Solar Power Boom in Pakistan

Falling solar panel prices and soaring rates for grid electricity are driving a renewable power boom in Pakistan. A second factor spurring the growth in clean energy installations is the requirement of major western apparel brands for garments and textile manufacturers to switch to clean energy. As a result, the solar panel imports in the country jumped from 2,800 MW in 2022 to 5,000 MW in 2023, in spite of stringent import controls imposed by the government. Solar imports are on track to reach 12,000 MW in 2024, according to solar installers. The total current installed generation capacity in Pakistan is around 40,000 MW. Grid electricity demand in Pakistan plunged in 2023 by nearly a sixth and a decline in 2024 would mark the first time in 16 years that annual electricity use has fallen consecutively, data from energy think tank Ember showed, according to Reuters.

Pakistan Solar Panel Imports. Source: PV Magazine


Omar Malik, the CEO of Shams Power, a major solar system contractor in Pakistan, was recently quoted by PV Magazine as saying: “In 2022, 2.8 GW of solar panels were imported into Pakistan. In 2023, about 5 GW, despite the import controls, and this year the prediction is for up to 12 GW”. 

Aamir Hussain, chairman Pakistan Alternative Energy Association, told Arab News that solar panels of around 1,800 MW were purchased and installed last year, which was expected to jump to 3,000 MW this year due to the lower prices of the panels and increased customer demand.

 “Pakistan will be spending over $3.5 billion [this year] on solar panel imports only as this doesn’t include import of batteries, inverters and other auxiliary items,” Hussain said. “Pakistan needs to follow consistent policies regarding renewable energy to meet its national and international obligations for the greenhouse gas emissions.”

Pakistan's Monthly Solar Imports in millions of US$. Source: Bloomberg


Japanese publication Nikkei Asia recently reported seeing residential building rooftops covered with solar panels in Islamabad. It also reported proliferation of rooftop solar in small towns and villages across the country. In particular, the Nikkei story mentioned the remote village of Kardigap with a population of 5,000, in Balochistan province, where solar panels are becoming more common on the rooftops of houses. 

Responding to western apparel brands' demand for sustainability, a number of large Pakistani textile manufacturers are switching to clean energy, particularly solar. Tayyab Group of Industries (TGOIs), a major textile manufacturer, has recently signed an MOU to install a 20 MW solar system for its needs. Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Limited announced recently that it will install a 17.1 MW roof-top solar power plant to meet its energy needs.

While rapid uptake of solar is good news for the planet, it does create a major fiscal issue for the Pakistani government struggling to pay for power produced by the independent power producers (IPPs). The IPPs, many of them Chinese, secured a guaranteed return on investment indexed to the U.S. dollar, plus payment for fixed capacity charges -- covering their debt servicing and other fixed costs -- regardless of whether the power plants are operational, according to Nikkei Asia. As the demand for the grid power from the IPPs declines with rising solar, the taxpayers are still on the hook for the unused installed capacity charges running into billions of dollars. Higher power tariffs and taxes will only make the situation worse. 

Capping Net Metering power and reducing payments for supplying excess power to the grid are not going to solve the problem either. It will only encourage more consumers to switch to rooftop solar and use less electricity from the grid. Self consumption of the rooftop solar power saves significant energy costs for the consumer. 

It seems the only way forward for the Pakistan government is to renegotiate the terms with the IPPs to significantly reduce grid power costs to address the growing cost gap between rooftop solar and the grid power. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Clean Energy Revolution in Pakistan

Pakistan Electric Vehicle Policy

Nuclear Power in Pakistan

Recurring Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan's Response to Climate Change

IPP Contacts Bankrupting Pakistan

Renewable Energy for Pakistan

Net Metering in Pakistan

LNG Imports in Pakistan

Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ownership of Appliances and Vehicles in Pakistan

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Comments

Riaz Haq said…
The macroeconomics of electricity tariffs


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1190204-the-macroeconomics-of-electricity-tariffs

The macroeconomic landscape and power tariffs in Pakistan undergo quarterly adjustments, driven by a medley of factors. For instance, data from the Sahiwal coal power plant illustrates how these variables impact electricity generation costs and, consequently, power tariffs. Exchange rates are a linchpin in the power tariff equation, affecting the cost of imported fuels for power generation. From a reference period of 2016 and the exchange rate of Rs104.594/USD, the rupee has depreciated sharply to Rs278.500/USD in the April-June 2024 quarter. The tariff has been indexed to the US dollar and it reflects increases in various costs: fixed operating and maintenance costs have risen by 235 per cent, return on equity has increased by 184 per cent, debt repayment has gone up by 169 per cent, and interest charges have surged by 343 per cent.

Interest rates, both domestic and international, also bear heavily on power tariffs. The three-month KIBOR (Karachi Interbank Offered Rate) surged from 6.150 per cent to 21.990 per cent, while the three-month LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) climbed from 1.380 per cent to 5.560 per cent. These higher rates inflate the cost of borrowing for power generation companies, with the cost of working capital soaring from Rs0.1541/kWh to Rs1.2568/kWh. The interest charge component of the tariff similarly rose from Rs0.3458/kWh to Rs1.5314/kWh, reflecting the escalating costs of servicing local and foreign debt.

Inflation weaves its influence through every aspect of power generation costs. The US CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased from 246.819 to 310.326, while Pakistan’s N-CPI (National CPI) surged from 131.010 to 260.010. These inflationary pressures push up prices for goods and services necessary for power plant operation and maintenance. For instance, fixed O&M (Operations and Maintenance) costs for foreign components rose from Rs0.1601/kWh to Rs0.5360/kWh, and for local components, from Rs0.1976/kWh to Rs0.3922/kWh.

This dramatic slide has skyrocketed the cost of imported coal from Rs13,605 per ton to Rs73,901.55 per ton. The ripple effect of this spike in import costs is a steep increase in power generation costs, inevitably passed on to consumers through higher tariffs.

Fluctuating global coal prices and calorific values further compound the issue. The weighted average price of imported coal has shot up, driving overall energy production costs higher. This is reflected in variable O&M costs for foreign components, which rose from Rs0.0763/kWh to Rs0.2554/kWh, and for local components, from Rs0.0628/kWh to Rs0.1246/kWh. The combined effect of these macroeconomic factors is a significant rise in power tariff components. The total capacity charge escalated from Rs3.2696/kWh in the reference period to Rs10.3445/kWh for the April-June 2024 quarter. The variable component of energy purchase price similarly climbed from Rs0.1391/kWh to Rs0.3800/kWh showing 173 per cent increase.
Riaz Haq said…
Solar energy is the only viable option amid skyrocketing electricity bills and after Punjab and Sindh, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is also planning to distribute solar panels among the needy ones.

https://pakobserver.net/kp-govt-solar-scheme-2024-check-eligibility-for-2kilowatt-solar-setup/

The provincial government of KP now came up with program to distribute free solar panels among 1lac households in the region. CM Gandapur’s advisor on Finance, Muzammil Aslam, revealed this initiative.

Muzammil said each household will receive a complete 2-kilowatt solar setup, batteries, DC fans, and inverters. He explained that government is looking to equip 1lac households with these complimentary solar panel systems.

He also highlighted KP’s existing infrastructure of over 90 power plants that produce electricity at rates between Rs 6 to Rs 7 per unit, contrasting sharply with the Rs 27 per unit charged by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).



KP Solar Scheme
In the first phase, only protected consumers will be able to apply for government funded solar scheme.

Solar Scheme 2024
Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz and Sindh CM Murad Ali Shah announced electricity to over 200,000 households in partnership with the World Bank. Each household will receive complete solar system for Rs 7,000, encompassing solar panels, charge controllers, and batteries to power one fan and three LED bulbs.

Maryam Nawaz also sanctioned distribution of 1-kilowatt solar systems to thousands of families. This decision was made during a meeting chaired by CM Maryam Nawaz to evaluate energy projects. The solar systems will be provided to low-consumption electricity users, including two solar panels, batteries, an inverter, and associated wiring.

Punjab Govt bringing solar system for 45 lakh consumers: Maryam

Chief Minister of Punjab Maryam Nawaz Sharif, chairing the 11th meeting of the provincial cabinet on Tuesday, said that they were bringing solar system for 45 lakh consumers who spend up to 500 units. She said, ”Due to increase in electricity bills, there is anxiety among the public, together with my team, have found a … Continue reading Punjab Govt bringing solar system for 45 lakh consumers: Maryam
Riaz Haq said…
Dr Gohar Ejaz
@Gohar_Ejaz1
I'm sharing data from NEPRA for Jan 24 to March 24 showing a capacity payment of 150 billion PKR per month. Please note how this amount is distributed to various IPPs, with half running below 10% capacity. Four power plants are receiving 1000 crores per month each with #zero power supply.* This money, our halal income, is being given to 40 families under the guise of capacity charges. These plants should be declared merchant plants, where payments are made only for electricity produced, and we should buy from the cheapest suppliers. The government should not do business at the expense of the people of Pakistan. NEPRA must include representation from all large consumers in its distribution and management. This exploitation must end.
#Pakistan #ElectricityBill #IPPs

https://x.com/Gohar_Ejaz1/status/1814597980629966990

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Pakistan faces a 70% electricity price hike due to hidden charges - Profit by Pakistan Today

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2024/07/11/pakistan-faces-a-70-electricity-price-hike-due-to-hidden-charges/

During the seminar organized by the Centre for Economic and Energy Journalists (CEEF) in collaboration with SDPI, Dr. Waleed noted alarming increases in capacity payments, citing a 216% surge over five years in the capacity charges of an imported coal-fired power plant in Punjab. He attributed this escalation to factors like US dollar indexation and interest payments on circular debt, which now constitute 70% of the overall tariff.

Dr. Waleed underscored that the burden of these costs is disproportionately higher on smaller consumers, terming the current tariff structure as regressive. He urged the government to renegotiate IPP contracts, echoing past efforts that successfully ended US dollar indexation for some plants.

Ahad Nazir, another SDPI energy expert, pointed out that declining grid consumption, coupled with substantial investments in power generation without commensurate upgrades in transmission infrastructure, has led to excessive capacity and inflated capacity payments.

Efforts are underway to decentralize tariff structures at distribution companies to promote competitive pricing, although significant changes are not expected in the near term.

In conclusion, the escalating hidden costs embedded in Pakistan’s electricity tariffs are exacerbating affordability challenges for consumers and necessitate immediate policy interventions to stabilize

Riaz Haq said…
‘Sky-high power tariffs hindering exports’ - Business


https://www.dawn.com/news/1846800

“We are all sinking under the present Rs2 trillion capacity payments to 40 owners of these closed and partially operational IPPs,” Mr Ejaz told Dawn on Friday. He said that rising energy prices have affected industrial expansion, particularly in textiles and garments.

Mr Ejaz said that 53 IPPs are completely closed, but still receiving regular capacity payments from the government for not producing a single unit. He questioned the justification for such payments, which are collected from consumers and businesses.

In 2015, 13,000MW was consumed, and the capacity fee was Rs200bn with an installed capacity of 20,000MW. Mr Ejaz said that the current capacity payment was Rs2tr and that the consumption in 2024 still remains at 13,000 MW, with an installed capacity of 43,400 MW.

Mr Ejaz claimed that the same consumer is being charged ten times the capacity charges for the same units. He went on to claim that power is generated at Rs35 (including fuel charges of Rs10.60 and Rs24 in capacity charges) and distributed by Discos to paying domestic consumers at Rs60, yet the government still loses trillions of rupees.

He said the solution was to increase growth and invest in export-oriented industries, regretting that exports were not conceivable given the current high energy prices.
Riaz Haq said…
Huasun Celebrates Successful Delivery of 100MW+ HJT Solar Modules to Pakistan - SolarQuarter


https://solarquarter.com/2024/08/01/huasun-celebrates-successful-delivery-of-100mw-hjt-solar-modules-to-pakistan/

Leveraging its leading HJT technology, Huasun has been actively engaging in the development of Pakistan’s solar industry. The company has partnered with several local factory owners and EPC companies, including E-Group, DSG, and ESL. Notably, in September 2023, Huasun signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) exceeding 100MW with its strategic EPC partner E Group. Additionally, in early 2024, Huasun established an exclusive strategic distribution partnership with AE Power, a prominent local solar company, to ensure a steady supply of high-efficiency HJT products to Pakistan.

Huasun’s HJT products have been successfully integrated into multiple solar projects across Pakistan. Notable installations include industrial rooftops at the 5MW Tayyab Textile Mill, the 3MW Sarfraz Textile Mill, and the 3MW Nisar Spinning Textile Mill. Importantly, Huasun has delivered a substantial number of HJT modules with power outputs exceeding 720W to the region, demonstrating the company’s leadership in both power and efficiency of the commercial solar panels.


“As more projects are successfully completed and local customers continue to recognize and trust Huasun’s products, the company’s reputation and influence in Pakistan are steadily increasing. Surpassing 100MW in shipments makes Pakistan one of the most prominent regions in Huasun’s global journey.” Said Rana Farhan, Director- Middle East & Pakistan at Huasun.

Pakistan, located on the South Asian subcontinent, enjoys excellent solar conditions with nearly 3,000 hours of sunshine annually. However, the region also faces hot and dry climates, high electricity demand, and substantial electricity costs. In response, the local government has introduced a series of incentive policies and long-term plans for renewable energy, significantly promoting the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry. Consequently, residential and commercial solar installations in Pakistan have seen a notable increase.

