US Missile Sanctions: Are Pakistanis Really Developing ICBMs?
The outgoing Biden Administration has announced additional new sanctions against Pakistani entities working on the nation's missile program. The latest round of sanctions includes the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based organizations: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise. Explaining the decision, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer accused Islamabad of having developed "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors.” “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer added, as reported by Reuters news agency.
"They don't acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased," said the second U.S. official, adding that Pakistani officials have wrongly implied that U.S. sanctions on their missile program are intended "to handicap their ability to defend against India."
Finer said senior U.S. officials, including himself, who he said repeatedly have raised concerns about the missile program with top Pakistani officials. Washington and Islamabad, he noted, had been "long-time partners" on development, counter-terrorism and security. "That makes us question even more why Pakistan will be motivated to develop a capability that could be used against us. If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China, according to Reuters.
"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.
His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan's ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defense agency that oversees the program.
Pakistan has denounced the new US sanctions on the country’s ballistic missile program as “discriminatory” and accused the Biden administration of putting the region’s peace and security at risk. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”.
U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on X that the U.S. had “been clear and consistent about our concerns” over such weapons proliferation and that it would “continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues.” Pakistani officials have cast doubt on US allegations that targeted businesses were involved in weapons proliferation because previous sanctions “were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever”, according to media reports. The sanctions are also opposed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Pakistan’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
A.K. Chishti, a Pakistani analyst, believes that the US sanctions are aimed at disrupting Pakistan's efforts to build a second-strike capability. "The US sanctions against Pakistani firms, particularly those tied to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and other defense contractors, appear to be a calculated attempt to slow down Pakistan's nuclear missile advancements", says Chishti. "These companies are central to Pakistan’s missile program, including efforts to develop submarine-launched nuclear platforms, which are critical to second-strike capability", he wrote in an article published by The Wire Pakistan.
My own view is that Pakistan is developing heavier rocket engines for satellite launch capability to compete with India in space. Space is becoming increasingly important for national security and Pakistan has a lot of catching up to do to remain relevant.
It also appears that the events of the past year in the Middle East have reinforced the view among the peoples of many developing countries, including Pakistan, that the only law that matters in today's world is the "Law of the Jungle" in which "Might is Right". This is causing them to take their national security much more seriously than in the past. They are all looking to find ways to deter against wanton aggression and to defend themselves in the event of arracks.
Will the US pressure on Pakistan work? The following two quotes answer this question:
1. "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009
2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West." Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011
Rabia Akhtar, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Managing the Atom project, believes that targeting specific entities within Pakistan’s missile development framework ignores its indigenous capabilities. She says that this self-sustained program operates independently of external influences and is not easily swayed by coercive tactics. She also contends that such measures fail to address broader regional security dynamics while neglecting the provocations that drive Pakistan’s deterrence posture.
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https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pakistan-dismisses-us-officials-warning-over-missile-programme-unfounded-2024-12-21/
KARACHI, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Pakistan's Foreign Ministry on Saturday dismissed as unfounded and "devoid of rationality" assertions by a senior U.S. official that its missile programme could eventually pose a threat to the United States.
Earlier this week, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said Pakistan's development of long-range ballistic missiles made it an "emerging threat".
Finer's comments, which came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to the ballistic missile programme, underscored the deterioration in once-close ties between Washington and Islamabad since the 2021 U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Addressing Finer's remarks, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said the perception of an alleged threat was "unfortunate".
"These allegations are unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history," the ministry added in a statement.
The ministry said its strategic capabilities were solely for defending its sovereignty and maintaining regional stability, and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3291826/pakistans-reported-j-35-deal-shows-chinese-stealth-fighter-ready-global-market-analysts
Pakistan’s reported procurement of J-35 jets from China signals that the stealth fighter is ready to enter the international market, potentially helping to finance development of more advanced weaponry for the People’s Liberation Army, analysts say.
The sale would mark Beijing’s first export of fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally and is expected to recalibrate regional dynamics, particularly in relation to Pakistan’s rival, India.
Pakistani broadcaster 24 News HD reported last week that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had approved the purchase of 40 of the aircraft, which are expected to be delivered within two years to replace the country’s ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters.
@PravinSawhney
Since conventional war deterrence is far more important that nuclear deterrence between India & Pakistan, IAF should seriously consider SU-57 aircraft.
PAF has edge over IAF in:
1. Electronic Warfare (it demonstrated this in 2019 Balakot. And since 2021, it has been working on Cognitive AI)
2. Pak CAS, ACM Sidhu announced in Jan that his force was ready to induct fifth generation J-35A (air force version) into service. Reports say PAF to get 40 J-35A. It already has J-10C & JF-17
3. It is fair to assume that J-35A will come with advanced weapons & sensors. With this acquisition PAF will have an advanced stealth fighter, what IAF lacks.
4. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, I understand, will not be available on time. There are too many issues.
Hope Russia brings SU-57 to Aero-India in Feb 2025 in Bangalore!
https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1870668314344657331
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/white-house-says-pakistan-is-developing-long-range-missile-capable-of-hitting-the-u-s-0863d5eb?st=JnrPdo&reflink=article_email_share
U.S. revealed intelligence after Islamabad rebuffed confidential discussions about its missile program
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The development of a long-range missile that could target the U.S. would take several years and perhaps as long as a decade, a senior Biden administration official (Deputy NSA Jon Finer) said.
“We’re trying to build this pressure to get ahead of this problem because we don’t want Pakistan to go down this road so far that we are dealing with something that is more imminent,” the administration official added.
Pakistan has long had a close military relationship with China, which also views India as an adversary and has supplied the Pakistani military with arms and assistance for its missile program.
Finer said the U.S. is seeking a cooperative relationship with Pakistan and has worked with Islamabad on counterterrorism over the years. Despite ups and downs in relations, the U.S. has sought to preserve channels of communication, in part because of Pakistan’s position in the region and its status as a nuclear armed state.
The U.S. focus on countering China and on improving relations with India has strained ties in recent years with Islamabad, which has become less important to Washington since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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He (Finer) declined to say why Pakistan might want to develop such a longer-range missile. But some analysts said that Islamabad might be seeking a way to deter Washington from assisting India if another war erupted between Pakistan and India.
Pakistan might also be seeking to raise the potential risks of a U.S. effort to forcibly disarm Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal, though U.S. officials said Washington has no intention to do so.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is slowly increasing and is currently about 170 warheads, according to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, a nonprofit that looks at security issues.
The air force has long promoted versatile missile systems fired from jets, but critics say new threats require a shift to ground-based arms that are faster and more cost-effective
https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-idf-rethink-some-see-air-launched-missile-doctrine-moving-to-more-solid-ground/
Israel’s defense and military procurement budget is expected to increase significantly over the next decade in a process that will require an open, professional, and transparent debate on the country’s doctrines for fighting and defense.
Among the areas of discussion will be the evolution of Israel’s long-range attack systems, including ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Currently, Israel’s defensive strategy appears to favor the use of air power, as seen in retaliatory Israeli strikes against Iran in October and against Yemen this month.
Preparing a long-range retaliatory strike with fighter jets is a complex process requiring international-level coordination, solutions for refueling, and the operation of communication, rescue, and intelligence systems. This preparation can take significant time.
Israel’s October 26 strike on Iranian military sites came weeks after Iran lobbed hundreds of ballistic missiles toward the Jewish state, with Israel under immense diplomatic and security pressure.
In contrast, had Israel employed precision ballistic missiles, the response could have occurred within approximately one hour, according to experts pushing for increased use of long-range arms. Using cruise missiles could have reduced response times to three or four hours, they claimed.
The reason Israel did not use ground-based ballistic or cruise missiles is that there do not appear to be many in its military arsenal, apart from the Jericho system, which foreign reports claim is designated for other strategic missions.
Instead, the military appears to be championing the development of air-based attack systems. US intelligence documents that leaked in October allegedly described Israel’s plans to attack Iran, including the potential use of ballistic missiles launched from fighter jets.
Among the weapons mentioned were missiles dubbed “Golden Horizon” and “ROCKS,” thought to refer to domestically produced air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs.
The leak marked the first known mention of the Golden Horizon system, but speculation has linked it to either the Air LORA, an ALBM made by Israel Aerospace Industries based on a ground-based missile with a range of over 400 kilometers (250 miles), or the Blue Sparrow ALBM made by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems with a range of some 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles).
ROCKS, also developed by Rafael, is another ALBM; its range is approximately 300 kilometers (188 miles).
There is also a ship-launched version of the LORA, with a slightly shorter range.
On November 1, 2024, internet users spotted an Israeli Sa’ar 5-class missile boat equipped with LORA missile launchers sailing through the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea.
Recent sanctions are further evidence of Pakistan’s relative decline in importance in the US, analysts note
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3292048/net-advantage-india-what-us-sanctions-mean-pakistans-relevance-washington
The United States’ latest sanctions targeting Pakistan-based entities for their involvement in the country’s ballistic missile programme have bolstered India’s strategic position and underscored Islamabad’s fading relevance in Washington, analysts say.
The US sanctioned four entities on Wednesday, including the state-owned National Development Complex, that it said were contributing to the programme. A statement by the US Department of State said the entities were “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction”.
“Today, the United States is designating four entities that are contributing to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. We have been clear and consistent about our concerns, and we will continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller posted on X.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, said the sanctions would benefit India by effectively limiting Pakistan’s ability to expand its ballistic missile arsenal, a development that New Delhi viewed as a strategic gain.
