Per Capita Income in "Failed State" of Pakistan Up 22% in 2012-2017
|Pakistan GDP PPP Per Capita. Source: World Bank|
Per Capita Incomes in Large Economies:
China PPP per capita income grew the fastest at 48%, followed by India 43%, Turkey 32%, Indonesia 23%, Pakistan 22%, United Kingdom, United States and Japan 15%, Germany and Canada 13%, France 11%, Saudi Arabia 10%, Greece 9.5%, Russia and Italy 8%, Nigeria 7.5% and Brazil 0%.
In the 5 year period 2001 to 2006 prior to the outbreak of the current wave of terrorism, Pakistan per capita income grew 36%, much faster than the 22% in the last 5 years. This is indicative of Pakistan's potential for faster economic growth if the security situation continues to improve over the next 5 years.
The share of national income of Pakistan's poorest 20% of households has increased from 8.1% to 9.6% since 1990 , according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (NESCAP) Statistical Yearbook for 2015. It's the highest share of income for the bottom income quintile in the region.
Retail Sales Growth:
Rising incomes of Pakistanis are reflected in the retail sales growth which is ranked the fastest in the world. The market is forecast to expand 8.2% a year through 2016-2021 as disposable income has doubled since 2010, according to research group Euromonitor International as reported by Bloomberg News. The size of the middle class is estimated to surpass that of the U.K. and Italy in the forecast period, it said.
|Retail Sales Growth. Source: Bloomberg|
Income Share Change in Asia's Poorest Quintile:
The countries where people in the poorest income quintile have increased their share of total income include Kyrgyzstan (from 2.5 per cent to 7.7), the Russian Federation (4.4 per cent to 6.5), Kazakhstan (7.5 per cent to 9.5) and Pakistan (8.1 per cent to 9.6). India's bottom income quintile has seen its share of income drop from 9% to 7.8%.
|Bottom Quintile Income Share Change. Source: UNESCAP Statistical Yearbook|
Although more people in China have lifted themselves out of poverty than any other country in the world, the poorest quintile in that country now accounts for a lower percentage of total income (4.7 per cent) than in the early 1990s (8.0 per cent). The same unfortunate trend is observed for a number of other countries, including in Indonesia (from 9.4 per cent to 7.6) and in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (from 9.3 per cent to 7.6).
Credit Suisse Wealth Report 2017:
Data released by Credit Suisse with its Global Wealth Report 2017 shows that Pakistan is the most egalitarian nation in South Asia. It also confirms that the median wealth of Pakistani households is three times higher than that of households in India.
Pakistan average wealth per adult: $5,174 vs India $5,976
Pakistan median wealth per adult: $3,338 vs India $1,295
Average household wealth in Pakistan is $15,522 (3 adults) vs India $14,940 (2.5 adults)
Median household wealth in Pakistan is $10,014 (3 adults) vs India $3,237 (2.5 adults)
Pakistan Gini Index 52.6% vs India 83%
World Bank Update on Pakistan:
A November 2016 World Bank report says that Pakistan has successfully translated economic growth into the well-being of its poorest citizens. It says "Pakistan’s recent growth has been accompanied by a staggering fall in poverty".
Rising incomes of the poorest 20% in Pakistan since 2002 have enabled them to enhance their living standards by improving their diets and acquiring television sets, refrigerators, motorcycles, flush toilets, and better housing.
Another recent report titled "From Wealth to Well Being" by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) also found that Pakistan does better than India and China in translating GDP growth to citizens' well-being.
One particular metric BCG report uses is growth-to-well-being coefficient on which Pakistan scores 0.87, higher than India's 0.77 and China's 0.75.
