Drone Swarms: Saudi Oil Fields Attack Shows Their Destructive Power

Dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This is the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives have dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare.  And it is not likely to be the last time as more nations and non-state terror groups are inspired by it to develop and contemplate using such tactics.  Some are close to home for Pakistanis. For example, in a clear warning to Pakistan, an Indian NDTV headline on July 12, 2019 blared: "Swarms Of Indian Drones Being Designed To Take Out Targets Like Balakot (Pakistan)".   Will Pakistan develop drone swarm capability, especially after India's expected deployment of Russia's S-400 air defense system?

Drones Swarm
Attack on Saudi Aramco:

Saudi sources have revealed through the media that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit two sites — the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities which produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of carrying out the attack. Iran has denied. Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for the attack.

The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry.

Drone Swarms in Syria:

Israeli claimed earlier this year that its fighter jets hit targets in Syria where Iran was preparing to attack Israel using explosive-laden “killer drones,” according to New York Times. “The drone itself is like a missile,” said Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, an Israeli military spokesman.

Last year, Russian military reported that a swarm of low-tech armed drones attacked a Russian military base in Syria. The swarm was made up of 13 small drones packed with explosives.

Russia said it shot down seven drones using anti-aircraft missiles while the other six were taken under control and landed by its military. Three of the drones survived the landing.

The Russian government accused the Syrian rebels of launching the attack.

India's Drone Swarm Plans:

A team of engineers and software experts at India's state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd  (HAL) and NewSpace Research and Technologies, a Bengaluru based start-up looking at next-generation aviation technologies, is working furiously to fly the first Indian swarm drone prototypes in two years, according to NDTV. The Indian drone initiative is called SWARM or ALFA-S or Air-Launched Flexible Asset, says NDTV.

The NDTV story described India's SWARM as follows: "Each swarm could have dozens of individual drones. If detected, some of the drones would be shot down, but the sheer numbers of the swarm would overwhelm enemy defences such as surface-to-air missile units to ensure a high probability of mission success".

China Drones Swarm:

At the conclusion of the Global Fortune Forum in Guangzhou, China last year, the event's hosts set a world record for the largest drone swarm ever deployed. For 9 minutes, 1,180 drones danced and blinked out an aerial show. It was cool. It was also an interesting look into the potential future of aviation, according to a report in Popular Science.

Earlier in 2019, China's Global Times reported that country had built helicopter drones capable of intelligent swarm attacks. The drones in the swarm can be a combination of different types, including those that can drop proximity explosive mortar shells, while others can carry grenade launchers, or make suicide attacks, Liu Liyuan, a spokesperson of the company, told the Global Times.

American and British Drone Swarms:

Earlier this year, British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson told attendees at an event hosted by a London think tank that UK will fund the development of “swarm squadrons of network-enabled drones capable of confusing and overwhelming enemy air defenses,” to complement the British fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

Los Angeles Times recently reported that the U.S. military has been exploring different iterations and uses of the drone swarm concept for more than a decade, using research programs bearing names such as Cicada, Gremlins and Valkyrie.

Pakistani Drone Swarms:

So far there has been very little reported about Pakistan working on drone swarms technology. However, the need for Pakistan to have such technology has become much more pressing after India's decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense system. The S-400 is reportedly very effective against even the most modern fighter jets like the F-35.

Pakistan does have low-flying terrain-hugging cruise missile Babar but it is far more expensive and problematic to use in conventional war. Drone swarms offer a cheaper, better and less problematic alternative to cruise missiles.

Summary:

Recent attack on Saudi oil facilities has ensured that swarming attack drones will soon be real weapons for militaries around the world. Reports suggest that some rebels in Syria have also used drone swarms to attack Russian military bases. Among the nations reportedly pursuing this technology are China, US, UK and India. It is also very likely that Pakistan will also pursue development and deployment of drones swarms with the expected deployment of Russian made S-400 missile defense system by India.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

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Pakistan-China Defense Industry Collaboration Irks West

Pakistan's Cyber Attack and Defense Capability

Is India a Paper Elephant?

Pakistan's Aircraft Exports

Pakistan Navy Modernization

IDEAS 2014 Arms Show

Pakistan Defense Industry

Silicon Valley Book Launch of "Eating Grass"

Pakistan's Human Capital

Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollars

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

VPOS Youtube Channel

Comments

Riaz Haq said…
#Indian cities are within #Pakistan’s #Raad 2 #ALCM range of 600 km of Pakistani airspace: #Delhi, #Agra, #Ahmedabad, #Jaipur, #Indore. Some of these cities were nominally in range of the #Babur #GLCM, but easier to get an ALCM closer than a GLCM TEL.

