Drone Swarms: Saudi Oil Fields Attack Shows Their Destructive Power
Dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This is the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives have dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare. And it is not likely to be the last time as more nations and non-state terror groups are inspired by it to develop and contemplate using such tactics. Some are close to home for Pakistanis. For example, in a clear warning to Pakistan, an Indian NDTV headline on July 12, 2019 blared: "Swarms Of Indian Drones Being Designed To Take Out Targets Like Balakot (Pakistan)". Will Pakistan develop drone swarm capability, especially after India's expected deployment of Russia's S-400 air defense system?
Attack on Saudi Aramco:
Saudi sources have revealed through the media that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit two sites — the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities which produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of carrying out the attack. Iran has denied. Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for the attack.
The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry.
Drone Swarms in Syria:
Israeli claimed earlier this year that its fighter jets hit targets in Syria where Iran was preparing to attack Israel using explosive-laden “killer drones,” according to New York Times. “The drone itself is like a missile,” said Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, an Israeli military spokesman.
Last year, Russian military reported that a swarm of low-tech armed drones attacked a Russian military base in Syria. The swarm was made up of 13 small drones packed with explosives.
Russia said it shot down seven drones using anti-aircraft missiles while the other six were taken under control and landed by its military. Three of the drones survived the landing.
The Russian government accused the Syrian rebels of launching the attack.
India's Drone Swarm Plans:
A team of engineers and software experts at India's state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) and NewSpace Research and Technologies, a Bengaluru based start-up looking at next-generation aviation technologies, is working furiously to fly the first Indian swarm drone prototypes in two years, according to NDTV. The Indian drone initiative is called SWARM or ALFA-S or Air-Launched Flexible Asset, says NDTV.
The NDTV story described India's SWARM as follows: "Each swarm could have dozens of individual drones. If detected, some of the drones would be shot down, but the sheer numbers of the swarm would overwhelm enemy defences such as surface-to-air missile units to ensure a high probability of mission success".
China Drones Swarm:
At the conclusion of the Global Fortune Forum in Guangzhou, China last year, the event's hosts set a world record for the largest drone swarm ever deployed. For 9 minutes, 1,180 drones danced and blinked out an aerial show. It was cool. It was also an interesting look into the potential future of aviation, according to a report in Popular Science.
Earlier in 2019, China's Global Times reported that country had built helicopter drones capable of intelligent swarm attacks. The drones in the swarm can be a combination of different types, including those that can drop proximity explosive mortar shells, while others can carry grenade launchers, or make suicide attacks, Liu Liyuan, a spokesperson of the company, told the Global Times.
American and British Drone Swarms:
Earlier this year, British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson told attendees at an event hosted by a London think tank that UK will fund the development of “swarm squadrons of network-enabled drones capable of confusing and overwhelming enemy air defenses,” to complement the British fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.
Los Angeles Times recently reported that the U.S. military has been exploring different iterations and uses of the drone swarm concept for more than a decade, using research programs bearing names such as Cicada, Gremlins and Valkyrie.
Pakistani Drone Swarms:
So far there has been very little reported about Pakistan working on drone swarms technology. However, the need for Pakistan to have such technology has become much more pressing after India's decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense system. The S-400 is reportedly very effective against even the most modern fighter jets like the F-35.
Pakistan does have low-flying terrain-hugging cruise missile Babar but it is far more expensive and problematic to use in conventional war. Drone swarms offer a cheaper, better and less problematic alternative to cruise missiles.
Summary:
Recent attack on Saudi oil facilities has ensured that swarming attack drones will soon be real weapons for militaries around the world. Reports suggest that some rebels in Syria have also used drone swarms to attack Russian military bases. Among the nations reportedly pursuing this technology are China, US, UK and India. It is also very likely that Pakistan will also pursue development and deployment of drones swarms with the expected deployment of Russian made S-400 missile defense system by India.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
South Asia Investor Review
Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West
Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability
Is India a Paper Elephant?
Pakistan's Aircraft Exports
Pakistan Navy Modernization
IDEAS 2014 Arms Show
Pakistan Defense Industry
Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"
Pakistan's Human Capital
Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars
Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability
Riaz Haq Youtube Channel
VPOS Youtube Channel
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| Drones Swarm |
Saudi sources have revealed through the media that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit two sites — the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities which produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of carrying out the attack. Iran has denied. Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for the attack.
The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry.
Drone Swarms in Syria:
Israeli claimed earlier this year that its fighter jets hit targets in Syria where Iran was preparing to attack Israel using explosive-laden “killer drones,” according to New York Times. “The drone itself is like a missile,” said Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, an Israeli military spokesman.
Last year, Russian military reported that a swarm of low-tech armed drones attacked a Russian military base in Syria. The swarm was made up of 13 small drones packed with explosives.