“Any attempt to weaken the growth of Pakistan’s missile development programme or any step to diminish the growth of any aspect of Pakistani proliferation programmes would be seen as a good thing in India, given its deep rivalry with Pakistan,” Kugelman said.
“From the zero-sum perspective, seeing its rival getting sanctioned is going to be a net advantage for India.”
Political experts say a missile that can reach beyond India fits with Pakistan’s latest thinking on deterrence
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/pakistans-nuclear-strategy-shifts-as-u-s-realigns-ties-in-asia-d604df98?st=awJB43&reflink=article_email_share
“In that situation, Pakistan’s hard-liners, Pakistan’s hawks, think they need to think beyond just today and tomorrow,” said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S. and a scholar at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. “They have to think about what happens if there is a global conflict in which India is aligned with the U.S. and Pakistan is considered as a partner of China.”
Pakistan on Tuesday rejected Biden administration officials’ assertions that it is developing ballistic-missile technology that could eventually give it the capability to strike the U.S., but geopolitical experts say long-range weapons would be in step with Islamabad’s shifting national security concerns as India and the U.S. draw closer.
The U.S. last week imposed sanctions on four entities involved in Pakistan’s missile program, including the National Development Complex, which it said oversees Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles. Deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said the sanctions were imposed after Washington and Islamabad failed to make progress in confidential talks.
U.S. intelligence points to efforts by Pakistan to develop equipment to test large rocket motors, according to White House officials. “Just looking at a map and looking at ranges, you know, we believe that this is fundamentally focused on us,” said Finer at an event sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association in Washington on Thursday.
Pakistan hasn’t publicly acknowledged developing long-range or intercontinental ballistic missiles. Its longest-range publicly known missile is the Shaheen-III, tested in 2021, with a range of about 1,700 miles.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday said that there was no justification for the sanctions and that the country’s nuclear program is only for defense.
Over the weekend, the country’s foreign ministry called the claim that it has hostile intentions toward the U.S. “irrational” and said that Pakistan maintains the right to develop capabilities to deal with evolving threats.
For decades, Pakistan’s strategic national security planning has focused largely on India, which it views as a threat. Political experts say that there has been a subtle change in its posture over the past decade.
The U.S. and Pakistan were unlikely but close partners in a relationship shaped largely by U.S. objectives in Afghanistan during the Cold War, and after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. But U.S. frustrations grew over what Washington said was Pakistan’s unofficial support for Taliban insurgents, and more recently over the country’s ties with China, which has bankrolled billions of dollars of infrastructure in the country.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3292254/pakistan-stunned-us-fears-over-its-missiles-assesses-impact-south-asia
Washington’s assessment comes as Pakistan aims to balance its relations with the US and China amid fears of collateral damage
Pakistan has been blindsided by Washington’s designation of the entity overseeing the South Asian country’s ballistic missile development as a prospective threat to US national security, officials and analysts say.
The Pakistani foreign ministry said the US move to impose economic sanctions over the Rawalpindi-based National Development Complex on December 16 was an attempt by Washington to tilt the balance of power in South Asia in favour of India. The two South Asian countries have fought several wars since partition in 1947.
US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said last Thursday that Pakistan’s missile capabilities were an “emerging threat … fundamentally focused on us”, triggering concerns in Islamabad about Washington’s intentions.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-canada-panama-canal-greenland-1235217402/
President-elect Donald Trump has once again repeated his desires for U.S. territorial expansion. In a message delivered on Christmas Day, Trump took aim at the Panama Canal and Greenland, while also addressing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau directly.
“Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal,” the president-elect began in a Truth Social post, before claiming “38,000 people” died during the waterway’s construction. (BBC previously fact checked that the number was closer to 300.) He continued, writing: “United States puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”
Trump then mocked Trudeau, referring to him as the “Governor” of Canada, and once again floated the idea of the country becoming the “51st State,” while promising its “Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other Country anywhere in the World.”
The president-elect also reiterated his previous intention to bring Greenland under American control, writing that the territory, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, “is needed by the United States for National Security purposes and, who want the U.S. to be there, and we will!”
Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede made clear on Monday that the territory was not for sale. “Greenland is ours,” the prime minister said in a statement. “We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our years-long struggle for freedom.”
However, the Danish prime minister’s office issued a separate statementsaying that the government is “looking forward to welcoming the new American ambassador. And the Government is looking forward to working with the new administration.”
On Monday, the Danish government later announced a huge boost in defense spending for Greenland, per the BBC.
Trump also took the opportunity to deliver another holiday message on Wednesday, urging Hockey Hall of Famer Wayne Gretzky — who joinedTrump in Mar-a-Lago after his election win in November — to run for prime minister of Canada. “I just left Wayne Gretzky, ‘The Great One’ as he is known in Ice Hockey circles,” Trump wrote in another Truth Social post. “I said, ‘Wayne, why don’t you run for Prime Minister of Canada, soon to be known as the Governor of Canada – You would win easily, you wouldn’t even have to campaign.'”
