Aviation Boom in India and Pakistan

Aviation market in South Asia is among the fastest growing in the world. It is soaring in terms of both domestic and international travel. Last year, the Indian commercial aviation market grew to 176 million passengers and Pakistan's reached 22 million. A total of 22 million passengers (7.2 million domestic, 14.6 million international) flew commercial airlines in Pakistan in 2016-17, up 5.11% from 20.7 million (6.95 million domestic, 13.76 million international) in 2015-16, according to Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). While Pakistan's international aviation market as a percentage of its population is bigger than India's, the Indian domestic market is far outpacing Pakistan's mainly due to greater competition and significantly lower airfares.

Pakistan International Aviation Market in 2016-17. Data Source: CAAP
International Travel:  

Nearly 15 million international passengers flew in and out of Pakistan in fiscal year 2016-17. This number is about a quarter of the 59 million international passengers who flew to and from India in roughly the same period, according to data available from the aviation authorities of the two South Asian countries. India's population is about six and a half times larger than Pakistan's.

Pakistan's state-owned PIA carries 3.2 million international passengers giving it only 22% market in the country's international aviation market. Other major international carriers flying in and out of Pakistan are Emirates (2.2 million),  Shaheen (1.57 million), Air Blue (1.4 million), Saudi Arabian and Qatar (1.1 million each).

Domestic Aviation:

The difference in domestic air traffic between the two countries is far bigger compared to the ratio for international traffic. India has seen its domestic air travel market soar to 117 million passengers versus Pakistan's 7.2 million in 2017.  India's combined aviation market for both domestic and international travel is 176 million versus Pakistan's 22 million passengers. 
Pakistan Domestic Aviation Market in 2016-17. Data Source: CAAP

The other difference in terms of domestic markets of the two nations is that the state-owned Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) enjoys massive 67.2% market share while the state-owned Air India has only 14.2% India's domestic market share and the rest of the market is divided among IndiGo (38.2%), Jet Airways(15.4%), Spice Jet(13.8%) and other smaller domestic airlines.

In Pakistan,  Shaheen (1.17 million), Air Blue (797,628) and Serene (386,970) have the remainder of the domestic market.

Fares and Competition:

As to the reason for India's domestic market being 16 times larger than Pakistan's, let me quote the UK's Financial Times as an explanation:  "A highly competitive domestic aviation market (in India) means that a passenger looking to fly from Delhi to Mumbai on July 1 this year, for example, can pay as little as $35. In Pakistan, someone wanting to do the roughly equivalent trip from Islamabad to Karachi will probably have to fly with the government-controlled Pakistan International Airlines and pay at least $100 to do so".

 Given the basic price-demand elasticity, it makes sense that Pakistan's domestic airfares being three times higher than India's reduce air travel demand to a mere 3.5% of Pakistan's population versus India's 8% of its population.

Level of Service:

Higher airfares in Pakistan do get you better service, according to Kiran Stacey of Financial Times. Here's how he sees it:

"Flying in Pakistan is unlike anywhere else I have been — and the polar opposite to flying in India, where I live. Departing from any of the three major Pakistani cities is the closest a modern traveller is likely to get to experiencing what flying was like in the 1950s. Checking in is effortless and there are no queues at security. At Islamabad airport, you do not even have to go to your gate: you can sit in the cafĂ© until your flight is called and then leave via a downstairs door that takes you straight on to the tarmac and a waiting minibus. Just hours earlier, I had suffered the regular indignity of catching a flight from Delhi airport. It took 20 minutes of disorganised queueing to check in, and another 30 to get through security. Getting on the aeroplane, as usual, reminded me of warfare at the Sino-Indian border, where troops are unarmed and so fight by jostling each other using only their torsos".

Highly Competitive Business:

Commercial aviation business has become much more cut-throat in recent years. It all began to fundamentally change with the passage of the 1978 US Airline Deregulation Act that made it easier for low-cost airlines to enter the market.  Regulations mandating minimum fares no long applied.

