Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?
The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie?
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| Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS |
Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months. Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so.
Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security? Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades? Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!
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| Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio |
There has been no official US reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it.
In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.
In January this year at an Islamabad event, Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms.
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| Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles |
Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense.
As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country.
Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region. Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.
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https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/518450/Iran-should-join-Saudi-Pakistan-defense-pact-Leader-s-adviser
TEHRAN – A top military adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution has welcomed the newly signed defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, describing it as a positive step for regional security while underlining Iran’s own military readiness and commitment to deterrence.
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said in a televised interview on Saturday that the “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” signed in Riyadh between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should be regarded as constructive.
“We assess this treaty as positive. Pakistan has announced that other countries can join, and I recommend that Iran also participate,” Safavi said. “Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iraq could move toward a collective pact. Even though Saudi Arabia and Pakistan would not finalize such an agreement without U.S. approval, we should declare readiness as a regional power. This falls under our military diplomacy and foreign policy to take an active role in regional defense-security treaties.”
The Saudi-Pakistani deal, signed on Saturday, September 17, pledges that any act of aggression against either country will be considered an attack on both, requiring a joint response. The agreement, which the two sides described as “landmark,” aims to enhance mutual deterrence.
The signing came one day before an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha on Sunday, convened after deadly Israeli airstrikes on Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital. The strikes occurred amid ongoing Qatari mediation efforts to halt Israel’s war on Gaza.
Since the attacks, several countries, including Iran and Pakistan, have called for the creation of a regional coalition to defend Muslim nations against foreign-backed aggression. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also said that the assault on Qatar could not have happened without U.S. consent, urging Muslim countries to establish a NATO-style Islamic military alliance.
The strikes occurred despite the presence of a major American military base in Qatar, underscoring regional accusations that Washington allowed the assault to proceed.
Alongside support for regional cooperation, Iranian commanders reiterated their forces’ full preparedness to defend the country against any threat.
Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, praised the achievements of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly its Aerospace Force, during Iran’s recent 12-day defensive campaign against U.S. and Israeli aggression.
“These victories reflect the faith, innovation, and resilience of our commanders and fighters. They demonstrate that the strategy of active deterrence and decisive, crushing response is effective and instructive,” Mousavi said during a Sunday meeting with Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour. He added that Iran is continuing to modernize its defense systems and that coordination between the Army and IRGC ensures both deterrence and the safeguarding of national independence.
Major General Amir Hatami, Commander-in-Chief of the Army, echoed the message, stressing that Iran constantly monitors adversary activities and will respond firmly to any miscalculation. Speaking at the closing ceremony of the Army’s 23rd joint cadet training program during Sacred Defense Week, Hatami reminded young officers of the Army’s mission to safeguard independence, territorial integrity, and the Islamic Republic.
“The enemy must know that, with the capacities, capabilities, and lofty ideals of the Iranian nation, we will inevitably emerge victorious. Our armed forces, supported by the people and guided by the wise leadership of the Commander-in-Chief, have always defeated aggression and will continue to do so,” Hatami said.
https://youtu.be/oncjDJn5hM8?si=7jsX849oOAgduqnX
AI Overview
New regional security architectures are not entirely replacing US security guarantees but are challenging them and creating a more complex global security landscape. Driven by a perception of declining US reliability, countries in key regions are increasingly hedging their bets by diversifying their security partners and arrangements.
Key trends
Diversification beyond US influence
Nations that once depended heavily on the US are actively exploring and creating new security alliances to reduce reliance on Washington.
Middle East: A mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signed in September 2025, reflects a growing distrust of the US-led security architecture. For Riyadh, this pact complements, rather than replaces, its existing ties with Washington.
Indo-Pacific: Regional players like Japan, Australia, and India are deepening their defense ties, including through expanded joint exercises and intelligence sharing. South Korea is also exploring stronger connections with European powers.
Perception of fading US credibility
Reports indicate that the perceived credibility of US security commitments is eroding across different regions. This trend is fueled by a sense of US retrenchment and inconsistent foreign policy across different administrations.
In Asia, the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella is reportedly seen as eroding, encouraging countries to seek alternative security options.
In the Middle East, past US responses to regional attacks have led to partner frustrations and concerns over the inadequacy of US protection.