Russia said it shot down seven drones using anti-aircraft missiles while the other six were taken under control and landed by its military. Three of the drones survived the landing.
The Russian government accused the Syrian rebels of launching the attack.
India's Drone Swarm Plans:
A team of engineers and software experts at India's state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) and NewSpace Research and Technologies, a Bengaluru based start-up looking at next-generation aviation technologies, is working furiously to fly the first Indian swarm drone prototypes in two years, according to NDTV. The Indian drone initiative is called SWARM or ALFA-S or Air-Launched Flexible Asset, says NDTV.
The NDTV story described India's SWARM as follows: "Each swarm could have dozens of individual drones. If detected, some of the drones would be shot down, but the sheer numbers of the swarm would overwhelm enemy defences such as surface-to-air missile units to ensure a high probability of mission success".
China Drones Swarm:
At the conclusion of the Global Fortune Forum in Guangzhou, China last year, the event's hosts set a world record for the largest drone swarm ever deployed. For 9 minutes, 1,180 drones danced and blinked out an aerial show. It was cool. It was also an interesting look into the potential future of aviation, according to a report in Popular Science.
Earlier in 2019, China's Global Times reported that country had built helicopter drones capable of intelligent swarm attacks. The drones in the swarm can be a combination of different types, including those that can drop proximity explosive mortar shells, while others can carry grenade launchers, or make suicide attacks, Liu Liyuan, a spokesperson of the company, told the Global Times.
American and British Drone Swarms:
Earlier this year, British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson told attendees at an event hosted by a London think tank that UK will fund the development of “swarm squadrons of network-enabled drones capable of confusing and overwhelming enemy air defenses,” to complement the British fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.
Los Angeles Times recently reported that the U.S. military has been exploring different iterations and uses of the drone swarm concept for more than a decade, using research programs bearing names such as Cicada, Gremlins and Valkyrie.
Pakistani Drone Swarms:
So far there has been very little reported about Pakistan working on drone swarms technology. However, the need for Pakistan to have such technology has become much more pressing after India's decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense system. The S-400 is reportedly very effective against even the most modern fighter jets like the F-35.
Pakistan does have low-flying terrain-hugging cruise missile Babar but it is far more expensive and problematic to use in conventional war. Drone swarms offer a cheaper, better and less problematic alternative to cruise missiles.
Summary:
Recent attack on Saudi oil facilities has ensured that swarming attack drones will soon be real weapons for militaries around the world. Reports suggest that some rebels in Syria have also used drone swarms to attack Russian military bases. Among the nations reportedly pursuing this technology are China, US, UK and India. It is also very likely that Pakistan will also pursue development and deployment of drones swarms with the expected deployment of Russian made S-400 missile defense system by India.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
South Asia Investor Review
Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West
Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability
Is India a Paper Elephant?
Pakistan's Aircraft Exports
Pakistan Navy Modernization
IDEAS 2014 Arms Show
Pakistan Defense Industry
Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"
Pakistan's Human Capital
Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars
Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability
Riaz Haq Youtube Channel
VPOS Youtube Channel
Comments
Pakistan on Tuesday carried out a successful test of its latest Ra’ad-II air-launched cruise missile, with a new range of 600 kilometers.
According to the military’s ISPR media branch, the homegrown Ra’ad-II “significantly enhances air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea." The weapon features enhanced guidance and navigation systems, “ensuring engagement of targets with high precision.”
When first unveiled as a mock-up in 2017 during an annual parade in Pakistan, the Ra’ad-II had a stated range of 550 kilometers. Slight changes to the intake design led to speculation that the extra range has been achieved due to a more advanced engine than that used in the Ra’ad-I, which has a range of 350 kilometers.
That speculation may have been correct. Though the footage from Tuesday’s test was deliberately low resolution, the rear of the Ra’ad-II appears to have been entirely redesigned with a new intake and control surfaces.
The Ra’ad-I had what may be described a large “twin tail,” whereas the Ra’ad-II appears to have adopted a more compact "X" configuration layout common with similar missiles in service elsewhere. That change should aid in its carriage on a wider range of platforms, perhaps even internally if Pakistan’s fifth-generation fighter program, Project Azm, bears fruit and features an internal weapons bay.
To date, the Ra’ad missiles have only been seen carried by Mirage III strike fighters, which have a wide-track undercarriage.
The range increase would allow the missile to launch well within Pakistan’s territory while being able to hit critical targets within India — New Delhi is roughly 430 kilometers from Lahore, for instance. That need has taken on a greater importance due to India’s air defense modernization efforts through the acquisition of systems such as the Russian S-400.
Washington also recently cleared the Integrated Air Defense System for sale to India.
Mansoor Ahmed, a senior fellow at the Center for International Strategic Studies in Islamabad who specializes in Pakistan’s nuclear program and its delivery platforms, believes the Ra’ad-II is “Pakistan’s answer to India’s development of the Nirbhay cruise missile.”