Huasun’s HJT products are manufactured using advanced technology and reliable materials. By optimizing cell technology and encapsulation processes, the company has improved the photoelectric conversion efficiency and reliability of its products. With an impressive temperature coefficient of -0.24%/℃, HJT modules perform exceptionally well in high-temperature environments. Compared to conventional modules, they offer higher power and efficiency, making them a particularly reliable choice for the Pakistani market.

Layne Qiu, Sales Director of MEA & South Asia at Huasun, remarked, “Achieving 100MW shipment milestone to Pakistan is a crucial step for Huasun in the South Asian market. This accomplishment not only highlights the exceptional performance of Huasun’s HJT technology but also underscores the immense market potential of our products. We are confident that in the near future, we will expand our delivery to gigawatt-scale high-efficiency HJT products across South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, significantly advancing the local energy industry’s transformation and sustainable development.”
Riaz Haq said…
Faseeh Mangi
@FaseehMangi
Pakistan’s market for solar power is booming, propelled by a surge in imports from China, according to BloombergNEF.

The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules so far the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters

https://x.com/FaseehMangi/status/1821855549396279766

Solar is gaining traction in the South Asian nation following hikes in power prices over the past few years, with the latest increase in July triggering widespread protests. Pakistan's market for solar power is booming, propelled by a surge in imports from China, according to BloombergNEF.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/pakistan-sees-solar-boom-as-chinese-imports-surge-bnef-says?embedded-checkout=true
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan Sees Solar Boom as Chinese Imports Surge, BNEF Says – BNN Bloomberg


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/pakistan-sees-solar-boom-as-chinese-imports-surge-bnef-says/


(Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s market for solar power is booming, propelled by a surge in imports from China, according to BloombergNEF.The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to a report by BNEF analyst Jenny Chase. Pakistan’s installed capacity to generate power is just 50 gigawatts. China is the world’s biggest producer of solar equipment.Solar is gaining traction in the South Asian nation following hikes in power prices over the past few years, with the latest increase in July triggering widespread protests. Higher rates have seen grid electricity consumption drop to the lowest in four years as many people switch to independent solar. “Pakistan’s market has the potential to continue to be very large,” said Chase. “If solar is solving the market’s power problems, there is no reason to expect a crash any time soon.”BNEF expects that the country will add between 10 gigawatts and 15 gigawatts of solar this year, mostly on homes and factories, making Pakistan the sixth-largest market in the world. Given the surge in imports, that figure could end up being far higher — or growth could stall if the grid situation improves, prices fall, or the market of middle-class people who can afford solar panels on their roofs saturates, according to the report.
There are other complications in accurately assessing the market and its prospects, said Chase. Those include wide discrepancies between official data on installations and imports, as well as claims last year that solar imports were used in money laundering schemes.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan Sees Solar Boom as Chinese Imports Surge, BNEF Says – BNN Bloomberg


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/pakistan-sees-solar-boom-as-chinese-imports-surge-bnef-says/


(Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s market for solar power is booming, propelled by a surge in imports from China, according to BloombergNEF.The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to a report by BNEF analyst Jenny Chase. Pakistan’s installed capacity to generate power is just 50 gigawatts. China is the world’s biggest producer of solar equipment.Solar is gaining traction in the South Asian nation following hikes in power prices over the past few years, with the latest increase in July triggering widespread protests. Higher rates have seen grid electricity consumption drop to the lowest in four years as many people switch to independent solar. “Pakistan’s market has the potential to continue to be very large,” said Chase. “If solar is solving the market’s power problems, there is no reason to expect a crash any time soon.”BNEF expects that the country will add between 10 gigawatts and 15 gigawatts of solar this year, mostly on homes and factories, making Pakistan the sixth-largest market in the world. Given the surge in imports, that figure could end up being far higher — or growth could stall if the grid situation improves, prices fall, or the market of middle-class people who can afford solar panels on their roofs saturates, according to the report.
There are other complications in accurately assessing the market and its prospects, said Chase. Those include wide discrepancies between official data on installations and imports, as well as claims last year that solar imports were used in money laundering schemes.
Riaz Haq said…
China adopted classic cutthroat pricing to shift a record 120,427 megawatts (MW) of solar module capacity exports in the first half of 2024, with Pakistan being Asia's largest single market, accounting for 10,450 MW.

Key to the strong export flow was a steep cut in module prices, which averaged 13.7 cents per megawatt over the first half of 2024, compared to an average of 18 cents/MW for the whole of 2023.

https://mettisglobal.news/pakistan-emerges-as-largest-asian-buyer-in-chinas-record-solar-exports/

The Netherlands remained the top country market for China's modules, taking in 23,421 MW of capacity during the opening half of the year.

Brazil was China's second largest market during the first half of the year, snapping up 10,511 MW of capacity.

Pakistan was the world's third and Asia's largest single market, accounting for 10,450 MW.

Meanwhile, India snapped up 8,324 MW.

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Key Markets

Europe was the top destination for China's solar modules, accounting for 43% of the total, or 52,158 MW.

That total was down 20% from the same period in 2023, as high interest rates, economic growth concerns and trade tensions with China stifled solar installation demand across the continent.

Nonetheless, Europe's purchase total was the second highest tally for a half-year period behind the first half of 2023.

The Netherlands remained the top country market for China's modules, taking in 23,421 MW of capacity during the opening half of the year.

While that total was 25% less than during the opening half of 2023, The Netherlands' purchases were still more than twice the size of any other nation during the first half of the year.

Spain, Germany and Italy were also notable buyers in Europe, but all also showed steep year-on year contractions in purchase volumes, Ember data shows.

Brazil was China's second largest market during the first half of the year, snapping up 10,511 MW of capacity.

That total was up 10% from the same period in 2023, and contrasts with a slight contraction in imports by the Latin American region as a whole during the first half of the year.

Growth Areas

Asia was the second largest regional destination for China's solar parts, accounting for a record 32,109 MW of capacity, or around 27% of the total.

That total was 86% more than during the first half of 2023, and was driven mainly by strong growth in South Asia. Meanwhile, India snapped up 8,324 MW.

Both markets recorded more than 200% jumps in solar imports from the same period in 2023, and represent key growth markets for China in the future.

The Middle East was another key destination for China so far this year, with exports to the region topping 13,000 MW for the first half of the year to account for a record 11% share of China's total solar panel and parts exports.

That compares to 6,228 MW during the first half of 2023, and was driven in large part by strong purchases by Saudi Arabia (7,649 MW), United Arab Emirates (1,892 MW) and Oman (1,396 MW).

Elsewhere, North America remained a tiny market for Chinese panels and parts due to the ongoing trade spat between China and the United States, while Africa's purchases shrank by around 9% from the first half of 2023, and accounted for only 4.3% of China's total sales
Riaz Haq said…
Scatec starts operating 150MW solar projects in Pakistan - PV Tech

Norwegian renewable energy developer Scatec has started commercial operation of 150MW solar PV plants in Pakistan.

The solar PV projects boast an annual generation capacity of 300GWh. Scatec signed a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with the Central Power Purchasing Agency of Pakistan to supply energy in the South Asian country.

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In a first, women engineers set up 24 kW solar system in Pakistan
Five exceptional female engineers, trained at NED University, became first women to participate in the project

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2487267/in-a-first-women-engineers-set-up-24-kw-solar-system-in-pakistan

KARACHI:
Female engineers have successfully installed a 24-kilowatt solar system on the roof of Karachi's Hussaini Orphanage for the first time in Pakistan's history.

With hands-on support from KfW DEG Impuls and Develop, five exceptional Ladies Fund engineers—Areeba Rashid, Iman Batool, Farhan Anjum, Muskan Iqbal, and Rahemeen Haider Ali—completed the installation, becoming the first women in Pakistan’s history to be paid for solar roof work. They are now recognized as official installers for Ladies Fund Energy.

This achievement was part of the Ladies Fund Energy initiative, aimed at empowering female engineers in Pakistan. Certified female engineers trained at NED University completed the installation, which included six lithium batteries, marking the first-ever solar roof installation by women in the country.

The project, led by Dawood Global Foundation (DGF) in partnership with Ladies Fund Energy Pvt. Ltd., was designed to integrate women into the energy sector. The training of 28 female engineers from NED University was supported by KfW and Develop, with the female team taking on roles as both interns and installers to complete the solar installation at the orphanage.

Dr. Mohsin Aman provided internationally recognized "Solar Roof Installation" training at NED University, while Ladies Fund Energy designed a high-quality solar roof specifically for the orphanage. The success of this project was met with overwhelming interest, as 86 female engineers were waitlisted for the course. DGF plans to extend this training to girls from interior Sindh in the next phase.

Tara Azra Dawood, CEO of Ladies Fund Energy, highlighted the initiative’s dual purpose of training and recruiting female engineers for the Ladies Fund, while also positioning them as key players in the broader energy sector. She encouraged greater participation to enhance women’s representation in the field and contribute to a greener Pakistan, expressing gratitude to Hussaini Orphanage for entrusting the female engineers with this important task.

Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab, who attended the ceremony as the chief guest, expressed pride in the dynamic female engineers of Karachi, recognizing them as the pioneering installers of Ladies Fund Energy. He also promised to provide land and funds for training 100 female engineers at NED University through DGF, in collaboration with the government and KMC and granted Ladies Fund Energy the opportunity to pitch their tender for the solarization of KMC buildings.
Riaz Haq said…
Giving A Fair Deal To Distributed Solar In Pakistan

The author is a freelance contributor interested in sustainable energy and power sector policy, planning, and development. He can be reached at: msrahim@hotmail.com

https://thefridaytimes.com/18-Aug-2024/giving-a-fair-deal-to-distributed-solar-in-pakistan


Distributed solar needs a level-playing field to compete with conventional options. Government should provide an enabling legal, regulatory umbrella and an equitable decision-making framework to objectively evaluate every option

For much of its history, the electric supply industry (ESI) in Pakistan has enjoyed the status of being the most stable business and a favourite of investors. This was mainly due to "economies of scale" in generation, extended distances between load centres and good generation sites (especially, hydro), and the benefits that interconnecting isolated systems offered by way of reserve sharing, energy trading, and reliability. Alas, no more!

The advent of small gas-fired combined cycle power plants has ended the golden era of the large, central-station supply systems. Distributed energy generation technologies, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV), have dealt the proverbial death blow to the unchallenged reign of the traditional way of governing the ESI — using a central-station portfolio of mega-sized generation projects and delivering electricity produced by them to loads located far away.

Distributed solar technologies—located behind-the-metre or anywhere else in the distribution system—have been making rapid inroads into power grids across the world. Pakistan is no exception.

Pakistan did show an interest in solar technologies, but this has remained focused on their deployment in the power grid. Though important, it's not the only or even the best avenue for their uptake. The only initiative from the government to promote distributed solar has been its net metering schemeintroduced in 2015. Most other behind-the-metre solar PV systems have not merited any incentive from our governments.

Precise statistics for distributed solar in the country are not available from official sources but a recent report by "pv magazine" terms it "booming" as the import of PV panels saw a rise from 2.8 GigaWatt (GW) in 2022 to 5 GW in 2023 and may reach 12 GW in 2024. By June 2023, the total number of net metering connections had reached 63,703 with a cumulative capacity of 1,505 MW. The annual addition of new consumers to this list was around 1,596, with a cumulative capacity of 221 MW in 2023.
These statistics indicate that the number of net metering connections and their magnitude are still low, but electricity consumers in Pakistan are opting for non-grid interactive systems in rapid strides to reduce their electricity bills which have become unaffordable.

The rigid mindset of power sector functionaries, from top to bottom, is directly responsible for this alarming trend. They have treated consumers as captives to the grid and have used them to dump all the misgovernance costs. They are still not willing to wake up to the new reality that the consumers now have multiple choices. Distributed solar is just one of these and is destined to grow even more if the grid supply remains unreliable and expensive.

Distributed solar offers many benefits. It can avoid investments in the grid and reduce losses, help manage demand, support grid operation, avoid environmental pollution, spur local industrialisation, promote employment, reduce reliance on imported fuels, and enhance national security and sustainability.

Their presence in the grid does pose some technical challenges. In addition to the two-way flow of power, they add to issues like loss of frequency and voltage control, risks of backfeed to the upstream transmission systems, and impair the power quality.

Riaz Haq said…
K-Electric to Double Pakistan's Solar Energy Capacity in Next 2 Years

https://propakistani.pk/2024/08/19/k-electric-to-double-pakistans-solar-energy-capacity-in-next-2-years/

K-Electric Limited plans to add 640 megawatts of clean energy to its portfolio within the next two years which would double Pakistan’s solar energy capacity, reported Bloomberg.

Chief Strategy Officer Shahab Qader Khan said the bidding process for this begins on August 19 (today) and will close next month. The projects will include 200 megawatts of hybrid solar wind generation.

Solar energy makes up just 1 percent of the national energy mix, and K-Electric wants to alleviate some of the prevalent burden of electricity bills on residential consumers by reducing the country’s dependence on expensive fuel imports.

Looking ahead, K-Electric plans to add 1,200 megawatts of renewable energy over the next five years, while scaling back on costly energy sources like liquefied natural gas and fuel oil.

Pakistan currently faces high electricity costs due to heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports. It is pertinent to mention that monthly power bills have surged by 155 percent since 2021 and now exceed rent expenses for many households across the country.
Riaz Haq said…
Solar projects receive lowest-ever tariff bid

Bid of Rs11.2 per unit marks pivotal shift in renewable energy sector

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2489390/solar-projects-receive-lowest-ever-tariff-bid

KARACHI:
In a landmark development, K-Electric's (KE) 150-megawatt solar energy projects in Balochistan have achieved the country's lowest-ever tariff bid, setting a new industry benchmark and marking a pivotal shift in the renewable energy sector.

