Pakistan to Become World's 6th Largest Cement Producer By 2030

Pakistan's rank as world's leading cement producer will rise from 12th in 2018 to 6th by 2030. It will replace Japan among the world's top 10 cement producing nations in 2030, according to World Cement Association forecast. Cement consumption is an important indicator of development activity and economic growth. Pakistan's domestic cement sales are continuing to grow, up 9.2% in October, 2019 from the same month last year. Total sales (local and export) in 4-month period between July and October 2019 stood at 16.117 million tons, 4.5 per cent higher than 15.419 million tons during the same period last year.

Source: World Cement Association

Last year, Pakistan produced 41.14 million tons of cement, according to International Cement Review. The country's cement industry has already built capacity to produce 59.5 million tons in anticipation of future demand for housing and infrastructure.  World Cement Association expects Pakistan to produce 85 million tons, 2% of the world's cement production in 2030.

Currently, China produces more than half of all the cement used in the world. India produces 8% and  and European Union 3%. The three will continue to be at the top in 2030. However, China's share will drop to 35% while India's share will double to 16%.

Pakistan's domestic cement sales grew 9.2% in October, 2019 from the same month last year. Total sales (local and export) in 4 months period between July and October 2019 stood at 16.117 million tons, 4.5 per cent higher than 15.419 million tons during the same period last year.  Cement consumption is an important indicator of the state of economy. It is the most important construction material. It drives construction industry that is among the biggest employers in the world. Cement is used to build homes, factories, schools, hospitals, roads, bridges, ports and all kinds of other infrastructure.

Recent Spike in Public Sector Development Spending (PSDP)

Development of infrastructure under China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects is continuing to drive cement demand in the country. In addition, construction of major new housing communities is underway. One example of such a community is Karachi's Bahria Town. It is being built on the outskirts of Pakistan's financial capital is among the world's largest privately developed and managed cities.  It is spread over an area of a little over 70 square miles, larger than the 49 square miles area of San Francisco. When completed, Bahria Town will house over a million people, more than the entire population of San Francisco.

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Comments

Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan #cement industry to add another 10 million tons capacity to reach 70 million tons in 2020. #construction #CPEC #NayaPakistan #Housing https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/167897/10mta-of-new-cement-capacity-to-come-on-stream-in-pakistan.html

A big number of capacities will be added in Pakistan's cement industry, later this month and in early next year, according to market analysts. Current capacity projects are forecast to add around 10Mta of extra capacity to the present 59.42Mta. This is expected to lead to higher levels of competition and price wars in the coming year.

According to IMS Research, from December 2019 onwards, the northern market will see multiple expansions with Lucky Cement (2.6Mta in December 2019), Kohat Cement (2.3Mta in December 2019) and Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC) (2.6Mta slated for 3QFY20). In the south PIOC is adding 2.5Mta in 3QFY20. The extra output is anticipated to test pricing power, particularly in the north due to limited export opportunities following the suspension of exports to India, although a sustainable growth trend may be able to hold prices at current levels.

Growth in November 2019
While reviewing the dispatch data for November 2019, experts attribute it to the second postponement of CNIC condition on sales (delayed until January 2020) and a pick-up in construction activity (especially on the private side). Disbursements under Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) have also increased by 64 per cent YoY during FY20TD, to PKR297bn (US$1.79bn).
Riaz Haq said…
91-Kilometer 4-lane #Lahore-#Sialkot #Motorway M11 opened for traffic. M11 has 7 interchanges, 6 flyovers, 24 bridges, 22 underpasses, 13 subways and 274 culverts. Connects #industries in Sialkot, #Gujranwala & #Gujrat to Lahore in a big boost to #exports. https://nation.com.pk/19-Mar-2020/lahore-sialkot-motorway-opened-for-traffic

The project will reduce total distance between both the cities from two and half hours to only 50 minutes.

The project was initiated by the previous government of Pa­kistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in 2017. The project is completed by Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) on Built Operate Transfer (BOT) mode. The maintenance and operation of said motorway would remain with FWO for next 25 years after which the road would be hand­ed over to the National High­ways Authority.

When contacted, a spokesper­son for NHA Muhammad Saleem confirmed that the motorway has been opened for commut­ers on Wednesday. He informed that the inauguration ceremony of this project could not be ar­ranged due to the emergence of corona virus.

According to the NHA docu­ments, the four-lane motorway having two lanes on each side has been completed at the cost of around Rs.43 billion. There are 7 interchanges, 6 flyovers, 24 bridges, 22 underpasses, 13 subways and 274 culverts have been included in this project.
The motorway starts from La­hore where it is connected with eastern bypass and Ring Road while its first interchange is sit­uated at Kala Shah Kaku which joins it with N-5, commonly known as GT Road as well as the Lahore-Islamabad Motorway (M-2).

Its second interchange links Muridke and Narowal while third interchange connects Aimanabad and Wando. The fourth interchange links district Gujranwala and Pasroor while the fifth one is between Daska and Pasroor.

The sixth interchange falls be­tween the Daska and Sialkot while the last interchange is sit­uated around 15km in the west of Sialkot city.

It is pertinent to mention here that this is the place which is considered as a gateway to Sialkot, Kharian and Wazirabad.

When contacted by The Na­tion, MNA from Sialkot and a senior leader of PML-N Kha­waja Muhammad Asif main­tained that the completion of Lahore-Sialkot Motorway is the fulfilment of another promise made by his leader Nawaz Sha­rif — the former prime minister.