Emergence of alternative security frameworks
The emerging regional security architectures are often more fluid, less institutionalized, and feature overlapping and sometimes contradictory arrangements.
Competition: The development of competing security frameworks could lead to a less stable regional order, with nations hedging their bets in an uncertain environment.
Alternative models: New configurations could include bilateral accords, regional compacts, or new nuclear-sharing arrangements.
US response and implications
The rise of these architectures forces the US to adapt its strategy in an increasingly multipolar world.
Adjusting strategy: In regions like the Middle East, some argue the US should welcome certain regional defense pacts. This would allow it to focus on other strategic interests by ceding some control over the regional security architecture.
Potential for instability: While a more balanced regional security dynamic offers new opportunities for cooperation, the potential for accelerated nuclear proliferation and instability poses significant risks.
Shifting focus: The US is re-evaluating its global role, particularly its longstanding ambition of primacy. This is a move towards a world defined more by national interest and a balance of power, and less by US-led normative issues like democracy promotion.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-plans-video-game-hub-184912136.html
(Prince) Mohammed (Bin Salman) , who chairs Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, has already invested some $30 billion in the industry, according to market researcher Aldora. That includes building up a stake in Nintendo Co. and acquiring the publisher of the hit game .
The kingdom also constructed a sprawling city that’s home to four different gaming arenas as part of that effort.
“Their overarching strategy is to bring jobs to Saudi Arabia — that’s a generational move over the next 20 years,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities Inc.
Electronic Arts, whose hits include the football franchise, the shooting series and the soccer game, “checks all those boxes,” Pachter said.
The Electronic Arts deal comes after the prince announced in May that he would boost investment in the US to $1 trillion in the coming years as part of a push to deepen trade ties between the kingdom and the world’s largest economy.
“The prime minister and the field marshal of Pakistan … they were with us right from the beginning. In fact, they just put out a statement that they fully believe in this pact,” Trump stated. “They back this 100 per cent.”
The US president also thanked Netanyahu for agreeing to the plan and for “trusting that if we work together, we can bring an end to the death and destruction” in the region.
Read more: https://www.dawn.com/news/1945467/
The rupee settled at 88.76 against the U.S. dollar, its weakest ever closing level and down slightly from its close at 88.7175 on Friday. The currency declined to an all-time low of 88.7975 last week.
After starting the session with a modest uptick, the local currency drifted lower through the session, averting a sharper decline due to dollar sales by multiple state-run banks, which traders said were likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-anchored-near-record-low-outflows-corporate-dollar-demand-2025-09-29/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/03/qatar-trump-security-guarantee-israel/
The U.S. relationship with the small Persian Gulf country of Qatar entered new territory this week. By executive order, President Donald Trump on Monday offered Qatar security guarantees — including a commitment to quickly respond to acts of “foreign aggression” — a level of support usually reserved for Washington’s closest allies.
The text of the order is explicit. “The United States shall regard any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of the State of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States,” it reads. “In the event of such an attack, the United States shall take all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military — to defend the interests of the United States and of the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.”
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The executive order falls short of a NATO-style mutual defense agreement. Because it has not been ratified by the Senate, it is not binding. Future presidents will not be required to abide by it. Still, despite its limitations, the order grants Qatar assurances for which its Persian Gulf neighbors have long lobbied.
Over the years, Qatar has served quietly a central role in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. The country has hosted a Hamas political office since 2012, a move local officials say they made at the explicit request of the U.S., so the office so it could be used as a line of communication for negotiations.
Even before Qatar was mediating the Gaza ceasefire, it was a critical bridge between the U.S. and the Taliban during peace talks on Afghanistan and during the evacuation in 2021. Qatar has also helped secure prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. And in 2023, it was Qatar that mediated a prisoner swap between the U.S. and Iran.
The small country’s outsize role hasn’t always won it plaudits — including among American conservatives. “It is fair to say that Qatar plays both sides,” read an editorial in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that the country is “far from the typical profile of a state receiving U.S. guarantees.”
https://www.ft.com/content/9f7c7bf2-76ed-4eb6-bb9a-f628d05b0068
Late last month, Pakistan shipped a modest first consignment of fewer than two tonnes of critical and rare earth minerals to USSM that included copper, antimony and neodymium. The price of antimony has soared since Beijing imposed a ban on selling it to the US late last year.