A bid of Rs11.2 per unit, revealed during a ceremony, underscores the trust in private sector-led initiatives, particularly in the context of Pakistan's ongoing economic challenges. Earlier, Bloomberg News highlighted KE's endeavours to nearly double Pakistan's solar capacity by adding 640MW of clean energy to its portfolio in the next two years.

It was revealed that the bidding process for those projects began in August and would conclude in September 2024. The portfolio, which includes 200MW of hybrid solar-wind generation, is also a critical component of KE's strategy to reduce reliance on expensive fossil fuels and lower the country's overall import bill.

The 640MW of projects, currently in the pipeline, have been divided into three tranches: 150MW solar projects in Balochistan, a 270MW project in Sindh and a 220MW site-neutral project that will be the first hybrid solar and wind energy venture. These projects are expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy.

Pakistan has long been plagued by high electricity prices, driven by its dependence on costly fossil fuel imports. With monthly electricity bills having risen 155% since 2021, often surpassing rent costs for many families, the shift towards more affordable and sustainable energy sources is both urgent and necessary.

Currently, solar energy accounts for just 1% of the energy mix, with a total capacity of 630MW. Doubling this capacity could provide much-needed economic relief to consumers and help stabilise the energy sector.

The recent financial bid opening event in Karachi was attended by representatives from both international and local entities, including JCM Power Group and Hecate Global Renewables from North America, and Pakistani companies such as Atlas Power, Hub Power Holding Co and Sapphire Electric Co.
Riaz Haq said…
Future of Net-Metered Solar Power in Pakistan

https://ieefa.org/resources/future-net-metered-solar-power-pakistan

Pakistan's current Distributed Generation and Net Metering Regulations offer incentives such as high buyback rates, fixed long-term generation licenses, and generous allowances for installed capacity. These have resulted in ideal payback periods, leading to a surge in net-metered rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity across the country.

The current policy offers 2-4 year payback periods for 5-25 kilowatt (kW) net-metered solar PV systems. Power utilities are concerned that higher penetration of distributed solar could place the distribution infrastructure at risk of failure and increase capacity payments on non-net-metered consumers.

The government is considering reducing buyback rates and a shift to net billing from net metering, which could increase payback periods for consumers with a higher self-consumption ratio but may incentivize oversized systems. A net billing scheme would therefore need to limit system size. Despite all policy shifts, the payback periods remain under 5 years

For the government, while maintaining or improving buyback rates can encourage more renewable energy adoption, this must be combined with grid optimization and digitization. For consumers, choosing the right system size for their consumption profile can significantly impact their return on investment.
Riaz Haq said…
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Riaz Haq said…
Rationalizing Incentives for Solar Photovoltaic (PV) in Pakistan

https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/IEEFA%20Fact%20Sheet_Rationalizing%20Incentives%20for%20Solar%20PV%20in%20Pakitan.pdf

The recent surge in rooftop solarization in Pakistan has raised concerns among power distribution companies about
system reliability and increased capacity payments.
The government is considering several changes to current energy policies, including reducing buyback rates,
limiting system sizes, and transitioning from net metering to net billing.
However, even with the proposed changes, the payback period for 5-25 kilowatt (kW) distributed solar PV systems
remains below the 5-year threshold


A mere 50 megawatts (MW) of netmetered solar capacity was added
between 2016 and 2019. However,
consistently high electricity tariffs
and a substantial decline in solar
panel prices have led to a recent
surge in solar PV additions.
Pakistan’s abundant
solar potential offers
specific yields of 3.8
kilowatt-hours per
kilowatt peak (kWh/
kWp) to 6kWh/kWp.
Since 2022, net-metered solar PV
installations have nearly doubled, with
764MW installed in 2023.
In June 2024, Pakistan’s
on-grid net-metered solar PV
capacity was approximately
2200MW.

The recent surge in rooftop solarization in Pakistan has raised concerns among power distribution companies about
system reliability and increased capacity payments.
The government is considering several changes to current energy policies, including reducing buyback rates,
limiting system sizes, and transitioning from net metering to net billing.
However, even with the proposed changes, the payback period for 5-25 kilowatt (kW) distributed solar PV systems
remains below the 5-year threshold



Under the current mechanism, which offers the prevailing National Average Power Purchase Price (NAPPP) of PKR 27 per
kilowatt hour (kWh) as the buyback rate, the relatively higher per kW cost of smaller 5kW and 7.5kW systems results in
extended payback periods ranging between 2.4-4 years. As the system size increases, the payback period decreases, with
a 25kW system recording the shortest payback period of 1.74 years.
• Reducing the buyback rate to the National Average Energy Purchase Price (NAEPP) of PKR 9.69/kWh could lead to a
10%–56% increase in the payback period, depending on the level of consumption and system size. Consumers with smaller
installations and lower consumption experience longer payback periods.
• Reducing the buyback rate to PKR 15/kWh would only result in a 6% increase in the payback period for consumers with
100% self-consumption, while for lower-consumption profiles it may increase by 25%.
• Shifting to a net billing mechanism would increase the payback period for consumers with a higher self-consumption ratio
but could incentivize the installation of oversized systems.
Riaz Haq said…
A solar power policy crisis for Pakistan - Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/a-solar-power-policy-crisis-for-pakistan/

Search Labs | AI Overview
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J3gAAAAASUVORK5CYII=
P3faM9o1AEAa00uUOyK7dUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=
+7
As of August 2024, Pakistan's net metering regulations allow excess energy from solar systems to be sold back to the grid at the National Average Power Purchase Price (NAPPP). This price reflects the average cost per unit of power that the DISCOs purchase.
In June 2024, some speculated that the government might introduce changes to the solar panel policy, including a shift from net metering to a gross metering system. However, the Federal Minister for the power division, Ahmed Khan Lagari, has denied these changes and assured the public that the existing net metering system will remain in place.
A bidirectional meter, which measures both the electricity generated and consumed, can help consumers reduce their reliance on expensive grid electricity. This system can also make solar investments financially viable, promote energy independence, and reduce the strain on the national grid.

----------------

Optimizing solar incentives and grid infrastructure in Pakistan can benefit power distribution companies and energy consumers | IEEFA

https://ieefa.org/articles/optimizing-solar-incentives-and-grid-infrastructure-pakistan-can-benefit-power

The regulations created the framework for the successful adoption of distributed renewable energy in the country, with approximately 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of net-metered rooftop solar PV capacity connected to the grid by June 2024.
Riaz Haq said…
Budget 2024-25: Production of solar panels, inverters and batteries becomes cheaper - Must Read - Aaj English TV

https://english.aaj.tv/news/330365159/budget-2024-25-production-of-solar-panels-inverters-and-batteries-becomes-cheaper

According to the finance bill, the government has eliminated all taxes on machinery and equipment used in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, most of these were subjected to taxes ranging from 5% to 20%.

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Pakistan’s energy system strained by surge in solarization, battery tech

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1215486-pakistan-s-energy-system-strained-by-surge-in-solarization-battery-tech

ISLAMABAD: The rapid solarization and advancements in battery technology are increasingly challenging Pakistan’s existing energy system.

The influx of over 7,000 megawatts of imported capacity, coupled with some industrialists and bulk consumers installing in-house plants of up to 1.5 megawatts, threatens to disrupt long-term agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

This situation is exacerbated by mounting frustration among power consumers, who are being burdened with substantial multi-billion-rupee capacity charges on their monthly bills.

The provincial governments, especially Punjab and Sindh’s distribution of solar panels to the public, will further pressurise the system, as they will now be drawing less from the grid and so the burden of capacity charges will increase and ultimately the tariff, which will further take away consumers from the grid power.

“Various bulk consumers have done aggressive solarization, even they installed capacity of up to 1.5 megawatts and have kept the grid at backup,” Chairman Nepra Waseem Mukhtar said while presiding over a public hearing on Wednesday adding, “It’s [solarization] a threat.”

The Nepra chairman said that this 7,000 MW imported solar capacity is not for only rooftops, bulk consumers are also installing their big capacities. He also tasked the CPPA with conducting a study on solar energy usage, mapping and submitting a report to Nepra.

Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) while pleading the case on behalf of Discos reported that electricity consumption in June 2024 was 10 percent lower than the reference period consumption, while two percent less than last year.

Waseem Mukhtar said that the government has launched a study to determine if Pakistan requires additional power generation capacity. He emphasized the need for a logical approach to adding more electricity to the national grid. The study is also evaluating that Commercial Operating Dates (CoDs) for some plants may be postponed, he said, mentioning that the study will determine which plants can be retired early.
Riaz Haq said…
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Riaz Haq said…
Electricity Tariff for Pakistan Residential Consumers- July 2024

https://arynews.tv/electricity-tariff-for-pakistan-residential-consumers-july-2024/

ISLAMABAD: The federal cabinet approved significant increase in the electricity tariff for residential consumers using 100 to 500 units per month, ARY news reported.

According to the details, the new basic tariff is fixed at Rs 48.84 per unit, which will increase to Rs 57.63 per unit after sales tax. With adjustments and other taxes, the maximum electricity tariff will exceed Rs 65 per unit.

As per the decision taken by the federal cabinet, the monthly tariff for consumers using 1 to 100 units is proposed to Rs 23.59, while those using 101 to 200 units will have to pay Rs 30.07 per unit.

Similarly, the tariff for those consumers using 201 to 300 units will increase to Rs 34.26, and those using 301 to 400 units will have to pay Rs 39.15 per unit.

The consumers using 401 to 500 units will be charged the most as they will have to pay Rs 41.36 per unit

Pakistan’s power sector caused a Rs403 billion loss in FY2022-23, revealed the National Electronic Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) report earlier.

The progress report of the power distribution companies including K-Electric was released by the NEPRA, indicating nine distribution companies including K-Electric failed to achieve 100pc recovery.

The line losses and low recoveries caused a loss of Rs403 bln to the national kitty, the report said. The report highlighted that the companies did not buy the electricity as per the assigned quota.

The companies carrying out loadshedding ‘deliberately’ as they are not buying electricity as per their quotas, the report said.
Riaz Haq said…
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-energy-market


https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-energy-market#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20International%20Renewable,the%20percentage%20of%20solar%20energy.

Pakistan Solar Energy Market Analysis

The Pakistan Solar Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 1.41 gigawatt in 2024 to 9.53 gigawatt by 2029, at a CAGR of 46.55% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
Over the medium term, increasing adoption of solar PV systems, the declining price of solar panels and installation costs, and rising environmental concerns about the use of fossil fuels are the factors driving the market's growth.
On the other hand, the market is expected to be hampered by issues like transmission and distribution losses, a need for a solidified renewable energy policy, and unpredictability in the continuity of power supply.
However, Pakistan has abundant solar irradiance and receives solar energy almost yearly. This factor presents a phenomenal opportunity to exploit solar energy from the most irradiated sites in the country, combined with foreign investments. Additionally, the off-grid supply through micro- and mini-grids to electrify rural communities of the country and the integration of renewable energy sources in generation, transmission, and distribution systems are some factors expected to create opportunities for the market in the future.





Pakistan Solar Energy Market Trends


The Utility Sector is Expected to Dominate the Market



Solar energy converts energy from sunlight into electricity directly using photovoltaics (PV) or indirectly using concentrated solar power.
Due to the falling cost of solar modules and the number of upcoming projects, the utility sector will likely be the most significant part of the Pakistani solar energy market over the next few years.
The Pakistani government has established lofty objectives, such as 30% of the nation's power coming from renewable sources by 2030. Through the Alternative Energy Development Board, the government is attempting to construct solar power facilities nationwide to meet these objectives.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy.
In December 2023, Orient Energy Systems and JA Solar announced they completed Pakistan's first n-type utility-scale photovoltaic power plant project. The project adopts JA Solar's n-type high-efficiency modules, which have a capacity of 26 megawatts. It is installed on the premises of Lucky Cement plant, Pakistan's largest cement manufacturer.
In March 2024, Hanersun Technologies agreed with My Energy, a local company, to construct a 500MW solar system in the country. The project is expected to have an investment of around USD 700 million.
Hence, with government support, these projects are expected to make the utility sector the dominant force in Pakistan's solar energy industry in the coming years. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-energy-market
Riaz Haq said…
In Pakistan, the residential sector is the largest consumer of electricity, followed by the industrial sector:
Residential: The largest consumer of electricity, accounting for 47% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022. The average household consumes 2,469 kWh per year.
Industrial: Consumed 28% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Commercial: Consumed 7% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Agricultural: Consumed 9% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Other sectors: Consumed 8% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
Pakistan's electricity is mainly generated by fossil fuel-based thermal power plants, which account for 62% of the total electricity generation. Hydroelectric power plants account for 26% of the total annual electricity.

https://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_24/14_energy.pdf

https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/11/11/566#:~:text=Pakistan%20is%20among%20those%20countries,7%5D%20(Figure%201).
Riaz Haq said…
Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Power Generation drops 17.4% YoY in Aug'24

(Grid) Power generation declined by 17.4% YoY to arrive at 13,179 GWh (17,714 MW) during Aug'24, compared to 15,959 GWh (21,450MW) during SPLY. Moreover, on a MoM basis, power generation witnessed a dip of 11.4%. For 2MFY25, power generation fell by 8.9% YoY to 28,059 GWh (18,857 MW) compared to 30,798 GWh (20,697 MW) in the SPLY.

During Aug’24, the actual power generation was 13.1% lower than the reference generation. This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 2QFY25 QTA.