Modi did everything to defeat Muizzu in the 2023 election in the Maldives by providing men & money but failed. Even RAW had a plan to remove President Muizzu after the election. The Washington Post reports Modi manipulating elections in foreign countries.
https://x.com/ashoswai/status/1873810065469432187?s=61&t=mgTxrmITUbpo9NntN5677Q
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A plot in paradise and India’s struggle for influence in Asia
Secret contacts between Indian agents and politicians in the Maldives over ousting its pro-China leader reflect the growing contest between Asia’s great powers.
By Gerry Shih and Siddharthya Roy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/30/maldives-president-muizzu-india-china-influence/
In January, after Muizzu had won and taken office, an adviser to the Muizzu family said, a senior RAW intelligence officer at New Delhi’s embassy in Washington explored a plan to overthrow the president with two Indian intermediaries who had political and business contacts in the Maldives. One intermediary was Shirish Thorat, a former Indian police officer who has worked as a private military contractor and who advised Mohamed Nasheed when he was the Maldivian president on how to curb Islamist radicalization. The other was Savio Rodrigues, a publisher based in the Indian state of Goa who previously served as a spokesman for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. The Muizzu family adviser provided The Post with surveillance records of phone calls and meetings held by the RAW official and Thorat, who now lives near Washington, but did not explain how the records were obtained. When contacted by The Post, Thorat and Rodrigues separately confirmed the existence of plans to remove Muizzu but declined to say whether they were working on the Indian government’s behalf. When asked about his meetings with an Indian intelligence officer, Thorat explained that he sometimes paid social visits to friends working at the embassy and said he was not surprised that he had been surveilled, “given my work.”
Derek Grossman
👀 "The Washington Post examined six cases in Pakistan through interviews with Pakistani and Indian officials, the militants’ allies and family members, and a review of police documents and other evidence collected by Pakistani investigators. They reveal the contours of an ambitious Indian assassination program with marked similarities to the operations in North America."
https://x.com/derekjgrossman/status/1874017951868932380?s=61&t=mgTxrmITUbpo9NntN5677Q
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campaign of covert killings
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has cast himself as more willing to take on India’s enemies beyond its borders than any other leader since independence.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/31/india-pakistan-targeted-killings-assassinations/
The murder-for-hire operations India used to target dissidents in the West were tested and refined in Pakistan, a Washington Post investigation found. The Post is investigating a global surge in campaigns of cross-border repression. The US and other Western governments have struggled to stem this phenomenon. As a result, sanctuary for those fleeing persecution is shrinking on nearly every continent.
The Washington Post examined six cases in Pakistan through interviews with Pakistani and Indian officials, the militants’ allies and family members, and a review of police documents and other evidence collected by Pakistani investigators. They reveal the contours of an ambitious Indian assassination program with marked similarities to the operations in North America.
In Pakistan, the killings were carried out by Pakistani petty criminals or Afghan hired guns, never Indian nationals, officials said. To aid deniability, RAW officers employed businessmen in Dubai, a regional commercial hub, as intermediaries and deployed separate, siloed teams to surveil targets, execute killings and funnel payments from dozens of informal, unregulated banking networks known as hawalas set up in multiple continents, according to Pakistani investigators. But the RAW also at times used sloppy tradecraft and poorly trained contractors, mirroring what was observed by U.S. and Canadian law enforcement.
The killings in Pakistan typically targeted the alleged leaders of two United Nations-designated terrorist groups — Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad — which have been accused by India of attacking Indian troops or, years ago, Indian citizens. The Sikh separatists who were targeted in Canada and the United States, Hardeep Singh Nijjar and Gurpatwant Pannun, were also designated as terrorists by India, although Western officials and analysts have disputed the persuasiveness of the Indian evidence against them.
Many details of the Indian operations in Pakistan have not been previously reported. Pakistani and Indian officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence activities and ongoing investigations.
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In 2014, the current Indian national security adviser, Ajit Doval, said it was unrealistic to invade Pakistan but that India should use covert means to punish Pakistan for backing militant groups that attack Indian troops and civilians. “We can defend ourselves by going to the place from where the offense is coming,” Doval told a university audience. “Pakistan’s vulnerability is many, many times higher than India’s.”
Pakistan Begins 2-Year Term At UN Security Council, To Oppose Reform Sought By India
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-gets-un-security-council-seat-says-will-oppose-reform-sought-by-india-7379211
Pakistan will also preside over the UN Security council in July. This will allow Islamabad to set the United Nations Security Council agenda. It also secured a seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating terrorists and imposing sanctions.
Pakistan today replaced Japan for a seat at the world's topmost diplomatic body - the UN Security Council. Islamabad will occupy one of the two seats from the Asia-Pacific region (South Korea being the other) for two years starting today.