Advisers to Pakistan’s military strongman Asim Munir have approached US officials with an offer to build and run a port on the Arabian Sea that could give Washington a foothold in one of the world’s most sensitive regions. The audacious plan, seen by the Financial Times, envisages American investors developing the seaside fishing town of Pasni as a terminal for access to Pakistan’s critical minerals. Pasni is just 100 miles from Iran and 70 miles from the Pakistani city of Gwadar, which has a China-backed port. The initiative, which is not official policy, reflects how Pakistani officials are exploring ways to capitalise on the sweeping geopolitical upheaval in South Asia of recent months.
The offer has been floated with some US officials, and was shared with Munir ahead of a meeting with Donald Trump in the White House late last month, according to two civilian advisers to the army chief who both asked not to be named. But a senior Trump administration official said the US president and his advisers had not discussed such a proposal.
The scheme is one of several ideas floated publicly and privately by Pakistani officials to maintain momentum with the Trump administration. They include engagement with a Trump-backed crypto venture, deepening co-operation against Afghanistan-based militant group Isis-K, endorsement of his Gaza peace plan and access to critical minerals.
Munir and Trump have forged what US and Pakistani diplomats are referring to as “a bromance” since the American president claimed credit in May for a ceasefire that ended the worst fighting between Pakistan and India in decades.
After two decades of warming ties with India, the US has over the summer publicly sparred with New Delhi. While India has rejected Trump’s claims of involvement in the ceasefire, Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have publicly thanked him and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
In return, Trump has lavished praise on Pakistan’s army chief. After their latest meeting last month, the White House released pictures of Munir and Sharif presenting the US leader with a display case of mineral samples.
“The whole narrative [of the US-Pakistan] relationship changed after the war,” said one of the advisers, who has been involved in back-channel contacts with the Trump circle for more than a year.
“It was very bad before then. We had not tended the relationship as we should have,” the adviser said. “In the last two decades the Indians occupied the space in the vacuum.”
The proposed port at Pasni would be linked to a new railway to transport minerals from Pakistan’s interior, the advisers said, in particular copper and antimony, a vital ingredient in batteries, fire-retardant and missiles.
A blueprint anticipated the port would cost up to $1.2bn with a proposed financing model that would be a mix of Pakistani federal and US-backed development finance. Advocates of the plan see it as a way of hedging the country’s position on the global stage as it seeks to balance a constellation of diplomatic ties with China, the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with which Islamabad signed a security pact last month.
“Pasni’s proximity to Iran and Central Asia enhances US options for trade and security . . . Engagement at Pasni would counterbalance Gwadar . . . and expand US influence in the Arabian Sea and Central Asia,” according to the blueprint.
“China’s Gwadar investments under the Belt and Road Initiative raise dual-use concerns,” it added, in an apparent allusion to US concerns Gwadar could serve as a Chinese naval base, a suggestion denied by Islamabad and Beijing.
By Nour Eid
https://thebulletin.org/2025/10/the-saudi-pakistani-strategic-mutual-defense-pact-that-no-one-saw-coming/
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact in September stipulating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” The announcement sparked confusion after Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif suggested that the pact, which cements a long-standing relationship between the two countries, included a nuclear umbrella. Although Asif later retracted his comment, whether Pakistan has extended a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia remains unclear.
The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia pact signals to Washington the kingdom’s discontent over flailing US security guarantees, and its willingness to use strategic ambiguity, as the need to counterbalance Israel and Iran heightens.
Increasing regional security concerns. Many media outlets depicted Israel’s missile strikes in Qatar earlier in September, which targeted Hamas political leaders, as the trigger for the pact. Israel’s blatant violation of Qatar’s sovereignty, one of the major US allies in the region, deeply rattled the Gulf monarchies, traditionally shielded from regional turbulences.
Despite being officially neutral in the war between Iran and Israel, the Gulf countries, and Qatar in particular, found themselves dragged into the conflict when Iran retaliated for US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by attacking the US Al Udeid Air base near Doha, although with little damage and only after giving Washington early notice. Saudi Arabia’s security was also put at risk, albeit unintentionally, in September as two Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Israel broke apart mid-flight over Saudi territory.