Since then, many other countries, including emerging economies, have adopted legislation similar to the US airline law.  Some of the big name airlines of yesteryears like Pan Am, TWA and Eastern Airlines have died. Number of airline passengers across the world has increased dramatically as air fares have plummeted.

State-Owned Airlines: 

Deregulation has forced state-owned airlines around the world  to either shut down or seek big government subsidies to stay in business. Running a successful airline business now requires different management skill sets and efficiencies in the current deregulated and highly competitive environment.

Part of it is technology driven transformation that enables minimizing staff and aircraft time on the ground, higher fuel efficiency and dynamic pricing based on demand. Unfortunately, state-owned airlines are finding it extremely difficult to operate in this environment.  Most of them, including PIA and Air India, incur huge losses year after year and require substantial tax-payer subsidies.

Empty Seats Flying on Karachi-Lahore PIA Flight. Credit: Monis Rahman 
I saw an example of poor management of Pakistan International Airline (PIA) a few days ago when a friend posted a picture of nearly empty cabin on a PIA flight from Karachi to Lahore. There were rows and rows of empty seats which is a rare occurrence in the airline business these days. Efficient airlines use yield management software to cut fares dynamically until their flights reach capacity.  Flying even one empty seat is seen as a problem by professional airline managers.

The other serious issue facing PIA and many other state-owned airlines is that their staffs are not recruited based on merit. It is reported that even the senior managers lacks professional experience of running a commercial airline. Instead, the PIA jobs are doled out as part of the political patronage system that gives favors to the supporters of the ruling politicians.

Summary:

Aviation markets in South Asia are growing rapidly in terms of both domestic and international travel. Last year, Indian air travel market grew to 176 million passengers while Pakistan's reached 22 million. While Pakistan's international aviation market as a percentage of its population is bigger than India's, the Indian domestic market is far outpacing Pakistan's mainly due to greater competition and significantly lower airfares.

Pakistan needs to take a page from the Indian playbook to increase competition and lower prices in the aviation market. This will expand the market, create jobs and make air travel more affordable in the country.


Here's Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discussing the subject with Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/hh99nMnueBA




Comments

Riaz Haq said…
New #IslamabadAirport opens, to handle up to 25m flyers a year. #Pakistan #Islamabad #airports

https://gulfnews.com/news/asia/pakistan/first-pictures-new-islamabad-airport-opens-to-handle-up-to-25m-flyers-a-year-1.2214534

The new airport is capable of serving nine million passengers and 50,000 metric tonnes of cargo annually; expansion plans target servicing about 25 million passengers by 2025.

“The current annual turnover of passengers at the Benazir Bhutto International Airport is about 4.5 million.
The number of passengers is growing by 14 per cent annually as compared to national air passenger growth rate of less than four per cent,” Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Deputy Director General Amir Mehboob was quoted by the Tribute as saying.


The airport comes with a bill of more than Rs100 billion ($861.5m; or Dh3.15 billion), and is connected to both Rawalpindi and Islamabad.


First pictures: New Islamabad airport opens, to handle up to 25m flyers a year
Rs100 billion airport connects both Rawalpindi and Islamabad; boosts capacity to 25 million passengers a year


25m passengers
The new airport is capable of serving nine million passengers and 50,000 metric tonnes of cargo annually; expansion plans target servicing about 25 million passengers by 2025.


“The current annual turnover of passengers at the Benazir Bhutto International Airport is about 4.5 million.
The number of passengers is growing by 14 per cent annually as compared to national air passenger growth rate of less than four per cent,” Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Deputy Director General Amir Mehboob was quoted by the Tribute as saying.

The airport comes with a bill of more than Rs100 billion ($861.5m; or Dh3.15 billion), and is connected to both Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

The airport’s 4 levels
Level 1 - international and domestic passengers’ arrival area, baggage collection and airline offices.
Level 2 - domestic arrivals and departure lounges, visitors’ gallery and immigration counters.
Level 3 - international and domestic check-ins and international departure.
Level 4 - state lounges and commercially important persons lounges

The airport has contemporary design inspired by traditional Islamic geometric patterns. Environmentally-sustainable design strategies have been employed with the use of day light and sun shading to reduce energy use.
The interior texture of granite flooring has been used to ensure dust-free air quality.