He believes Ra’ad-II “will significantly enhance the operational and targeting flexibility of the air leg of Pakistan's strategic forces.”
“It gives enhanced capability for precision strikes against critical military targets on land and at sea from safer standoff ranges. With its extended range, hitherto invulnerable sites, forces and assets can now be taken out with greater precision that were previously only covered by Pakistan’s ballistic missiles," he said.
The new longer-range Ra’ad II “significantly enhances air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea,” ISPR said in a February 18 statement. “The weapon system is equipped with state of the art guidance and navigation systems ensuring engagement of targets with high precision.”
A video of the launch released by ISPR shows the Ra’ad II being launched from a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Mirage III fighter aircraft. ISPR referred to the new weapon system as “a major step towards complementing Pakistan’s deterrence capability.”
The Ra’ad II was first publicly revealed as a mock-up in 2017 during Pakistan’s annual military parade in Islamabad.
The 4.85 meter-long Ra’ad-II had a stated range of 550-600 kilometers. It is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear payloads.
Pakistan’s Ra’ad (also known as the Hatf VIII) series bears a resemblance to several South African stand-off missile projects, including the MUPSOW cruise missile and Torgos long-range guided weapon. Pakistan and South Africa have worked together on advanced weapons development in the past.
The 350-kilometer variant of the Ra’ad cruise missile was first test-launched by the Pakistan Air Force in 2007. The development of the latest Ra’ad II variant may in part be influenced by India’s air defense modernization efforts.
Pakistan’s February 16 test launch comes after the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on 10 February that the U.S. Department of State had approved a potential $1.86 billion Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to India of an “Integrated Air Defense Weapon System (IADWS).”
The IADWS sales package includes a range of sensors, weapons systems, and support equipment. The potential sale also includes AN/MPQ-64Fl Sentinel radar systems, AMRAAM AIM-120C-7/C-8 missiles and associated guidance and control equipment, and Stinger FIM-92L missiles.
India is also in the process of procuring Russian-made Almaz-Antei S-400 Triumf air defense systems (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler). India placed a $5.5 billion order for five S-400 air defense squadrons (regiments) for service in the Indian Air Force.
Given compatibility and interoperability issues, India would have to operate the two systems in isolation.
The acquisition of the Russian long-range air defense systems has caused strong opposition from the United States, which has threatened economic sanctions on India under U.S. legislation known as the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
China recently conducted a test involving a swarm of loitering munitions, also often referred to as suicide drones, deployed from a box-like array of tubular launchers on a light tactical vehicle and from helicopters. This underscores how the drone swarm threat, broadly, is becoming ever-more real and will present increasingly serious challenges for military forces around the world in future conflicts.
The China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology (CAEIT) reportedly carried out the test in September. CAEIT is a subsidiary of the state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), which carried out a record-breaking drone swarm experiment in June 2017, involving nearly 120 small fixed-wing unmanned aircraft. Four months later, CAEIT conducted its own larger experiment with 200 fixed-wing drones. Chinese companies have also demonstrated impressive swarms using quad-copter-type drones for large public displays.
We don't know the name or designation of the drones CAEIT used in its September test, or that of the complete system being employed. However, video footage, seen below, shows that the unmanned aircraft are very similar in form and function to more recent models of China Poly Defense's CH-901 loitering munition.
When the tube-launched CH-901 first emerged in 2016, it featured a pair of pop-out wings, as well as a folding v-tail. More recently, that design has evolved and replaced the v-tail with another set of pop-out wings and folding twin-tail arrangement, similar to the drones we see in the CAEIT test video.
Of course, designs featuring two pairs of folding wings are very common for tube-launched drones and loitering munitions, including the Switchblade suicide drone from U.S. manufacturer AeroVironment. The unmanned aircraft CAEIT employed in its experiment is also reminiscent of American defense contractor Raytheon's Coyote.
The Coyote comparison also extends to launch options CAEIT demonstrated in its recent test. The 48-tube ground-based launcher, which is mounted on a modified 6x6 version of the Dongfeng Mengshi light tactical vehicle, is similar in some respects to multi-tube trail-mounted launchers that the U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Research used to launch Coyotes as part of its Low-Cost UAV Swarming Technology (LOCUST) effort, as seen in the video below. Poly Defense has also shown at least a mock-up of an array of tubular launchers for the CH-901.
It's worth noting that any of these box-like launchers could also be installed on ships, as well as deployed in a static position on the ground.
CAEIT's test also involved at least one drone launched from a tube mounted on a Bell 206L helicopter, as well as one that popped out of a tube dropped from a what appears to be a Robinson R-series helicopter. A portion of the 206L's tail boom was blurred out in the video footage for unclear reasons. Coyote is notably capable of being air-launched, as well. The U.S. Navy has also experimented with dropping swarms of Perdix drones, which also feature two pairs of folding wings, but are much smaller, from F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.