While Israel’s increasing boldness and growing hegemony in the region certainly worry the Gulf monarchies, it is hard to believe that the Pakistan-Saudi pact was a direct product of the attacks on Qatari territory. An agreement of this magnitude would ordinarily take months, or even years, to negotiate. That said, the timing of the pact sends a message to the unleashed Israeli government. But most of all, it results from a mounting perception that the United States had abandoned the region, a fear that first solidified following Washington’s mild reaction to Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.
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As the value of US security guarantees appears to weaken in the eyes of the Gulf monarchies, the Saudi-Pakistani defense pact aims to prove to Washington that Riyadh is willing to diversify its partnerships and reduce its dependence on the United States for its security. This defense agreement is more likely a symbolic reinforcement of a long-standing partnership than a NATO-like agreement, with unconditional war guarantees and obliged military intervention. The pact also arguably sends a strong political message of solidarity between the two Sunni countries, especially to Iran and Israel.
In an evolving multipolar environment, countries are increasingly hedging through a diversification of partnerships. Israel’s growing hegemony and its lack of accountability are accelerating this behavior in the Middle East at large, as demonstrated by the Saudi-Pakistani defense pact and the first joint Egyptian-Turkish naval exercise in a decade. Washington will have to limit Israeli actions and demonstrate its commitment to the Gulf monarchies’ security concerns if it hopes to prevent further alienation and a deepening of ties with Beijing. President Trump took a first step in that direction this week by signing an Executive Order about guaranteeing the defense and security of Qatar, which uses language similar to NATO’s Article 5—a first in the region.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1947237
Pakistan will be sold Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) by United States defence group Raytheon following a modification in the firm’s contract that included the country in the list of buyers, it emerged on Tuesday.
The US missiles are equipped on F-16 Falcons flown by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
A September 30 press release on the contracts issued by the US Department of War for the US Air Force said Raytheon was awarded a $41.6 million firm-fixed-price modification to a previously awarded contract for the enhanced C8 and D3 AMRAAM variants and their production.
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AI Overview
The Silent Hunter: Ultimate Guide to the AMRAAM Missile
Pakistan will be receiving AIM-120D-3 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) from the United States, which are expected to have a range of over 160 kilometers (99 miles), with some reports indicating a potential of up to 200-300 km for various variants. This is a significant upgrade from the AIM-120C5 variant the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) currently operates on its F-16s. The deal aims to enhance Pakistan's air defense capabilities and is part of improved military cooperation between the two nations.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/after-two-years-of-war-israel-is-strongerand-more-isolatedthan-ever-dc500e33?st=dmfwhF&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Israel is emerging from the carnage as the regional hegemon with a string of military victories. But the country’s fight against Palestinian militant group Hamas also has left it increasingly politically isolated and at risk of losing long-term Western support that has been vital to its survival.
The deaths of more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local authorities, have revived global calls for Palestinian statehood and put Israel at odds with a solidifying international consensus.
Once recovered from the initial shock of the Hamas breakthrough and murderous spree on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s military has delivered a succession of crippling blows to the entire constellation of its strategic foes.
Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have been decapitated, the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed, and Iran’s military leadership, missile and nuclear programs have been badly damaged.
“Regionally, Israel is under less threat than it was two years ago,” said Shalom Lipner, a fellow at the Atlantic Council who served as an adviser to several Israeli prime ministers. “But internationally, it’s between a rock and a hard place, and the long-term trends are not working in its favor.”
Anger at Israel has spread from the Muslim world to Europe and increasingly the U.S., where large parts of the Democratic Party and a growing part of the MAGA movement have now turned against American assistance to Israel.
While President Trump has remained supportive, Israel’s new isolation has given him unusual leverage—a power that he has already exercised to block plans for annexing the West Bank, to make Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologize for a strike on Qatar, and to make Israel acquiesce to the latest Gaza cease-fire plan.
This alienation of Israel’s erstwhile friends around the world stands to erode, in a potentially lasting way, not only the standing of Netanyahu and his successors but also the long-term viability of Israel’s founding project.
From American university campuses to European high schools, solidarity with the Palestinian cause—and hostility to Zionism—have become the political markers of a new generation.
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Saudi Arabia’s recent security pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan, as well as tighter cooperation between Arab nations and Turkey are all part of that regional response to the Israeli military strength, said retired British Air Marshal Martin Sampson, who heads the Middle East office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and served as the U.K. government defense adviser to the Middle East.
