Tipping Point: Pakistan Middle Class Rises to 55% of Population

Majority of the households in Pakistan now belong to the middle class, a first in Pakistan's history, according to research by Dr. Jawaid Abdul Ghani of Karachi School of Business and Leadership (KSBL).

It's an important tipping point that puts Pakistan among the top 5 countries with fastest growing middle class population in Asia-Pacific region, according to an Asian Development Bank report titled Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present, And Future. The ADB report put Pakistan's middle class growth from 1990 to 2008 at 36.5%, much faster than India's 12.5% growth in the same period.

Source: Dr. Abdul Ghani



From 2002 to 2011, the country's middle class, defined as households with daily per capita expenditures of $2-$10 in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars, grew from 32% to 55% of the population, according to a paper presented by Dr. Abdul Ghani at Karachi's Institute Business Administration's International Conference on Marketing. Dr. Ghani has cited Pakistan Standards of Living Measurement (PSLM) Surveys as source of his data.

Source: Dr. Abdul Ghani, Karachi School of Business

Growing middle class is a major driver of economic growth, as the income elasticity for durable goods and services for middle class consumers is greater than one, according to a Brookings Institution study titled The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries.



Among some of the manifestations of the rising middle class, Dr. Abdul Ghani reports dramatic increase in the ownership of television sets, refrigerators and motorcycles in households in all income deciles in Pakistan.  At the same the total household assets have nearly doubled from $387 billion in 2001-02 to $772.6 billion in 2010-11 in terms of 2005 purchasing power parity dollars.

Consumer spending in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to data compiled by Euromonitor International, a consumer research firm. Pakistan's rising middle class consumers  in major cities like Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad are driving sales of international brand name products and services.  Real estate developers and retailers are responding to it by opening new mega shopping malls such as Dolmen in Karachi and Centaurus in Islamabad.

Pakistan's transition to middle-class middle-income country over the last decade mainly during Musharraf years represents a major tipping point for the country's economy. It is likely to accelerate economic growth driven by consumption and draw greater investments in production of products and services demanded by middle class consumers. Some of it is already in evidence in booming sales of durable goods (TV sets, refrigerators, motorcycles) AND non-durables (cosmetics, shampoo, toothpaste, processed foods, etc) in Pakistan's booming FMCG sector.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Official GDP Figures Ignore Booming FMCG Sector

Musharraf Accelerated Human and Economic Development in Pakistan

Pakistan's Growing Middle Class

Pakistan's GDP Grossly Under-estimated; Shares Highly Undervalued

Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector in Pakistan

3G-4G Roll-out in Pakistan



Mobile Money Revolution in Pakistan

Comments

Riaz Haq said…
A reader has cited India's higher per capita income and HDI to challenge my contention that average Pakistanis are better off than their Indian counterparts.

The fact is that India has much bigger problems in terms of multi-dimensional poverty which includes income poverty, inequality, disease burdens and basic hygiene. India also has a huge problem of inequality relative to Pakistan. All these affect quality of life more than just average composite indicators you quote.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2014/10/multi-dimensional-poverty-index.html

One data point to note here is that median per capita income in India ($60 per month) is significantly lower than that in Pakistan ($73 per month) in 2005 PPP $. Income poverty rate (those below $1.25 per capita per day) in India is 33% vs 13% in Pakistan

http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?2

Another point to note is that agriculture value added per capita in Pakistan is about twice that in India. Agriculture employs the largest number of people in India and Pakistan.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2013/11/pakistan-leads-south-asia-in.html

India leads the world in open defecation. Disease burdens in India are much higher than in Pakistan.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2013/04/world-health-day-in-pakistan-premature.html
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan is a rapidly growing country despite a lot of political and economic challenges. However, its growth rate since 1947 has been better than the global average.
A wide range of economic reforms has resulted in a strong economic outlook.
There has been a great improvement in foreign exchange and currency reserves.
New businesses are opening up across Pakistan which is reshaping its landscape.
The GDP growth accelerated to 4.14 percent in 2013-14 and the momentum of growth is broad based, as all sectors namely agriculture, industry and services are supporting economic growth.
The per capita income in dollar terms has reached to $1,386 in 2013-14.
The agriculture sector accounts for 21.0 percent of GDP and 43.7 percent of employment. It has strong backward and forward linkages. It has four sub-sectors including: crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry.
The industrial sector contributes 20.8 percent in GDP; it is also a major source of tax
revenues for the government and also contributes significantly in the provision of job opportunities to the labor force.
The government has planned and implemented comprehensive policy measures on fast track to revive the economy.
As a result, Pakistan’s industrial sector recorded remarkable growth at 5.8 percent as compared to 1.4 percent in the previous year.
The services sector contains six sub-sectors including: transport, storage and communication; wholesale and retail trade; finance and insurance; housing services (ownership of dwellings); general government Services (public administration and defense); and other private services (social services).
The services sector has witnessed a growth rate of 4.3 percent.
The growth performance in the services sector is broad based, all components contributed positively in growth, Finance and insurance at 5.2 percent, general government services at 2.2 percent, housing services at 4.0 percent, other private services at 5.8 percent, transport, storage and communication at 3.0 percent and wholesale and retail Trade at 5.2 percent.
The three main drivers of economic growth are consumption, investment and export.
Pakistan has a consumption-oriented society, like other developing countries.
The private consumption expenditure in nominal terms reached to 80.49 percent of the GDP, whereas public consumption expenditures are 12.00 percent of GDP.
The government has launched a number of initiatives to create enabling environment in the country including steps to improve the energy situation, law and order, auction of 3G and 4G licenses, and other investment incentives for the investors.
Moody’s recent ratings in favor of Pakistan coupled with jacking up from negative to positive rating of five of its banks — Habib Bank Limited (HBL), Muslim Commercial Bank (MCB), Allied Bank Limited (ABL), United Bank Limited (UBL) and National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) — would definitely boost investor confidence.
The current government has launched a comprehensive plan to create an investment-friendly environment and to attract foreign investors to the country. As is evident, the capital market has reached new heights and emitting positive signals for restoring investor confidence.
The European Union (EU) granted Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) Plus status to Pakistan with an impressive count of 406 votes, granting Pakistani products a duty free access to the European market.
The GSP Plus status will allow almost 20 percent of Pakistani exports to enter the EU market at zero tariff and 70 percent at preferential rates. Award of GSP Plus status depicts the confidence of international markets in the excellent quality of Pakistani products.
Pakistan emerged as one of the best performers in the wake of the global financial crisis, even with a backdrop of a country which waged a costly war against militants.


http://www.arabnews.com/saudi-arabia/news/721866
Riaz Haq said…
Moody’s Raises #Pakistan Outlook as Economy Improves Under #PMLN #NawazSharif http://bloom.bg/1Bqj1ed via Kyrgyzstan Business Information​
Pakistan’s credit rating outlook was raised to positive from stable by Moody’s Investors Service, signaling an upgrade is possible for the first time since 2006 as the economy steadily improves.
The new outlook “is based on a strengthening external liquidity position, continued efforts toward fiscal consolidation, and the government’s steady progress in achieving structural reforms under the IMF program,” Moody’s analyst Anushka Shah said in a statement on Thursday.
The company maintained its non-investment-grade Caa1 foreign currency rating and said implementation of more reforms, successful completion of the International Monetary Fund program or better finances could trigger an upgrade.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is using lower oil prices, higher remittances and more consumer spending to push growth toward a seven-year high. Even so, a large budget deficit, high debt costs and dependence on external funding leaves Pakistan vulnerable to political and economic risks, Moody’s said.
When Sharif took power in May 2013, he won a $6.6 billion loan from the IMF to avert a balance-of-payments crisis. Since then, the country has cleared six program reviews and has also regained eligibility to borrow from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“Fundamentals of the country are improving,” Hedi Ben Mlouka, chief executive officer at hedge fund Duet Mena Ltd., said in a March 18 phone interview from Dubai. Even a “marginal improvement will make a very big difference and make it an attractive investor destination.”
The benchmark KSE100 stock index has rallied 56 percent since Sharif took office, and the rupee has outperformed every major global currency over the past six months.
Foreign exchange reserves have doubled in the past year to $16 billion and the IMF forecasts Pakistan’s economy to expand 4.3 percent this year, compared with the five-year average of 3.6 percent.
The nation’s central bank last week cut its benchmark interest rate to the lowest in almost 13 years as lower oil prices slowed inflation.
Riaz Haq said…
The fact that Pakistan's middle class has grown to 55% of the population from 2001 to 2010 while its GDP growth has been relatively low since 2008 is seen by some as a puzzle.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2015/03/major-tipping-point-pakistans-middle.html

There's no puzzle here that basic understanding of income distribution can not solve. Headline stories of Economist and WSJ won't help you here.

It's not the overall GDP growth and average per capita income increases but the median per capita income growth that tells you how the GDP gains are shared among the population.

So to assess the size of the middle class, it's important to look at the median per capita income, an income level that divides the top 50% from the bottom 50% of income earners.

Median income in India ($60 per month) is significantly lower than that in Pakistan ($73 per month) in 2005 PPP $ based on 2009-10 surveys.

$60 per month per capita or $2 per day per capita in India means half the population in India does not meet the ADB and WB definition of middle class in India.

http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?2

On the other hand, media income of $73 per month per capita in Pakistan means more than half of Pakistanis meet the ADB and WB definition of middle class.


Income poverty rate (those below $1.25 per capita per day) in India is 33% vs 13% in Pakistan, according to WB data on povcalNet.

Also Gini Index for India is 33 and for Pakistan 29, indicating that Pakistan has lower inequality.
Riaz Haq said…
A New #Language for #Pakistan’s Deaf. Pakistan Sign Language adds to #Urdu national and 300 regional languages http://nyti.ms/1yzwe4a

A common Indo-Pakistan sign language was in use across the subcontinent long before the 1980s, but many words and concepts in Urdu and other regional languages had no place in it. Pakistan Sign Language grew out of this need, but by the late 1990s the books and guides developed by Absa were deemed outdated and went out of print. So the family education foundation worked with deaf instructors in Punjab and Sindh, and with Rubina Tayyab, the head teacher at the Absa School, to develop a new online lexicon that now contains 5,000 words and phrases. On its website, a new video each day shows men, women, girls and boys signing a phrase with its meaning repeated in English and Urdu. Aaron Awasen, the foundation officer in daily charge of the P.S.L. project, describes this lexicon not as a definitive dictionary, but as “a portal through which Pakistan Sign Language can continue to develop.”

Making technology central is typical of the Deaf Reach system. The online tools are accompanied by a book, a CD and a phone app. Computers and televisions are prominent in classrooms, and teachers are encouraged to explore the Internet for supplementary materials.

The P.S.L. tools imprint three languages — Urdu, English and P.S.L. — on the children’s brains at the same time. They also enable relatives and others to learn P.S.L. even if they can’t attend regular training sessions. Meanwhile, a publicity campaign called “Don’t Say It, Sign It” shows Pakistani celebrities like the filmmaker Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy and the cricket star Shahid Afridi signing simple phrases in short online video clips, in an effort to remove the stigma of “otherness” and incapacity from the common perception of the deaf.

Ten thousand copies of the organization’s dictionary and DVDs have been distributed across Pakistan, and a second edition is in print. Next, the foundation will send “deaf leaders” to 25 cities to meet with their deaf communities and provide materials for smaller villages. By distributing 18,000 P.S.L. books and 7,000 DVD sets, the organization hopes this first phase of its project will affect 150,000 people.

