Pakistan Consumer Confidence Index Hit All-Time High in Q2/2018

Pakistan consumer confidence index reached an all-time high of 115 in Q2/2018, up 8 points from 107 in Q1/2018, according to latest The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey (TCB-Global). Pakistan now ranks 9th in the world. Pakistan's neighbor India's consumer confidence was measured at 124, down 6 points from prior quarter. India ranks 3rd in the world.

Global Consumer Confidence Ranking. Source:  Nielsen


Here's an excerpt of the TCB-Global report on Pakistan:

"In Pakistan, consumer confidence has reached an all-time high of 115, following an 8-point increase. Consumers in Pakistan are increasingly optimistic about job prospects and their personal financial situation. However, it is uncertain whether the high level of confidence can be sustained in the future. Pakistan’s new government is likely to approach IMF for assistance to address the country’s worsening external balance, which might lead to significant fiscal and monetary tightening. This, along with rising consumer prices, will pose major challenges to consumer confidence post-election."

The survey indicates that Pakistan's domestic economy remains strong in spite of the rising concerns about balance of payments. The new Pakistani government headed by PTI leader Imran Khan is reporting some successes in alleviating these concerns with help from Islamabad's friends in Beijing and Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has already pledged $6 billion in cash and deferred oil payments. Since returning from a trip to Beijing, Pakistan's Finance Minister Asad Umar has said "Pakistan's immediate balance of payment crisis is over".  It's highly likely that Pakistan will seek yet another IMF bailout with conditions that will force spending cuts and cause economy to slow down this year. This will hurt consumer confidence.

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Comments

Riaz Haq said…
Overseas #Pakistanis remit $7.4 billion in first 4 months of FY19. During October 2018, the inflow of worker’s #remittances amounted to $2,000.47 million, which is 37.7% higher than September 2018 and 20.9% higher than October 2017. #CAD #IMF #Pakistan https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/391754-overseas-pakistanis-remit-74-billion-in-first-four-months-of-fy19

Overseas Pakistani workers remitted $7419.98 million in the first four months (July to October) of FY19, compared with $6,444.46 million received during the same period in the preceding year.

During October 2018, the inflow of worker’s remittances amounted to $2000.47 million, which is 37.7% higher than September 2018 and 20.9% higher than October 2017.


The country wise details for the month of October 2018 show that inflows from Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, UK, GCC countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman) and EU countries amounted to $494.53 million, $412 million, $308.78 million, $298.80 million, $198.30 million and $57.36 million respectively compared with the inflow of $461.07 million, $333.57 million, $215.64 million, $270.46 million, $184.76 million and $51.12 million respectively in October 2017.

Remittances received from Malaysia, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries during October 2018 amounted to $230.68 million together as against $137.83 million received in October 2017.
Riaz Haq said…
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), adverse movement in global oil prices, coupled with strong demand for industrial raw materials – metals and allied products – was mainly responsible for the higher imports. Resultantly, the country’s balance of payments came under severe strain during the past year.


In FY18, Pakistan witnessed a record trade deficit of US$ 37.6 billion; 15.7 percent higher from last year. The broad-based and quantumled rebound in exports – after consecutive declines over the last three years – was overshadowed by surging imports, which almost touched the US$ 61.0 billion mark.


However, the overall exports in first four months of FY19 increased by 3.52 percent to $7.38 billion as compared to $ 7.13 billion worth of goods exported in corresponding period of previous fiscal year. Imports in first four months of FY19 remained intact, going up by 0.06 percent to $ 19.17 billion as against $ 19.16 billion in the same period of FY18.


Pakistan’s trade account is showing early signs of improvement under the spirit of the new economic policy as country’s trade deficit in first four months of current fiscal fell to $ -11.8 billion from the $ -12.1 billion reported in corresponding period of last fiscal, official data showed on Monday.


https://dailytimes.com.pk/321451/pakistans-trade-balance-improving-as-exports-continue-to-grow/

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