A generation of #engineers and students are engaged in efforts to develop & build civil #drones for #Pakistan. Civilian drone apps include #infrastructure inspection, #delivery business, #mapping, #agriculture & #mining. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2331335/pakistans-silent-drone-revolution
https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1465025303584010241?s=20
The last two decades have reshaped the technological landscape of the world perhaps more drastically than any other time in history. The digital revolution, which perhaps began not that remarkably in the second half of the previous century, has evolved and expanded exponentially. Once seen as novelties for the well off, electronic items like smart devices and digital cameras have now become integral to daily life.
But while new generation of upgrades in these gadgets, smartphones and laptops hog most public attention, the civilian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or drone has gone through a silent but drastic evolution of its own. The world over, these miniature flying machines are now an essential tool in the kit of various industries. Thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, their immense utility is now clearer than ever before.
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In July 2020, the government of Pakistan shared plans to formulate a National Drone Policy and in March 2021, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced creation of Civil Drone Authority to regulate unmanned aircraft in Pakistan.
Ikram highlighted that the National Drone Policy needed a three pronged approach.
“Firstly, it should enable the growth of UAV industry in the country by turning it economical to design and manufacture UAVs in Pakistan as opposed to importing them,” he said. “Secondly, it should provide a practical framework for authorisation of UAV flying in coordination with CAA and other stakeholders.”
Finally, he added that it should enable the formation of UAV ports and training centers so that our next generation is in step with rest of the world.
Many stakeholders term absence of approval of drone policy a major hurdle in growth of the drone industry in Pakistan.
Giving details of the National Drone Policy, Siddiqui said that it would demand licensing of drone because the government needed to know who is flying them and for what purpose.
“This will curb smuggling and increase legitimate businesses which is a good thing for the industry,” he said. “Following implementation of the policy, local and international drone dealers in Pakistan would be encouraged with the passage of time.”
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Raza Sabri, who is involved in production of customised drones for defence forces and the government, agreed that the market of non-combat drones in Pakistan was quite visible and it was growing day after day. According to him, the most prominent civilian applications of drone included land survey, mapping, agriculture use and mining.
He appreciated that the revenue earned by his company from non-combat drones was rising as well given the rapid adoption of service drones in Pakistan. Sabri added that his enterprise was exploring this segment and at this point, the potential of such machines in Pakistan was extremely strong.
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According to Sabri, the biggest hurdle to the drone ecosystem was the absence of a dedicated policy to regulate drones. “Massive amount of work was done in this area and the government took a huge amount of stakeholders, including us, on board however the federal cabinet has not ratified it yet,” Sabri elaborated. “Until the policy takes effect, the arrangement of drone components and usage of drones will remain a huge challenge in Pakistan.”
“Increasingly, unmanned systems are becoming a game changer,” said Peter W. Singer, an expert on drone warfare at New America, a research group in Washington. “It’s not just about the raw capability of the drones themselves — it’s the multiplying effect they have on nearly every other human and system on the battlefield.”
For Mr. Abiy, the drones arrived just in time.
He launched a military campaign in Tigray in November 2020, a year after he won the Nobel Peace Prize, in coordination with the leader of neighboring Eritrea. But his forces suffered a humiliating defeat last summer when Tigrayan rebels forced them from Tigray, then started to push south. By late November the Tigrayans were approaching the city of Debre Birhan, about 85 miles north of Addis Ababa.
But they could go no further. Swarms of drones appeared overhead, striking soldiers and supply convoys, Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a leading Tigrayan commander, said in an interview with The New York Times.
“At one time, there were 10 drones in the sky,” he said. “You can imagine the effect. We were an easy target.”
Mr. Abiy built his drone arsenal by tapping the sympathy of foreign autocrats and a booming segment of the global arms trade.
Even as he talked about negotiations, Mr. Abiy was turning to other countries to bolster his military. Nearly every day, cargo flights arrived from a military base in the United Arab Emirates, one of Mr. Abiy’s closest allies.
The Emiratis had trained Mr. Abiy’s Republican Guard and provided crucial military support at the start of the war, running drone strikes that took out Tigrayan artillery and weapons depots, a Western official and a former Ethiopian official said.
The Emirati strikes stopped in January after President Biden came to power, under pressure from Washington. But they have resumed in recent months, largely in the form of the latest Chinese-made drones, the officials said.
The Emirati drone strikes, under the direction of the national security adviser Tahnoun bin Zayed al-Nahyan, appear to be a snub to American diplomatic efforts to end the war. American officials say they are trying to draw the U.A.E. into peace efforts as an ally, but that cooperation is limited.