In a country like Pakistan, where so many other languages and communities jostle for space, and a walk down any street reveals a modern-day Tower of Babel, what does it mean to give an entire community its own language? If “a loss of language is a loss of culture,” as Mr. Awasen says, then the gain of a language is a gain in culture. So empowering the deaf can only strengthen Pakistan’s social fabric; the deaf community will be proud to take its rightful position within the constellation of diversity that is one of Pakistan’s greatest assets.
Riaz Haq said…
Excerpt of Wall Street Journal interview with President of Yamaha Motors in Japan:

WSJ: What about in South Asia?
Mr. Yanagi: We want to expand business in Pakistan and Bangladesh as soon as possible. We had a production venture in Pakistan but we dissolved it five years ago. We are now planning to begin local production again, on our own this time.

In Bangladesh, we import motorcycles from our plant in India on a small scale, but we are studying now the best way of running operations because of rising tariff barrier there.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304520704579128733162622954
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan middle class world's 18th largest: report. #Pakistan 5.7% vs #India 3% of population. #China 1st, #US 2nd http://tribune.com.pk/story/973649/pakistan-has-18th-largest-middle-class-in-the-world-report/ …

Pakistan’s middle class consists of over 6.27 million people, according to Credit Suisse, a global financial services company.

In its Global Wealth Report 2015 released on Oct 13, Credit Suisse said Pakistan has the 18th largest middle class worldwide.

The study revealed that 14% of world adults constituted the middle class in 2015 and held 32% of world wealth. The share of middle-class adults in Pakistan’s total adult population of 111 million was 5.7% in 2015 as opposed to India’s 3% and Australia’s 66% in 2015.

Middle-class Pakistani adults constituted 0.9% of the worldwide middle-class population. The highest concentration of middle-class population in 2015 was in China (108.7 million), followed by the United States (91.8 million) and Japan (62 million).

Defining ‘middle class’

Economists use a variety of methods, such as income and standard of living, to define what constitutes the middle class. Credit Suisse uses the measure of ‘personal wealth’ – or a ‘wealth band’ instead of an ‘income range’ – to determine the size and wealth of the middle class around the world.

Taking the United States as the benchmark country, Credit Suisse considers an adult to be part of the middle class if they have wealth between $50,000 and $500,000 valued at mid-2015 prices.

Credit Suisse came up with the minimum and maximum figures for the US middle-class wealth band based on its median earnings and the amount of capital a person close to retirement age needs to purchase an annuity paying the median wage for the remainder of their life.

For the rest of the countries, Credit Suisse uses the IMF series of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) values to derive equivalent middle-class wealth bounds in local terms.

Being a lower per-capita country, Pakistan has lower prices and consequently a reduced middle-class threshold. To be a member of the middle class in 2015, according to Credit Suisse, a Pakistani adult must have wealth of at least $14,413.

In terms of the local currency that buys one dollar for Rs104 these days, a Pakistani adult should be considered part of the middle class if they have wealth of between Rs1.5 million and Rs15 million.

With $14,413, Pakistan has the third lowest “middle-class lower bound wealth” for 2015, followed by India ($13,662) and Ukraine ($11,258). This suggests Pakistan has lower prices in general, which enables people to join the middle class by crossing a relatively lower threshold of wealth band.

Wealth in Pakistan

According to Credit Suisse, total wealth in Pakistan amounted to $495 billion in 2015. Given that the figure stood at $170 billion in 2000, total wealth in Pakistan has increased at an annualised rate of 7.4% for the last 15 years.

Total wealth of the world increased on average by 5.2% annually over the same 15-year period, the report shows.

A little more than 90% Pakistani adults had wealth less than $10,000 in 2015. The share of Pakistani adults with wealth between $10,000 and $100,000 in 2015 was 9.8% while only 0.1% adults owned wealth in the range of $100,000 and $1 million, the report revealed.


http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=C26E3824-E868-56E0-CCA04D4BB9B9ADD5
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan's Proper #Urbanization, Estimated at 55% Now, Can Yield Big Economic Benefits for its Rapid Urbanization http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/12/05/proper-urbanization-yield-economic-benefits-pakistan …

Urbanization provides Pakistan with the potential to transform its economy to join the ranks of richer nations, but the country, like others in South Asia, has so far struggled to make the most of that opportunity, says a new World Bank report.

Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability was presented at the third Pakistan Urban Forum. Difficulty in dealing with the pressures that increased urban populations put on infrastructure, basic services, land, housing and the environment has fostered what the report calls “messy and hidden” urbanization in Pakistan and throughout the region. This, in turn, has helped to constrain Pakistan’s full realization of the prosperity and livability benefits of urbanization.

“Properly managed urbanization can enhance both the prosperity and livability of cities,” says, Peter Ellis, Lead Urban Economist at the World Bank. “This is certainly the case for Pakistan, which is the most urbanized large country in South Asia and derives so much of its economic growth from cities.”

Estimates indicate that cities generate up to 78 percent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product and the government’s Vision 2025 places a premium on urban job growth. Planning ahead for urban growth can help create vibrant and productive cities that fuel the country’s growth, but that will require dealing with the problems posed by the country’s messy and hidden urbanization to date.

Messy urbanization in Pakistan is reflected in the existence of low-density sprawl and the fact that cities are growing outward beyond administrative boundaries, creating challenges for planning, transportation and the provision of public services. It also reflected in the widespread existence of poverty and slums. In Pakistan in 2010, about one in eight urban dwellers lived below the national poverty line and an estimated 46.6 percent of the urban population lived in slums.

Hidden urbanization, the report said, stems from official national statistics understating the share of the population living in areas with urban traits. Officially, 36 percent of Pakistanis lived in urban settlements in 2010 but the World Bank estimates that the actual share of the population living in areas with urban characteristics may be as high as 55 percent. Acknowledging the true extent of urban areas can help to facilitate better planning and metropolitan management.

Failure to address these problems can make cities less livable. Pakistan faced an urban housing shortage of approximately 4.4 million units in 2010. The 2015 livability index of the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked Karachi 135th out of 140 cities; Dhaka was the only major city in South Asia with a lower ranking.

Since the turn of the century, Pakistan has seen a net decline in multi-city agglomerations – defined as continuously lit belts of urbanization containing two or more cities with a population each in excess of 100,000 – as the formation of new agglomerations was outpaced by the merging of existing ones. The Lahore agglomeration, for example, expanded to absorb those of Chiniot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Lalamusa and Sialkot. In fact, the Lahore agglomeration meets its Delhi equivalent to form one continuously lit belt with an estimated population of 73.4 million, slightly less than the population of Turkey.

Riaz Haq said…
Dailytimes | #Motorcycle production in #Pakistan reached nearly 2m per annum in 2015 http://go.shr.lc/1sZnPv1 via @Shareaholic

Lack of adequate transportation infrastructure, higher inflation and poor economy made the low-powered vehicles apex priority of Pakistanis as two-wheeler production increased by 10% to 19, 12,944 units in 2015.



"Lower oil prices and improved business environment has provided a much needed boost to motorcycle industry in the outgoing year as production went up significantly due to rising demand," said Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers (APMA) Chairman Mohammad Sabir Shaikh.



He said that the government has to end the cartelisation of Japanese car and motorcycle assemblers in order to flourish the local industry otherwise the industry would remain on sluggish trajectory in coming decades as well.



He urged the government to abolish imports regime and duty structure for various motorcycles parts, as the duty on imported parts should be the same at 25 % custom duty instead of existing five different structures.



Shaikh said the industry has enough capability to cater to the rising demand of two-wheelers by producing more than 4 million motorcycles per year. However, he added that the government's apathetic attitude towards this dynamic sector has put the industry on a slow track, which has restricted production to only 2 million per annum.



"About half of the parts of motorcycles are being made in Pakistan and half of them are imported from different countries while the local industry is capable to make full production if the government patronises the sector," Sheikh said, adding that the domestic motorcycle industry now completely dominates the local market and not even a single motorcycle has been imported since 2007-08.



Detailed assessment of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) latest data reveals that the motorcycle production including locally made Japanese brand and Chinese made imported motorcycles' brand stood at 1,912,944 units in the 2015, registering 10% growth over the same period of last year to 1,743,039 units. In December 2015, total 156,415 motorcycles were produced in the country, registering 17% growth over the production of 134,230 motorcycles in December 2014.

Recently, Atlas Honda Limited has announced an investment of $100 million in the expansion of its motorcycle operations in Pakistan. The first motorcycle produced from the new line will arrive in the market by the beginning of October 2016. The expansion will lead to the generation of 1,800 direct jobs and 5,000 jobs at associated companies and parts manufacturers.



Shaikh told Daily Times that around 4 million of motorcycles are sold illegally in Pakistan due to which the national kitty is being deprived of huge revenue in terms of taxation. "Due to this lack of concern by law enforcement agencies, the national kitty is continuously missing huge revenue in terms of taxes and duties as many local motorcycles assemblers do not show sale of unregistered motorcycles in tax documents," he added.



The motorcycle production in the country is being run by about 100 motorcycle assemblers, including one dozen cottage manufactures, which produce less than 1,000 units.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan’s Middle Class Soars as Stability Returns - WSJ. #economy #middleclass
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistans-middle-class-soars-as-stability-returns-1485945001

Pakistan, often in the headlines for terrorism, coups and poverty, has developed something else in recent years: a burgeoning middle class that is fueling economic growth and bolstering a fragile democracy.

The transformation is evident in Jamil Abbas, a tailor of women’s clothing whose 15 years of work has paid off with two children in private school and small luxuries like a refrigerator and a washing machine.

For companies like the Swiss food maker Nestlé SA, such hungry consumers signal a sea-change.

“Pakistan is entering the hot zone,” said Bruno Olierhoek, Nestlé’s CEO for Pakistan, saying the country appears to be at a tipping point of exploding demand. Nestlé’s sales in Pakistan have doubled in the past five years to $1 billion.

Although often overshadowed by giant neighbors India and China, Pakistan is the sixth most-populated country, with 200 million people. And now, major progress in the country’s security, economic and political environments have helped create the stability for a thriving middle class.

An unpublished study last year that measured living standards, from Pakistani market research firm Aftab Associates, found that 38% of the country is middle class, while a further 4% is upper class. That’s a combined 84 million people—roughly equivalent to the entire populations of Germany or Turkey.

Such households are likely to have a motorcycle, color TV, refrigerator, washing machine and at least one member who has completed school up to the age of 16, the study found. Official figures show that the proportion of households that own a motorcycle soared to 34% in 2014 from 4% in 1991, and a washing machine to 47% from 13% over that same period. These trends are also attracting international business.

In December, Royal FrieslandCampina NV, a Dutch dairy company, paid $461 million to buy control of Engro Foods, a Pakistani packaged milk producer in a country where most milk is sold unpasteurized from open milk containers.

“What we see is consumer spending is rising and a middle class coming up,” said Hans Laarakker, Engro’s new chief executive.

Late last year, China’s Shanghai Electric Power agreed to pay $1.8 billion for a majority of Karachi’s electric supply company; Turkish electrical appliance maker Arçelik paid $258 million for a Pakistani appliance maker, Dawlance, saying Pakistan has an “increasingly prosperous working and middle class”; and French car maker Renault SA said it was seeking to set up a plant in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, during the past three years, deaths from terrorist attacks have fallen by two-thirds, as the army battles jihadists. Economic growth reached an eight-year high of nearly 5% in the past financial year, and China has begun a multibillion-dollar infrastructure investment program. The Karachi stock market rose 46% last year and continues to soar.

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In the developing world, the ability to purchase durable goods such as motorcycles—which itself can lead to new opportunities in employment, education and leisure—is generally viewed as an indicator of a middle class lifestyle. Motorcycle purchases soared in Pakistan to 2 million a year now from 95,000 in 2000, leading Honda Motor Co. to double its production capacity there. Buyers of Honda’s cheapest motorcycle typically earn between just $200 and $300 a month, which would put them well below the poverty line in the West, but here that gives them disposable income.