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1836714300620337340

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Chinese solar panel boom threatens Pakistan’s debt-ridden grid

https://www.ft.com/content/69e4cb33-3615-4424-996d-5aee9d1afe19

Businesses in Pakistan are racing to cover their factory rooftops with ultra-cheap Chinese solar panels, after a surge in electricity prices that has made the state-owned power supply among the most expensive in South Asia. “Every bit of space I have, even if it’s a few feet, I want it covered in solar panels,” said Khawaja Masood Akhtar, chief executive of Forward Sports, whose factory near the Indian border is one of the world’s largest makers of footballs and a rare example of a successful export business. His company had already doubled the level of solar in its energy mix to 50 per cent over the past two years, in response to pressure to go green from Adidas, which contracts Forward to churn out millions of balls each year.



Akhtar is now ploughing a chunk of last year’s profits into importing another haul of panels from China to lift the share of solar supply to his operations to 80 per cent by next April, to blunt the impact of soaring tariffs for state-provided power. “It’s the only way we can beat our competitors” in China and India, he said. “Allah has given us this gift to get out of this mess.” China is also involved on the other side of the “mess”. In order to put an end to widespread electricity shortages a decade ago, the Pakistani government drew in billions of dollars from Chinese and other lenders to its power sector with promises of sovereign-backed, dollar-indexed returns and commitments to pay for even unused electricity. Financing mostly flowed to the coal-fired plants, and power tariffs in Pakistan have more than doubled over the past three years alone, as the cash-strapped government scaled back subsidies and passed the capacity payments made to power producers on to consumers. In response, moneyed Pakistanis have capitalised on the country’s punishingly harsh sunlight by importing some $1.4bn worth of Chinese solar panels in the first half of this year, making it the third-largest national destination in the world, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF. Shimmering blue panels now sit atop a vast array of factories, high-end households, hospitals and mosques.




Irteza Ubaid, chief operating officer of Shams Power, a Lahore-based importer, said that multinational companies in Pakistan, including Coca-Cola, Mondelez and Hyundai, are gobbling up the panels he imports from China, as they chase savings of up to 70 per cent on their electricity bills. The federal government sees the switch to solar as being in the country’s environmental interests, as climate change has brought more extreme weather, including deadly heatwaves and floods, which caused the deaths of more than 1,500 in 2022.




But the mass adoption of solar panels also risked making the power provided by the Pakistani grid “unaffordable”, Awais Leghari, the energy minister, told the Financial Times. “Demand is shrinking off the grid. That’s a big concern for us.” Earlier this year, the ministry complained that “solarisation has grown too fast”, as a result of a policy to buy some excess solar power from households and industry at above-market prices. A remaining estimated 30mn low-income consumers who cannot afford the new solar panels or lack the rooftop space now face rocketing prices for the state-owned power supply.
Riaz Haq said…
World Bank approves $1 billion additional financing for Dasu hydropower project

https://www.hydroreview.com/business-finance/finance/world-bank-approves-1-billion-additional-financing-for-dasu-hydropower-project/

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved $1 billion in a second round of additional financing for the Dasu Hydropower Stage I (DHP I) Project.

This financing will support the expansion of hydropower supply, improve access to socio-economic services for local communities, and build the Water and Power Development Authority’s (WAPDA) capacity to prepare future hydropower projects, the World Bank said.

“Pakistan’s energy sector suffers from multiple challenges to achieving affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank country director for Pakistan. “The Dasu Hydropower Project site is one of the best hydropower sites in the world and is a game changer for the Pakistan energy sector. With a very small footprint, the DHP will contribute to ‘greening’ the energy sector and lowering the cost of electricity.”

DHP is a run-of-river project on the Indus River about 8 km from Dasu Town, the capital of the Upper Kohistan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Upon completion, it will have an installed capacity of 4,320 MW to 5,400 MW. The project is being built in stages. DHP-I has a capacity of 2,160 MW and will generate 12,225 GWh/year of low-cost renewable energy. DHP-II will add 9,260 GWh to 11,400 GWh/year from the same dam.

“DHP-I is an essential project in Pakistan’s efforts to reverse its dependence on fossil fuels and reach 60 percent renewable energy by 2031.” said Rikard Liden, task team leader for the project. “The second additional financing will facilitate the expansion of electricity supply and potentially save Pakistan an estimated $1.8 billion annually by replacing imported fuels and offset around 5 million tons of carbon dioxide. The annual economic return of DHP-I is estimated to be around 28 percent.”

The additional financing will further support ongoing socio-economic initiatives in Upper Kohistan, particularly in the areas of education, health, employment and transport. The project will also continue ongoing community development activities on roads, irrigation schemes, schools, medical facilities, mosques, bridges, solar energy systems, and science laboratories and libraries, all with a particular focus on women beneficiaries, including the establishment of free healthcare clinics/camps with women doctors/nurses, training for female health workers, training on livelihoods and literacy for women, and awareness-raising programs on health and hygiene.

Pakistan has been a member of the World Bank since 1950. Since then, the World Bank has provided over $46 billion in assistance. The current portfolio has 55 projects and a total commitment of $14.7 billion, according to a release.
Riaz Haq said…
JCM Power wins 240 MW hybrid PV-wind project in Pakistan with $0.031/kWh bid

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/09/25/jcm-power-wins-240-mw-hybrid-pv-wind-project-in-pakistan-with-0-031-kwh-bid/

JCM Power has won a 240 MW hybrid wind-solar project in Pakistan with a bid of $0.031/kWh. The facility will be located in Dhabeji, near Karachi, and will supply power to local utility K-Electric.

Canada's JCM Power has said that it will build a 240 MW (AC) hybrid wind-solar project in Dhabeji, near Karachi, Pakistan.

The company secured the project through a procurement exercise held by utility K-Electric. It submitted a bid of PKR 8.9189 ($0.031)/kWh. The tender was held with the supervision of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).

JCM Power said it will partner with Pakistan-based Burj Capital and Gharo Solar Limited in the development and construction of the facility.

The project has been described as the largest renewable energy facility to be included in K-Electric's network to date. It will be linked to a 220 kV grid station operated by the private utility.

Pakistan’s cumulative installed solar capacity stood at 1.2 GW at the end of 2023, according to figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan Is Only the Beginning of the Cheap Solar Revolution

By Ryan Cooper, managing editor at The American Prospect, and author of the book "How Are You Going to Pay for That?: Smart Answers to the Dumbest Question in Politics."

No need for expensive imported fuel when your energy is coming from the sun.

https://heatmap.news/economy/pakistan-solar

Pakistan imported a whopping 13 gigawatts of solar panels, mostly from China, in just the first half of 2024, mostly for rooftop installations for homes and businesses. That’s a mind-boggling amount of new solar for a country that only had about 50 gigawatts of installed generation capacity in total in 2023.
----------

Fuel imports are one of the largest expenses for even prosperous countries. For places like Pakistan, they are a punishing economic drain. Paying for vast amounts of imported coal, gas, and oil in scarce foreign currency is hard enough in good times, but it’s disastrous when one’s currency has depreciated by about 40% over two years.

Dirt cheap solar power could ameliorate or solve many of these problems at a stroke. Panels are now so cheap, even Pakistan can afford to import them by the millions — an expense, yes, but a one-time one. And while solar is inherently intermittent, and therefore not a solution to Pakistan’s reliability problems, batteries are also plummeting in price — down about 90% between 2010 and 2023 — and can help balance out supply. Cheaper batteries also mean cheaper EVs, with (as usual) Chinese models coming out at bewilderingly low prices. And because Pakistanis mostly drive motorcycles (often manufactured domestically) over relatively short distances, electrifying the personal vehicle fleet there will be far cheaper than in America or Europe; vastly smaller batteries require vastly simpler charging infrastructure.

If all goes well, this will free up vast amounts of economic capacity for Pakistan to invest in domestic development. Businesses will have stable, reliable power supplies that will justify more investment. Households will be able to upgrade their insulation, install heat pumps, and generally spend more on things other than energy. The government will be able to upgrade legacy transmission lines to accommodate solar production from the remaining hydro and nuclear plants.

Finally, of course, there is the climate benefit. Pakistan is one of the countries most threatened by climate change. Summer heat waves are bad and getting worse, to the point where murderous wet bulb events are increasingly likely. Catastrophic warming-fueled storms in 2022 caused the worst flooding in the country’s history, inundating about a third of Pakistan’s land area, killing nearly 2,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damages.

In short, a path to economic development will be opened. It is by no means guaranteed, but it will be a heck of a lot easier than trying to dig out from under the debt mountain of the collapsing coal-powered system. Look around the developing world and you’ll find there are a great many nations in similar situations.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan emerged as second-largest market for Chinese photovoltaic products | REVE News of the wind sector in Spain and in the world


https://www.evwind.es/2024/10/02/pakistan-emerged-as-second-largest-market-for-chinese-photovoltaic-products/101434

Pakistan has emerged as a significant new market for Chinese photovoltaic (PV) companies, aligning with its path toward energy transformation.

According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), in the first half of 2024, Asia overtook Europe as the largest export destination for PV products and Pakistan has become the second-largest market for module exports after Europe.

During the same period, China exported inverters worth a total of RMB 1.714 billion to Pakistan. In August alone, the total value of inverter exports to Pakistan reached 326 million yuan, showing a year-on-year surge of 429.04%. And shimmering blue panels now sit atop a vast array of factories, households, hospitals and mosques.

The surge in exports of photovoltaics and supporting products reflects the urgency of turning to new energy power generation in Pakistan, China Economic Net reported on Tuesday.

“Electricity prices continue to rise; thus, people are trying to find their own way out,” Abbas a Pakistani trader said at the Investment and Trade Forum for Cooperation between East and West China.

As of June 2023, the installed capacity of solar power in Pakistan stood at 630 megawatts, namely 1.4% of the overall installed power capacity, which has a huge room for improvement.

In terms of natural conditions, according to the World Bank’s Global Solar Atlas data, taking Balochistan with good lighting conditions as an example, the average annual total photovoltaic output power of a 1KW household photovoltaic system can reach 1990kWh (corresponding to approximately 1990h of sunlight), which is approximately 41% and 59% higher than New Delhi, India and Shandong Province, China, respectively; the Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) can reach 2536.5KWh/square meter, which is approximately 36% and 61% higher than New Delhi, India and Shandong Province, China respectively.

In terms of policies, for the past few years, the Pakistani government has highly supported the development of renewable energy, setting a strategic goal of increasing the share of renewable energy and alternative energy in Pakistan’s electricity market to 20% by 2025 and to 30% by 2030.

The IGCEP2047 released by NEPRA showed that Pakistan’s PV installed capacity will achieve leapfrog growth in the next few years. It is expected that by 2030, the PV installed capacity will reach 12.8GW, and by 2047 it is expected to reach 26.9GW. According to calculations, in order to achieve the 2030/2047 goals, the average annual new PV installed capacity needs to reach 1.65/1.07GW respectively.

Businesses in Pakistan are racing to cover their factory rooftops with reasonably priced Chinese solar panels. “Every bit of space I have, even if it’s a few feet, I want it covered in solar panels,” said Khawaja Masood Akhtar, chief executive of Forward Sports, whose factory is one of the world’s largest makers of footballs. His company had already doubled the level of solar in its energy mix to 50% over the past two years. Akhtar is now ploughing a chunk of last year’s profits into importing another haul of panels from China to lift the share of solar supply to his operations to 80% by next April.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan's farmers feel the (solar) power | UNIDO

https://www.unido.org/stories/pakistans-farmers-feel-solar-power

In the photo (above), a smallholder farmer from Bhagwela, Rahim Yar Khan, in Punjab province, inspects her solar tube well, a type of water pumping system that utilizes solar energy to bring up water from underground sources, such as wells or boreholes. It is an eco-friendly and cost-effective alternative to the diesel or mains electricity-powered pumps commonly used in agricultural irrigation.

With the solar-powered tube well irrigating her farmland, the farmer has cut costs and improved her crop yields. She is one of the nearly 500 women and men engaged in farming and running small enterprises in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh who UNIDO has helped apply renewable energy solutions for productive uses. The National Rural Support Programme (NRSP), a leading microfinance and development organization in Pakistan, provides loans for the procurement and installation of renewable energy solutions, and UNIDO covers the interest payments so that the loans are interest-free.

Another farmer, Kaneez Fatima, from the Sargodha district in Punjab, expressed her thanks. "I own a small piece of land, and access to water and electricity is always a problem. I received UNIDO's assistance through the NRSP - an interest-free loan to purchase a 2KW solar panel to run a tube well to irrigate my land. The installation process was extremely smooth, according to the land irrigation needs and water level."

The electricity costs for beneficiaries have drastically dipped. A post-installation impact survey conducted by the NRSP found that 80% of respondents reported savings of of up to 15,000 Pakistani rupees (around €50) a month, with the other 20% saving even more.

Small farmers and entrepreneurs have been suffering from fuel price hikes in recent times. Agriculture and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the mainstays of Pakistan's economy, providing jobs for around two-thirds of the population.

Rashid Bajwa, CEO of the NRSP, laments the impact of the enegy crisis on the economy. "The majority of our population generates income that is barely enough to meet their needs and the situation is getting worse," says Bajwa. "We need to adapt and improvise, and alternative or green energy just might be the solution that will enable our SME sector to sustain and grow."

The farms and businesses supported by UNIDO have not only reduced costs by switching from diesel, they are also helping save the climate. With a capacity to produce 1,825 MWh of clean energy a year, the project beneficiaries will be able to avoid more than 800 metric tons of CO2 emissions annually.