The new airport is expected to be boon for both airlines and passengers and help lessen the bottlenecks in commercial aviation in the Pakistani capital.
Around 1,200 Airport Security Force deployed at 85 security towers to ensure safety at the airport with advanced security management systems and two bomb pit facilities.

Tourism
With the launch of new airport, Pakistan is all set to welcome foreign tourists who primarily come to visit the scenic northern areas or to participate in religious festivals.
Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) has announced to establish a modern Tourist Information Centre at the new airport, said PTDC managing director Chaudhry Abdul Ghafoor Khan.
Pakistan is not only rich in Islamic heritage but also a gateway to sacred sites for other religions especially Buddhists and Sikhs.

Many holy sites for Sikhs such as the birthplace of the founder of Sikh religion in Nankana Saheb district, and Gurdwara (monastery) Punja sahib are in Pakistan.
Similarly, the monastery Takht-i-Bhai (Throne of Origins) and the 3,000-year-old Taxila of the Gandhara Valley Civilisation are revered sites for Buddhists and attract pilgrims from China, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Japan and Sri Lanka.

Riaz Haq said…
New #IslamabadAirport opens, to handle up to 25m flyers a year. #Pakistan #Islamabad #airports

https://gulfnews.com/news/asia/pakistan/first-pictures-new-islamabad-airport-opens-to-handle-up-to-25m-flyers-a-year-1.2214534


Facilities
2 runways, each 3.5-km long
90 check-in counters
28-aircraft parking apron
15 air-conditioned jetties (passenger boarding bridges)
2 jetties for Airbus A380
15 remote bays
Cargo apron for parking of 3 aircraft
Main and emergency runways
Taxiways
Aircraft maintenance apron
Four-level terminal building
Parking facility for 2,000 vehicles
9 exit and entry gates
28 escalators
six service lifts
24 elevators
4 inclined travellators (moving walkways)
10 horizontal travellators (moving walkways)
5 luggage conveyor belts
15 bays with separate waiting lounges
Device charging stations
Fingerprint recognition systems
Four-star transit hotel
Convention centre
Duty-free shops
Food court
A mini-cinema
Children’s play area
Cargo terminal
Fuel farm
Air traffic control complex
Fire station rescue facilities
18 water tube-wells
3 water dams


Operators at new airport
Pakistani Airlines
PIA
Shaheen Air
Air Blue
Serene Air

International Airlines
Air Arabia
Air China
China Southern
Emirates
Etihad
Gulf Air
Kuwait Airways
Oman Air
Safi Airways
Saudia
Thai Airways
Turkish Airlines
Others
Riaz Haq said…
It gleams, it glistens, it positively glows. It's Islamabad's new airport!


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-glistening-new-airport-pakistan-sees-ticket-to-reviving-the-countrys-prestige/2018/05/04/42f30c88-431c-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html?utm_term=.f179c461f652


The new Pakistan international airport cost more than double the original budget, and its construction was repeatedly stalled for years amid rumors of financial irregularities. It was built miles away from anything, including the capital Islamabad, with no public transport available. Until last month, it still had inadequate drinking water, and some aviation systems still needed tests, postponing its inauguration yet again.

None of that seemed to matter this week, when the mammoth, ultramodern, $105 million facility finally opened in rural Punjab province. The first arriving flight from Karachi touched down Tuesday morning, under an arc of spray from twin firetrucks, and the pilot waved the national flag from the cockpit.

On Thursday, families waiting for flights oohed and aahed at the vast marble floors and glass walls and took selfies in a landscaped picnic park. Plane crews shook hands with baggage managers. Arriving passengers grinned at glitches, such as being left mistakenly outside a locked terminal door, that would normally have had them fuming.