In a meeting with the United States regional envoy, Jeffrey Feltman, earlier this week, Sheikh al-Nahyan denied that his country was shipping weapons to Ethiopia, an American official with knowledge of the meeting said.
By contrast, Mr. Abiy’s dealings with Turkey have been relatively open.
He signed a military pact in August with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose Bayraktar TB2 drone played a decisive role in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is manufactured by a company run by Mr. Erdogan’s son-in-law.
Turkish drones are attractive to many African countries seeking battle-tested, relatively cheap hardware with few strings attached. “Even in Africa, everywhere I go, they want U.A.V.s,” Mr. Erdogan boasted in October after a tour of Nigeria, Togo and Angola. (Drones are also known as unmanned aerial vehicles).
After Bayraktar drones appeared in Ethiopia recently, Turkish officials insisted the drone sale was a purely commercial activity — defense and aviation exports to Ethiopia rose to $95 million this year, up from $235,000 in 2020, the Turkish Exporters Assembly reported.
But in recent days, Turkish officials have privately claimed to have frozen exports to Ethiopia, apparently in response to international pressure over a war that has become a byword for atrocities and starvation.
At least 400,000 people are living in famine-like conditions, according to the United Nations.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-unmanned-vehicles-armed-robots-standoff-indian-forces
Reports from India claim that China has started to deploy armed robotic vehicles to handle the altitude and terrain that has proven too difficult for its troops.
China and India clashed in Sept. 2020 during a border dispute along the southern coast of Pangong Lake in an area known in China as Shenpaoshan and in India as Chushul, but the armies continued their standoff along the two nations' borders throughout 2021. China has now reportedly deployed unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) to the region of Tibet to strengthen its position.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) acquired the vehicles – known as the Sharp Claw and the Mule-200 – as early as 2014, but they have not seen much deployment until now. The Chinese military has deployed around 120-300 Mules to Tibet, the majority of them stationed near the border, WION News reported.
Operators can control the Claw wirelessly, but it can also move on its own, according to National Interest. The Mule can serve as either an unmanned delivery truck or utilize weapons, such as mounted guns.
The PLA has deployed around 88 Sharp Claws into Tibet, with 38 of them in the western part of the province close to where the Indian and Chinese armies maintain a standoff, Times Now News reported.
The region in which the vehicles may have deployed is described as exceedingly arid, remote, and largely inhospitable. The area mainly serves as access for a few commerce routes to cross the desert.
The PLA has also deployed the VP-22 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle, which can help move troops through the difficult terrain or serve as an ambulance. Most of the 70 units reportedly deployed to Tibet have also focused in the western sector.
Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Harvard Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic have called on world governments to halt the development of war robots for almost a decade, but efforts continue.
Tech company Zhong Tian Zhu Kong Technology Holdings developed the Mule, which has a range of roughly 31 miles (50 km)and can carry up to 440 pounds (200 kg) of ammunition, supplies or weapons.
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Chinese Defense Company NORINCO (China North Industries Corporation) developed the Sharp Claw for reconnaissance and limited engagements. The operator wears a small control unit to utilize the vehicle, Army Recognition reported.
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/turkish-aerospace-pakistani-institution-to-jointly-produce-uav-parts
One of Turkey’s leading unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) producers, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), has inked a contract with Pakistan's National Engineering and Science Commission (NESCOM) to produce components for TAI's medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) combat drone, Anka.
TAI and NESCOM will be jointly responsible for employment, resource and technology transfer within the scope of the agreement that was inked to expand the markets for the Turkish drones, an Anadolu Agency (AA) report said Saturday.
TAI General Manager Temel Kotil said, “The contract we made with Pakistan within the scope of our Anka UAV systems will provide significant gains to the UAV industry. This acquisition, especially with Pakistan’s National Engineering and Science Commission, will strengthen our UAVs.”
The Anka UAV performed its maiden flight in September 2016 and entered serial production in 2017.
The drone, which is manufactured locally, is currently in active use by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), the Gendarmerie General Command and the National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
Anka can stay in the air for more than 24 hours at an altitude of 30,000 feet (9,144 meters) with a payload capacity of 250 kilograms (550 pounds).
Anka has three configurations. The Anka-S configuration has Beyond Line Of Sight (BLOS) capability through satellite links and is being used by the TSK and the Gendarmerie units. The Anka-B configuration can use Link Relay capabilities and is also used by the TSK and the Gendarmerie The Anka-I, which is the configuration that performs signal intelligence, is used by the MIT.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-future-of-war-has-come-in-ukraine-drone-swarms-kamikaze-kyiv-31dd19d7
By Eric Schmidt
The innovations that have led to Kyiv’s remarkable successes against Russia will change combat dramatically.
Kramatorsk, Ukraine
My most recent trip to Ukraine revealed a burgeoning military reality: The future of war will be dictated and waged by drones.