“All these big companies globally, if they’re not looking at Pakistan, need to look at Pakistan, because it’s a huge consumption economy emerging,” said Saquib Shirazi, chief executive of Honda’s Pakistan joint venture.


Riaz Haq said…
Int'l #consumer giant #ProctorGamble CEO expresses strong commitment to #Pakistan #economy http://pakobserver.net/pg-ceo-expresses-strong-commitment-to-pakistan-economy/ … via @Pakistan Observer

P&G Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, David Taylor met the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Mohammad Nawaz Sharif in Davos on the sidelines of the recent World Economic Forum confirming P&G’s commitment to serve Pakistani consumers and expressing optimism about the potential and business climate of Pakistan. David Taylor shared with the Prime Minister facts about P&G’s operations in Pakistan which has enabled P&G to celebrate 25 years of its presence in the country with great success.
He said P&G’s presence in Pakistan is strong and getting stronger. Since its first shipment in Pakistan in August 1991, P&G has grown to be amongst the top fast moving consumer goods companies in Pakistan and has launched premium quality brands which are amongst leading household names in their categories. “For the past 25 years, we have improved Pakistani lives through P&G’s iconic and consumer-preferred brands, our investment in local manufacturing facilities, the creation of direct and indirect employment, and our contributions to help communities in need.
With the potential Pakistan has to offer as well as the strong partnership we enjoy with the both the Government of Pakistan and local retailers, we remain committed to serving Pakistani consumers in the years ahead.”
Riaz Haq said…
In #Pakistan, it's middle class rising. #Urbanization #MiddleClass #genderequity

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/in-pakistan-its-middle-class-rising/article17378526.ece

The general perception still, and unfortunately, held by many people, foreigners and Pakistanis, is that Pakistan is largely an agricultural, rural economy, where “feudals” dominate the economic, social, and particularly political space. Nothing could be further from this outdated, false framing of Pakistan’s political economy. Perhaps the single most significant consequence of the social and structural transformation under way for the last two decades has been the rise and consolidation of a Pakistani middle class, both rural, but especially, urban.

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While a definition, and hence estimation of Pakistan’s middle class, or middle classes, has not been easy, the term has acquired much prominence in social and anecdotal references. Increasing references to the middle class — durmiana tubqa — both as a political category but also as an economic one, occur more regularly in the media. Often, Pakistan’s middle class is referred to by the consumer goods that it has increasingly been purchasing, from washing machines to motorcycles. But more importantly, the term is used for those having an active political constituency and presence. In many ways, the terms used in India after Narendra Modi’s 2014 election, of an “aspiring” or “aspirational” class — also somewhat vague but nevertheless signifying some political and developmentalist notion — have also found some currency in Pakistan

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Data based on social, economic and spatial categories all support this argument. While literacy rates in Pakistan have risen to around 60%, perhaps more important has been the significant rise in girls’ literacy and in their education. Their enrolment at the primary school level, while still less than it is for boys, is rising faster than it is for boys. What is even more surprising is that this pattern is reinforced even for middle level education where, between 2002-03 and 2012-13, there had been an increase by as much as 54% when compared to 26% for that of boys. At the secondary level, again unexpectedly, girls’ participation has increased by 53% over the decade, about the same as it has for boys. While boys outnumber girls in school, girls are catching up. In 2014-15, it was estimated that there were more girls enrolled in Pakistan’s universities than boys — 52% and 48%, respectively. Pakistan’s middle class has realised the significance of girls’ education, even up to the college and university level.

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In spatial terms, most social scientists would agree that Pakistan is almost all, or at least predominantly, urban rather than rural, even though such categories are difficult to concretise. Research in Pakistan has revealed that at least 70% of Pakistanis live in urban or urbanising settlements, and not in rural settlements, whatever they are. Using data about access to urban facilities and services such as electricity, education, transport and communication connectivity, this is a low estimate. Moreover, even in so-called “rural” and agricultural settlements, data show that around 60% or more of incomes accrue from non-agricultural sources such as remittances and services. Clearly, whatever the rural is, it is no longer agricultural. Numerous other sets of statistics would enhance the middle class thesis in Pakistan.
Riaz Haq said…
#Automobile companies eye production in #Pakistan as local market accelerates. #manufacturing #economy https://www.ft.com/content/328ca8ae-f34a-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

When Naeem Khan went into his local automobile dealer in Karachi to replace his five-year-old taxi with a rickshaw, he was not expecting to leave with a brand new air-conditioned car instead.

But after getting a financing package that was cheaper than he expected, Mr Khan became one of an increasing number of Pakistanis who have recently bought vehicles they previously only dreamt of owning.

The national surge in sales has prompted three global carmakers to commit in the past few months to starting production in Pakistan, potentially doubling the number of foreign carmakers in the country.

“The dealer told me it was the right time to get a loan to buy a car,” says Mr Khan. “Five years ago he said he would have told me to buy a second-hand car or a rickshaw, but today I could afford to buy a new car.”

Pakistan’s car market is still small, and dominated by the three Japanese brands that have local manufacturing plants: Toyota, Honda and Suzuki. The trio made all but seven of the country’s domestically manufactured cars in 2015-16, according to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers’ Association, though the figures are just a fraction of their total global car sales.

In the past, analysts say, manufacturers have been put off by the country’s relative poverty, as well as political instability and concerns about security.


But in the past few months, France’s Renault and both Hyundai of South Korea and its affiliate Kia have announced they will soon start assemblies in Pakistan, in partnership with local companies. It marks a return for Kia and Hyundai, which left in the previous decade when their local partner suffered financial problems.

The new and returning entrants are being drawn in by several factors. 

The first is both the scale of the potential market in a country of 200m people, as well as the rate at which it is already growing. In 2012-13, carmakers sold 118,830 cars in Pakistan. By 2015-16, that had risen 52 per cent to 181,145.

Analysts say the surge has left Toyota, Honda and Suzuki struggling to meet demand with their customers sometimes forced to wait as long as five months before their cars are delivered.

Yong Sohn, general manager at the Hyundai group, says: “Population and growth-wise, Pakistan is very promising.”

Renault declined to talk about its plans while it is in negotiation with local partners.

Part of the reason for the rise in car sales is that Pakistanis are getting richer. Between 2010 and 2015, the amount each person earned per year rose from $4,370 to $5,320 as measured in gross national income per capita at purchasing power parity.


------


That trend is expected to continue, partly helped by China’s plans to invest more than $52bn in Pakistan’s infrastructure under the “One Belt, One Road” project. Hyundai forecasts that, consequently, car sales in Pakistan will hit 300,000 a year by 2020.

Just as importantly, say analysts, has been the corresponding fall in interest rates. Since September 2000, the rate at which banks can borrow from the Pakistan central bank has fallen from 13 per cent to 6.25 per cent.

Saleem Memon, who sells finance packages for carsin central Karachi, says: “A few years ago, customers sometimes paid 16 or 17 per cent in annual interest rates. Now, if they are lucky, they can get a good deal for around 11 per cent.”

Another factor drawing carmakers to Pakistan is that security has begun to improve thanks to a two-year campaign by the army. Mr Khan remembers days when he and other taxi driverswere routinely stopped at gunpoint by armed extortionists. “The streets are now safe and people feel comfortable driving till late at night,” he says.

Third, the government has drawn up policies aimed at attracting carmakers, such as cutting the duties applicable to parts shipped from abroad and making it easier to find a site to build a plant.


Riaz Haq said…
From being world leader in surveys, #India is now facing a serious #data problem: NSS #GDP estimate half of CSO's

http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/from-being-world-leader-in-surveys-india-is-now-facing-a-serious-data-problem/

The National Sample Survey (NSS), when launched by the NSSO in 1949, was the most ambitious household survey in the world, covering over 1,800 villages and over 100,000 households across India. The methods used by the NSS became the standard for household surveys the world over.

For example, the use of inter-penetrating samples — essentially, two independent samples drawn from the same population — to test the reliability of the survey results, was developed by Mahalanobis in a 1936 paper and remains a standard tool for survey design. The Living Standard Measurement Surveys the World Bank still carries out in many countries are a direct descendent of the NSS.


We quibble about whether growth was 7.1% or 7.4%, ignoring the fact that our two main sources of official consumption data, the NSS and the GDP data produced by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), now tell entirely different stories.
If you believe the NSS, GDP could be just about half of what it is according to the CSO. There are occasional academic debates about which one is correct, which no one in power pays any attention to. And yet, it is almost surely true that both estimates (and their growth rates) are off by a huge margin. More worrying, this divergence has been known for nearly 50 years (though it has grown a lot).

And though we are occasionally told that the NSS is understaffed, or that no one knows where the CSO got a particular number, there is absolutely no political interest in improving things. From being the world leader in surveys, we are now one of the countries with a serious data problem while people talk about the really good data you can get in Indonesia or Brazil or even Pakistan.
Riaz Haq said…
Foodpanda generates additional Rs1bn for Pakistan's food delivery market

https://www.dawn.com/news/1281787

Foodpanda, Pakistan’s leading food delivery app, estimates that it has generated a staggering one billion rupees in additional sales for the restaurant industry in the last 12 months.

Along with growing adaptation of online service offerings in Pakistan, Foodpanda has accelerated the switch from offline food ordering to online ordering through its website and mobile app, benefiting both its customers and restaurant partners.

Nauman Sikandar, CEO of foodpanda Pakistan notes:

"Over the last three years we have helped customers to realise that they can spend their valuable time pursuing what they love, rather than preparing food at home. We have partnered with thousands of professional chefs at restaurants who prepare the most delicious meals of your choice for you, along with the convenience of having it delivered right to your doorstep."

He further adds:

“I am a foodie at heart and order from my favorite restaurants almost every day.I used to make tons of telephone calls each month to restaurants and the overall process was extremely painful! Finding the correct telephone number, reading out my order from a leaflet, communicating my address, and then the frustrating moment when I realise that they misunderstood my order through the phone."

"With Foodpanda, you simply log on to our app, select or discover your favourite restaurant and place your order with a few clicks. The app remembers all your details, so you only enter them the first time. Now I can place an order at my favorite restaurant within 30 seconds."

Foodpanda estimates over 7500+ restaurants established all across Pakistan, which it aims to add to its portfolio over the next few years.

Last year, the company grew its restaurant inventory to over 1,000 restaurants which is a 360 per cent increase compared to the previous 12 months.
Next to the local neighbourhood favourites, Foodpanda signed partnerships with national restaurant chains, such as Nando’s, McDonald’s, Sarpino’s and Ginsoy.

Over the last few years, Foodpanda has accelerated the growth of the food delivery market to around 20pc year on year, compared to original growth levels of around 7pc.

Raza Pirbhai, CEO of KFC remarks, "Foodpanda as a concept has taken Pakistanis into the future, not only from the customer point of view but also from the business end. With delivery being the fastest growing channel, KFC Pakistan has seen a rapid growth pattern in its online sales which is doubling over time."

"Together with foodpanda we plan to take KFC to every household in Pakistan over the next few months."

The figures in the following infographic represent Pakistan’s enriched and rapidly growing food ordering market and shows that foodpanda is the pioneer leading explosive growth and improvements in the industry.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan’s middle class continues to grow at rapid pace - The Express Tribune

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1398602/pakistans-middle-class-continues-grow-rapid-pace/


KARACHI: The country’s middle class is experiencing a rapid growth, which is evident from the rising demand for consumer durables, education and health, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The central bank, in its latest report on the state of economy, said that the growth in the consumption pattern in the country is indicative of a budding economy.