Shah Jahan Mirza, Managing Director of the government agency, the Private Power and Infrastructure Board, commended UNIDO for introducing renewable energy technogology to smallholder farmers and small enterprises in Punjab and Sindh provinces. "These rural communities generally don't have funding to finance these systems. There are also doubts and misconceptions about these technologies, i.e. they are not reliable and very costly, or may not help. Providing interest-free loans is a breakthrough. UNIDO has taken a lead in this which will go a long way, as the people have now started using this technology. "

The UNIDO initiative is part of a bigger project, Sustainable Energy Initiative for Industries in Pakistan, funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Collaborating with public and private partners, UNIDO has facilitated investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy in 50 industrial units. In addition, UNIDO has placed significant emphasis on capacity building, and has trained more than 625 professionals, including 30 women, in energy management systems and energy optimization.

The project has yielded significant results, implementing more than 12MW of renewable energy projects in the industrial sector, and thereby reducing over 17,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan ends power deals to save $1.48 billion, cut tariffs | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-biggest-private-utility-says-govt-power-deal-ends-prematurely-2024-10-10/

Government to save 411 billion rupees
Negotiations with more power producers underway
IMF bailout talks influenced decision to revisit power deals

KARACHI, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Pakistan's government has ended power purchase contracts with five private companies, including one with the country's largest utility that should have been in place until 2027, to cut costs, officials said on Thursday.
The news confirms comment from Power Minister Awais Leghari to Reuters last month that the government was re-negotiating deals with independent power producers to lower electricity tariffs as households and businesses struggle to manage soaring energy costs.
"We studied these agreements and we decided what plants we need and what plants we don't need," Leghari told a news conference in Islamabad on Thursday, adding the termination of the take or pay agreements will save the nation nearly 411 billion rupees ($1.48 billion) in the coming years.
Take or pay is referred to as capacity payments in Pakistan where the government has to pay private companies irrespective of how much of the power they generate is transferred to its grid.

Negotiations have also begun with other power producers to revise their contracts, Leghari said, adding people would soon see the impact in their monthly bills.
"Our aim is to bring the tariff down," he said.
The need to revisit the deals was an issue in talks for a critical staff-level pact in July with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $7-billion bailout.
Earlier on Thursday Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Pakistan has agreed with five independent power producers to revisit purchase contracts. He said that would save the country 60 billion rupees a year.

Pakistan's biggest private utility, Hub Power Company Ltd (HPWR.PSX), opens new tab, also said the company agreed to prematurely end a contract with the government to buy power from a southwestern generation project.
In a note to the Pakistan Stock Exchange, it said the government had agreed to meet its commitments up to Oct. 1, instead of an initial date of March 2027, in an action taken "in the greater national interest".
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan to reform power distribution after IMF meetings, minister says
Owais Rawda explores what the most recent request for IMF climate funding means for power sector reform.

https://www.power-technology.com/comment/pakistan-to-reform-power-distribution-after-imf-meetings-minister-says/

At last week’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meetings, Pakistan’s finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb requested $1bn in funding from the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) to help mitigate the country’s climate risks and accelerate its energy transition. Established in 2022, the RST offers vulnerable low- and middle-income countries long-term concessional cash for climate-related spending.

Pakistan’s power sector circular debt, driven by inefficiencies in the power distribution network, crossed Rs2.66tn ($9.5bn) in May, according to a debt report released by the government’s power division. Meanwhile, citizens have suffered significant and frequent power outages in recent years, leaving millions without electricity.

The government’s faulty capacity payment contracts with independent power producers (IPPs) have come to light as the primary source of these challenges. Interest rates borne from private IPPs have not only worsened the debt crisis but spiked consumer tariffs, making electricity unaffordable.

In light of Aurangzeb’s request, coupled with multiple IPPs terminating their contracts with the government, the South Asian nation is now likely to announce significant reforms.

“These IPP payments had a detrimental effect on the overall quality of life for our citizens,” Awais Laghari, Pakistan’s minister for energy’s power division, tells Power Technology. “It is imperative that necessary steps are taken to resolve the issue.”

Without specifying the plans, he claims that the power division is currently evaluating options “through which the fiscal burden shared by the consumer, whether through taxes or debt repayments, can be optimised through various interventions that improves household economics and consumption at the same time”.

Laghari says that there are also plans to “unbundle electricity” and create a competitive market for energy, citing the recent introduction of an independent system and market operator (ISMO) as a step in this direction.

“This will ensure that a B2B [business-to-business] market for electricity can develop, which can eventually evolve into a B2B2C [business-to-business-to-consumer] market thereby providing greater options for consumers and lower prices through a competitive process,” he says.

The minister adds that the role of renewables in reforming the country’s power market will be imperative, “given their price advantage”. He believes that their ability to generate cheap electricity will “always put them ahead in any competitive market regime, making them critical to the success of the market.”

Following the IMF meetings, Laghari says that the government plans to “move forward actively” with the privatisation of electricity distribution companies and that “necessary improvements in governance are already underway”.

He believes that privatisation can enhance the efficiency of these companies, allowing them to remain a key player in the power market, which in turn will result in more affordable prices for consumers.

“Similarly, we continue to focus on investment in transmission to remove constraints so that lower cost electricity generated in the South can be moved across the country and overall consumer tariff can be reduced.”

About the author: Owais Rawda is a regulatory policy researcher that has written about the energy and technology industries.
Riaz Haq said…
Is distributed solar energy a game-changer for emerging economies? | World Economic Forum

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/10/distributed-solar-energy-emerging-economies/

Distributed solar energy and other green tech, is helping to transform energy from a commodity to a technology, enabling energy-independence in emerging economies like Pakistan.
Solar energy boosts economic growth by offering affordable energy, driving business expansion and increasing job opportunities.
Solar energy fosters greater energy autonomy, reduces political dependence on centralized systems, improves governance and contributes to lower carbon emissions.
Under the scorching sun in Lahore, Pakistan, the hum of factory machinery persists uninterrupted. Just a year ago, frequent power outages would have stopped production. Today, a collection of solar panels on its roof keeps everything running. This scene is one of thousands happening across buildings in Pakistan, marking a quiet but powerful shift in how emerging economies power their growth.

At Exponential View, we identify distributed solar energy as a key factor for the future, offering cheaper and more accessible electricity. As our research suggests, this grassroots transformation has the potential to redefine economic opportunities and provide energy independence for millions in developing nations, reshaping their futures.

Solar is changing energy from a commodity, like fossil fuels, to a technology, bringing two key benefits. First, as solar technology improves, its cost continues to drop. Between 2010 and 2023, the price of solar energy has fallen by 33.4% every time production has doubled. In contrast, fossil fuel prices are controlled by global markets and politics.

Second, solar panels let people generate power locally, giving them more control over their energy. Unlike fossil fuels, which depend on expensive, unstable grids and resources from other regions, solar power allows individuals to become more energy-independent.

As batteries become cheaper, this independence will grow and energy generation could become increasingly decentralized. Emerging economies are leading this transformation and Pakistan is one of the clearest examples this year.

Pakistan’s solar boom
Pakistan is now the third-largest importer of Chinese solar panels, buying an incredible 13 gigawatts (GW) in just the first half of this year. To compare, the United Kingdom is expected to add only 1.5-2GW of solar capacity this year and the United States added 32GW in 2023. This likely makes Pakistan the sixth-largest installer of solar panels in 2024 but locally, the impact is even bigger.

In six months, Pakistan imported solar capacity equal to 30% of its total power capacity, which was 46GW in 2023.

However, Pakistan’s regulator, NEPRA, only tracks grid-connected or officially registered installations. Geospatial data shows solar panels spreading across factories, homes and even government buildings, pointing to an under-the-radar revolution in energy production.
Riaz Haq said…
Surprise Solar Boom in Pakistan Helps Millions, But Harms Grid
There’s a shiny new addition to Pakistan’s dusty agricultural heartland: rows upon rows of solar panels.



Bloomberg News

Fasih Mangi



https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/surprise-solar-boom-in-pakistan-helps-millions-but-harms-grid#:~:text=The%20flood%20of%20solar%20panels,cities%20and%20during%20cricket%20matches.



The flood of solar panels from China started in 2023, and turned into a deluge after Pakistan removed import curbs late last year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese panels, according to BNEF. Now they’re being advertised on billboards in major cities and during cricket matches.

The frenzy wasn’t restricted to the energy sector: real estate companies and electronics firms started flipping panels, with the biggest traders bringing in up to 250 megawatts’ worth every month, according to Usman Ahmad, chief executive officer at solar distributor Nizam Energy Pvt.

Driving the demand were households and factories producing everything from cement to apparel, who have suffered frequent blackouts in the past due to the unreliable grid.

Speculation that the grid will collapse is “extreme,” but the reduction in demand is indeed a concern, Pakistan’s Power Minister Awais Leghari said in an interview. Utilities “have to be a little more sensitive to the demands of customers in terms of reliability and tariffs,” he said. “We all realize that the status quo can’t prevail.”



For Murtaza, the decision to switch to solar on his farm near Lahore was an easy one. It will take him less than a year to recover the cost of installing the panels, and his electricity bill has plunged by 80%, he said. With the savings, he’s able to plant three crops a year instead of two.

“I have never seen such a big change in farming. Ninety-five percent of farmland has switched to solar in this area,” he said, pointing to his photovoltaic array towering over piles of harvested corn cobs. The panels are now cheaper than the frames they’re supposed to be mounted on, so some farmers just lay them on the ground, he said.

Despite the hubbub, it’s hard to tell how much of the imported equipment has actually been installed due to a paucity of official data. A satellite data analysis carried out in April by Norwegian firm Atlas revealed around 400 solar plants across the country, clustered mostly in industrial hubs. But many more installations went undetected, the geospatial analysis firm said. Most panels have been deployed almost equally across homes, factories, and farms, solar distributors say.



The growth of solar in Pakistan has been interesting because it happened so fast and without any subsidies, said Jenny Chase, an analyst at BNEF. However, the boom is likely to be followed by a bust, she said.

For Pakistan’s government, dealing with the consequences of the solar frenzy and its aftermath, and maintaining the health of the grid and traditional power companies will be essential. For the country’s economy and the millions of people who can’t afford to install solar panels, a failing electricity network would be disastrous.

“The solar onslaught is happening in a very unsafe, very unregulated way,” said Amin Sukhera, chief executive officer of Sky Electric, a Pakistani solar firm. “The people who are running the grid, they do not know what kind of imbalance it’s creating when other people attach solar connections. I think it’s already a pretty sick grid. I fear it may get more sick.”
Riaz Haq said…
The hidden solar revolution that stumped experts – DW – 11/22/2024

https://youtu.be/LT5UdLGy8fM

https://www.dw.com/en/deep-dive-the-hidden-solar-revolution-that-stumped-experts/audio-70856809

A little while back, energy analysts noticed something weird in the data they were combing through.

Pakistan’s national electricity grid data that is. There seemed to be a huge drop in demand for electricity. A drop of 10 percent since 2022. For a rapidly growing country of 250 million people, where the economy has also grown by 2 percent in the past two years, that just didn’t seem right.

Dave Jones: You just wouldn't expect that of an emerging country.

Dave Jones is one such energy analyst who was pretty puzzled by this trend.

Dave Jones: I work at a research organization called EMBER and I track the global electricity transition, heading up our global insights team and I'm based near London in the UK.

Dave and his team realized that just looking at Pakistan’s national grid data wasn’t going to give them all the answers. Because the electricity was coming from somewhere else.

It was coming from rooftops. Rooftops like Shafqat’s. And that kind of solar electricity generation wasn’t being captured in national statistics. It wasn’t really being recorded anywhere.

Dave Jones: And we heard stories about a lot of solar being deployed. So that's when we thought, right, there's probably a hole in the solar data here.

So, first things first, when you’ve got a hunch it could be solar, but there aren’t many hard datasets around, head to Google Earth to see for yourself.

Dave Jones: Oh my God, I had a lot of fun going through Google Earth! It was really hypnotizing just floating around and being able to see all of these solar panels from the satellite images that they have. And it's not on one or two houses in certain areas, like whichever urban area you went to, whether it was a house or block of flats or whether it was a factory or government building, you could see those solar panels on the image everywhere.

I had a look too, and Dave’s right, float over Islamabad Larkana, Lahore... and you’ll see the unmistakable little checkered grids atop homes, businesses, buildings big and small, left, right and center.

Dave Jones: It was unbelievable. Just the amount of solar panels on so many buildings spread throughout the whole of the country.

But how to find out just how much solar had made its way to Pakistan?

Dave Jones: Tracking how solar is developing and being deployed in different parts of the world is extraordinarily hard. A lot of the government stats are really delayed or even non-existent.

The renewable shift is happening so rapidly and, sometimes, randomly, most governments can’t track how much power is coming from where quickly enough to crunch official statistics.

There is one country with a very useful, up-to-date dataset though.

And that is China. The world’s number one manufacturer of solar PV modules.

Dave Jones: We also track the Chinese export agency data, which tags the solar panel exports for every country in the world up to the latest month. So really up to date data for over 100 countries across the world, and specifically in the case of Pakistan, it revealed that Pakistan was the sixth biggest installer of solar panels across the world. Which is quite a surprise!

The sixth biggest installer of solar panels in the world in 2024. That’s behind much bigger, much richer economies like China, the US, Germany, India and Brazil. And, obviously, ahead of nearly 190 other countries. That is huge news for Pakistan.

And the reason that can even happen of course is because of the incredible drop in the price of solar technology.