Amid a front line covering 600 miles, the Ukrainian counteroffensive faces a formidable Russian force, as it tries to break through to the Azov Sea and stop the Russian overland supply line to Crimea. Between the two armies, there are at least 3 miles of heavily mined territory followed by rows of concrete antitank obstacles, with artillery pieces hidden in nearby forests. The Russian military has amassed so much artillery and ammunition that it can afford to fire 50,000 rounds a day—an order of magnitude more than Ukraine.
Traditional military doctrine suggests that an advancing force should have air superiority and a 3-to-1 advantage in soldiers to make steady progress against a dug-in opponent. Ukrainians have neither. That they’ve succeeded anyway is owing to their ability to adopt and adapt new technologies such as drones.
Drones extend the Ukrainian infantry’s limited reach. Reconnaissance drones keep soldiers safe, constantly monitoring Russian attacks and providing feedback to correct artillery targeting. During the daytime, they fly over enemy lines to identify targets; at night, they return with payloads.
Unfortunately, Russia has picked up these tactics, too. Behind the initial minefields and trenches blocking Kyiv’s advance, there’s a more heavily defended line. If courageous Ukrainians make it there, Russian soldiers will send in drones and artillery. All the while Russia’s army—which excels at jamming and GPS spoofing—is working to take out Ukrainian drones. A May report from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies estimated that Ukraine was losing as many as 10,000 a month even before the start of the counteroffensive.
Yet Ukraine has continually out-innovated the enemy. Its latest drone models can prevent jamming, operate without GPS guidance and drop guided bombs on moving targets. Ukrainian command centers use personal computers and open-source software to classify targets and execute operations.
Ukraine has also pioneered a more effective model of decentralized military operations that makes its tech use varied and quickly evolving. In the war’s early stages, Ukraine’s government put the new Digital Ministry in charge of drone procurement but left important decision making to smaller units. While the ministry sets standards and purchases drones, the brigades are empowered to choose and operate them. Ten programmers can change the way thousands of soldiers operate. One brigade I visited independently designed its own multilayered visual planning system, which coordinates units’ actions.
To win this war, Ukraine needs to rethink 100 years of traditional military tactics focused on trenches, mortars and artillery. But the innovations it and Russia make will carry on far beyond this particular conflict.
Perhaps the most important is the kamikaze drone. Deployed in volume, this first-person-view drone—invented for the sport of drone racing—is cheaper than a mortar round and more accurate than artillery fire. Kamikaze drones cost around $400 and can carry up to 3 pounds of explosives. In the hands of a skilled operator with several months of training, these drones fly so fast they are nearly impossible to shoot down.
https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/pentagon-pushes-ai-research-toward-lethal-autonomous-weapons/
There is little dispute among scientists, industry experts and Pentagon officials that the U.S. will within the next few years have fully autonomous lethal weapons. And though officials insist humans will always be in control, experts say advances in data-processing speed and machine-to-machine communications will inevitably relegate people to supervisory roles.
That's especially true if, as expected, lethal weapons are deployed en masse in drone swarms. Many countries are working on them — and neither China, Russia, Iran, India or Pakistan have signed a U.S.-initiated pledge to use military AI responsibly.
It's unclear if the Pentagon is currently formally assessing any fully autonomous lethal weapons system for deployment, as required by a 2012 directive. A Pentagon spokeswoman would not say.
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NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. -- Artificial intelligence employed by the U.S. military has piloted pint-sized surveillance drones in special operations forces' missions and helped Ukraine in its war against Russia. It tracks soldiers' fitness, predicts when Air Force planes need maintenance and helps keep tabs on rivals in space.
Now, the Pentagon is intent on fielding multiple thousands of relatively inexpensive, expendable AI-enabled autonomous vehicles by 2026 to keep pace with China. The ambitious initiative — dubbed Replicator — seeks to "galvanize progress in the too-slow shift of U.S. military innovation to leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap, and many," Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said in August.
While its funding is uncertain and details vague, Replicator is expected to accelerate hard decisions on what AI tech is mature and trustworthy enough to deploy - including on weaponized systems.
There is little dispute among scientists, industry experts and Pentagon officials that the U.S. will within the next few years have fully autonomous lethal weapons. And though officials insist humans will always be in control, experts say advances in data-processing speed and machine-to-machine communications will inevitably relegate people to supervisory roles.
That's especially true if, as expected, lethal weapons are deployed en masse in drone swarms. Many countries are working on them — and neither China, Russia, Iran, India or Pakistan have signed a U.S.-initiated pledge to use military AI responsibly.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/why-did-pakistan-test-its-mirv-capable-ababeel-missile/
As India’s ballistic missile defense system is further tested and development, Islamabad was compelled to illustrate its own response capabilities.