“Several indicators show rising consumer demand in the country. These include a rise in consumer financing, an increase in the sale of consumer durables (automobiles and electronic goods) and a sharp growth in fuel consumption,” said the SBP.

“Furthermore, the IBA-SBP Consumer Confidence Index recorded its highest-ever level of 174.9 points in January 2017, showing an increase of 17 points from July 2016.”

While there are different parameters to count the number of people and households in the middle class or the middle-income group of an economy, consumer spending is one prominent barometer which provides a rough assessment.

According to prominent political economist S Akbar Zaidi, Pakistan’s middle class has grown rapidly in the last 15 to 20 years on the back of rising remittances sent home by expats and increase in foreign investment.

“The foreign investment, which came into the country after 2002, has had a trickledown effect on thousands of lives,” he said, adding that increased access to education and rising representation of people in political parties also reflected the growth in the middle class.

Zaidi said that Pakistan’s middle class is often referred to in the context of the number of consumer goods it purchases, ranging from washing machines to motorcycles.

Additionally, attempts to quantify the country’s middle class, largely based on income and the purchase of consumption goods, exhibit that 42% of the population belong to the upper and middle classes, with 38% counted as the middle class.

Middle class Pakistan

“If these numbers are correct, or even indicative in any broad sense, then 84 million Pakistanis belong to the middle and upper classes, a population size which is larger than that of Germany,” said Zaidi.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Middle East-North Africa and Pakistan Senior Economist Bilal Khan said that domestic consumption and consumer confidence are strong in the country.

“Monetary easing and lower energy prices can boost household discretionary incomes and, in this context, a strong and stable currency can also be expected to increase demand for imported consumer goods, both durables and non-durables,” he said.

On the other hand, in the central bank’s report, it was mentioned that electronic goods showed a sharp turnaround during first half (January-December) of current fiscal year, recording a growth of 14.5%, against a contraction of 8.2% during the same period of last year.

“Consumer durables like refrigerators (up 25%) and deep-freezers (up 54.4%) mainly contributed to this improved performance,” the report said.

“Furthermore, rise in energy supply in coming months, increase in consumer financing in a low interest rate environment, better market access for rural population, expansionary plans of leading players and foreign investment, all indicates a sustainable trajectory for the industry’s growth going forward,” it added.

Economic Bullshit

Separately, consumer financing posted an increase of Rs37.6 billion during first half of the current fiscal year. Auto finance continued to be the dominated segment, while personal loans showed a pickup as well.

“The net credit off-take of Rs13.7 billion of personal loans witnessed in first half of the fiscal year is the highest half-year figure in about a decade,” the report stated.

The SBP also highlighted a notable growth in the foods segment and a strong growth in the sub-segment of soft beverage.
Riaz Haq said…
Consumption Patterns of Pakistan’s Middle Class: A Presentation By Dr. Jawaid A. Ghani

Dr. Jawaid Ghani (Professor of Strategy & Market Research) a renowned expert in the industry provided insights on “Consumption Patterns of Pakistan’s Middle Class” based on his latest research. His research stemmed from decades of studying data, and a conviction to portray the true reality of Pakistan’s economy, in particular the strength of consumption within an average household.

The presentation was held at the KSBL campus on April 18, 2017 in front of a fully-packed auditorium.

Dr. Ghani commenced from a very optimistic viewpoint, stating how we stand today at the precipice of pivotal turnaround in Pakistan’s economic strength. He spoke of the phenomena of lifestyle changes once the population has a degree of financial independence and how increases in ownership of basic home appliances suggest Pakistan is moving towards a tipping point of unparalleled growth.

Some key highlights of his talk were the significant shift in poverty line and movement across income brackets from 1990-2015; the rise of Asia’s booming middle class (replacing that in the West as their population levels off and they surpass basic living standards), such that these shifts in population (increasing adult, working bracket) and spending patterns implicate that consumption in Asia will be driving Global consumption in the next 20-30 years. Dr. Ghani built on these developments in contrast to the situation in neighboring China and India, to show how this will shape trade, economic dynamics, potential sub-contracting in the region with ripple effects across Africa and the world.

The lively Q&A brought forward questions on if this growth was sustainable (considering a lower general savings rate), what it means for upcoming businesses and entrepreneurs and how niche markets are the place of potential.

Dr. Jawaid Ghani’s research narrative is unique in that it offers a counter-narrative to Pakistan’s portrayal in the international media. Remarkably, The Wall Street Journal published an article based on his work in February, 2017. The story is available here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistans-middle-class-soars-as-stability-returns-1485945001

In conversation with Dr. Ghani on the context of his work, he spoke of the importance of a deeper economic analysis and the need to address the gap between what is reflected in government policies and the true reality of consumption strength plus business potential. There must be access to objective information, not a subjugation to the international perspective. For this to happen, the need of the day is for young academics, researchers to take regard of the momentous change that is happening and to document it, so the essence in time is captured. An endeavor that is currently being taken up by students and faculty at KSBL.

http://www.ksbl.edu.pk/consumption-patterns-of-pakistans-middle-class-a-presentation-by-dr-jawaid-a-ghani/

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1AUSBMgd8xT1ZGJdft0DcK37hDDolA0wxY8M2OykGBsY/edit#slide=id.p3
Riaz Haq said…
#Pizza Hut set to open 75 new outlets to double its restaurants in #Pakistan - The Express Tribune #FastFood
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1414386/pizza-hut-set-open-75-new-outlets-pakistan/


KARACHI: American fast food giant Pizza Hut has decided to double its presence in Pakistan, the company and its local partner announced on Friday, adding that they would open 75 new outlets at an approximate investment of $3.4 million.

During a ceremony at the US Consulate in Karachi, a new franchise agreement was signed between Yum! Brands – a Fortune 500 company that owns Pizza Hut – and its local partner MCR. The deal was aimed at expanding Pizza Hut’s presence in Pakistan and adding to its network of 75 outlets over the period of next five years.

Robot waiter serves food in Multan’s pizza outlet
While the official press release stated that the agreement commits to an expansion of “150 new Pizza Hut units in Pakistan”, Pizza Hut (Middle East) General Manager Randall Blackford confirmed that the company is targeting a total number of 150 outlets across the country.

“We are currently operating at almost 75 units in Pakistan and we are going to double this number in the next four to five years,” he told The Express Tribune.

“Pizza Hut has a long list of first milestones, which include the first food product to be sold over the internet and the first food product to be delivered to outer space. Therefore, it is natural that we want to reach the milestone of first restaurant chain to have 150 outlets in Pakistan,” he added.

Inaugurated in December 1993, Pizza Hut was the first international franchise to enter Pakistan and also the first one to expand its presence in all four provinces of the country. It currently operates under MCR, a Pakistani company that is part of the services sector for the past 25 years.

“Pakistan is a great market for us and we have made so much progress over the years that we want to double it again,” said Blackford, when asked about the motivation behind expansion. “Additionally, Pizza Hut is a massive revenue-generating brand especially in this part of the world, hence our eagerness to capitalise on the market.”

Meanwhile, MCR President Aqueel Hasan said that the agreement presents a massive opportunity for Pakistan, adding that the country was looking at approximately $3.4 million on average in investment alone from the deal. “The amount of investment varies between the size of the proposed outlets, but the figure is anywhere from $300,000 to $600,000 per unit,” he said. Moreover, the agreement has been slated to generate around 3,500 jobs, excluding the spill-over effects from the expansion.

Social media battle erupts over pineapple on pizza

“This is a huge investment not only in monetary terms, but also it terms of skilled labour force available in the economy,” said Blackford. “Each outlet has a couple of dozen people working, so hiring them and training them – that is a massive investment in time.”
Riaz Haq said…
Fast Food: 2nd largest industry in Pakistan by Prof. Dr. Noor Ahmed Memon, (Dean KASBIT, Khadim Ali Shah Bukhari Inst of Tech).

http://www.foodjournal.pk/2016/July-August-2016/PDF-July-August-2016/Exclusive-article-Dr-Noor-Fast-Food.pdf

Fast Food Industry in Pakistan is the 2nd largest in Pakistan. accounts for 27% of its value added production and 16% of the total employment in manufacturing sector with an estimated 180 million consumers, Pakistan holds the world’s eighth largest market when it comes to fast food and food related business. More than 1000 large scale food processing enterprises in Pakistan. 75% of rural based food manufacturers are in so called informal sector (difficulty in accessing raw material finance informal sector (difficulty in accessing raw material, finance skills, knowledge and management). Pakistan’s fast food sector is changing significantly with an inclined shift in life styles and traditional eating habits. According to the survey which was being made on the performance of the fast food business in Pakistan it was being revealed that an average consumer spends 42% of one’s income on food. Retail sales of processed foods is expand ing by 10% annually. Supermarkets are gaining in popularity as a shopping venue and now account for about 10% of all retail food sales. In addition, Pakistan now hosts numerous western style fast food chains reflecting a rising popularity with such eating style. On an average calculation the fast food business in Pakistan and the trend of eating habits of the locals in the country is increasing almost 21% annually which means the growth of the fast food business in Pakistan is more than 20% on annual basis which makes it as one of the fastest growing businesses not only in Pakistan but even in the entire world as well.

http://www.foodjournal.pk/2016/July-August-2016/PDF-July-August-2016/Exclusive-article-Dr-Noor-Fast-Food.pdf
Riaz Haq said…
McDonald’s first restaurant opened its door to the people of Pakistan in September 1998 in Lahore. This launch was met with unprecedented enthusiasm from the citizens of Lahore, who are known for their liveliness, vigor and penchant for quality food. Karachi opened its first restaurant a week after Lahore. Ever since we opened the doors of our restaurants both in Karachi & Lahore, we have been proud to provide our customers the same great taste, outstanding value and superior service that is synonymous with the Golden Arches all over the world.


There are now 44 restaurants in 16 major cities of Pakistan. (Karachi, Hyderabad, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, Kala Shah Kaku, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Peshawar, Quetta, Sahiwal and Bhera)


https://mcdonalds.com.pk/learn/mcdonald-s-pakistan
Riaz Haq said…
Baskin-Robbins #icecream chain coming to #Pakistan starting with 35 stores in big cities #Lahore #Karachi #Islamabad

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1435458/baskin-robbins-ice-cream-chain-coming-pakistan/


Baskin-Robbins, the world’s most known ice cream chain, has announced that it has signed a master licensing agreement with AHG Flavours (Pvt) Limited and aims to set up 35 Baskin-Robbins shops across Pakistan, with Lahore being the main focal priority.

“Baskin-Robbins is famous around the world for offering an extensive variety of 31 ice cream flavours to its guests and we’re looking forward to treating our customers across Pakistan with the same flavourful experience,” said AHG Flavours Chairman Irfan Mustafa.

“We look forward to opening our first Baskin-Robbins shop in the months ahead.”
AHG Flavours CEO Harris Mustafa, an industry veteran, welcomed Baskin-Robbins in Pakistan in his classic boldness, “Abhi to party shuru hoi hai,” meaning the party has just started.

Aussie globetrotter in love with biryani, Chaman ice-cream

Baskin-Robbins restaurants in Pakistan will feature the brand’s extensive selection of classic ice cream flavours, including Pralines n’ Cream, JamocaTM Almond Fudge, Mint Chocolate Chip and Very Berry Strawberry, alongside regional favourites such as Mango Tango and Tiramisu.

The brand will also offer its delicious range of custom ice cream cakes, frozen beverages, ice cream sundaes and take-home ice cream treats.

Six delicious recipes you must try this Ramazan

“We are pleased to be collaborating with Irfan, Harris and their team to begin developing the Baskin-Robbins brand in Pakistan by bringing our wide range of delicious ice cream flavours, cakes and other treats to Pakistani customers,” said Dunkin’ Brands International Vice President John Varughese.