“This is so beautiful and new. It’s like a dream — no pollution, so much space,” marveled Abdul Rahim, 40, a United Nations employee who had just arrived on a flight from Kabul that would previously have landed at the small, aging terminal in Rawalpindi city that served the capital area for decades.

“It will be good for repairing Pakistan’s image,” he predicted.


Pakistan, a vast but impoverished country, has long been isolated abroad as a dangerous haven for Islamist insurgents and starved for positive recognition. Its few bragging points included a 170-mile highway and the testing of a nuclear device, popularly known here as the “Islamic bomb” but greeted far less kindly by the world community.

This time, virtually everyone is hoping the impressive new Islamabad International Airport, a four-level complex with a smorgasbord of consumer amenities and high-tech passenger services, will be Pakistan’s ticket to revived global prestige and access, offering an attractive gateway to a scenic, mountainous country that has suffered a steep drop in foreign visitors during the past two decades of conflict.

The airport is the nation’s largest, able to accommodate 9 million passengers a year and potentially expand to almost triple that capacity, officials said. It is also the first airport in Pakistan that can accommodate the double-decker Airbus A-380, the world’s largest passenger plane.

“Peace has returned to Pakistan after years of terrorism, and now more tourists are coming. What we needed was an international airport, with high-tech facilities equipped to cater to their needs,” said Chaudhry Abdul Ghafoor, director of the national tourism development corporation. “Now that we have that, many international airlines will start their services here and we estimate that millions of tourists will begin visiting every year.”


The ambitious expansion comes as Pakistan International Airlines, the country’s once-thriving national carrier, has become mired in financial difficulties and mismanagement and now possesses only 32 registered aircraft. Its future is uncertain, and various proposals to privatize or sell it have been inconclusive.

Officials are banking that the airport, built in a barren rural area about 25 miles from the capital, will spawn a profitable hub of domestic commercial and residential development as well as travel services and hotels, creating thousands of jobs. Signs along the nearby highway offer shares in future condo and mall complexes with names like “Airport Enclave” and “Runway View.”
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan PM opens long-delayed new airport in capital Islamabad

https://business.mb.com.ph/2018/05/04/pakistan-pm-opens-long-delayed-new-airport-in-capital-islamabad/

Pakistani Prime Minister (PM) Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on Tuesday inaugurated the long-delayed new airport in the capital, Islamabad, replacing the cramped Benazir Bhutto airport often criticized by travellers.

A Pakistan International Airlines pilot waved a green and white Pakistani flag out of his cockpit window after landing the carrier’s first commercial flight at the New International Islamabad Airport.

With a sleek glass-front entrance, spacious check-in areas and jetway bridges for boarding, the Y-shaped airport promises an end to the congestion that has frustrated air travel in the past.

“This airport rightly reflects what has happened in Pakistan in the last five years,” said Abbasi.

Abbasi’s ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party had been eager to open the new airport before national polls, likely in July, as it touts big-ticket infrastructure as sign of economic progress in the South Asian nation of 208 million people.

Abbasi’s government is spending billions of dollars on upgrading Pakistan’s transport infrastructure and ending energy blackouts, with freshly paved motorways as well as dams and power plants popping up across the country.

Abbasi, who has a pilot’s license and is a founder of a Pakistani budget airline, said new airports in the cities of Multan, Faisalabad, Quetta and Peshawar were in the final stages.

The new Islamabad airport, which has the capacity to handle 15 million passengers annually and space for further expansion, was first suggested in the 1980s and has been more than a decade in the making.

The delays have become a running joke with many Pakistanis, who mock the frequent announcements that the new airport would open soon and subsequent clarifications of further delays. The airport’s most recent delay was last month.

“Nothing is impossible but this project definitely seemed impossible,” quipped Abbasi, in reference to his government inheriting the project in 2013.

The new airport is about 15 km (nine miles) from the capital. Benazir Bhutto airport was in the nearby city of Rawalpindi and attached to a military base.

International travellers often complained about chaotic scenes at the airport and in 2014 it was voted the worst in the world by the “Guide to Sleeping in Airports” website, prompting widespread criticism of the airport in Pakistani media.