Pakistan will also preside over the council in July when it will be the Chair. This will allow Islamabad to set the United Nations Security Council agenda. In addition to this, Islamabad finds itself holding another crucial post after it secured a seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating individuals and groups as terrorists and imposing sanctions.
This new two-year tenure as a non-permanent member would be Pakistan's eighth term at the top UN body. It comes at a significant time, when central and west Asia is experiencing a political and humanitarian crises - the war in Gaza, crisis in Lebanon, heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, the regime change in Syria, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, to name a few.
Europe too is reeling under severe economic strain of the years-long Russia-Ukraine war. In East Asia, there are serious concerns over China's threat to Taiwan and North Korea's military rise while South Korea is imploding from one of its worst political crises. China also has serious differences with Philippines and Vietnam leading to naval face-offs.
Explainer: Pakistan's military modernisation programme
By Indian Analyst Sidhant Sibal
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
From the Naval domain to the air domain, a rapid programme of modernisation is taking place. Islamabad's natural raison d'être remains India, but also increasingly angry Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan's air attacks as a violation of sovereignty.
https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/explainer-pakistans-military-modernisation-programme-8592871
Pakistan's military remains a key component of the country's politics, but even as the economy remains fragile, one thing that is not halted is the country's military modernisation. From the naval domain to the air domain, a rapid programme of modernisation is taking place. Islamabad's natural raison d'être remains India, but also increasingly angry Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan's air attacks as a violation of sovereignty. Let's understand what kind of modernisation Pakistan is undergoing and its impact on the country:
Naval Domain
Pakistan plans to transform its Navy into a 50-ship force by the next decade, including 20 major warships. This ambitious fleet expansion hinges on partnerships with China, Turkiye, and Romania. Pakistan has initiated the modernisation of its fleet with foreign shipbuilders like Damen Shipyards in Romania for offshore Patrol vessels. The navy is set to acquire advanced Hangor-class submarines from China, MILGEM-class corvettes from Turkiye, and the first-ever indigenous Jinnah-class frigates.
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Air Domain
As reported by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, Pakistan is reportedly planning to acquire 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighter jets, which marks a major step in its military aviation capabilities. J35 are fifth-generation stealth fighter jets developed by China's Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. These fighters are intended to replace Pakistan's ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters. While there's no official confirmation from China, the speculation around this deal has been significant.
China Partnership
Pakistan and China have close ties, something that is well known. While India and China ties have seen positive momentum, it does not mean Islamabad and Beijing will forgo military partnership or ties which are "higher than mountains and deeper than oceans". China has provided support for the modernisation of both the Pakistani Air Force and the Naval forces. As Admiral Tripathi noted at the presser, "These ships and submarines are either being made in China or being made with Chinese support." China has obvious interests in making the Pakistan Navy strong given its interest in Gwadar port. The port could connect the western part of China with the Indian Ocean overland Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan's defence diplomacy
Apart from modernisation, Pakistan has been actively involved in international naval exercises. In February this year, Pakistan will be hosting AMAN-25, the 9th such naval exercise off the coast of Karachi. In 2023, the exercises saw the participation of ships from China, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and the USA. The aim is to project Pakistan's naval strength in the Indian Ocean.
Missile programme and sanctions
Pakistan increasingly plans to modernise and reform its missile programme which has raised eyebrows not only in the region but also in Washington. The United States has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on entities involved in Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile programme, targeting both Pakistani and Chinese companies. The December 2024 sanctions regime included a Pakistan state-run enterprise, the National Development Complex (NDC) that saw a strong response from Islamabad, which defended its missile program.
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/01/07/starlink-registered-with-securities-and-exchange-commission-of-pakistan-it-minister/
Minister of State for Information Technology and Telecommunication Shaza Fatima Khawaja confirmed that Starlink, the satellite internet service owned by US billionaire Elon Musk, has been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP).
“The Space Board Authority is currently reviewing various technical aspects, and we have communicated updates to Starlink,” the minister stated while speaking to Geo.tv.
She added that the government is working on a regulatory framework to open low earth orbit (LEO) satellite services to all international companies.
The development follows Musk’s remarks on social media platform X, where he stated that Starlink is awaiting approval to begin operations in Pakistan.
Government officials disclosed that international consultants are assisting in formulating a comprehensive policy for regulating non-jurisdictional and non-stationary LEO satellites.
In a related development, Pakistan is set to benefit from the 2Africa Submarine Cable System, which aims to significantly enhance internet speed and reliability. Facilitated by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) through Transworld Associates as the landing party, the cable is part of a global initiative involving Meta and Vodafone.
The 45,000-kilometre cable, equipped with state-of-the-art SDM1 technology and a capacity of 180 Tbps, will connect 46 locations across Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. Installation began on December 1, 2024, at Hawksbay, Karachi, with deep-sea laying planned to start in April 2025.