Baskin-Robbins currently has more than 7,800 restaurants in more than 50 countries around the world.
Riaz Haq said…
5 Most Profitable Business Sectors in Pakistan:

https://www.researchsnipers.com/5-profitable-business-sectors-pakistan/

Pakistan business sector is growing fast, a country with 193.2 million estimated population in 2016 has shown strong growth in the past five years which is expected to grow further. A study published by Harvard indicates that Pakistan’s economic growth will surpass China’s in the next 20 years, growth statistics and current development in the country including China Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC attracts more businesses to invest in Pakistan from across the globe. Recently, France, United Kingdom, Turkey and China has shown special interest to start bilateral trade with Pakistan and private sector companies from these countries are also leapfrogging to make considerable investments in Pakistan.



Despite, these are many sectors in Pakistan that are underdeveloped but these five sectors including; FMCG, Chemicals and Fertilizers, Automotive, Textile and Energy/Petroleum are the most growing and profitable in Pakistan.

The data acquired from Karachi Stock Exchange KSE from 2013 to 2017 indicates that top companies who performed well are from the above five sectors. The companies witnessed strong growth and profitability over the four years.

1 FMCG

FMCG is the most lucrative and huge business sector in Pakistan, companies that are consistently growing and becoming more profitable includes; Colgate Palmolive, Unilever, Nestle and Engro Foods. The market is huge and still in growing stage whereas industry has few multinational players covering the whole market.

2 Chemicals and Fertilizers

“Chemicals and fertilizers” is another big sector which caters even bigger market, companies like ICI Pakistan, Fauji Fertilizer, Engro Fertilizers and Chemicals, Abbot, Lucky Cement and some other are dominating the market with strong growth over time and profitability.

3 Automotive

The automotive industry in Pakistan forms oligopoly, global players like Toyota, Honda and Suzuki dominates the market. However, Pakistan has allowed other automakers to setup car assembly plants in Pakistan, increasing disposable income and the transport needs in the country make the market more attractive, potential and profitable.

4 Textile

Pakistan’s textile industry is popular in all over the world; however, due to lesser facilities and government support Pakistan is not able to streamline its textile growth but the textile industry accounts for 57% of the country overall exports. There are several companies in this sector including Premium Textile and Din Textile that are quite lucrative.

5 Energy/Petroleum

Where there are people there is a need for energy in all segments of life whether you are at home, traveling, working, playing and having leisure energy and petroleum products are inevitable, Pakistan’s energy and petroleum needs are growing rapidly, it is estimated that Pakistan’s energy needs will surpass 50,000 MW by 2025. Petroleum and energy sector in Pakistan is expected to grow further and become more profitable in the future.
Riaz Haq said…
#Pakistan: #Male #beauty salons boom despite strict notions of masculinity. #grooming #middleclass #men #salon https://www.thenational.ae/world/asia/pakistan-male-beauty-salons-boom-despite-strict-notions-of-masculinity-1.707356 … via @TheNationalUAE


Nails are buffed, blackheads scrubbed and coffee sipped to the sound of clipping scissors inside the "Men's" salon in Pakistan's capital Islamabad, where a growing number of male patrons are set on revamping their style.

Pakistan has strict notions of masculinity, with men often expected to be austere and flamboyant styling to be avoided.

But savvy entrepreneurs in urban centres have latched on to a new metrosexual trend: male beauty salons.

While women in urban Pakistan have long enjoyed access to the care of beauticians and stylists, expensive facials and mani-pedis for men are becoming more common as disposable incomes in the nation's swelling middle class grow — per capita income jumped by 6.4 per cent in 2017.

A vibrant social media culture has also fuelled the desire to be selfie-ready at any time, with male influencers like Adnan Malik and Osman Khalid Butt attracting hundreds of thousands of followers online with their fashion-conscious posts.

At Tauseeq Haider's "Men's" salon, customers usually fork out a minimum of 1,400 rupees (Dh79) for a visit — a far cry from the 200 rupees spent at traditional barber shops.

"Men have equal right to be groomed and times have changed. It's no more just getting your haircut," says Mr Haider.

"Senior citizens, bureaucrats, they don't feel ashamed of saying that I need a facial, massage, my nails need to be done, please suggest what should I get," he adds.


In rural Pakistan, men have traditionally taken their fashion tips from Islamic dictates, with the Koran specifying the length of beard and moustache along with hygiene guidelines.

And in the cities, Bollywood and western entertainment have long driven fashion trends for conscientious groomers.

But times are changing fast in the rapidly developing country, with social media setting and wrecking trends in urban centres at the speed of a swipe.

According to Lebanese salon owner Michael Kanaan, who has been based in Pakistan for more than a decade, rising wages and greater exposure to global culture is fanning the burgeoning demand.

"The Pakistan male is becoming more metrosexual. It is all due to the internet and the age of satellites and TVs," he says.

Economist Minhajul Haque agrees, saying Pakistani men are also subjected to a new slew of online advertising campaigns that have reinforced the trend.

"There is this whole lot of clever marketing of male beauty products which is spurring demand," he adds.

Humayun Khan, 49, says he is fine with spending more money to look good and his wife is supportive of the new passion.

"I … get my nails done, get my haircut, get my facial and I am done for the day and after two weeks I come again," he says.

"If I don't look good, my wife wouldn't like me," he adds, laughing.

Stylist Ghulfam Ghori says Pakistani men are also now more concerned with skincare, opting for blackhead removal, acne treatments and even the occasional brush with make-up before major events like weddings.

"Men are very conscious about their skin now … and consider it essential to get facials. Previously it was not common, but now the trend is increasing among men to get themselves groomed," he says.

But it's not just the salons that are cashing in on Pakistani men's blossoming cosmopolitan predilections.

"I can say there is a revolution coming up in Pakistan in the male psyche that they are becoming very much conscious about their beauty, about their face, about their hair, about their dress," says Zafar Bakhtawari, chairman of the D Watson Group, one of Pakistan's biggest pharmacy chains.

Riaz Haq said…
IHOP plans to open its first location in #Pakistan. The first branch of the #American #pancakes #restaurant will open in #Karachi, and will be followed by 18 more across the country over the next nine years, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/pancakes-are-coming-to-pakistan-as-ihop-to-open-19-restaurants via @markets

IHOP plans to open its first location in Pakistan by the end of the year, part of the American pancake restaurant’s efforts to seek new revenue abroad.

The first branch will open in Karachi, and will be followed by 18 more across the country over the next nine years, parent Dine Brands Global Inc. said Monday. Nine of the franchises will be operated by Pakistan-based Gerry’s Group, and the rest will be sub-franchised.

After a couple of dismal years, the chain has rebounded recently under Dine Brands Chief Executive Officer Steve Joyce, who said in a statement that international development is a major component of the company’s return to growth. Same-store sales, a key performance metric for restaurant chains, have climbed for the past four quarters. Joyce cited Pakistan’s rapidly growing economy as part of the reason to open there.

Dine Brands has already signed deals to expand IHOP into Peru and Ecuador this year, and to open more locations in Canada. The chain already has a presence in 14 countries including India, Thailand and Guam, and is exploring options in the U.K.

Riaz Haq said…
Private vehicle ownership in Pakistan has risen sharply over the last 4 years. More than 9% of households now own cars, up from 6% in 2015. Motorcycle ownership has jumped from 41% of households in 2015 to 53% now, according to data released by Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) recently. There are 32.2 million households in Pakistan, according to 2017 Census.



http://www.riazhaq.com/2019/06/vehicles-in-pakistan-over-half-of-all.html
Riaz Haq said…
In Pakistan, it’s middle class rising
S. Akbar Zaidi

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/in-pakistan-its-middle-class-rising/article17378526.ece

he general perception still, and unfortunately, held by many people, foreigners and Pakistanis, is that Pakistan is largely an agricultural, rural economy, where “feudals” dominate the economic, social, and particularly political space. Nothing could be further from this outdated, false framing of Pakistan’s political economy. Perhaps the single most significant consequence of the social and structural transformation under way for the last two decades has been the rise and consolidation of a Pakistani middle class, both rural, but especially, urban.

-------------------

Girls shining
Data based on social, economic and spatial categories all support this argument. While literacy rates in Pakistan have risen to around 60%, perhaps more important has been the significant rise in girls’ literacy and in their education. Their enrolment at the primary school level, while still less than it is for boys, is rising faster than it is for boys. What is even more surprising is that this pattern is reinforced even for middle level education where, between 2002-03 and 2012-13, there had been an increase by as much as 54% when compared to 26% for that of boys. At the secondary level, again unexpectedly, girls’ participation has increased by 53% over the decade, about the same as it has for boys. While boys outnumber girls in school, girls are catching up. In 2014-15, it was estimated that there were more girls enrolled in Pakistan’s universities than boys — 52% and 48%, respectively. Pakistan’s middle class has realised the significance of girls’ education, even up to the college and university level.

In spatial terms, most social scientists would agree that Pakistan is almost all, or at least predominantly, urban rather than rural, even though such categories are difficult to concretise. Research in Pakistan has revealed that at least 70% of Pakistanis live in urban or urbanising settlements, and not in rural settlements, whatever they are. Using data about access to urban facilities and services such as electricity, education, transport and communication connectivity, this is a low estimate. Moreover, even in so-called “rural” and agricultural settlements, data show that around 60% or more of incomes accrue from non-agricultural sources such as remittances and services. Clearly, whatever the rural is, it is no longer agricultural. Numerous other sets of statistics would enhance the middle class thesis in Pakistan.
Riaz Haq said…
"This challenge is the massive efforts being made by the 1.3 billion Muslims to modernize and create the same kind of comfortable and secure middle-class living standards that most American and Chinese citizens already enjoy. Fortunately, most Muslim societies are slowly and steadily succeeding, including the most populous Islamic countries of Indonesia and Malaysia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Over time, these more successful Islamic societies will have a positive impact on some of the more troubled Arab nations in the Middle East."

Mahbubani, Kishore. Has China Won? (pp. 279-281). PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition.
Riaz Haq said…
Iron, steel output swells to 4.7m tonnes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1646475

KARACHI: The production of iron and steel, with billets/ingots mainly used in the construction industry, in the last 10 years swelled by 196 per cent to 4.777 million tonnes in FY21 from 1.616m tonnes in FY12.

H/CR sheets/strips, coils/plates, also known as flat steel products for production of electronics, surged to 3.296m tonnes in FY21 from 1.850m tonnes in FY12, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data of Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) showed.

Rising production of steel related products has led to higher imports of raw materials. For making steel bars, the country’s iron and steel scrap imports in FY21 rose to 4.719m tonnes costing $1.86bn from 1.568m tonnes valuing $538m in 2011-12, the PBS figures showed.

Besides, iron and steel imports swelled to 2.992m tonnes amounting to $1.959bn in FY21 from 1.755m tonnes ($1.4bn) in 2011-12.


Commenting on rising demand for steel bars, Pakistan Association of Large Steel Producers Secretary General Syed Wajid Bukhari said steel bar production till 2011-12 was about three to 3.5m tonnes while the current demand now hovers between 6.5m tonnes to 7m tonnes.

He attributed increase in steel bar prices to soaring scrap prices in the world market to $550 per tonne from $300 per tonne while one dollar is now equal to 168 as compared to Rs85 in 2011-12.

He said gas price increased to Rs97 per unit from Rs15 per unit in the last 10 years followed by power tariff to Rs21 per unit from Rs6 per unit. Freight charges are 100 per high now.

Mr Bukhari was of the view that steel bar demand would soar to nine to 10 million tonnes by 2023-24 in view of rising construction activities.