Big Poverty Decline Since 2002:
Using the old national poverty line of $1.90 (ICP 2011 PPP) , set in 2001, the percentage of people living in poverty fell from 34.7 percent in FY02 to 9.3 percent in FY14—a fall of more than 75 percent. Much of the socioeconomic progress reported by the World Bank since 2000 has occurred during President Musharraf's years in office from 2000-2007. It has dramatically slowed or stagnated since 2010.
|Source: World Bank Report Nov 2016|
Using the new 2016 poverty line of $3.50 (ICP 2011 PPP), 29.5 percent of Pakistanis as poor (using the latest available data from FY14). By back casting this line, the poverty rate in FY02 would have been about 64.3 percent.
Pakistan's new poverty line sets a minimum consumption threshold of Rs. 3,030 or $105 (ICP 2011 PPP) per person per month or $3.50 (ICP 2011 PPP) per person per day. This translates to between Rs. 18,000 and Rs. 21,000 per month for a household at the poverty line, allowing nearly 30% of the population or close to 60 million people to be targeted for pro-poor and inclusive development policies—thus setting a much higher bar for inclusive development.
Multi-dimensional Poverty Decline:
A UNDP report released in June 2016 said Pakistan’s MPI (Multi-dimensional poverty index) showed a strong decline, with national poverty rates falling from 55% to 39% from 2004 to 2015. MPI goes beyond just income poverty.
The Multidimensional Poverty Index uses a broader concept of poverty than income and wealth alone. It reflects the deprivations people experience with respect to health, education and standard of living, and is thus a more detailed way of understanding and alleviating poverty. Since its development by OPHI and UNDP in 2010, many countries, including Pakistan, have adopted this methodology as an official poverty estimate, complementing consumption or income-based poverty figures.
Rising Living Standards of the Poorest 20% in Pakistan:
According to the latest World Report titled "Pakistan Development Update: Making Growth Matter" released this month, Pakistan saw substantial gains in welfare, including the ownership of assets, the quality of housing and an increase in school enrollment, particularly for girls.
First, the ownership of relatively more expensive assets increased even among the poorest. In the bottom quintile, the ownership of motorcycles increased from 2 to 18 percent, televisions from 20 to 36 percent and refrigerators from 5 to 14 percent.
In contrast, there was a decline in the ownership of cheaper assets like bicycles and radios.
Housing quality in the bottom quintile also showed an improvement. The number of homes constructed with bricks or blocks increased while mud (katcha) homes decreased. Homes with a flush toilet almost doubled in the bottom quintile, from about 24 percent in FY02 to 49 percent in FY14.
Dietary Improvements for the Poorest 20% in Pakistan:
Decline in poverty led to an increase in dietary diversity for all income groups.
For the poorest, the share of expenditure devoted to milk and milk products, chicken, eggs and fish rose, as did the share devoted to vegetables and fruits.
In contrast, the share of cereals and pulses, which provide the cheapest calories, declined steadily between FY02 and FY14. Because foods like chicken, eggs, vegetables, fruits, and milk and milk products are more expensive than cereals and pulses, and have lower caloric content, this shift in consumption also increased the amount that people spent per calorie over time.
For the poorest quintile, expenditure per calorie increased by over 18 percent between FY02 and FY14. Overall, this analysis confirms that the decline in poverty exhibited by the 2001 poverty line is quite credible, and that Pakistan has done remarkably well overall in reducing monetary poverty based on the metric it set some 15 years ago, says the World Bank.
Per capita income in Pakistan, often described as a "failed state", grew 22% from 2012 to 2017, according to data from international sources. This is remarkable given the particularly bad press the country has received during this period. Also remarkable is the fact that the share of income of the poorest 20% has also grown faster than other economies in Asia. In spite of the country's many challenges on multiple fronts, it has successfully translated its GDP growth into the well-being of its poorest citizens. The share of national income of Pakistan's poorest 20% of households has increased from 8.1% to 9.6% since 1990, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (NESCAP) Statistical Yearbook for 2015. It's the highest share of income for the bottom income quintile in the region. "Pakistan’s recent growth has been accompanied by a staggering fall in poverty", says a November 2016 World Bank report. An earlier report by Boston Consulting Group reached a similar conclusion.
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