Dave Jones: It's come to that point now that for daytime electricity, it is a no brainer for people in Pakistan to go out there and to be doing this on the scale that they're doing it.

The price of solar PV modules has plummeted by 90% in the last 15 years alone.
Riaz Haq said…
Optimizing Pakistan's economy by renegotiating power purchase agreements
December 05, 2024
Haneea Isaad

https://ieefa.org/resources/optimizing-pakistans-economy-renegotiating-power-purchase-agreements

Developing countries in Asia and Africa, riddled with excess capacity payments and a surplus of generation capacity, are using contract renegotiation to lower their economic burden and conserve the foreign exchange. In Pakistan, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have allegedly made excessive profits by under-reporting efficiency gains and over-invoicing, thus necessitating complex power purchase agreement (PPA) renegotiations. Contracts with five IPPs have already been terminated, while 18 others face a possible conversion to a take-and-pay basis.

Renegotiations require both parties to offer concessions to arrive at a deal. For the five IPPs with terminated contracts, two publicly listed companies may have waived some receivables while taking the government’s offered settlement. Lalpir Power Plant, a 362 megawatts (MW) furnace oil-based plant located in Muzaffargarh, took a haircut of PKR7 billion. HubCo’s 1292MW furnace oil-based power plant was offered PKR36.5 billion in compensation, almost PKR20 billion less than the total company valuation as of June 2024.

Renegotiation of concession agreements is not an unusual practice in the power sector, especially under destabilizing economic conditions such as macroeconomic shocks. Ghana, like Pakistan, has struggled with energy sector reforms prompted by rising power sector debt and unpaid dues. The country recently underwent a similar situation, successfully renegotiating contracts with five IPPs, including debt structuring and conversion to a take-and-pay system.

The government in Pakistan has attempted PPA renegotiations in 1998, 2012, 2020, and now in 2024. IPPs allege that repeated contract renegotiations and coercive tactics will hurt investor confidence and future expansion opportunities in the power sector.

An examination of the PPA terms reveals that the incentives offered to IPPs have been overly generous with backstopped payment guarantees, dollar indexation, and high return on equity allowances, contributing to Pakistan’s ever-rising power sector circular debt.

Considering that the IPPs under review have paid off their debts and have earned reasonable returns on equity, contract termination or conversion to a take-and-pay basis is a reasonable proposition given Pakistan’s persistent economic struggles and foreign exchange shortage.

While renegotiation could allow the government to save scarce economic resources, the IPPs may also have a chance at quick compensation for unpaid dues or the ability to sell power to secondary markets once Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM) reforms are operationalized. However, the negotiation process should be commercial and transparent to ensure optimal outcomes.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan’s solar boom challenges global energy assumptions - The Daily Climate

https://www.dailyclimate.org/pakistan-solar-boom-2670305662.html

Pakistan’s rapid adoption of solar energy reveals flaws in global energy demand forecasts and emphasizes the need for more adaptable energy models.
Noah Gordon and Daevan Mangalmurti report for Vox.

In short:

Pakistan has become the world’s sixth-largest solar market, with over 25 gigawatts of solar panels imported from China in three years, increasing its power supply by 50%.
High electricity costs and unreliable power grids are driving households and businesses to adopt solar, with systems often paying for themselves within two years.
Energy demand models consistently underestimate how quickly energy consumption rises as countries develop, leading to insufficient planning for cleaner energy infrastructure.
Key quote:

“Allah has given us this gift to get out of this mess.”

— Factory owner in Sialkot

Why this matters:

Underestimating energy needs in developing nations limits preparation for clean energy transitions, risking reliance on polluting sources. A realistic view of global energy demands is essential to equitably allocate resources and prevent further climate impacts.
Riaz Haq said…
In an industry riddled with challenges, Treet Battery has proven its mettle. Can they seal the deal?

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2024/12/09/in-an-industry-riddled-with-challenges-treet-battery-has-proven-its-mettle-can-they-seal-the-deal/

The battery sector is recovering and Treet has emerged as a strong contender in the industry. Now, it may be time to look for fresh capital, and an IPO is the way to go

Treet Battery hit the market at a time when the battery industry was just about to hit a slump. By the time Treet began to come out of its initial birthing pains, the industry was facing some steep challenges. Load-shedding was at an all time low, meaning people did not need to buy batteries for their UPS as regularly. The auto-industry was experiencing plummeting demand and car companies were regularly halting assembly. And on top of demand falling, there was an increase in lead prices and a devaluation of the rupee.

It was a disaster to put it mildly. Battery manufacturers that had been in the game for years found themselves floundering. In fact, the 2018-21 period marked the worst period for battery manufacturing in Pakistan. And here was a new entrant just a couple of years into its existence suddenly thrown into the deep-end.

Which is why it might come as a surprise to money that Treet Battery has come out the other end in pretty good shape. Not only has the company managed to become profitable, it has managed to increase its market share by taking away from bigger and older manufacturers like Exide and Atlas. In 2024, they earned a revenue of Rs 8.4 billion, giving them control of just under 12% of the overall market in only seven years of operations.

But there is a problem. Treet needs money. While their revenues have been increasing at an impressive rate during a difficult period for the industry and the economy, their debt costs are weighing them down. The answer to this problem is clear. Treet needs to raise more money, and perhaps the best option to do that is through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). Before we get to that, however, we must understand how Treet found itself struggling with this debt in the first place.
Riaz Haq said…
Atom Power is the first Pakistani company to locally manufacture lithium-ion cells. The company's manufacturing and IRD operations are based in Pakistan, which allows them to quickly respond to customer needs and adapt to market demands.

Other companies in Pakistan that manufacture lithium-ion batteries include:
Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co., Ltd.
Atlas Battery Limited
Phoenix Battery Ltd.
Exide Pakistan Limited
Li-Power Green Energy (Pvt.) Ltd.
Riaz Haq said…
Atom Power (PRIVATE) Limited is set to revolutionize the energy storage landscape in Pakistan and beyond with the launch of locally assembled lithium-ion batteries.

https://propakistani.pk/2024/12/03/atom-power-launches-pakistans-first-locally-assembled-lithium-ion-batteries/#google_vignette

The company has started assembling lithium-ion cells at its factory in Karachi and will unveil its cutting-edge cell-level manufacturing facility by Q2 2025, marking a significant milestone in the country’s industrial and energy sectors. That being said, in phase 2, these lithium-ion cells will be produced using locally purified graphite and other materials, enhancing both the sustainability and efficiency of the product.

Atom Power is a Wavetec subsidiary which is a key player in the tech industry with 3 decades of experience delivering successful, intelligent customer experience and self-service solutions to more than 70 countries worldwide. Wavetec’s expertise in building scalable, reliable solutions adds a crucial layer of credibility to Atom Power’s ambitious local and international growth plans.

“At Atom Power, we are committed to providing, made in Pakistan, smart, reliable, and environmentally friendly energy storage solutions that are accessible to all,” said Waqas Ahmad, CEO of Atom Power. “With our local manufacturing capabilities, we can ensure that these products meet the highest standards of quality and reliability while adapting quickly to market needs.”

The development of these advanced energy-efficient batteries is the result of extensive research and innovation led by a team of material scientists and chemical engineers under the guidance of Dr. Kamran, Head of R&D at Atom Power. Dr. Kamran, who holds a PhD in Energy Storage Technology, emphasised, “Our R&D team is focused on sourcing materials locally, a strategy that will reduce reliance on imports and support Pakistan’s growing economy. Early progress in this area holds great promise for Pakistan’s position in the global energy market.”

Atom Power’s locally assembled lithium-ion batteries will not only drive the transition to a sustainable energy future but will also enhance the efficiency of renewable energy systems, particularly solar power storage. These high-capacity, long-lasting batteries will be vital for industries, businesses, and households, helping to reduce energy costs, increase reliability in off-grid regions, and make a positive impact on the environment.

One of the major concerns for customers when purchasing batteries is related to warranty and support. Atom Power addresses this by having both its plant and R&D operations based in Pakistan. This strategic setup ensures excellent customer service, faster response times, and the flexibility to adapt to market conditions quickly, giving customers the confidence that they are supported by a local, trustworthy partner.

This ground breaking achievement not only represents a technological leap but also positions Atom Power as a leader in Pakistan’s push for energy security, industrial growth, and environmental sustainability. By embracing innovation, Atom Power is committed to contributing to sustainable energy solutions, fostering job creation, and advancing Pakistan’s technological capabilities.

With this pioneering effort, Atom Power becomes the first Pakistani company to locally manufacture lithium-ion cells, taking a crucial step toward a self-sufficient and energy-secure future.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan’s largest independent power producer expands into lithium mining, battery manufacturing

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2577791/pakistan

Hub Power Company’s subsidiary signed a collaboration agreement with Chinese EV giant BYD this year
Its lithium exploration is expected to further boost the manufacturing potential of Pakistan’s auto industry
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s largest independent power producer is set to enter lithium mining, battery manufacturing and electric vehicle (EV) production under Pakistan’s Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), according to state media on Saturday.
Established in 1991, Hub Power Company (Hubco) has an installed generation capacity exceeding 3,500 megawatts and plans to diversify in other areas.
The planned initiatives, facilitated by the SIFC, a hybrid civil-military body established last year to assist foreign investors, aim to meet the country’s growing demand for batteries and electric vehicles.
A lithium exploration and battery production project is expected to reach completion in 12 to 18 months, meeting the rising demand for rechargeable batteries used in mobile phones, laptops and automobiles.
“Hub Power Company Limited’s exploration of lithium in Pakistan will further increase the manufacturing potential in the country’s auto industry,” Radio Pakistan reported.
“Work on establishing a manufacturing plant to produce electric vehicles in Pakistan is already underway, which will manufacture fifty thousand electric vehicles annually,” it added.
Earlier this year in June, Hubco’s subsidiary Mega Motor Company signed a collaboration agreement with Chinese EV giant BYD Auto Industry to assemble EVs in Pakistan.
Plans for the EV plant, with a projected annual production of 50,000 vehicles, include 30 to 40 percent allocated for export to markets in Australia and Africa.
HUBCO operates a diverse portfolio of power plants, including oil-fired, coal-based and hydropower facilities, and is also involved in coal mining.
Its new initiatives are expected to strengthen its market position, create employment opportunities and boost domestic capacity for battery production for electronic devices.
Riaz Haq said…
Punjab invites China’s Jinko Solar to set up manufacturing plant in Pakistan

https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2582939/pakistan


Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif meets Chinese solar company officials in Shanghai during factory visit
Experts say Pakistan has ideal climatic conditions for solar power generation with over nine hours of daily sunlight

---------------

Oracle Power in talks for $1.4b financing of hybrid RE plant in Pakistan | Asian Power

https://asian-power.com/project/exclusive/oracle-power-in-talks-14b-financing-hybrid-re-plant-in-pakistan

The 1.3 GW wind and solar plant may start supplying power to 1.2 million houses by 2028.

London-based Oracle Power PLC is in talks with investors so it could start building a $1.4b hybrid renewable energy plant in Pakistan’sGharo-Jhimpir wind corridor next year, according to its CEO.

The project is expected to offer energy-starved citizens more affordable power, whilst increasing the share of clean energy in the South Asiancountry’s power mix, Oracle Power CEO Naheed Memon told Asian Power. “It's not going to be a whole lot, but it will be a reasonable input into the system.”

The 1.3 gigawatt (GW) renewable energy (RE) project spans 2,830 hectares in the Sindh region and will feature 800 megawatts (MW) of solar capacity and 500 MW of wind power, as well as a 260 MW battery energy storage system.

Memon said getting a loan to kickstart the project, which will cost $1.2b to $1.4b, is a challenge, noting that the “investment appetite” of development institutions like the International Finance Corporation and British International Investment does not align with Oracle Power’s requirements.

Join Asian Power community
“Hence, we would like to deploy this in phases so that we can actually start to build it in 100, 200 tranches of 200 to 300 MW in one go, and that is something which is more aligned with investors’ appetite,” she said.

Oracle Power aims to start operating the plant, which will supply electricity to about 1.2 million households, by 2027 or 2028, the CEO said.

Pakistan's rapid adoption of solar energy, driven primarily by market forces and with minimal political support, provides valuable lessons for other emerging markets, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said in a November 2024 report.

Declining solar panel prices, coupled with skyrocketing grid electricity tariffs that have increased by 155% over three years, are fuelling a rush in renewable energy adoption in Pakistan, with solar power leading the way, it said. The country is now the world’s sixth-largest solar market.
Riaz Haq said…
Solar cells transform agriculture in Pakistan

https://www.warpnews.org/green-tech/solar-cells-transform-agriculture-in-pakistan-2/

Pakistani farmers reduce their energy costs by up to 80 percent by installing solar panels for irrigation.
Pakistan's imports of solar panels in the first nine months exceed the entire 2023 import, equivalent to 17 gigawatts of capacity.
95 percent of farmland in the Lahore area has switched to solar power.
Sharp reduction in energy costs for farmers
Mohammad Murtaza, a corn farmer in Pakistan, has reduced his energy costs by 80 percent by replacing diesel and grid power with solar panels for his irrigation pumps. The investment in solar panels pays for itself in less than a year. The reduced costs mean he can now grow three crops per year instead of two, reports Bloomberg.

Imports of solar energy products during the first nine months correspond to 17 gigawatts of capacity - more than a third of Pakistan's total energy capacity if everything is installed. Solar panels are now being advertised on billboards in major cities and during cricket matches.