Private sector consumes 80pc of total steel bar production as compared to 20pc by the public sector, he added.

Hassan Bakhshi, former chairman Association of Builders and Developers (ABAD), said a multi-storey high project to be built on 1,000 yards plot with three floors for car parking requires around 1,100 tonnes of steel bars.

He claimed that steel bar demand has been on the rise due to 80pc construction work on highrise projects in Punjab while the Sindh Building Control Authority (SBCA) has been creating problems in clearing new projects.

“Only 91 projects have been cleared by the SBCA in the last two years in Karachi as compared to 500-7,000 projects a year some 10 years back,” he said.

The projects being promoted on the social, print and electronic media belong to Punjab while in Karachi, advertisement campaigns have been running for old projects which had been approved very late.

Pakistan Association of Parts and Accessories Manufacturers Association chairman Abdul Rehman Aizaz was of the view that auto assemblers and their vendors consume 15,000-20,000 tonnes per month of iron and steel in different forms which are used in making different parts by the vendors and the assemblers.

Bike production swelled to 2.475m units from 1.645m units in FY12, while jeeps/cars production rose to 163,122 units from 154,706 units in FY12.

Trucks and buses production in FY21 jumped to 3,808 and 570 units from 2,597 and 568 units FY12.

Domestic appliances and electronic products have shown phenomenal growth in the last 10 years. For example, production of refrigerators, deep freezers and air conditioners has swelled to 1.337m units, 109,029 units and 505,493 units from 1.062m units, 56,313 units and 240,338 units in FY12. Electric fans production rose to 2.498m units from 1.908m units.

Riaz Haq said…
Samsung TV plant begins production in Karachi

https://www.dawn.com/news/1662359

ISLAMABAD: South Korean technology giant Samsung Electronics has operationalised its first TV line-up plant in collaboration with a local firm in Karachi, Commerce Adviser Razak Dawood announced on Monday.

Taking to Twitter, Mr Dawood shared photos of the facility and tweeted: “We congratulate Samsung Electronics on operationalising its first TV Line-up plant in Pakistan at Karachi in collaboration with R&R Industries. Initially, the unit will produce 50,000 TV sets and increase the capacity to 100,000 units within 2 years.”

South Korean technology giant Samsung Electronics has operationalised its first TV line-up plant in collaboration with a local firm in Karachi, Commerce Adviser Razak Dawood announced on Monday.

Taking to Twitter, Mr Dawood shared photos of the facility and tweeted: “We congratulate Samsung Electronics on operationalising its first TV Line-up plant in Pakistan at Karachi in collaboration with R&R Industries. Initially, the unit will produce 50,000 TV sets and increase the capacity to 100,000 units within 2 years.”

Mr Dawood said the collaboration was in line with Make-in-Pakistan policy of the Ministry of Commerce. “I urge all our firms to partner up with leading international companies to set up units in Pakistan,” the adviser further tweeted.


R&R Industries Pvt Ltd had signed an agreement with Samsung to set up a plant in Karachi’s Korangi Industrial Area. The construction and fabrication of the factory has already been completed.

The local partner company believes the collaboration will create more than 700 jobs in Pakistan due to the vast nature of this project.

It is expected that the business revenue of the project will be approximately touch Rs5 billion per annum and an annual target of producing 50,000 TV units.

Samsung Electronics, founded in 1969, quickly became a major manufacturer in the Korean market. This soon expanded to Samsung becoming a leading global brand and has been one of the world’s leading manufacturer of televisions for the last 15 years.

It is also worth mentioning that Lucky Motor Corporation (LMC), a subsidiary of Lucky Cement Ltd announced, in July that it has entered into an agreement with Samsung Gulf Electronics Co., FZE (Samsung) for the production of Samsung-branded mobile devices in Pakistan. The production facility will be located at LMC’s existing plant which is expected to be completed by end December.


Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan to be the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/growth-consumers-asia-indonesia-bangladesh-pakistan-philippines/

Asian countries are expected to exhibit the biggest growth of the consumer class among the world's 30 biggest consumer markets.
The consumer class is defined as a group of people who spend more than $11 per day.
Currently, 55% of the global consumer class live in Asia.
Nearly 76 million Indonesians alone will join the consumer class by 2030.
This will make Indonesia the fourth biggest consumer market in the world, behind China, India and the U.S.
Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines also expect big growth.

Between the years 2020 and 2030, almost 76 million Indonesians will join the so-called consumer class, a group of people who spend more than $11 (in 2011 PPP dollars) per day. This will cause the country to become the fourth biggest consumer market in the world behind the giants of the field – China, India and the United States.

Even today, 55 percent – or 2.2 billion people - of the global consumer class live in Asia, especially in the world’s two biggest consumer markets, India and China. Despite the fact that Indian consumer class growth is outpacing China’s, the latter country is expected to remain the biggest consumer market in 2030. This is according to data by research company World Data Lab, published by Brookings Institution.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/08/31/which-will-be-the-top-30-consumer-markets-of-this-decade-5-asian-markets-below-the-radar/
Riaz Haq said…
Which will be the top 30 consumer markets of this decade? 5 Asian markets below the radar

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/08/31/which-will-be-the-top-30-consumer-markets-of-this-decade-5-asian-markets-below-the-radar/

Here is an overview of the five top movers:

Bangladesh (+17 positions), from place 28 to 11; future consumer class: 85 million (+50 million)
Global share of consumer class: 0.8 percent (2020), 1.6 percent (2030). Bangladesh’s consumer class is projected to more than double by 2030: Today, 35 million people in Bangladesh spend more than $11 a day. By 2030, it will be 85 million!
Pakistan (+8 positions), from place 15 to 7; future consumer class: 121 million (+56 million)
Global share of consumer class: 6 percent (2020), 2.3 percent (2030). Pakistan will add 56 million new consumers by 2030, for a total of 121 million. This means that in 2030, for the first time, every other Pakistani will be able to spend more than $11 per day.
Vietnam (+7 positions), from place 26 to 19; future consumer class: 56 million (+21 million)
Global share of consumer class: 9 percent (2020), 1.1 percent (2030). Vietnam’s consumer class will grow from 35 million to 56 million within this decade, which is a success story particularly of the middle-aged generation: Consumers between 45 and 65 years of age will contribute nearly 25 percent of Vietnam’s spending, as opposed to 20 percent today.
Philippines (+6 positions), from place 20 to 14; future consumer class: 79 million (+38 million)
Global share of consumer class: 1 percent (2020), 1.5 percent (2030). The Filipino consumer class is projected to grow steadily, from 41 million today to 79 million in 2030. By then, more than two-thirds of the Filipino population will spend more than $11 per day.
Indonesia (+2 positions), from place 6 to 4; future consumer class: 199 million (+76 million)
Global share of consumer class: 2 percent (2020), 3.8 percent (2030). While Indonesia is only moving up two places, it is experiencing a large gain of consumer class growth. Starting from an already large base of 123 million, Indonesia will have almost 200 million consumers in 2030, making it the fourth-largest consumer market in the world.
The big message of this analysis is that the consumer class is spreading across the world, and that many emerging markets will have large consumer markets where supply-chain-scale economies, digital platforms, and local preferences will need to be better understood and developed.
Riaz Haq said…
Household Appliances - Pakistan | Statista Market Forecast

https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/ecommerce/electronics/household-appliances/pakistan

Revenue in the Household Appliances segment is projected to reach US$1,663m in 2021.
Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2021-2025) of 9.08%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$2,354m by 2025.
With a projected market volume of US$97,974m in 2021, most revenue is generated in China.
In the Household Appliances segment, the number of users is expected to amount to 20.8m users by 2025.
User penetration will be 5.6% in 2021 and is expected to hit 8.6% by 2025.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to amount to US$132.78.

----------------

Household Appliances - Bangladesh | Statista Market Forecast

https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/ecommerce/electronics/household-appliances/bangladesh


Revenue in the Household Appliances segment is projected to reach US$988m in 2021.
Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2021-2025) of 27.87%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$2,642m by 2025.
With a projected market volume of US$97,974m in 2021, most revenue is generated in China.
In the Household Appliances segment, the number of users is expected to amount to 56.4m users by 2025.
User penetration will be 16.2% in 2021 and is expected to hit 32.7% by 2025.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to amount to US$36.69.


Riaz Haq said…
Pakistani Motorcycles Market burnt out. In the third quarter sales have been flat from the previous year. Consequently, Year to Date September sales were 1.4 million, up 37.5% vs the 2020 and 13.0% vs the 2019, running towards the second all-time level, just below the 2018 record.

https://www.motorcyclesdata.com/2021/10/25/pakistan-motorcycles/

Motorcycles Market 2021 Trend
Pakistani two wheeler market is accelerating and recovering fast, following the lost reported in the 2020, when prolonged shutdown and lockdowns blocked the production and the commercial activities for a while.

This year the demand is back very fast and we can expect the market to be back on the pre covid track, when it was one of the fastest growing worldwide.

Sales speed up in the first half of this calendar year, when two and three wheeler sales have been 951.093, up a huge 66.8% vs the 2020 and +9.0% vs the 2019, hitting the new record as highest semester ever.

In the third quarter sales have been flat from the previous year. Consequently, Year to Date September sales were 1.4 million, up 37.5% vs the 2020 and 13.0% vs the 2019, running towards the second all-time level, just below the 2018 record.

The competitive arena is dominated by Honda with sales up 52.2%. It is followed by United Auto (+10.7%) and Road Prince (+6.0%), the best local brands.

----------


A decade ago, Bangladesh two-wheeler sales were below 10.000 units per year. Then the industry evolved rapidly, thanks to the investments of new local brands – like Runner and Walton, Indians companies – Bajaj Auto, Hero Motor and TVS -, and Japanese – Suzuki, Yamaha and Honda.

https://www.motorcyclesdata.com/2021/03/12/bangladesh-motorcycles/

In the 2012 the market was already up 10 times compared with 5 years before, while kept steady growing until the 2016, when sales were not far from the quarter of a million.

However, the new policy established by the government in the 2017 changed the industry perspective immediately booming the demand, thanks to the cut of motorcycles price in a range of 20% (both for imported and local made models) and a new life started.

In the following years the market boomed up doubling volume to hit the 487,000 units in the 2018 and finally at over 549,000 units in the 2019.

While Japanese brands are growing, the market is literally dominated by Indian brands, with Baja Auto leader with near 33% of share, followed by Hero Motor and TVS. Honda is fast growing and hold a market share near 11%.
Riaz Haq said…
Cement Production in Pakistan increased to 4042 Thousands (4 million tons) of Tonnes in September from 3765 Thousands of Tonnes in August of 2021. source: State Bank of Pakistan


https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/cement-production

-------------------

In the last seven years, the production capacity of the local cement companies increased by 131 percent, while demand rose by 106 percent.

At the end of 2018, the production capacity stood at 5.80 crore tonnes, while the demand rose to as much as 3.10 crore tonnes.

Of the locally produced cement, the government uses 35 percent, commercial developers use 35 percent and individual-level small buyers use the rest.

From 2011 to 2018, the per capita use of cement increased by 97 percent to stand at 187kg. However, the country yet lags behind the world average of per capita use of 563kg.

Bangladesh is the 40th country in the world cement market now.


https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/bangladeshs-cement-industry-booming


Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan becomes the fourth largest bike manufacturer country in the world

https://www.edgedandtaken.com/pakistan-becomes-the-fourth-largest-bike-manufacturer-country-in-the-world/

Prime Minister Imran Khan met yesterday with prominent industrialists and businessmen in Islamabad. During the meeting, the Prime Minister Imran Khan stated that Pakistan has become the fourth largest producer of bike in the world. Discussing the automotive sector, Imran Khan said tractor exports increased by 10% while the country produced 90% of its parts.