Once operational in Q4 2025, the system will provide Pakistan with 24 terabytes of bandwidth, significantly improving the performance of platforms like Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram.
Currently, the country relies on approximately 8 terabytes of bandwidth from seven existing cables.
Pakistan, grappling with slow internet speeds and frequent disruptions, ranks 100th out of 111 countries in mobile internet speeds and 141st out of 158 countries in broadband speeds, according to Ookla’s Speedtest Global Index. Download speeds stand at 20.61Mbps for mobile internet and 15.60Mbps for broadband.
By Indian Analyst Sakshi Tiwari
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/after-stealth-j-35a-from-china-pakistan/
Pakistan’s appetite for a fifth-generation fighter jet appears to be expanding. Amid reports that the cash-strapped country has decided to purchase China’s newly unveiled J-35A aircraft, it is now reportedly holding discussions with Ankara for collaboration on Turkey’s fifth-generation combat jet, KAAN.
During the recently held eighth Pak-Turk Industrial Expo Joint Working Group meeting in Pakistan, the two sides discussed bilateral defense and industrial cooperation, including the possible export of Turkey’s KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet to the Pakistani Air Force (PAF). According to Turkish reports, the talks were attended by representatives of 32 institutions, including defense giants from both countries.
In addition to exploring the potential export of KAAN to Pakistan, both nations reportedly also discussed the design and co-development of an all-new helicopter.
Pakistan and Turkey are close allies. In 2021, the two states signed a formal agreement to boost defense cooperation by undertaking joint arms manufacturing and have since made concerted efforts to boost engagement and collaboration. The potential deal for KAAN is one of the components of this growing partnership, especially as Turkey seeks customers for its fifth-generation jet and Pakistan harbors ambitions to modernize its air force.
In July 2023, reports and social media posts from Pakistani military bloggers suggested that Pakistan was on the cusp of signing a contract to join the ‘KAAN’ stealth fighter jet project. No agreement to that end has been signed—yet.
The KAAN has come a long way since. Manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAÅž), KAAN made its first flight in February 2024, catapulting Turkey into the elite group of countries that have indigenously developed a fifth-generation aircraft.
Though envisioned as an air-superiority fighter, some experts believe that the KAAN has evolved into a multi-role fighter, more on the lines of the F-35. This also explains Pakistan’s sustained interest in the aircraft.
While the discussions on KAAN’s export continue to take place, there is a paucity of information about the nature of these talks and whether Islamabad would join the program as a co-developer or purchase the aircraft.
By Syed Ali Zia Jaffery
https://thebulletin.org/2025/01/why-us-sanctions-against-pakistans-ballistic-missile-program-might-backfire/
Erosion of US sanctions’ coercive value. Pakistan will likely seek to evade US sanctions to enhance and diversify its missile forces, which are seen as necessary to deter external aggression from India. Pakistan’s bolstering of its missile force is aimed at plugging any gaps in its deterrence mosaic that India might exploit at all levels of conflict. Pakistan’s objective—formally known as “full-spectrum deterrence”—is to ensure that all Indian targets and territories are within reach of its missile force. Pakistan, therefore, will see US sanctions as a hurdle that must be leapt over.
Voices in support of this view will likely become louder in Pakistan as these new US sanctions against Islamabad are contrasted with Washington’s growing partnership with New Delhi.
In recent years, the United States and India have taken their defense and strategic partnerships to the next level, ostensibly to counter China. This partnership gave India greater access to advanced US defense technologies. The two countries have also expanded their cooperation in the space domain, which is concerning to Pakistan for two reasons: India has a history of using space-launch vehicles to augment its ballistic missile capabilities, and this collaboration will likely also accelerate India’s development of military capabilities in space. All this will not only increase Pakistan’s anxiety but might also push it to take measures to counter India’s militarization of space. For instance, it could compel Pakistan to develop large-diameter solid rocket motors that are important for space-launch vehicles.
Pakistan’s concerns vis-Ã -vis the US-Indian partnership will likely leave little room for Islamabad to accept US sanctions. The costs of scaling back its ballistic missile program would be too prohibitive, in Pakistan’s eyes, compared to those that these sanctions could generate.
Advancements in Pakistan’s India-specific ballistic missile program, despite sanctions, will add to the existing skepticism about the coercive value of such tools. Should Pakistan, which is not even a US adversary, successfully dodge sanctions, it will reinforce the idea that such measures might not work against other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, exactly at a time in which the United States would like to see its sanctions be effective. Because the United States appears insensitive to Pakistan’s security concerns, sanctions could backfire: Pakistan will likely circumvent them while telling the world that its nuclear and missile programs are non-negotiable.