Widespread use across the country
A satellite analysis by Norwegian Atlas showed around 400 solar power installations in Pakistan, mainly concentrated in industrial areas. According to solar panel distributors, the installations are evenly distributed between households, factories, and farms.

The solar panels provide financial relief for consumers and businesses who can afford to install them. For the country, it means reduced fuel costs for imports. Pakistan aims to double the share of renewable energy to 60 percent of the energy mix by the end of the decade.

Rapid development without subsidies
The development of solar energy in Pakistan stands out through its rapid growth without government subsidies, according to Jenny Chase, analyst at BloombergNEF. The price of solar panels has dropped so much that some farmers place them directly on the ground as the mounting frames now cost more than the panels themselves.

Riaz Haq said…
Recent documents indicate that there are pending applications for solar net metering with a total capacity of 58,822 megawatts (MW), far surpassing the nation’s existing power generation capacity of 46,000 MW, as reported by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).


https://www.techjuice.pk/4742-pending-net-metering-applications-exceed-pakistans-power-generation-capacity/

IESCO currently holds the highest number of pending applications, totaling 1,363 requests that amount to a capacity of 12,276 MW. Among the significant backlogs are GEPCO, which has 117 requests totaling 6,282 MW, LESCO with 699 requests for 6,143 MW. Additionally, FESCO has 871 requests amounting to 12,399 MW, while K-Electric has 773 requests for 10,164 MW.

Delays are primarily attributed to the elevated buy-back rates associated with the net metering system. NEPRA has urged for a thoughtful reassessment of the tariff framework to tackle this concern. The authority has proposed that support for individual solar consumers should take precedence over large-scale solar projects to attain more favorable results.

Recent documents reveal that by June 30, 2024, more than 156,372 solar facilities, with a combined capacity of 2,200 MW, were established under the net metering program. The consumer base surged from 75,724 in FY2022-23 to an impressive 157,844 by the conclusion of FY2023-24, marking a significant doubling within a single year.

Update: However, according to the recent update on the NEPRA report, an earlier computation resulted in a 1000-fold misreport of the energy production capacity awaiting applications.
Riaz Haq said…
From Arif Habib Securities:

Power generation in Dec’24 increased by 1% YoY to 7,800 GWh (10,484 MW). However, it remained 2% lower than the reference generation for the month. This brings total power generation for the 1HFY25 to 66,641 GWh (15,091 MW), reflecting a 3% YoY decline. Meanwhile, the cost of power generation fell by 10% YoY to PKR 9.09/KWh, which is also below the reference cost.

The decrease in generation is attributed to lower overall demand due to a drop in temperatures across the country.

https://x.com/arifhabibltd/status/1881308984545554843?s=61


———————-

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40343586

During December, 2,065 GWh of electricity was generated from nuclear, which emerged as Pakistan’s leading source of electricity generation, accounting for 26.5% of the generation mix.

This was followed by hydel, which accounted for 22.8% of the overall generation, ahead of RLNG, which accounted for 20.7 of the power generation share.

Among renewables, electricity generation from wind sources saw a massive uptake, accounting for 3.4% of the generation mix in December 2024, as compared to 1.9% in the same month last year.

Generation from solar, and bagasse amounted to 1%, and 1.3%, respectively, of the generation mix.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan’s solar revolution rewriting energy landscape; 22 GW of solar panels imported in 18 months

https://www.app.com.pk/national/pakistans-solar-revolution-rewriting-energy-landscape-22-gw-of-solar-panels-imported-in-18-months/

ISLAMABAD, Jan 30 (APP):Pakistan’s solar revolution is rewriting the energy landscape as communities and businesses take control of their power supply. With 22 GW of solar panels imported in just 18 months, the country is undergoing a mass shift towards decentralized solar solutions.


This was discussed at the Great Solar Rush Conference 2025, hosted by Renewables First and the Pakistan Solar Association on Thursday, said a press release.

In her opening remarks, Senator Sherry Rehman emphasized the urgency of policy alignment with this people-led transformation, stating, “Pakistan has emerged as a market leader in South Asia for solar adoption. We should not be disabling this revolution; we should be enabling it.” She warned that failure to integrate solar into national planning would stall Pakistan’s progress on energy security and economic stability.


Zeeshan Ashfaq, CEO of Renewables First, highlighted the economic realities driving this transition. “Millions of people are rushing towards installing solar PV panels—not because of climate change but because economics make perfect sense.”
Ali Majid, General Manager of Longi, proposed that public sector projects should be mandated to use ‘Made in Pakistan’ panels to attract international investment in local assembly plants.
Waqas Moosa, Chairman of the Pakistan Solar Association, reinforced that Pakistan’s solar adoption rate is one of the highest globally.

Syed Faizan Ali Shah, Member of the Prime Minister’s Solarization Committee, revealed that Pakistan’s daytime electricity demand has fallen by 10 TWh annually due to the solar surge, creating imbalances for grid operators.
Dr. Fiaz Chaudhary, Chairman of NTDC, said to address the operational challenges, Pakistan’s grid must urgently integrate smart metering and distributed energy controls.

Umer Farooq of LUMS Energy Institute emphasized that Pakistan’s energy planning must shift from a top-down approach to decentralized, smart-grid solutions to balance supply and demand efficiently.

As solar becomes a dominant energy source, market liberalization through the Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM) is essential.
Salman Amin, a Member of the Competition Commission of Pakistan, stated, “A competitive electricity market will lead to more efficient resource allocation, increased innovation, better service quality, and stakeholder adoption of cleaner, cost-effective technologies”.
Industry representatives present at the event stressed the need for lowering wheel charges in the CTBCM model to promote market participation.
While commenting on the monopolistic nature of the power sector Usama Mela, Member of the National Assembly and Member of the Energy & Economy Forum, commented that as long as independent power producers are subject to guaranteed returns, they do not represent competitive businesses.
He agreed that greater competition in the power sector is the sensible way forward. However, it must be considered within the larger context of grid issues and capacity payments.
Member of National Assembly Dr. Nafisa Shah emphasized that there is a need to gradually open up the power sector for competitive trade under the CTBCM model while also considering the past contracts and decisions that are clogging the system.
Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council, delivered the closing remarks, highlighting Pakistan’s remarkable solar growth on the global stage. “Pakistan was the market that surprised so many all over the world,” she stated, noting that Pakistan is contributing significantly to the 600 GW of solar deployed worldwide in 2023.
Riaz Haq said…
148 Chinese enterprises showcase cutting-edge solutions at Solar Expo

https://www.nation.com.pk/27-Feb-2025/148-chinese-enterprises-showcase-cutting-edge-solutions-at-solar-expo


ISLAMABAD - Solar Pakistan 2025, the country’s largest and only dedicated alternative energy event, concluded at the Expo Centre in Lahore, marking a milestone in Pakistan’s renewable energy journey.

The three-day event was the largest in its history, spanning five halls and featuring more than 350 exhibitors from 10 countries.

Among them, 148 Chinese enterprises stood out, showcasing innovative solar and energy storage technologies tailored to Pakistan’s growing energy needs.

The exhibition brought together a diverse mix of stakeholders, including policymakers, investors, manufacturers, suppliers, traders, and distributors.

It served as a platform to showcase innovations in solar energy, energy storage, and other alternative energy solutions, with a particular focus on addressing Pakistan’s energy challenges.

Chinese companies, a prominent feature of the event, demonstrated their commitment to supporting Pakistan’s renewable energy goals.

Sungrow, an industry leader in inverter and energy storage solutions, exhibited for the 5th time, showcasing its latest residential and commercial energy storage systems.

The products are designed to address Pakistan’s unstable grid and the growing demand for reliable backup power, particularly in the industrial and residential sectors.

At the event, Sungrow’s Regional Director Howard Fu highlighted the company’s decade-long presence in Pakistan. Since entering the Pakistani market in 2015, the company has been at the forefront of the country’s solar energy transformation.

During the exhibition, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Pakistan’s Artistic Milliners for a significant energy storage project, further strengthening its collaboration with local partners.

Dong Jin Group, another key Chinese exhibitor, showcased a range of products tailored to the Pakistani market, including residential energy storage systems, commercial inverters, lithium batteries, and electric vehicle batteries.

These innovations align with the Pakistani government’s vision of developing green energy cities. Hu Ge, General Manager of Dong Jin Pakistan, highlighted the immense potential of Pakistan’s solar market.

“The Pakistani government’s support for solar energy over the past few years has created a mature and dynamic market. With recent policy adjustments, we anticipate explosive growth in the solar-plus-storage sector,” Hu said.

He also announced that Dong Jin is set to participate in another major solar exhibition in Karachi later this year.

Shah Jahan Mirza, Managing Director of the Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) at the Ministry of Energy (Power Division), Government of Pakistan, visited the Chinese exhibitors’ booths during the event, expressing his support for the growing international collaboration in the renewable energy sector.

“Chinese companies have played a crucial role in advancing our solar energy infrastructure, and we look forward to further strengthening this partnership,” Mirza stated according to a report carried by Gwadar Pro on Wednesday.
Riaz Haq said…
VEON’s Jazz to Deploy 1,000 Solar Sites across Pakistan in collaboration with Huawei

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/VEON/veon-s-jazz-to-deploy-1-000-solar-sites-across-pakistan-in-omfnuh98lja2.html

VEON (Nasdaq: VEON) announced that its Pakistani digital operator Jazz has partnered with Huawei to implement solar power across 1,000 sites in Pakistan. The project, utilizing Huawei's iSolar technology, will be completed in the coming months of 2025.

The initiative aims to achieve up to 96% energy cost reduction at implemented sites, supporting Jazz's goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The solar deployment will enable reliable connectivity powered by renewable energy while demonstrating environmental responsibility in Pakistan's telecom sector.

The project is designed to serve as a scalable model for future expansion, establishing a replicable framework for sustainable telecom infrastructure development.

VEON's strategic partnership with Huawei to deploy solar power across 1,000 Jazz sites in Pakistan represents a significant operational efficiency initiative with measurable financial benefits. The projected 96% energy cost reduction at these sites is substantial in the telecom sector, where energy typically constitutes 20-30% of network operating expenses.

This initiative addresses two critical challenges for telecom operators in emerging markets: rising energy costs and unreliable power grids. By reducing dependency on traditional electricity sources, VEON not only cuts operational expenses but also potentially improves network reliability in areas with unstable power infrastructure—a competitive advantage in customer experience.

The rapid implementation timeline ("within coming months") suggests accelerated financial benefits, though the article doesn't quantify absolute cost savings. Given the scale of 1,000 sites, the impact on Jazz's Pakistan operations should be material, though investors should contextualize this within VEON's broader global footprint.

Beyond immediate cost savings, this project establishes a replicable framework that could be extended to VEON's other markets, potentially multiplying the financial benefits across the company's operations. The partnership with Huawei leverages industry-leading solar technology, positioning VEON at the forefront of operational efficiency in emerging markets.

VEON's solar deployment initiative represents a substantive step toward decarbonizing telecom infrastructure in Pakistan. With 1,000 sites transitioning to solar power, this project demonstrates meaningful scale rather than mere tokenism in sustainability efforts. The telecom sector is increasingly scrutinized for its energy consumption; network infrastructure typically operates 24/7 and traditionally relies heavily on diesel generators in regions with unreliable grid power.

The partnership with Huawei brings technical credibility through their iSolar technology, which has been deployed globally. The dual benefit of 96% energy cost reduction alongside carbon footprint reduction creates the ideal alignment between financial and environmental objectives that drives successful sustainability initiatives.

This project supports VEON's stated commitment to net-zero carbon by 2050, showing concrete action behind the target. For investors with ESG considerations, this demonstrates VEON's operational approach to climate risk mitigation and energy transition planning. The scalability mentioned suggests this serves as a proof-of-concept that could inform wider deployment across VEON's global operations.

Beyond environmental benefits, solar deployment addresses energy security challenges in Pakistan, where power shortages can impact service reliability. This creates resilience in VEON's operations while simultaneously reducing environmental impact—a winning combination for sustainable business operations in emerging markets.
Riaz Haq said…
‘The Solar Blitz’: How crisis-ridden Pakistan is leading the world on the ‘Solar March’ – pv magazine International

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/03/04/the-solar-blitz-how-crisis-ridden-pakistan-is-leading-the-world-on-the-solar-march/


From pv magazine Germany

In English, the term “The Blitz” refers to the attacks by the German Luftwaffe on Great Britain in 1940/41. In addition, the German word “Blitz” has found widespread use in English-speaking terminology to this day as a result of the reception of the term “Blitzkrieg”.

The term “Solar Blitz” has now been used to describe a “lightning-like” expansion of photovoltaics in Pakistan. The news magazine Fokus described this development as “the most extreme expansion ever”. If we stick to the military-tinged language, “Pakistan is leading the rest of the world on the solar march”.

What?

Unfortunately, in Germany, Pakistan is usually only associated with poverty and terror. As in many other regions, this is a very distorted image. In 2024, “poor” Pakistan will have installed as much new photovoltaic capacity as rich Germany? Over 16 GW? Many are seriously asking themselves. For the first time, media outside the industry are reporting on an extreme solar market development before it is more widely discussed and analyzed in the industry.

But what do the media reports refer to? Well, industry analyst Jenny Chase from BloombergNEF reported on developments in Pakistan in a TED talk, among other things. The video is well worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsVhgta2WAo

Jenny Chase not only reports on the (notoriously very imprecise) export figures for solar modules from China to Pakistan in recent years, but above all on her analysis of satellite images to check the expansion of solar power. And lo and behold: Pakistan is suddenly teeming with photovoltaic systems. Despite all the remaining uncertainties, missing data and inaccuracies: there is a massive increase in solar power.

