery here.

He claimed that China's textile machinery was more suitable for Pakistan against that of Germany and Switzerland.

He said under the proposed programme, most of the small Pakistani spinning units would have to be shutdown as those were not cost efficient and led to wastage of very good quality cotton stock.

The main points harvested from the meeting were : there was a big demand in China for Pakistani yarn-- Pakistan should produce 8 singles cotton instead of 6 singles. Cotton yield per acre should be increased-- China wants Pakistan to shift to an economy of scale including large size spinning mills, and Chinese investors were very much interested to become partners in textile -- Pakistan's textile sector needs to corporatised instead of being confined to as family businesses. These should be listed with Pakistan Stock Exchange as public limited companies -- the policies were required to protect the existing local textile industrialists and that even the existing textile units could continue profitably if those were not be re- located-- eighty percentage of the textile products would be re- exported to China for value addition. China was the large market for yarn and Pakistan could capture a big share-- Pakistan textile sector should contact Chinese government for the support including easy financing.
Riaz Haq said…
China signs MoUs worth $375m for investment in readymade garments sector in Pakistan

Chinese companies from different cities and provinces have expressed their interest in relocating their textile, garment and accessory production units to Punjab, with an expected investment of at least $25 million estimated for each unit.

This was stated by Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA) Central Chairman Ijaz Khokhar at the three-day 18th International Textile Asia Exhibition. Besides marking the participation of over 500 foreign delegates, the exhibition also witnessed signing of MoUs worth $375 million for investment in Pakistan through joint ventures with local companies

Speaking on the occasion, Khokhar said that foreign companies are also committed to transfer their technologies, besides buying back Pakistani products after value-addition here, which would enhance export and lower Pakistan’s trade deficit with China.

Quoting the Chinese, he said, “We will make joint ventures with local companies from Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot and Faisalabad, and provide training to engineers from these cities and buy back products to export to China.”

The event was jointly organised by PRGMEA and Ecommerce Gateway Pakistan, who also signed an agreement to continue to jointly conduct this mega textile event in the future on an annual basis.

The PRGMEA chairman announced this on the last day of the exhibition. In his concluding remarks, he said that around 52,000 trade visitors registered their presence in the textile fair in three days.

Also present on the occasion, PRGMEA Vice Chairman Jawwad Chaudhry said that machinery and equipment displayed at the exhibition were of immense use to manufacturers producing value-added products for increasing volume of exports.

He hoped that local businessmen would benefit from this technology by adding value to their products.

He said that the Textile Asia Expo also featured businessmen to businessmen (B2B) meetings, a lot of important industry-related presentations and seminars on textile sector.

Chaudhry observed that the entire chain of the local textile sector was invited to attend the country’s largest textile show. The exhibiting countries included Austria, China, Czech Republic, France, Germany, India, Italy, Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, UK and USA among others.

Ecommerce Gateway Pakistan CEO Dr Khurshid Nizam said that such textile machinery fairs in Pakistan would increase productivity, resulting into better competitiveness.

Chinese textile units interested in relocating to Pakistan

The exhibition is aimed at focusing the Punjab potential of textile and garment machinery, accessories, raw material supplies, chemicals and allied services under one roof, as around 80% of textile industry is located in this province, Nizam added.

The exhibition also provided an effective platform for joint ventures and collaborations to the textile sector’s SMEs, he remarked.

The CEO observed that the three-day mega fair provided the local small textile industry a good opportunity where more than 315 international brands from around 27 countries displayed their products in more than 515 stalls.

Riaz Haq said…
#India's #Modi has a big problem in creating jobs. #Inequality is rising. #BJP #economy #unemployment

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a jobs problem.

He swept to power three years ago promising India’s poor and middle classes he’d restore their "dignity" after years of swelling inequality, with job creation central to his pitch. But now, the jobs market has been slugged by last November’s shock cash ban and July’s imposition of a goods and services tax.

And things look like they’re about to get worse: India is set to see a further 30 percent-to-40 percent reduction of jobs in the manufacturing sector compared with last year, according to TeamLease Services Ltd., one of the country’s biggest recruitment firms. While other surveys aren’t quite so bleak, they also suggest Modi is a long way from creating the 10 million jobs a year needed to keep up with his young and rapidly expanding workforce.

The opposition -- in disarray since losing to Modi -- is dialing up its criticism as it eyes elections due in 2019.

"If India cannot give the millions of people entering the job market employment, anger will increase, and it has the potential to derail what has been built so far," Rahul Gandhi, heir-apparent to the main opposition Indian National Congress party, said in a speech at the University of California, Berkeley, on Sept. 11. "That will be catastrophic for India and the world beyond it."

Gandhi is the son and grandson of previous prime ministers, and could well be Modi’s direct opponent at the next vote.

Modi’s backers are alarmed too. A key ally and member of Modi’s party, Subramanian Swamy, told a TV channel over the weekend that he has conveyed concerns to Modi that the economy could be heading for a "major depression."

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh -- the ideological parent of Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party that works like a volunteer wing to ensure voter turnout during elections -- has alerted the BJP of signs of a shift in the public mood over the government’s performance, though Modi still remains personally popular, according to a report in the Telegraph newspaper last week that cited unnamed RSS sources.

Read: India’s Shock Therapy Has Some Serious Side Effects

Munira Loliwala, a general manager at TeamLease, said the slowdown accelerated sharply with demonetization. Indian manufacturers, who previously preferred to cut white-collar jobs rather than factory-floor workers, are now slashing all over, she said.

"We see no option, things are not looking to improve much," Loliwala said.

Loliwala was referring to Modi’s move in November to scrap 86 percent of currency in circulation, which contributed to growth in gross domestic product slumping to the lowest since 2014 last quarter. Modi then pushed through a nationwide goods and services tax on July 1, which is expected to benefit India in the long-run but for now is roiling supply chains.

Manufacturing accounts for some 18 percent of GDP and directly employs 12 percent of the population, government data show. Loliwala said that many of those who lose their jobs stay unemployed because they lack the communication skills required for the services sector, which accounts for 62 percent of GDP.
Riaz Haq said…
Sen Bernie Sanders: The War on #Terror ‘Has Been a Disaster for the #American People’ #Terrorism … via @thedailybeast

Sanders’ biggest foreign policy speech yet will defend the Iran Deal, call out Putin, and blast the struggle against global jihadism as giving terrorists ‘exactly what they want.’

Fresh from pulling the Democratic Party leftward on health care, Bernie Sanders wants to do the same on geopolitics. The independent socialist senator will use a Thursday speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri—where Winston Churchill gave his famous “Iron Curtain” address—to catalyze an intra-progressive debate on foreign-policy principles.
It’s a speech likely to make waves. Like U.K. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn before him, Sanders will call the war on terrorism a “disaster,” The Daily Beast has learned.
“The Global War on Terror has been a disaster for the American people and for American leadership,” Sanders will say Thursday in perhaps his biggest foreign-policy speech to date, according to an excerpt seen by The Daily Beast.
Riaz Haq said…
Here are the key statistics reported by Credit Suisse:

Total Household Wealth Mid-2016 :

India $3,099 billion Pakistan $524 billion

Wealth per adult:

India Year End 2000 Average $2,036 Median $498.00

Pakistan Year End 2000 Average $2,399 Median $1,025

India Mid-2016 Average $3,835 Median $608

Pakistan Mid-2016 Average $4,595 Median $1,788

Average wealth per adult in Pakistan is $760 more than in India or about 20% higher.

Median wealth per adult in Pakistan is $1,180 more than in India or about 120% higher

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