Pakistan might get closer to China. Any US attempt to target Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missiles will contribute to alienating Pakistan from the United States, which might cause Islamabad to strengthen its relations with China in response. As Washington and New Delhi are committed to countering Beijing, Islamabad could argue that India gaining a strategic advantage over it will ultimately jeopardize China’s investments and interests in the region. This argument could resonate well with China, not least because of its growing stakes in Pakistan.
Another reason that Pakistan-China relations might further mesh is the confidence they have gained from their record of navigating US sanctions. Their cooperation in the field of missile development started in 1989, coinciding with the end of the halcyon days of Pakistan-United States relations. A year after Islamabad and Beijing signed a 10-year defense production contract, the United States imposed sanctions under the 1985 Pressler Amendment on Pakistan. These sanctions, however, did not stop China from transferring its M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan, even though the shipment of these short-range ballistic missiles later triggered two rounds of US sanctions on Chinese and Pakistani entities in 1991 and 1993.
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/us-says-pakistan-developing-long-range-missiles
In a Dec. 19 speech sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association, Finer described Pakistan’s missile activity as an “emerging threat to the United States.”
In a Jan. 3 briefing for nongovernmental experts, senior U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, said that Pakistan’s capability to field long-range ballistic missiles is “several years to a decade” away and is part of an ongoing effort dating back several years to increase the range and throw-weight capabilities of the country’s ballistic missiles.
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not confirm or deny that the country was developing long-range missiles in a statement issued Dec. 19. The statement said Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are “meant to defend its sovereignty and preserve peace and stability in South Asia.”
The senior U.S. officials also revealed at the Jan. 3 briefing that, to address U.S. concerns, Washington had proposed several “basic” confidence-building measures to Islamabad, including sharing telemetry information on Pakistani ballistic missile testing and setting limits on the outside ranges to which Pakistan would test its ballistic missiles. These ideas “were rejected” by Pakistani interlocutors, the U.S. officials said.
The day before Finer’s speech, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions on four entities under an executive order that allows the president to target proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems. One of the entities, the National Development Complex, is “responsible for Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles,” according to the announcement. The three other entities were targeted for supplying the National Development Complex with equipment relevant to missile development. This is the first time that the United States has sanctioned a Pakistani state-owned entity involved in missile development, Finer said.
Earlier this year, the United States also announced sanctions against commercial entities in Belarus, China, and Pakistan that “have supplied missile-applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, including its long-range missile program.”
The foreign ministry statement said that the U.S. imposition of “sanctions defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries.” It accused the United States of engaging in “discriminatory practices” that undermine the nonproliferation regime.
Long-range ballistic missiles generally are defined as having a range greater than 3,500 kilometers and are used to deliver nuclear warheads. Pakistan’s longest-range missile system is the Shaheen-III, which was first tested in 2015 and has an estimated range of 2,750 kilometers.
India has flight tested the Agni-V long-range ballistic missile, which has a range of more than 5,200 kilometers, and is developing the longer-range Agni-VI, ostensibly to counter Chinese nuclear capabilities.
Pakistan’s decision to develop longer-range systems suggests that it may see an expanded role for its nuclear deterrent, which is largely focused on countering India’s nuclear and conventional weapons.
Pakistan’s existing tactical-, short-, and medium-range nuclear-capable ballistic missiles already allow it to strike targets in every corner of that country.
State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a Dec. 19 press briefing that Washington hopes to “engage constructively” with Islamabad on this issue but that it is long-standing U.S. policy to deny support for Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2JLx6u5/
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https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1272795-trump-ally-praises-pakistan-s-sacrifices-for-america-urges-close-ties
Video footage passed to Geo News shows Gentry Beach sharing with audience his recent visit to “amazing place called Pakistan”
LONDON: A Texas hedge fund manager and a business partner of the Trump family has praised Pakistan’s sacrifices in the war against terrorism, advising President-Elect Donald Trump to make Pak-American relations stronger than before.
Gentry Beach, who has been a close ally of the Trump family and involved in Trump’s two election contests, made these remarks at the Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast at Mar-a-Lago in the presence of leading Donald Trump aides, donors and supporters. Video footage passed to Geo News shows Gentry Beach sharing with the audience his recent visit to the “amazing place called Pakistan”.
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Gentry Beach said: “Joe Biden’s team told them they were worried they could put a missile in Washington DC. They looked at me and said ‘Do you believe this, we will never do any such thing to America’.”
To applause from the audience, Beach said: “Pakistan is the type of place we need to build a strong bridge to. We need to be working together and creating value for the whole world. It’s a perfect example of what has been wrong with the previous administration and how we need to fix it under the leadership of President Trump.”
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President-elect Trump, top Republicans, business leaders and his team members clapped when Gentry Beach made his powerful speech in defence of Pakistan. Beach says in the video: “This past week I had the benefit of visiting an amazing country Pakistan, a country I have never been to before. Let me tell you, this is a very pro-Trump environment, a very pro-family environment where people want to raise their kids and be good people.