This is not the first time the Prime Minister has cited the bike industry and its apparent success. Last year, the Prime Minister stated that in the fiscal year 2020-2021, Pakistan recorded the largest number of motorcycle sales in the history of the country. He said record motorcycle sales show that the country’s low-income class is making progress. Given that motorcycles are known as the journey of an ordinary person, “aam admi ki sawari”, the Prime Minister Imran Khan says that the increase in motorcycle sales means the strengthening of “aam admi”.

Meanwhile, prices as well as bikes sales speak differently. During 2021, motorcycle companies gradually increased prices. According to our research, Honda has increased the rates by 7 times, Yamaha 5 times, while Suzuki has revised its rates 4 times.

The figures show that the price of the most famous Honda CD70 has risen by Rs. 14,800 last year, while the Honda CG 125 saw a total increase of Rs. 21 000. Meanwhile, Yamaha’s well-known YBR bikes have noticed a price increase of Rs. 30,500 during 2021.

And Suzuki motorcycle prices have risen to Rs. 25,000 last year. It shows how much prices have risen. Surprisingly, despite this repeated increase in prices, sales figures in 2021 continued to show upward trajectories, leading the country into a massive motorcycle manufacturer in the world.

According to the data, sales of Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki motorcycles increased in the period July-November 2021, as well as from month to month. The PAMA report showed that Atlas Honda Limited broke its sales record. In November, the company sold its highest number of bikes at 128,503 units, beating its October sales record when 125,031 bikes were sold.

Honda sales, meanwhile, rose to 563,575 units in July-November from 512,010 in the same period last year. Other Japanese motorcycle companies, Suzuki and Yamaha, also recorded high sales during this 5-month period.

The data showed that Suzuki sold 14,915 bikes in those five months compared to 8,719 in the same period last year. This means that its sales increased by 71%. Meanwhile, Yamaha sales rose to 9,962 units from 8,733 last year, a jump of 14%.
Riaz Haq said…
Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21

By Riaz Riazuddin former deputy governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1659441/consumption-habits-inflation

As households move to upper-income brackets, the share of spending on food consumption falls. This is known as Engel’s law. Empirical proof of this relationship is visible in the falling share of food from about 48pc in 2001-02 for the average household. This is an obvious indication that the real incomes of households have risen steadily since then, and inflation has not eaten up the entire rise in nominal incomes. Inflation seldom outpaces the rise in nominal incomes.

Coming back to eating habits, our main food spending is on milk. Of the total spending on food, about 25pc was spent on milk (fresh, packed and dry) in 2018-19, up from nearly 17pc in 2001-01. This is a good sign as milk is the most nourishing of all food items. This behaviour (largest spending on milk) holds worldwide. The direct consumption of milk by our households was about seven kilograms per month, or 84kg per year. Total milk consumption per capita is much higher because we also eat ice cream, halwa, jalebi, gulab jamun and whatnot bought from the market. The milk used in them is consumed indirectly. Our total per person per year consumption of milk was 168kg in 2018-19. This has risen from about 150kg in 2000-01. It was 107kg in 1949-50 showing considerable improvement since then.

Since milk is the single largest contributor in expenditure, its contribution to inflation should be very high. Thanks to milk price behaviour, it is seldom in the news as opposed to sugar and wheat, whose price trend, besides hurting the poor is also exploited for gaining political mileage. According to PBS, milk prices have risen from Rs82.50 per litre in October 2018 to Rs104.32 in October 2021. This is a three-year rise of 26.4pc, or per annum rise of 8.1pc. Another blessing related to milk is that the year-to-year variation in its prices is much lower than that of other food items. The three-year rise in CPI is about 30pc, or an average of 9.7pc per year till last month. Clearly, milk prices have contributed to containing inflation to a single digit during this period.

Next to milk is wheat and atta which constitute about 11.2pc of the monthly food expenditure — less than half of milk. Wheat and atta are our staple food and their direct consumption by the average household is 7kg per capita (84kg per capita per year). As we also eat naan from the tandoors, bread from bakeries etc, our indirect consumption of wheat and atta is 41kg per capita. Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Does this indicate better health? To answer this, let us look at how we devour ghee and sugar. Also remember that each person requires a minimum of 2,100 calories and 60g of protein per day.

Undoubtedly, ghee, cooking oil and sugar have a special place in our culture. We are familiar with Urdu idioms mentioning ghee and shakkar. Two relate to our eating habits. We greet good news by saying ‘Aap kay munh may ghee shakkar’, which literally means that may your mouth be filled with ghee and sugar. We envy the fortune of others by saying ‘Panchon oonglian ghee mei’ (all five fingers immersed in ghee, or having the best of both worlds). These sayings reflect not only our eating trends, but also the inflation burden of the rising prices of these three items — ghee, cooking oil and sugar. Recall any wedding dinner. Ghee is floating in our plates.

Riaz Haq said…
About SPAR Pakistan

https://www.dawn.com/news/1551869

SPAR is a supermarket offering fresh fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, grocery and household products with an in-store pharmacy and bakery.

SPAR is an international retail chain with over 13,000+ stores in 48 countries. In Pakistan SPAR Supermarket has 3 stores and has plans to expand across the country.

The store has its presence in two locations in Karachi; one at Alamgir Road, Sharfabad and the other at Miran Shah Road, Muhammad Ali Society/KDA scheme 1. The Faisalabad store is located on Eden Valley Road.

KARACHI SPAR SHARFABAD MS Tower, Alamgir Road, Sharfabad, Karachi SPAR KDASaima Twin Tower, Miran Shah Road, M.Ali Society, Karachi Map linkSPAR NORTH NAZIMABAD Shahrah-e-Humayun, North Nazimabad, Block F, Karachi. SPAR D.H.A PHASE VIII9-C, Lane 4, Phase VIII, Zulfiqar & Al Murtuza commercial area, Phase 8 Defence Housing Authority, Karachi, 75500
Riaz Haq said…
International supermarket chains in Pakistan:


Carrefour (Hypermart) French

Metro Cash & Carry German

SPAR Dutch

Tesco British

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Imtiaz Supermarket local Pakistani chain
Riaz Haq said…
International Fast Food Chain Restaurants in Pakistan



22 – Fatburger

21 – Butlers Chocolate Cafe

20 – Cinnabon

19 – Texas Chicken

18 – CP Five Star

17 – Pepe’s Piri Piri

16 – Uncle Tetsu

15 – P.F. Chang’s

14 – Gloria Jeans

13 – Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf

12 – Nandos

11 – Papa Johns

10 – Hardees

9 – Johnny Rockets

8 – Baskin Robbins

7 – Subway

6 – KFC

5 – Dominos

4 – Dunkin Donuts

3 – Pizza Hut

2 – Burger King

1 – McDonald’s
Riaz Haq said…
Fast food in Pakistan

https://food.tribune.com.pk/en/blog/fast-food-chains-in-pakistan-that-are-really-really-delicious

Fast food is highly appreciated all around the world, including Pakistan where it is eaten by people in all age categories. Desi cuisines are almost equivalent to burgers and pizzas and both are all well-loved for the delicious tastes they have to offer.
Pakistan now has some of world’s most famous fast food chains that are very well celebrated. Here’s a list of some of them:


MCDONALD’S:
One of the most well-known fast food chains in the world, and one that is still expanding is McDonald’s. The first outlet was launched in 1988 in Lahore and soon opened in Karachi a week after. It receives immense love from people here till this day, and is mostly famous for their burgers and fries. It is a must-stop for all fast food lovers as it provides everything from delicious burgers and fries to desserts.

KFC:
KFC launched its headquarters in Pakistan during the year 1997 in Karachi. It is now the second most leading fast food chain in Pakistan having opened its doors all over the country from an expansive menu of fried chicken, burgers and delicious sauces. KFC is and has been serving food with quality and taste all around the world since the beginning.

PIZZA HUT:
One of the oldest and most famous pizza places was founded by two brothers in 1958. This was Pizza Hut which is one of the first renowned pizzerias launched in Pakistan and remains popular till this day.
Pizza Hut now has an exceptionally large menu being served in Pakistan, starting from different flavours and toppings, all the way to different types of crusts. This chain is surely a treat for all pizza lovers in the country.

DOMINO’S:
Domino’s Pizza was founded in Michigan, United States and was previously known as Dominick’s. Dominos have now taken Pakistan with a storm by being one of leading pizza places here, having various branches all over the country.
Their mouth-watering menu consists of delicious pizzas and delightful desserts.

HARDEES:
Hardees is also one of the most favorite fast food places of Pakistan. The chain managed to open branches all around the country due to the immense popularity it gained. They are most famous for their char-grilled burgers and delicious beef burgers along with their mouth-watering sides of curly fries. Hardees is surely making its name in Pakistan’s fast food industry.

BURGER KING:
Burger King first opened their gates in Pakistan in October 2013, and since then have spread all around the country at a fast pace. Their menu consists of various kinds of burgers, fries and salads.
Burger King has everything on their menu to satisfy a fast food fanatic.


This is a complete guide for all fast food lovers in Pakistan. The chains have not only proven their name for quality services and tasty food, but also the ability to expand quite rapidly. With the growing food industry, we surely know the list doesn’t end here so watch out for some more blogs on growing fast food chains in Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said…
Eidul Azha has helped other sections of the struggling market like transporters who shuttle animals from the market to homes; electronics especially deep-freezers; various forms of knives and cutting boards; spices and other things to help cook on the big day; BBQ equipment — skewers and grills — and fuel like coal.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1636294

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Deep freezers sales also saw a strong rebound, rising to 11,732 units in April 2021 from 1,048 units in April 2020 while March 2021 production stood at 7,236 units

https://www.dawn.com/news/1629800/production-of-home-appliances-soars

Riaz Haq said…
Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22: Manufacturing

https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/PES03-MANUFACTURING.pdf

Table 3.8: Production of Automobiles
Category Installed Capacity No. of Units 2020-21(July-March) 2021-22(July-March) %Change
CAR 341,000 106,439 166,768 56.7
LCV/JEEPS/SUV/Pickup 52,000 22,512 32,341 43.7
BUS 5,000 445 459 3.1
TRUCK 28,500 2,509 4,445 77.2
TRACTOR 100,000 36,900 41,872 13.5
2/3 WHEELERS 2,500,000 1,439,535 1,388,669 -3.5
Source: Pakistan Automotive Manufacturer Association (PAMA)

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Table-3.2: Production of selected industrial items of Large-Scale Manufacturing
S# Items Unit Weights July-March % Change % Point Contribution 2020-21 2021-22
1 Deepfreezers (Nos.) 0.167 68,947 84,205 22.13 0.04
2 Jeeps and Cars (Nos.) 2.715 114,617 177,757 55.09 1.41
3 Refrigerators (Nos.) 0.246 928,170 1,024,335 10.36 0.02
4 Upper leather (000 sq.m.) 0.398 13,324 10,966 -17.70 -0.06
5 Cement (000 tonnes) 4.650 37,619 36,543 -2.86 -0.21
6 Liquids/syrups (000 Litres) 1.617 86,212 144,638 67.77 1.30
7 Phos. fertilizers (N tonnes) 0.501 545,612 601,184 10.19 0.06
8 Tablets (000 Nos.) 2.725 20,380,940 14,695,108 -27.90 -0.85
9 Cooking oil (tonnes) 1.476 334,107 370,181 10.80 0.21
10 Nit. fertilizers (N tonnes) 3.429 2,450,066 2,505,757 2.27 0.09
11 Cotton cloth (000 sq.m.) 7.294 786,042 788,285 0.29 0.02
12 Vegetable ghee (tonnes) 1.375 1,087,827 1,060,111 -2.55 -0.05
13 Cotton yarn (tonnes) 8.882 2,577,675 2,594,690 0.66 0.07
14 Sugar (tonnes) 3.427 5,618,976 7,759,825 38.10 2.13
15 Tea blended (tonnes) 0.485 100,566 112,544 11.91 0.06
16 Petroleum Products* (000 Litres) 6.658 - - 2.10 0.01
17 Cigarettes (million No) 2.072 39,473 46,070
Riaz Haq said…
HAIER ANNOUNCES THE LARGEST EXCLUSIVE RETAIL NETWORK OF 300 STORES ACROSS PAKISTAN

https://arynews.tv/haier-retail-network-300-stores-pakistan/


Haier Pakistan is one of Pakistan’s leading home appliance brands, producing high-quality home appliances in many categories.