By Usman Haider and Abdul Moiz Khan
November 18, 2023
In late October 2023, Pakistani test-fired an Ababeel missile for the first time since 2017. Pakistan’s decision to develop and test multiple independent re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capable missiles like the Ababeel are within Pakistan’s policy of “full spectrum deterrence under the dictum of credible minimum deterrence.” The Ababeel, the Pakistani military explained back in 2017, was developed to ensure the “survivability of Pakistan’s ballistic missiles.”
The development of such MIRV capable missiles is a response to threat perceptions emerging from New Delhi, because of India’s efforts to develop and expand its ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Islamabad fears that India’s operationalization of its BMD systems on land and at sea would significantly undermine Pakistan’s ability to retaliate to an Indian first strike. Pakistan is worried that the Indian BMD program, along with New Delhi’s enhanced missile capabilities, especially in terms of speed and precision, is part of an Indian strategy to launch counterforce strikes against Pakistan’s deterrent forces. Therefore, the goal of Ababeel’s development is to neutralize the threat that an operational Indian BMD system poses to Pakistan’s deterrent and ultimately to South Asia’s strategic stability.
India is presently developing a missile defense shield to protect its command-and-control centers, major population and industrial centers, and critical military infrastructure, including missile storage sites, airfields, and large cantonments. The Indian BMD program commenced in the 1990s, with the first interceptor tested on November 7, 2006, making the country the fourth to test the anti-ballistic missile apart from the United States, Israel, and Russia.
India has a two-tiered ballistic missile defense system, consisting of Prithvi Air Defense Vehicle (PAD)/Prithvi Defense Vehicle (PDV) and Ashwin Advanced Air Defense (AAD) interceptors. The former can intercept missiles at exo-atmospheric altitudes between 50-180 kilometers, while the latter can destroy missiles within atmospheric (endo-atmospheric) altitudes, ranging between 20-40 kilometers. Both interceptors have been tested successfully multiple times.
According to Indian media sources quoting Indian defense officials, the first phase of India’s BMD will be deployed soon and the system will initially protect two major cities: New Delhi, the capital, and Mumbai, a key business center.
Phase 2 trials of the BMD system began on November 2, 2022, when India successfully test-fired the AD-1 interceptor, capable of intercepting long-range ballistic missiles in low exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric conditions. The new interceptor will increase the range of interception up to 5,000 km, a significant enhancement from the Phase 1 range of 2,000 km, according to Janes, quoting Indian Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) officials.
To support the tracking and targeting of incoming projectiles, India is constructing a BMD radar site at Udaipur, likely to become operational by 2024, along with other sites in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The sites are being developed to host long-range tracking radar (LRTR), the Swordfish, an advanced variant of Israel’s Green Pine radar.
https://www.defensenews.com/training-sim/2023/12/27/watch-pakistan-test-new-long-range-precision-strike-weapon/
The Fatah 2 test “marks another step in Pakistan’s efforts to field multiple precision strike artillery systems with variable ranges to hold adversary targets at risk,” said Frank O’Donnell, a nonresident fellow with the Stimson Center think tank’s South Asia Program and a senior research adviser at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network.
The fact Pakistan developed the weapon, he added, demonstrates the country has learned lessons from recent or ongoing conflicts.
“When viewed in the context of Pakistan’s parallel efforts to field a similarly diverse arsenal of combat drones, its implementation of certain lessons — which the military feels the Azerbaijan-Armenia and Russia-Ukraine wars have reinforced — become clear,” O’Donnell told Defense News. “They include the advantages of assigning adversary precision ground bombardment missions to relatively low-cost artillery and combat drone systems, preserving manned fighter aircraft for higher-end strike missions and interception of their counterparts.”
India’s S-400 air defense system is likely a key target of the Fatah 2, he added, as Pakistan could fire the weapon as a decoy to create “greater room for a combat drone to strike the S-400 itself in the midst of the bombardment.”
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/s-400-ukraine-overwhelms-worlds-best-defense-systems-reports/
Ukraine launched a new attack on the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea and the Russian mainland, reportedly damaging a warship while firing eight Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs).
Before that, towards the end of October, reports also claimed Ukraine destroyed four S-400 systems, possibly using the newly acquired Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) from the United States (US).
The early November attacks on the Kerch Strait specifically displayed the Ukrainian air force’s new tactics meant to overwhelm and divert Russian air defense’s attention, Russian experts have said.
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According to the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) intelligence update on November 2, Russia has “likely lost at least four long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) launchers to Ukrainian strikes” in the preceding week. It quoted Russian media reports on October 26 reporting the loss of three “SA-21 launchers” in the Luhansk region, with Ukrainian sources reporting “additional Russian air defense losses in Crimea.”