“These people have sacrificed so much for America, they were literally on the front lines in that part of the world and have lost tens of thousands of people to terrorism, just like Israel does by living on the front lines every day. All they want is peace.” Beach said he gathered from his talks with the Pakistani leaders that they are very keen to work with America on equal terms as friends and partners, as close allies and as good friends. The businessman said that Pakistan was a misunderstood country and he condemned President Joe Biden’s administration for putting sanctions on a few Pakistani companies.
He said: “It’s a misunderstood place in the world and these are the types of things we need to fix. Unfortunately, the previous administration burnt every possible bridge they could. Unfortunately, recently they went as far as putting sanctions on someone who is our ally if you can believe that, someone who has stepped up and done good things for us.”
Gentry Beach said: “Joe Biden’s team told them they were worried they could put a missile in Washington DC. They looked at me and said ‘Do you believe this, we will never do any such thing to America’.”
To applause from the audience, Beach said: “Pakistan is the type of place we need to build a strong bridge to. We need to be working together and creating value for the whole world. It’s a perfect example of what has been wrong with the previous administration and how we need to fix it under the leadership of President Trump.”
Gentry Beach met Pakistan’s senior leadership and held extensive talks. Beach is known as a close friend, business partner and longtime hunting buddy of Donald Trump Jr. He helped raise millions of dollars for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and has had special access to top government officials and the Trumps. During his talks with the Pakistani leaders, Beach committed to bringing billions in foreign direct investment to Pakistan in strategic projects like rare earth minerals, oil and gas exploration, IT, education and infrastructure, the source said.
https://spacenews.com/china-launches-earth-observation-satellite-for-pakistan/
PRSC-EO1 is the first of a series of three optical remote sensing satellites for Pakistan, which will join the country’s existing remote sensing satellites, PRSS-1 and PakTES-1A, in orbit.
These satellites will provide data for the fields of land mapping, agriculture classification and assessment, urban and rural planning, environmental monitoring, natural disaster monitoring and management, surveying, natural resources protection and others uses, according to SUPARCO.
China and Pakistan have a close space relationship, and Pakistan signed up to China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) moon base project in October 2023.
The mission carried two further satellites. These are the DAO-1 (Tianlu-1) satellite, developed by Galaxy Space for the Jianghuai Frontier Innovation Technology Center, and the Blue Carbon-1 (Lantan-1) satellite, developed by Geespace, also known as Zhejiang Shikong Daoyu Technology Co., Ltd., for Hangzhou Dianzi University.
The launch was China’s third orbital launch attempt of the year. It follows the launch of the Shijian-25 spacecraft servicing satellite Jan. 6, which appears to be approaching the Shijian-21 space debris mitigation technology satellite launched in 2021, and the sea launch of 10 navigation augmentation satellites Jan. 13.
CASC has yet to publish an overview of China’s overall plans for the year, but it may once again attempt to reach around 100 launches, as targeted for 2024. Major missions for 2025 include crewed Shenzhou-20 and -21 missions and Tianzhou cargo spacecraft to the Tiangong space station and the Tianwen-2 near-Earth asteroid sample return mission. The latter is expected to launch around May.
China aims to debut a number of new Long March and potentially reusable commercial rockets during 2025. These include the Long March 8A and 12A, and Zhuque-3 (Landspace), Tianlong-3 (Space Pioneer), Pallas-1 (Galactic Energy) and Kinetica-2 (CAS Space) from commercial entities.
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is on the brink of introducing the JF-17 Block 4 under the PF-X (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program, aiming for a debut in 2028. This development prompts a reflection on how India's Tejas MkII could have potentially evolved beyond its current 4.5 generation designation.
JF-17 Block 4 (PFX) Stealth features
Diverterless supersonic inlets (DSIs)
Internal weapons bay (IWB) for 2-4 BVR Air to Air Missiles
https://idrw.org/pakistans-leap-in-fighter-jet-technology-the-advent-of-jf-17-block-4-under-pf-x-program/
https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/future-of-pakistans-air-power-takes-shape-with-jf-17-pfx-fighter-jet
The PFX's twin-engine design promises improved maneuverability and greater payload capacity, while the use of composite materials is expected to reduce its radar signature. These advancements are intended to make the JF-17 PFX a serious competitor to other advanced fighter jets in the region, such as India’s Tejas MkII. The latter, under development by India, highlights the ongoing strategic rivalry between the two nations. As India works on an improved version of its domestic fighter jet, focusing on increased range and enhanced avionics, Pakistan seeks to counterbalance this with a more advanced and capable aircraft.
The PFX program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen domestic defense production capabilities. Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. This initiative is not only about modernizing the country's aerial capabilities but also about positioning Pakistan as an emerging player in the global military aviation industry.