“It was the vision of Nawaz Sha­rif to connect all regions through infrastructure to strengthen the federation of Pakistan”, he said, adding; “We had the plan to ex­tend said motorway from Sialkot to Dina via Kharian and then it was to be linked with proposed Mirpur to Muzaffarabad Motor­way and Lahore-Islamabad Mo­torway (M-2) by crossing Rawat at Rawalpindi.

He criticised by saying that the incumbent government is visionless and its agenda is de­struction not the development.

The completion of this long-awaited project will im­prove connectivity of industri­al triangle of Sialkot, Gujranwa­la, Gujrat-Wazirabad to the rest of the country especially Lahore — resulting in a big boost to exports.

The area was a key manufac­turing part of the country, ac­counting for about 15 percent of Pakistan’s annual exports. Exports from Sialkot included sports goods, surgical equip­ment, leather garments, riding gear, polo equipment, badges, motorbike accessories and ag­ricultural products including the world-famous Basmati rice. The neighbouring Gujranwala is the center of ceramics and tex­tile products, while Wazirabad and Gujrat provide a big share of cutlery.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan records 28% growth in #export of #cement/clinker in 8 months of fiscal year. It reached 5.94 million tons in 8MFY19-20 & can be attributed to an increase in cement exports to #Afghanistan & unprecedented surge in clinker exports to world #market https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/168502/pakistan-records-28-growth-in-export-of-cement-clinker-8mfy20.html#.XnVW9qlWhdY.twitter

All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers' Association (APCMA) has reported that country saw a growth of 28 per cent in cement and clinker exports during first eight months of the ongoing financial year 2019-20. It reached 5.939Mt in 8MFY19-20 and can be attributed to an increase in cement exports to Afghanistan and unprecedented surge in clinker exports to the global market.

However, Pakistan's Federal Bureau of Statistics is yet to release official data for the export of cement and clinker from Pakistan for the period of February/July – February 2019-29.

According to APCMA, cement exports to Afghanistan rose by 54.8 per cent to 1.737Mt 8MFY20, but exports to India remain suspended since last year. Cement exports from Pakistan to other international markets fell by three per cent to 1.297Mt. However, clinker exports continued to bode well, recording growth of 100 per cent with dispatches of over 2.904Mt clinker.

Outlook
Moving forward, the corona virus pandemic has engulfed global trade and industry. Pakistan has closed its borders with Afghanistan and Iran in a bid to stop spread of virus and this has also suspended export of cement from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

In addition, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy today. The industry, including cement, is desperately expecting reduction in interest rate from 13.25 per annum following the impact of the corona virus, slowdown in the world economy, little fall in inflation, etc. If is reduced, it would greatly benefit the industry on financing front in Pakistan.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan moves to save face as #coronavirus hits Belt and Road. "The world....will be a different place by the time the pandemic is over. Investment flows will shrink, and China will be one of the very few countries with available capital" #China #CPEC https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt-and-Road/Pakistan-moves-to-save-face-as-coronavirus-hits-Belt-and-Road2

The government of Pakistan has ordered the resumption of all infrastructure and energy projects that are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, but experts believe the move is a matter of face-saving.

Work on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a major piece of the Belt and Road, stopped when the novel coronavirus started to spread in Pakistan in February. According to Johns Hopkins University data, Pakistan has confirmed 9,216 cases as of Tuesday, including 192 deaths.

Naghmana Hashmi, Pakistan's ambassador in Beijing, told Pakistani media on Sunday that a number of mechanisms have been established to complete all corridor projects within the prescribed time frame. But analysts say restarting the projects at the height of the pandemic is meant to spare Beijing and Islamabad embarrassment.

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Amid the economic crisis, some have questioned the economic viability of Belt and Road projects. According to the Planning Commission of Pakistan, the country's top development planning body, Chinese skilled laborers are paid 1,300% more than Pakistani laborers for the Main Line 1 (ML-1) railway project, a discrepancy it says must be rationalized.

The commission has also asked Pakistan Railways to evaluate the impact of a huge Chinese loan of almost $9 billion for the ML-1, which is the single largest infrastructure project for the corridor in the country. Pakistan expects 90% of the funding for the ML-1 to come from the Chinese loan. The commission fears the terms may saddle the country with heavy debt if it is not looked into now.

On the other hand, there are bullish voices who say that resuming Belt and Road projects is worth the risk.

Hasaan Khawar, a public policy analyst based in Islamabad, believes the corridor's special economic zones can help Pakistan solve its economic woes. "The world is changing fast, and it will be a different place by the time the pandemic is over. Investment flows will shrink, and China will be one of the very few countries with available capital," Khawar said. He added that the corridor and the zones provide a ready framework for Pakistan to attract Chinese capital and should, therefore, be a priority for Pakistan.

Malik believes that the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis will leave China better positioned as a global power and savior of a world in deep crisis. After this, the world will see a continuation and expansion of Belt and Road projects, he says.

Kugelman sees the corridor as the most concrete and active part of the Belt and Road and says its trajectory will be shaped to a great extent by how the corridor develops. He adds that if corridor projects are put on hold until the pandemic has ended, the Belt and Road as a whole could take a pause. If they move ahead, that portends more forward movement for the initiative in the near future, Kugelman says.

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