Pakistan on Tuesday carried out a successful test of its latest Ra’ad-II air-launched cruise missile, with a new range of 600 kilometers.

According to the military’s ISPR media branch, the homegrown Ra’ad-II “significantly enhances air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea." The weapon features enhanced guidance and navigation systems, “ensuring engagement of targets with high precision.”

When first unveiled as a mock-up in 2017 during an annual parade in Pakistan, the Ra’ad-II had a stated range of 550 kilometers. Slight changes to the intake design led to speculation that the extra range has been achieved due to a more advanced engine than that used in the Ra’ad-I, which has a range of 350 kilometers.

That speculation may have been correct. Though the footage from Tuesday’s test was deliberately low resolution, the rear of the Ra’ad-II appears to have been entirely redesigned with a new intake and control surfaces.

The Ra’ad-I had what may be described a large “twin tail,” whereas the Ra’ad-II appears to have adopted a more compact "X" configuration layout common with similar missiles in service elsewhere. That change should aid in its carriage on a wider range of platforms, perhaps even internally if Pakistan’s fifth-generation fighter program, Project Azm, bears fruit and features an internal weapons bay.

To date, the Ra’ad missiles have only been seen carried by Mirage III strike fighters, which have a wide-track undercarriage.

The range increase would allow the missile to launch well within Pakistan’s territory while being able to hit critical targets within India — New Delhi is roughly 430 kilometers from Lahore, for instance. That need has taken on a greater importance due to India’s air defense modernization efforts through the acquisition of systems such as the Russian S-400.

Washington also recently cleared the Integrated Air Defense System for sale to India.

Mansoor Ahmed, a senior fellow at the Center for International Strategic Studies in Islamabad who specializes in Pakistan’s nuclear program and its delivery platforms, believes the Ra’ad-II is “Pakistan’s answer to India’s development of the Nirbhay cruise missile.”

He believes Ra’ad-II “will significantly enhance the operational and targeting flexibility of the air leg of Pakistan's strategic forces.”

“It gives enhanced capability for precision strikes against critical military targets on land and at sea from safer standoff ranges. With its extended range, hitherto invulnerable sites, forces and assets can now be taken out with greater precision that were previously only covered by Pakistan’s ballistic missiles," he said.
Riaz Haq said…
600 kilometer range Ra'ad 2 air launched #cruise #missile is #Pakistan's latest response to #India's acquisition of #Russian S-400 & #American “Integrated Air Defense Weapon System (IADWS). #Raad2 #ALCM can hit #Delhi, #Agra, #Ahmedabad, #Jaipur, #Indore https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/pakistan-test-launches-raad-ii-nuclear-capable-air-launched-cruise-missile/

The new longer-range Ra’ad II “significantly enhances air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea,” ISPR said in a February 18 statement. “The weapon system is equipped with state of the art guidance and navigation systems ensuring engagement of targets with high precision.”

A video of the launch released by ISPR shows the Ra’ad II being launched from a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Mirage III fighter aircraft. ISPR referred to the new weapon system as “a major step towards complementing Pakistan’s deterrence capability.”

The Ra’ad II was first publicly revealed as a mock-up in 2017 during Pakistan’s annual military parade in Islamabad.

The 4.85 meter-long Ra’ad-II had a stated range of 550-600 kilometers. It is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear payloads.


Pakistan’s Ra’ad (also known as the Hatf VIII) series bears a resemblance to several South African stand-off missile projects, including the MUPSOW cruise missile and Torgos long-range guided weapon. Pakistan and South Africa have worked together on advanced weapons development in the past.

The 350-kilometer variant of the Ra’ad cruise missile was first test-launched by the Pakistan Air Force in 2007. The development of the latest Ra’ad II variant may in part be influenced by India’s air defense modernization efforts.

Pakistan’s February 16 test launch comes after the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on 10 February that the U.S. Department of State had approved a potential $1.86 billion Foreign Military Sale (FMS) to India of an “Integrated Air Defense Weapon System (IADWS).”

The IADWS sales package includes a range of sensors, weapons systems, and support equipment. The potential sale also includes AN/MPQ-64Fl Sentinel radar systems, AMRAAM AIM-120C-7/C-8 missiles and associated guidance and control equipment, and Stinger FIM-92L missiles.

India is also in the process of procuring Russian-made Almaz-Antei S-400 Triumf air defense systems (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler). India placed a $5.5 billion order for five S-400 air defense squadrons (regiments) for service in the Indian Air Force.

Given compatibility and interoperability issues, India would have to operate the two systems in isolation.

The acquisition of the Russian long-range air defense systems has caused strong opposition from the United States, which has threatened economic sanctions on India under U.S. legislation known as the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

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