“You see the development of beginnings of relationships with Iran and of sympathy for Iran over Israel,” he said. “The region never wanted a single dominant power in the region. They always thought it was going to be Iran, and now they’ve got one and it’s Israel. And Israel is a regional dominant power that freely exercises its hard-power capabilities.”
Set to launch in October 2025, the hub will promote knowledge exchange, capacity building, and joint digital solutions. The minister praised GO's contributions to AI, cybersecurity, and data-driven technologies, aligning with Pakistan’s "Digital Nation Vision" to become a regional tech leader.
Recent analyses suggest the September 2025 Pakistan-Saudi defense pact significantly involves China, given Beijing's deep military and economic ties with Islamabad and strengthening relations with Riyadh. The deal reflects a multipolar shift in which Saudi Arabia is diversifying its security partnerships beyond the United States.
China's involvement
While China is not a formal party to the pact, its extensive cooperation with Pakistan and evolving relationship with Saudi Arabia bring it into the equation in several key ways:
Military supply chain: China is Pakistan's primary arms supplier, accounting for 81% of its imports from 2020 to 2024. Pakistan's military, which trains Saudi forces, operates sophisticated Chinese equipment, including the J-35 stealth fighter and HQ-19 air defense systems offered in a recent arms deal.
Defense industrial ties: Saudi Arabia has a long-term goal of localizing defense production under its Vision 2030 plan. Since Pakistan has co-produced defense systems with China, Saudi Arabia could invest as a financier or a buyer in joint Pakistan-China defense platforms.
Nuclear energy and proliferation: The pact has intensified concerns that China could enable Saudi nuclear ambitions. Though China denies it, Beijing has a history of assisting Saudi Arabia's missile program and recently signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear energy security.
Economic influence: As a top trading partner and oil customer for both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, China gains increased economic influence from the pact. For instance, Saudi Arabia could purchase Chinese nuclear reactors to free up more oil for export.
Strategic hedging: By formalizing a defense partnership with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its strategic relationships and creating more independence from the U.S.. This aligns with Riyadh's increasingly multi-aligned foreign policy, which includes stronger ties with China.
Implications and future considerations
Shifting regional dynamics: The pact is seen by some as a silent victory for Beijing, expanding its influence in the Middle East. China views these diversified partnerships positively, which could expand its arms sales and influence across the region.
Impact on the U.S.: The agreement highlights Saudi Arabia's growing wariness of U.S. reliability as a security guarantor. Some U.S. analysts have argued that Washington should tolerate this arrangement, as it allows regional actors to hedge against rivals without America having to spend more.
Multipolarity: Overall, the pact is part of a broader trend of multipolarity, in which countries like Saudi Arabia are balancing their traditional alliances with new partnerships. It further cements China as a significant player in the Middle East.
By Bilal Khan
A quiet update to a US Department of Defense contract has ignited speculation across the defense world. While the line item is small, its strategic implications are enormous, signaling not only a quantum leap in the Pakistan Air Force’s combat capability but also a potential revival of a new-build F-16 sale. This isn’t just about a missile; it’s about a fundamental recalibration of US policy in South Asia.
Listen to the full episode on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform.
https://youtu.be/jUu8HNSY_So
https://quwa.org/podcasts/defence-uncut/the-quiet-approval-of-new-amraam-missiles-may-revive-pakistans-f-16-program-10-09-2025/
A Major Leap in the Pakistani F-16 Fleet’s Capabilities
The cFor the PAF, access to the AIM-120C-8 (or its US Navy designation, AIM-120D) represents the most significant upgrade to its beyond-visual-range (BVR) capability in over a decade. This variant is a generational leap over the AIM-120C-5s Pakistan acquired with its Block 52 F-16s. The new missile features:
A Two-Way Datalink: Unlike older AMRAAMs, which stop receiving updates from the launch aircraft after a certain point, the AIM-120C-8/D maintains continuous communication, allowing for real-time course corrections until impact.
Enhanced Electronic Counter-Countermeasures (ECCM): The missile offers significantly improved resistance to jamming in a contested electronic warfare environment.
Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC): This is the true game-changer. The AIM-120C-8/D allows for “off-board guidance,” where one aircraft can launch the missile and another — a “sensor node” in a better tactical position – can guide it to the target.