The new airport started full operation on Thursday.
Riaz Haq said…
India tried to sell its national airline. It got zero bids

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/31/investing/air-india-privatization-fails/index.html

India has failed to find a buyer for its ailing national airline.
Selling Air India was one of the government's economic priorities for this year, and the failure of the auction will dampen hopes that it could privatize other state-owned companies.

Bidding for the national carrier closed Thursday without a single prospective buyer coming forward.

"As informed by the transaction adviser, no response has been received for the expression of interest floated for the strategic disinvestment of Air India," the Indian Ministry of Civil Aviation said on its official Twitter account.

The government put Air India on the auction block last year, and was offering bidders the chance to buy 76%. It wants to scale back taxpayer support for an airline that has lost money for years.

The auction deadline had already been extended in the hope that a buyer may come forward. The future of the indebted carrier is now very uncertain.

"Further course of action will be decided appropriately," the ministry said in its tweet.

Air India declined to comment, referring the matter to the ministry. Aviation ministry officials did not respond to requests for comment.

Despite its losses, and growing competition from budget carriers such as SpiceJet and IndiGo, Air India is still a major player in an aviation market that is projected to be the world's third biggest by 2026.
Riaz Haq said…
India's airlines have more customers than ever but profits are hard to find

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/03/investing/india-airlines-in-trouble/index.html


Shares in Jet Airways, one of the country's biggest carriers, plunged 7% in Mumbai on Friday following media reports that the company barely has enough money to make it through the next two months.

The stock has lost more than 60% of its value since the start of this year, even as it spends billions to try and compete in the world's fastest-growing aviation market.

In a statement sent to CNNMoney, Jet Airways CEO Vinay Dube slammed the media reports as "incorrect" and "malicious." Dube said the airline was implementing measures to boost revenues and cut costs, and that the company was in talks with its employees.

"Some of these [efficiencies] amongst others include sales and distribution, payroll, maintenance and fleet simplification," he added.

India's Economic Times reported that employees were being asked to take pay cuts of up to 25%.

Related: This Indian airport will fly you to the terminal for $65

More than 68 million passengers flew within India in the first six months of 2018, according to official data, a 22% increase from the same period last year.

The latest available figures from the International Air Transport Association show that India's domestic passenger traffic grew by nearly 17% in the month of May compared to the same month last year. China's grew by almost 12% in the same period, while the United States showed growth of 5.5%.


Millions more Indians are flying
The Indian aviation sector has now enjoyed double-digit percentage growth for 45 straight months.

Jet Airways has responded to that spike by going on a spending spree to boost its fleet.

It plans to add 225 new Boeing (BA) 737 Max jets over the next decade, of which 75 — worth nearly $9 billion at list prices — were purchased less than three weeks ago.

But with several airlines competing to offer Indians cheaper ways to travel, the constant pressure on fares has made it difficult to make money. A surge in oil prices, combined with a plunge in India's currency — the rupee — is squeezing finances across the industry.

"On one side your costs are going up significantly, on the other side your ability to pass on those costs is limited," said Kapil Kaul, India CEO for the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation.

"The Indian market, despite having growth, has been mostly profitless," Kaul added.


Costs are rising, fares not so much
Dube, the Jet Airways CEO, underscored those challenges on Friday.

"The aviation industry is currently passing through a tough phase given a depreciating rupee and the mismatch between high fuel prices and low fares," he said, adding that the airline has come through similar storms in the past.

Jet Airways isn't the only Indian carrier that's under pressure.

Profit at market leader IndiGo fell 97% in the quarter ended June, compared to the same period last year. CEO Rahul Bhatia also blamed the falling rupee and rising fuel costs.

India is also having to prop up its loss-making national carrier.