Haier introduces the best, environmentally-friendly, and innovative products with a wide range in different categories such as Air Conditioners, LED TVs, Refrigerators, Washing Machines, and more.

Haier proudly announces it has the largest exclusive retail network of 300 stores across Pakistan! With innovative and advanced technological solutions, Haier is committed to providing the best home appliances to our customers.

Haier took immense pride in celebrating the inauguration of 300 Haier stores countrywide. To celebrate this milestone, Haier went live from their social media pages on 30th March 2022 at Jumbo Electronics in Lahore.

At the ceremony, Mr. Usama Sultan, Head of Department of Exclusive Dealer Network, kicked off the event and shared valuable information regarding Haier Store Network. He addressed “Today we are gathered on grand inauguration of 300th Haier Store, Largest retail Network in home appliance industry. In Addition to this, we Have 4 smart Homes & 60 Smart Stores where you can experience smart living room, smart kitchen, smart bed room, smart laundry with live demonstration & largest product range. Our vision is to stretch our network in each level/town of Pakistan by targeting 500 stores & transform high-end store to experience store. Our brand store is equipped with ERP Software where you can view sell-in, sellout, financial reports, & manage customers data base. Another milestone is Haier Own Online Platform where all Brand Stores will be integrated online. Be part of No.1 Retail Network & secure your profits even 70% ROI in first year.”

It was later followed by an inspiring words delivered by Mr. Sohaib Rathore, Director Sales. Haier’s sales team shared the details of all products and their specifications to the audience, enlightening them about the products and their usage. The event was a huge success with a mammoth crowd in attendance at the grand celebration. The event was organized at Jumbo Electronics, near the main LOS Stop Near Lahore Center.

Haier Pakistan will continue to stay committed to its loyal customer base and will always be at the forefront in serving the nation with the most advanced technological solutions, for a smarter and better lifestyle.

Haier proudly inspiring lives every day!
Riaz Haq said…
Pak Suzuki breaks sales record
Despite inflation and economic crisis, Pak Suzuki has posted record sales. While on the other hand, Toyota has stopped its booking.

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/pak-suzuki-breaks-sales-record/

Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) has recorded high sales this year despite economic crisis. According to a recent source, the company broke its previous record of over 15,500 automobiles sold in December 2021 by selling more than 16,000 cars in June 2022.

Reports indicate that the new Suzuki Swift has significantly impacted the total increase in sales, despite the fact that the split of sales is unknown.


Additionally, PSMC is a strong competitor in Pakistan’s small-car industry thanks to its extensive product selection of city automobiles. The firm dominates the automobile industry with a market share of more than 60%.

However, predictions state that by late 2022 or early 2023, sales of all automakers, including PSMC, will likely drop as a result of rising gasoline and vehicle prices. Due to the accumulation of backlogged orders, the sales will continue to be steady for the time being.

Suzuki New Motorcycle Costs
A 7% increase has been noticed in the Suzuki GD110S. Compared to the previous price of Rs. 212,000, the bike now costs Rs. 219,000.

The Suzuki GS150’s price has increased by Rs. 7,000, costing Rs. 239,000 as opposed to Rs. 232,000 previously.

The third motorcycle, the Suzuki GS150SE, now costs Rs. 256,000 as opposed to Rs. 249,000 at the previous price, an increase of Rs. 7,000.

Last but not least, the business raised the cost of the Suzuki GR150 by Rs. 10,000, bringing the new price up to Rs. 349,000 from Rs. 339,000 previously.

As usual, the firm has not provided any explanation for this price rise. These price increases are cruel and unreasonable, especially in light of growing inflation. The general population can no longer afford the “Awaami Sawari.”

What do you think of the recurring monthly price increases for bicycles? Do you think it’s appropriate? Has purchasing a bike altered your spending plan? Comment with your ideas in the space provided.
Riaz Haq said…
Household Appliances - Pakistan | Statista Market Forecast

https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/ecommerce/electronics/household-appliances/pakistan

Revenue in the Household Appliances segment is projected to reach US$1,765.00m in 2022.
Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2022-2025) of 10.07%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$2,354.00m by 2025.
With a projected market volume of US$102,300.00m in 2022, most revenue is generated in China.
In the Household Appliances segment, the number of users is expected to amount to 20.8m users by 2025.
User penetration will be 6.4% in 2022 and is expected to hit 8.6% by 2025.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to amount to US$120.10.
Riaz Haq said…
A serial entrepreneur Tanweer Ahmed and his devotion to make lives better

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-network/a-serial-entrepreneur-tanweer-ahmed-and-his-devotion-to-make-lives-better


The diversity of this world is great, and not one person has the same story to tell as another; including Tanweer Ahmed. Ever since he can remember he has been finding ways to be independent and a successful Leader. Leaders in companies oftentimes have to work hard and lead others to work hard as well. Tanweer Ahmed, since the moment he left Pakistan for good in the 80s, has been excelling in every single initiative that he has taken. Dedication is attractive to customers. Ultimately, the leadership shown through dedication and passion play a major part in the successful journey.

Tanweer Ahmed is a brand, a person, and a company that owns several top-notch companies. He has built himself into this with years of toil and struggle. The small-town boy got here to the USA with big goals in his heart. Despite having a massive language barrier, and cultural differences, He ultimately started running the food industry in California. After a huge amount of struggle, he started a transportation company.

This is where he met the federal reserve vice chairman and afterwards sent him the idea as to how they can revive the banking industry. With the acceptance, he got his 1st massive fulfillment of becoming one of the largest agencies in 5 one-of-a-kind different states on the west coast aspect. He shifted his industry to food again with a bang and he added some food chains to his portfolio like KFC, pizza hut, and Taco Bell. He believes, that with loyalty, integrity, and honesty, no person can stop your fulfillment.

With an individual being hands-on, he effectively redirected towards the energy business when on one occasion in the wake of viewing his benefit and misfortune explanation which had an enormous lump of cost as energy. In the wake of occupying all the experience and learnings of advisors and designers, he was at last ready to open up an energy organization. That’s not it. With his passion for cricket in his heart, he left his hometown and flew to the USA. But that also never diminished his love for the game. Widely spreading his wings in the USA Market as a successful Businessman still his evenings would be spent playing cricket. Day by Day, his passion grew more and it was then that he decided to build the largest Cricket Stadium in the USA.

Tanweer Ahmed is not just an entrepreneur, mentor but also a person with philanthropy in his roots. He has actively been involved in financing Weddings of Girls in his homeland like his mother used to do. He has donated acres of land for the establishment of Islamic School and Muslim Graveyard in USA.

The self-made man is often portrayed as a story of rags to riches. A person who overcomes any obstacle thrown at him or her and defies all odds. Such is the story of Tanweer Ahmed.
Riaz Haq said…
Mani Shankar Aiyar: What #India's #Modi Has Not Recognised About #Pakistan: ITS RESILIENCE AND NATIONALISM http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/pakistans-resilience-beats-modis-56-inch-chest-771700 … via @ndtv

Note: Mani Shankar spent some time in Pakistan posted as a diplomat, serving as India's first consul-general in Karachi from 1978 to 1982. He's a former federal cabinet minister and current member of Rajya Sabha

"unlike numerous other emerging nations, particularly in Africa, the Idea of Pakistan has repeatedly trumped fissiparous tendencies, especially since Pakistan assumed its present form in 1971. And its institutions have withstood repeated buffeting that almost anywhere elsewhere would have resulted in the State crumbling. Despite numerous dire forecasts of imminently proving to be a "failed state", Pakistan has survived, bouncing back every now and then as a recognizable democracy with a popularly elected civilian government, the military in the wings but politics very much centre-stage, linguistic and regional groups pulling and pushing, sectarian factions murdering each other, but the Government of Pakistan remaining in charge, and the military stepping in to rescue the nation from chaos every time Pakistan appeared on the knife's edge. The disintegration of Pakistan has been predicted often enough, most passionately now that internally-generated terrorism and externally sponsored religious extremism are consistently taking on the state to the point that the army is so engaged in full-time and full-scale operations in the north-west of the country bordering Afghanistan that some 40,000 lives have been lost in the battle against fanaticism and insurgency.

"And yet," as was said on a more famous occasion, "it works!" Pakistan and her people keep coming back, resolutely defeating sustained political, armed and terrorist attempts to break down the country and undermine its ideological foundations. That is what Jaffrelot calls its "resilience". That resilience is not recognized in Modi's India. That is what leads the Rathores and the Parrikars to make statements that find a certain resonance in anti-Pakistan circles in India but dangerously leverage the impact on Pakistani public opinion of anti-India circles in Pakistan. The Parrikars and the Saeeds feed on each other. It is essential that both be overcome.

But even as there are saner voices in India than Rathore's, so also are there saner - much saner - voices in Pakistan than Hafiz Saeed's. Many Indians would prefer a Pakistan overflowing with Saeeds to keep their bile flowing. So would many Pakistanis prefer an India with the Rathores overflowing to keep the bile flowing. At eight times Pakistan's size, we can flex our muscles like the bully on the school play field. But Pakistan's resilience ensures that all that emerges from Parrikar and Rathore are empty words. India is no more able than Pakistan is to destroy the other country"


http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/pakistans-resilience-beats-modis-56-inch-chest-771700
Riaz Haq said…
Indian Diplomat Sharat Sabharwal on Pakistan's "Resilience", "Strategic" CPEC, China-Pakistan "Nexus"

http://www.riazhaq.com/2022/08/indian-diplomat-sharat-sabrhawal-on.html

Retired Indian diplomat Sharat Sabharwal in his recently published book "India's Pakistan Conundrum" disabuses his fellow Indians of the notion that Pakistan is about to collapse. He faithfully parrots the familiar Indian tropes about Pakistani Army and accuses it of sponsoring "cross-border terrorism". He also writes that "Pakistan has shown remarkable resilience in the face of adversity". "Pakistan is neither a failed state nor one about to fail", he adds. He sees "limitations on India’s ability to inflict a decisive blow on Pakistan through military means". The best option for New Delhi, he argues, is to engage with Pakistan diplomatically. In an obvious message to India's hawkish Hindu Nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he warns: "Absence of dialogue and diplomacy between the two countries carries the risk of an unintended flare-up". Ambassador Sabharwal served as Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan from 2009 to 2013. Prior to that, he was Deputy High Commissioner in Islamabad in the 1990s.
Riaz Haq said…
Fast Food: 2nd largest
industry in Pakistan
by Prof. Dr. Noor Ahmed Memon, (Dean KASBIT).


How big is the fast food industry in Pakistan?
Fast Food Industry in Pakistan is the 2nd largest in Pakistan. accounts for 27% of its value added production and 16% of the total employment in manufacturing sector with an estimated 180 million con- sumers, Pakistan holds the world's eighth largest market when it comes to fast food and food related business.

http://foodjournal.pk/2016/July-August-2016/PDF-July-August-2016/Exclusive-article-Dr-Noor-Fast-Food.pdf

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