This CEC capability could revolutionize the PAF’s air combat doctrine. It creates the potential for a networked battlespace where upgraded F-16V fighters act as command-and-control nodes, guiding missiles launched by older F-16 A/B MLU aircraft acting as “missile trucks”. This force-multiplier effect would dramatically increase the lethality and survivability of the entire F-16 fleet.
The Inevitable Link to New F-16s
While the new AMRAAMs can technically be fired by the PAF’s existing F-16s, doing so would severely underutilize their advanced capabilities. The older mechanically scanned radars and mission computers on the PAF’s fleet lack the processing power and bandwidth to fully exploit the two-way datalink and CEC functions.
This reality makes an F-16 upgrade — at minimum, bringing the 18 Block 52s to the latest F-16V (Block 72) standard — a near certainty. However, the strategic context suggests a far more ambitious procurement is on the table. Every other foreign nation included in this AMRAAM contract is either a current operator of new-build US fighters or is being actively marketed to. It is highly probable that Washington has linked access to this cutting-edge missile to a purchase of new-build F-16s, a deal that would secure American jobs and extend the F-16 production line for years—a key political win for any US administration.
For the PAF, a follow-on order of 18 to 36 new F-16 Block-72 fighters would be the logical fulfillment of its original plans from the 2000s, which were curtailed by fiscal constraints and shifting geopolitics.
An expanded fleet of F-16s is the only platform in the PAF’s inventory capable of serving as a credible heavy multi-role strike fighter, a necessary complement to the air-superiority-focused J-10C and the lightweight JF-17.
https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2025-10-19/segment/01
Pakistan has drawbacks as an ally, but it also has real attractions for the U.S. As the analyst Uzair Younus argues, the thaw in relations may have also resulted from a realization in the U.S. that Pakistan is a competent military partner that can play a security role in the Middle East. In the skirmish in May, Pakistan was able to not just deflect elements of India's air attack, but reportedly shot down several Indian fighter jets.
Pakistan's military ability clearly influenced Saudi Arabia, which just signed a mutual defense pact with the country. The future of U.S. Pakistan relations, particularly after Trump, is unclear. But for now, the generals in Islamabad have shown themselves surprisingly enterprising and flexible in knowing how to woo and win over the president of the United States.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2620049/pakistan
The statement comes after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s meeting with Qatar’s minister of commerce and industry in Islamabad
Sharif invites Qatari investors to explore new avenues of bilateral collaboration in energy, agriculture, food security, IT and tourism
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Qatar have reaffirmed their commitment to deepening economic cooperation and translating shared trade and investment goals into “tangible outcomes,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said on Friday.
The statement came after Sharif’s meeting with Qatari Commerce and Industry Minister Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al-Thani, who is on a visit to Pakistan to co-chair the 6th session of Pakistan-Qatar Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC).
During the meeting, PM Sharif expressed satisfaction at the positive trajectory of Pakistan-Qatar relations, anchored in shared faith, values and mutual respect, appreciating Doha’s role as an important partner and an influential mediator.
The prime minister underscored the importance of enhancing bilateral trade and investment cooperation between the two countries, emphasizing opportunities in energy, agriculture, food security, information technology, tourism and infrastructure development.
“He highlighted Pakistan’s investor-friendly policies and invited Qatari investors to explore new avenues of collaboration,” Sharif’s office said.
“Both sides agreed to continue close coordination to translate shared understandings into tangible outcomes, including greater facilitation for business-to-business linkages and investment projects.”
The development came a day after Pakistan and Qatar have signed a protocol that commits both nations to realize Doha’s $3 billion investment in Pakistan’s key sectors, the Pakistani economic affairs ministry said.
In 2022, the Qatari emir’s office had said that the Qatar Investment Authority aims to invest $3 billion in Pakistan to support the South Asian nation’s cash-strapped economy, focusing on Pakistan’s transport, civil aviation, education, health, culture, media, communications, information technology and labor sectors.
The agreement was signed between Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan and his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al Thani, during the JMC meeting, the economic affairs ministry said.
Qatar will enhance cooperation in Pakistan’s public transport system including rail, bus and metro networks and support the adoption of electric vehicles in the country, according to the protocol. Pakistan and Qatar’s aviation authorities will meet early next year to further strengthen cooperation, it added. The protocol also included a memorandum of understanding between Pakistan and Qatar’s education ministries to enhance technical skills development.