The local and global industry is amazed, wondering what is really happening and how better data can be collected. And at the same time, Pakistan could be a harbinger of similarly massive developments in countries that were previously not expected. Or it could show the eternally complaining slow-movers in countries like Germany what so-called developing countries can do.

“Anarchy on the internet”, “that won’t work with their network”, “where do they get the money from?”, “they don’t have any specialists for that” – these are the laments of those who are putting the brakes on and preventing such developments.

A “poor” country shaken by crises, a nuclear power and at the same time often dysfunctional, plagued by terror. A weak power grid, blackouts as the norm, extreme droughts and heat waves as a direct result of climate change, which lead to further blackouts. This is because the need for electricity for cooling is increasing rapidly, while conventional power plants no longer receive enough cooling water.

With 250 million people, Pakistan is the fifth largest country in the world in terms of population. With a gross domestic product of $338 billion, it ranks 46th, roughly comparable to the gross domestic product of the German state of Hesse with its 6.4 million inhabitants.

Pakistan's grid-connected electricity production and electricity consumption are given as around 110 TWh for 2024, but appear to be declining compared to 2023, which contradicts expectations of increasing demand, but could be a sign of the massive expansion of solar energy.

The annual global solar radiation in Pakistan is 1.5 to 2.5 times the German values. With the possible photovoltaic expansion of 17 GW in 2024 or around 26 GW in the two years 2023/24, depending on the situation in the country, 30 to 50 TWh of solar power could be produced per year.

I'm sorry, what? That would be at least 30% of total electricity consumption, and it was “solarized” in a maximum of two years?

Riaz Haq said…
‘The Solar Blitz’: How crisis-ridden Pakistan is leading the world on the ‘Solar March’ – pv magazine International

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/03/04/the-solar-blitz-how-crisis-ridden-pakistan-is-leading-the-world-on-the-solar-march/

The annual global solar radiation in Pakistan is 1.5 to 2.5 times the German values. With the possible photovoltaic expansion of 17 GW in 2024 or around 26 GW in the two years 2023/24, depending on the situation in the country, 30 to 50 TWh of solar power could be produced per year.

I'm sorry, what? That would be at least 30% of total electricity consumption, and it was “solarized” in a maximum of two years?

That is entirely conceivable and feasible:

If the regulators/grid operators can't do it, you can also generate XXL electricity yourself with solar energy.

Anyone can get involved — the technology forgives many mistakes and is largely “plug and play”. The Pakistanis are also used to bridging their grid problems with diesel generators or batteries of all kinds, and now both solar modules and batteries are cheaper than ever and available in large quantities. Thanks to the good relations with China, there are no tariffs standing in the way of taking advantage of the low prices in Pakistan. You just get started, put modules on the roof, in the field or wherever. If they fall over or fall down, you just install them again. Finally having permanent and cheap electricity is an extremely good motivation and, as already described, anyone can get involved, because solar is known to range from very small to atomic size.

You can see how quickly a “super grid” becomes obsolete when you combine production and consumption in a decentralized manner at thousands of locations. If the battery or generator is there anyway, there is no discussion about blackouts or anything like that. Impressive.

And yes:

If a poor country can do that — then many others will surely follow suit.

And for our (fear-filled) discussions in Germany, Pakistan can once again be a global example of what is possible if you really want it. Or if the citizens just do it. In Germany and the EU, for example, grids are only popular as long as energy generation cannot take over a 24/7 supply 365 days a year in a decentralized manner (usually redundant anyway) at a much cheaper rate.

The issue is already a reality in China: photovoltaic-wind power-storage hybrids on a gigawatt scale without a grid connection, but because their product is hydrogen and not clean electricity. This is now possible everywhere, even on a small scale, and Pakistan seems to be showing the way with warp speed and XXL.

I am excited to find out what we will learn about the details in Pakistan and how big the “solar flash” really is. For me, it is already one of the most exciting and inspiring stories in my 33 years as a solar entrepreneur. I hope that the people of Pakistan can continue to shape this great development for their own benefit and I am a little jealous of this “just do it, paperwork later” mentality.

Karl- Heinz Remmers — The author Karl-Heinz Remmers has been working as a solar entrepreneur since 1992, beginning with the planning and installation of solar systems and the production of solar thermal collectors. In 1996, he launched Solarpraxis, with its own specialist articles, book and magazine publishing and Solarpraxis Engineering, which is still active today. The successful start-ups also include the pv magazine Group, now overseen by well-known partners, and the conference series Forum Solar Plus. In addition to Solarpraxis Engineering, the focus of his activities today is on the development, planning, construction and operation of solar systems as IPP. He also carries out active political work within the framework of the Association of Energy Market Innovators (bne). More here: https://www.remmers.solar/ueber-mich/
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan nearing $4.4 billion loan to ease power sector debt

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2592811/pakistan

Pakistan’s government is negotiating 1.25 trillion Pakistani rupee loan with commercial banks
Plugging unresolved power sector debt is top priority under ongoing IMF bailout program
KARACHI: Pakistan’s government is negotiating a 1.25 trillion Pakistani rupee ($4.47 billion) loan with commercial banks to reduce its bulging energy sector debt, the power minister and banking association said.

Plugging unresolved debt across the sector is a top priority under an ongoing $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout, which has helped Pakistan dig its way out of an economic crisis.

“The loan will be repaid over a period of 5 to 7 years,” Power Minister, Awais Leghari told Reuters, adding that the term sheets are yet to be signed.

Pakistan’s government, the largest shareholder or owner of most power companies, faces a challenge in resolving debt due to fiscal constraints. To address this, Islamabad has raised energy prices, as recommended by the IMF, but still needs to settle the accumulated debt.

“We’ve approached many banks, let’s see how many participate. It’s a commercial transaction and they have the choice of participating, however, we think there is liquidity in the system for it and banks have the appetite,” Leghari said.

The government plans to reduce “circular debt” — public liabilities that build up in the power sector due to subsidies and unpaid bills — this year by eliminating government-guaranteed debt and moving to a revenue-based system.

This approach is expected to lower financing costs, enabling the government to pay off interest and service debt obligations, he added.

“Such repricing of liabilities induces more efficiency, and reduces cost for consumers,” said Ammar Habib Khan, adviser to the power minister.

Zafar Masud, Chairman of the Pakistan Banks Association, told Reuters that the interest rate would be a floating exchange rate and the country’s top banks would participate, in addition to those who are already part of the outstanding loan.

“⁠This will help in clearing up all the debt in the next 4 to 6 years which has been sitting on banks’ balance sheets,” he said.

Masud added that more than half of the 1.25 trillion debt is already on the banks’ books and is undergoing restructuring through self-liquidating facilities, which currently lack identifiable cash flows to support them.
Riaz Haq said…
US legal troubles for tycoon Adani expose shortcomings in India's booming solar sector | AP News


https://apnews.com/article/india-solar-adani-bribery-energy-fcpa-4f27c3d155d048d78f0c2321ebdfec69

Earlier this month, Trump suspended the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, raising expectations among some in India that the allegations against Adani might be put on ice. Shares in Adani’s companies surged but then fell just days later when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sought help from Indian authorities in serving its complaint against Adani.

The allegations have had wider repercussions outside India. Adani Green Energy has withdrawn its wind energy projects from Sri Lanka after the island nation sought to renegotiate prices. Kenya canceled energy and airport expansion deals with the company, while investor TotalEnergies, a French oil giant, has paused new investments.



————-

India restricts imports of cheap Chinese solar modules and is subsidizing local manufacturers. That helped raise domestic production by six-fold in 2021-2023, according to the Press Trust of India, though Indian-made solar components are more expensive than Chinese one.

But India lags behind countries like Brazil and Australia in rooftop solar, having installed only 11 gigawatts so far -– far less than the 40 gigawatts it aimed to have by 2022. Policies favoring large installations have constrained growth of solar, which mainly comes from football-field-sized farms, Rutter said.

—————-

India’s state-owned electricity companies are chronically short on cash. By 2022-23 their losses totaled $7.8 billion — 2.4% of India’s GDP, according to government data. Operations are plagued by bad planning, fears of public anger over higher electricity rates and large electricity losses during transmission.

“Waiving the costs upfront makes it cheap for those building power plants, but ultimately the system has to bear that cost,” said Rohit Chandra, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi.

Accommodating inevitable fluctuations in solar and wind power is also costly, said Vibhuti Garg, an energy economist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis or IEEFA. That means keeping expensive coal power on standby.

Renewable energy is cheaper than coal in India, but utilities still view clean power as just a “statutory obligation,” said Alexander Hogeveen Rutter, an energy analyst in Bengaluru.

Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan cuts solar net-metering buyback rate to Rs10 per unit
ECC approves amendments to net-metering regulations to ease financial burden on grid consumers.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2534077/govt-revises-solar-net-metering-buyback-rate-to-rs10-per-unit

The government has reduced the buyback rate for electricity under net metering from Rs27 per unit to Rs10 per unit, citing a "significant increase in the number of solar net-metering consumers" and the resulting financial strain on grid consumers.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, approved amendments to the existing net-metering regulations aimed at alleviating the growing financial burden on grid consumers, according to a statement from the Finance Division.

As part of the approved changes, the ECC revised the buyback rate from the National Average Power Purchase Price (NAPP) to Rs10 per unit. The decision follows concerns about the financial impact of the rising number of solar net-metering consumers on the national power grid.

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) will now be authorised to revise the buyback rate periodically, ensuring the framework remains flexible and aligned with market conditions.

However, the revised framework will not apply to existing net-metered consumers who have valid licenses, agreements, or concurrence under the NEPRA (Alternative & Renewable Energy) Distributed Generation and Net Metering Regulations, 2015.

These agreements will remain effective until they expire, ensuring the rights and obligations of these consumers are upheld as per the original terms.

The ECC also approved an update to the settlement mechanism for electricity billing. Under the new structure, imported and exported units will be billed separately.


Exported units will be purchased at the new buyback rate of Rs10 per unit, while imported units will be charged according to peak/off-peak rates, inclusive of taxes and surcharges.

The Power Division was authorised to issue proposed guidelines, subject to Cabinet’s ratification, for NEPRA’s incorporation into the regulatory framework to ensure clarity and consistency in the implementation of these changes. The decision follows discussions on the growing impact of solar net-metering on the national power grid.

The Power Division highlighted the need for regulatory adjustments due to the record decline in solar panel prices, which has led to a sharp rise in the number of solar net-metering consumers.

As of December 2024, solar net-metering consumers had transferred a burden of Rs159 billion to grid consumers, a figure that is projected to grow to Rs4,240 billion by 2034 without timely amendments.

The number of solar net-metering consumers surged significantly, reaching 283,000 by December 2024, up from 226,440 in October, 2024. The total installed capacity also grew from 321 MW in 2021 to 4,124 MW by December, 2024, underscoring the rapid expansion of the sector.

However, the increase in solar net-metering consumers has led to a higher cost of electricity for grid consumers, undermining the government’s efforts to reduce power tariffs.

The ECC also discussed how these consumers avoid paying the fixed charge component of the tariff, which includes capacity charges and the fixed expenses of power distribution and transmission, placing a disproportionate financial burden on grid consumers.

The committee also noted that 80% of solar net-metering consumers are concentrated in nine major cities, with a significant portion located in affluent areas. This geographic concentration highlights the need for regulatory reforms to ensure fairness and balance within the energy distribution system.
Riaz Haq said…
Faysal Bank, Akhuwat Foundation, TCF partner for interest-free solar financing

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1290007-faysal-bank-akhuwat-foundation-tcf-partner-for-interest-free-solar-financing

KARACHI: Faysal Bank Limited (FBL) has strengthened its commitment to sustainability and women’s empowerment by partnering with Akhuwat Islamic Microfinance (AIM) and The Citizens Foundation (TCF), a statement said.

Under this collaboration, the bank aims to provide women with interest-free solar financing. Launched on International Women’s Day, this initiative reflects FBL’s long-term vision of creating an equitable and sustainable future while making a real impact through corporate social responsibility (CSR).

This initiative will allow educators and women across Pakistan to install solar systems with flexible repayment plans.

By promoting green energy, this initiative supports global climate goals. It helps reduce electricity costs, lowers carbon emissions, and lessens reliance on the national grid. Faysal Bank remains committed to meaningful change, ensuring financial relief and sustainability for educators—most of whom are women -- so they can continue shaping future generations.

Speaking on the occasion, President and CEO of Faysal Bank Yousaf Hussain stated: “At Faysal Bank, we believe that true progress is driven by sustainability and empowerment, leading to meaningful action. Through this initiative, we are not only promoting renewable energy but also alleviating financial burdens and fostering long-term resilience for women. In line with this year’s International Women’s Day theme, Accelerate Action, we remain steadfast in our commitment to creating a more inclusive, equitable, and sustainable future -- one where all women have the opportunity to thrive”.

Founder of Akhuwat Foundation Dr Amjad Saqib said: “Our collaboration is a step towards creating a more sustainable and equitable society. By offering interest-free solar financing, we are not only contributing to environmental conservation but also uplifting women and educators, providing them with financial independence and a cleaner, greener future. We extend our heartfelt gratitude to Faysal Bank for supporting this noble cause.”

CEO of TCF Asad Ayub shared his remarks: “This partnership brings together our shared vision of empowering women and ensuring a sustainable future for the next generation. By providing access to solar energy, we are equipping women with the tools for a brighter, self-sufficient tomorrow. We are grateful to Faysal Bank and Akhuwat Foundation for making this initiative possible.”

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