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As for the kind of weapon used to hit the S-400, Business Insider quoted a Russian Telegram channel saying they used the ATACMS, particularly the M39 missile, a 150-kilometer range ‘area weapon’ that scatters 950 M74 submunitions over a vast expanse. Forbes said the M39’s first victims were 21 Russian helicopters in an October 17 strike “in Luhansk and outside Berdyansk in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine.”
Videos on X (formerly Twitter) showed smoke rising from Luhansk, claiming this was an S-400 system. Earlier pictures from October 26 also showed a detached engine of the M39 missile fired from the ATACMS launcher in the settlement of Bilorichensk, Lutuginsky District, temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast. This proved the use of the missile on Russian targets.
https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/the-stunning-effectiveness-of-houthi-harassment/
A Lesson in 21st Century Sea Control
The Navy’s current presence mission is problematic for 21st-century maritime operations. Missile technology has rapidly accelerated, becoming faster and more capable of reaching across ever-further distances. Maintaining sea control is a taller order than in previous ages.
Confined to the oceans and seas, navies are vulnerable to missiles and threats from land. As technology continues to develop, those distances continue to lengthen. Presence for its own sake exposes naval vessels inside of the weapon engagement zone of modern threats, without necessarily exercising local control of the sea. Indeed, the Houthis have shown exactly how difficult it is to maintain command of the sea in the 21st century. Their small, asymmetric blockade may not be inflicting exorbitant, acute damages to ships, but the simple threat of attack has disturbed one of the globe’s major maritime chokepoints.
Further complicating the matter, the Houthis have utilized cheap drones and ballistic missiles in their efforts. The U.S. Navy has praised the efforts of the USS Carney for its actions in combatting Houthi attacks, but the asymmetric costs cannot be understated. The Carney and other American ships in the region have likely employed SM-2 missiles (at an average cost of $2 million) against improvised drones and missiles that are estimated to cost maybe $2,000 apiece. To put this in perspective, the U.S. Navy is effectively spending a cost differential upward of 1000:1. Nor does the U.S. Navy possess an unlimited supply of SM-2s, which take months if not years to build. Furthermore, the Houthis have shown that they do not even need to sink vessels in order to hold a waterway hostage.
A cheap, locally assembled flying arsenal is changing the economics of war. Thousands of Ukraine's deadliest weapons were made on the top three floors of a residential high-rise in Kyiv.
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https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/cheap-racing-drones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale
Feb 5, 2024 — How cheap drones are transforming warfare in Ukraine. First Person View drones have achieved near mythical status on the front lines
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-11/diy-bomb-carrying-drones-change-the-economics-of-war-big-take
Ukraine, confronted with limited resources and far fewer soldiers than Russia as the war drags into its third year, has found that its best weapons against the massive invading force can be made just about anywhere.
Over 100 drone producers have emerged since the Russian invasion, with many of them making first-person-view drones that look a lot like the ones you’d find in a Walmart toy section (minus the bomb). They cost as little as $400 and pack a charge strong enough to destroy an armored vehicle. Three can take out a $9 million tank.
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https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conflict
From drones that fit in the palm of the hand to drones weighing more than 1,000 pounds (454 kilograms), Ukraine has built and acquired a diverse fleet of remotely piloted aircraft to complicate and frustrate Russia’s advances. The constantly evolving scope of this technology and its ever-growing use signal not only the potential for drones to level the playing field in the Russia-Ukraine war, but also their ability to influence how future conflicts are waged.
Why is the war in Ukraine a hotbed for drones?
As the war enters its third calendar year, neither side is close to achieving air superiority. Most military analysts expected that Russia, with its superior air power, would quickly seize control of contested airspace early in the conflict. But surprisingly, Ukraine’s defenses, later bolstered by Western systems, were able to repel and deter Russian aircraft from making near-border and cross-border strikes. The inability of either side to break through the other’s integrated air defenses has forced them to increase the agility of their fielded forces and rely more heavily on standoff weapons, including long-range artillery, missiles, and drones. These conditions have led to the development of new drone technologies that could help Ukraine level the playing field in the air battle and possibly turn the tide of the war in its favor.
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https://thebulletin.org/2023/11/threat-in-the-sky-how-cheap-drones-are-changing-warfare/
On October 7, in a surprise attack, Hamas penetrated Israel’s famous air defense system, the Iron Dome, using small, relatively inexpensive commercial drones as part of a larger assault that killed more than 1,400 people and sparked an ongoing conflict that has left thousands dead and injured. Among other actions, the drones disabled the surveillance and observation capabilities of Israel’s watchtowers along the Gaza border.
Although drones have been around for more than a century and featured prominently in combat for several years, until recently their high price tag meant only countries with hefty defense budgets like the United States and Israel could afford them. Large-scale repurposing of commercial drones was first used in the conflict that began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This, experts believe, became a blueprint for Hamas militants in their attack on Israeli military infrastructure early last month.