Pakistan shares cordial ties with Qatar rooted in economic cooperation, defense, shared values, faith and culture. Qatar hosts a large Pakistani workforce and this month facilitated dialogue that resulted in a ceasefire with Afghanistan after days of skirmishes along their border.
During his meeting with PM Sharif, the Qatari commerce minister reaffirmed Doha’s commitment to further deepen economic engagement with Pakistan, according to the Pakistan PM’s office.
“He noted that the 6th session of the JMC provided an important platform to review existing cooperation and identify new initiatives to advance mutually beneficial partnerships,” Sharif’s office said.
“The prime minister conveyed Pakistan’s deep appreciation for Qatar’s consistent support on regional and global issues and reiterated Pakistan’s desire to strengthen collaboration at regional and multilateral fora.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2617952/business-economy
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is planning to double its manpower exports to Saudi Arabia after the signing of a landmark defense deal between the two countries last month, officials told Arab News on Monday.
The country’s human resource exports to Saudi Arabia have already witnessed a steady rise over the past five years, according to the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment. Pakistan sent 1.88 million workers to Saudi Arabia between 2020 and 2024, up 21 percent from 1.56 million in 2015–2019.
Remittances from the Kingdom rose from $7.39 billion in 2020 to $8.59 billion in 2024, reflecting steady demand for Pakistani labor. In contrast, inflows from the United Arab Emirates fluctuated between $5.8 billion and $6.8 billion during the same period, while those from Qatar remained below $1 billion annually, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.
In September, both countries signed a landmark defense pact that is meant to enhance joint deterrence and deepen decades of military and security cooperation. Top Pakistani government officials, including National Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer, have said Islamabad and Riyadh will sign a wide-ranging economic pact in the follow up of the defense deal.
“The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact will have a great impact on manpower export. Current average export is around half a million workers per year, and from next year, we hope to double it to one million,” said Gul Akbar, a senior director at the BEOE.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2620602/saudi-arabia
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reach agreement during Riyadh meeting
Strategic economic, trade, investment and development projects to be discussed
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have agreed to launch an economic cooperation framework to strengthen trade and investment relations.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif made the agreement during a meeting in Riyadh on Monday.
A joint statement said the framework was based on the two countries’ shared economic interests and depth of their historic partnership.
“As part of the framework, several strategic and high-impact projects will be discussed in the economic, trade, investment and development fields,” it said.
These projects will help strengthen cooperation between the two governments, “enhancing the pivotal role of the private sector and increasing trade exchange between the two countries.”
The agreement will prioritize energy, industry, mining, information technology, tourism, agriculture and food security.
The two countries have already signed a Memorandum of Understanding for an electricity interconnection project.
“This framework represents an extension of both countries’ efforts to strengthen their fraternal relations and reaffirms their shared vision toward building a sustainable partnership across various economic, trade and investment fields,” the statement said.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have enjoyed close relations for decades but have moved to broaden cooperation in recent years.
The crown prince and prime minister signed a landmark defense agreement last month which said aggression against either country represented aggression against both.
Last year, the two countries signed 34 MoUs worth $2.8 billion across multiple sectors.
1,
This thread is From a WikiLeaks cable dated January 24, 2007,
documenting a meeting between Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and now President of the UAE, and R. Nicholas Burns, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs at
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Warfare Analysis
@warfareanalysis
·
Oct 31
2, MBZ views on free elections: “Middle East is not California”
"MBZ: if we want to make peace." In "The Middle East," he insisted, "is not
California." In the post 9/11 world "in any Muslim country you will
see the same result." While members of the U.S. Congress and
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Warfare Analysis
@warfareanalysis
·
Oct 31
3, MBZ views on Quran schools: MBZ calls Quran schools “some Taliban schools”
“Correcting the situation required education, according to MbZ, a process that will take 25 to 50 years of focused effort to turn around deeply-rooted cultural phenomena.
In the western part of
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Warfare Analysis
4, MBZ: Muslims should never have free elections, We should worry about 3 Islamic counties: Egypt 🇪🇬, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 , and Pakistan 🇵🇰.
“MbZ countered that, "free elections in the Middle East" could eventually mean that the U.S. would "have to find
somewhere else to get 17 million barrels (of oil) a day."