Since failing to sell a 76% stake in Air India to private investors earlier this year, the government has been forced to pour hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars into the airline to keep it flying.
Riaz Haq said…
#India said on Tuesday it was working on a relief package for its #airline industry, which is forecast to lose up to $1.9 billion this financial year due to rising costs and low fares. #Aviation https://www.cnbctv18.com/aviation/india-plans-relief-package-for-airlines-as-forecast-losses-mount-713341.htm

Two of the biggest and oldest carriers, Jet Airways and state-owned Air India, are struggling to stem losses in the world's fastest-growing domestic aviation market, where competition is intense and fuel taxes are high.

Rajiv Nayan Choubey, the top civil aviation bureaucrat, said that help to cut airline costs was on the way along with a planned $120 million capital injection for Air India, according to Reuters affiliate NewsRise.

Choubey, who was speaking on the sidelines of the International Aviation Summit in New Delhi, did not give details of the planned relief package for the industry.

As well as high fuel taxes, Indian airlines are hit by a goods and services tax on maintenance operations that makes domestic work uncompetitive, consulting firm CAPA India said in a report on Monday.

It forecast an industry loss of up to $1.9 billion in the financial year ending March 31, up from a January estimate of a loss of $430 million to $460 million, the difference fuelled largely by a weakening rupee and a rise in oil prices.

CAPA estimated that India's airlines, including Air India, need an additional $3 billion of capital in the near term to shore up their balance sheets.

Choubey said the government would offer Air India state-guaranteed borrowing worth 21 billion rupees ($294 million), along with an equity infusion of 8.6 billion rupees.

"If we do not support Air India, there may be a value erosion," NewsRise quoted Choubey as saying.

In June, the government said it had been unable to attract bidders for a 76 percent stake in the airline.

Cheap Market

Indian airlines, which have ordered hundreds of new Airbus SE and Boeing Co jets, have struggled to stay profitable despite filling nearly 90 percent of seats as domestic passenger numbers have more than doubled over the past four years.

Cut-throat competition has made India one of the world's cheapest domestic airline markets and deals such as $50 one-way tickets on the two-hour flight from Mumbai to Delhi are easy to find.

"While it is easy to find Indian passengers who want to fly, it's very difficult for airlines to make money," said Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air Transport Association.

Jet Airways last month reported a quarterly loss of 13.23 billion rupees, saying it aimed to cut costs, inject capital and monetise its frequent flyer programme.

In July, budget carrier IndiGo, the country's largest airline, reported its lowest quarterly profit in three years, with earnings down 97 percent.

Infrastructure

The airlines' woes notwithstanding, India has big plans to improve air connectivity as its economy continues to enjoy fast growth, lifting annual air trips to 1 billion in the next 15-20 years, around five times current levels.

The government also wants to build 100 new airports over the next 10-15 years at a cost of about $60 billion, Civil Aviation Minister Suresh Prabhu told the conference on Tuesday. India currently has around 130 airports.

Issues such as land acquisition, however, often delay construction and expansion of airports - and other projects - in India.

The domestic airport in Mumbai, for example, is struggling to keep pace with surging footfalls, and a second airport has yet to be completed despite years in the planning.
Riaz Haq said…
Sad! Passengers suffer nosebleeds on domestic discount airline spawned by #India’s #aviation boom. Where are the regulators? #Modi http://www.catchnews.com/national-news/shocking-at-least-30-passengers-started-bleeding-from-nose-and-ears-onboard-a-jet-airways-flight-because-of-this-shocking-reason-133422.html A shocking incident took place after at least 30 passengers onboard a Jet Airways flight were started bleeding from nose and ears onboard a Jet Airways. Yes, several passengers were fell sick due in mid-air.

The reason behind it was that the crew forgot to maintain the cabin pressure due to which the passengers fell sick and also several complained of a headache.

On Thursday morning, the Jaipur-bound Jet Airways flight 9W 0697 took off from Mumbai airport.

The cabin crew forgot to select the bleed switch during the take-off. Due to an imbalance in the temperature inside the flight, passengers started feeling dizzy and sick.

"Thirty out of 166 passengers experienced nose and ear bleeding, some also complained of a headache," informed news agency ANI.

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