In Iraq, MbZ said, elections had produced "a disaster."
As for the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and pressure from jihadists inspired by Iran,
he said he was not worried about the UAE, which could hold out for a
long time: "The Iranians will have a hard time coming here, but we
will lose Arab countries like Lebanon and Palestine.
Thank God for Hosni Mubarak (described as a family friend of the Al Nahyan).
If Egypt has free elections, they will elect the Muslim Brothers."
There were three large Islamic countries to worry about, according to
MbZ: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.”
https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1984515658084704702
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Warfare Analysis
@warfareanalysis
6, MBZ calls Muslim scholars “some holy man in Mecca”
“Referring to the UAE situation, MbZ opined that of the 60,000
soldier UAE armed forces and its loyalties, some 50 to 80% would
respond to a call of "some holy man in Mekkah."
He repeatedly alluded to being "stoned" by his own citizens if he pushed some
subjects too openly.
Acknowledging the prodding by the U.S. to hold elections, MbZ said the process would take at least 20 years and that focus should be on the next generation.
"When I travel to Saudi
Arabia, I meet with 80-85 year old Saudi leaders who never learned of
the internet until they were 70. There is a big gap in Saudi
Arabia." MbZ said the UAE is addressing the educational aspect of
the problem by privatizing government schools with the aim of
privatizing 25% in 5 years so that there will eventually be 0%
"talebani Quran schools."”
https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1984515669862293546
Breaking 🚨
A U.S. government commission report claims "PAKISTAN GAINED THE UPPER HAND" in the May 7–10 clash with India, and China used the brief conflict to test and showcase its advanced weapons.
deccanherald.com/india/us-panel…
https://x.com/bhavikakapoor5/status/1991209761355055422?s=61&t=mgTxrmITUbpo9NntN5677Q
————
The US panel’s report claims Pakistan’s success over India in May 7-10 clash, flags China’s use of conflict for advertising weapons The report presented to the US Congress noted that China initiated a disinformation campaign after the May 7-10 India-Pakistan conflict to hinder sales of French Rafale aircraft in favour of its own J-35s. Anirban Bhaumik
Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/india/us-panels-report-claims-pakistans-success-over-india-in-may-7-10-clash-flags-chinas-use-of-conflict-for-advertising-weapons-3803729
New Delhi: Pakistan succeeded in the four-day conflict with India between May 7 and 10, and China took advantage of the four-day military flare-up between the two South Asian neighbours to test and advertise the sophistication of its weapons, a repor... useful in the contexts of its ongoing border tensions with India and its expanding defence industry goals,” the USCC added in its report presented to the US Congress recently.
“Pakistan’s military success over India in its four-day clash showcased Chinese weaponry,” the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) noted in its latest report. “While characterisation of this conflict as a ‘proxy war’ may overstate China’s role as an instigator, Beijing opportunistically leveraged the conflict to test and advertise the sophistication of its weapons, useful in the contexts of its ongoing border tensions with India and its expanding defence industry goals,” the USCC added in its report presented to the US Congress recently.
The US commission’s claim about “Pakistan’s military success over India” contradicts the statements of the political leaders and senior defence officials in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, himself, had stated that India had showcased its capabilities during “Operation Sindoor” and brought Pakistan to its knees within a few hours.
The report presented to the US Congress noted that China’s fighter jets and air-to-air missiles had received their first combat use as Pakistan “successfully flew” them during the four-day conflict with India. “This marks the first known instance of these systems being tested in actual combat, providing the (Chinese) PLA (People’s Liberation Army) valuable data and potentially boosting the credibility of China’s defence exports,” noted the commission, created by the American Congress...
The USCC referred to the India-Pakistan conflict in its report even as President Donald Trump continued to disregard New Delhi’s rebuttals and kept reiterating his claims about brokering a ceasefire deal that ended the four-day conflict between the two South Asian neighbours. The report presented to the US Congress noted that China initiated a disinformation campaign after the May 7-10 India-Pakistan conflict to hinder sales of French Rafale aircraft in favour of its own J-35s. It noted that China had used fake social media accounts to propagate images generated by Artificial Intelligence of supposed “debris” from India’s fighter jets that Pakistan had destroyed using China’s weaponry.