Pakistan Rising or Failing? Reality vs Perception

Pakistan has a population of over 200 million people and a booming trillion dollar economy ranked among the top 25 largest economies of the world.
Courtesy:  Ashraf Hameedi, Highforest Capital

Pakistan's 135 million millennials have made it the world's fastest growing retail market. There is surging demand for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and durables like smartphones, computers, cars, motorcycles and home appliances.

Courtesy: Nikkei Asian Review

Major energy and infrastructure projects, part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), are transforming the country and creating millions of new jobs.

Incidents of terrorism and terror related deaths are in sharp decline since the country's military started nation-wide anti-terror operations in 2013.

Its $20 billion tourism industry is seeing rapid growth.

And yet, many continue to call Pakistan a "failed state". Why is it? Why is perception lagging reality?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Monis Rehman, Pakistani entrepreneur and CEO of Rozee.pk, and regular panelist Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/XDima7JSxKs





Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan is the 3rd Fastest Growing Trillion Dollar Economy

Pakistan Education Budget Surpasses Defense Spending

Information Tech Jobs Moving From India to Pakistan

Pakistan is 5th Largest Motorcycle Market

"Failed State" Pakistan Saw 22% Growth in Per Capita Income in Last 5 Years

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Home Appliance Ownership in Pakistani Households

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel



Comments

Riaz Haq said…
THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
Consumer confidence in Pakistan at all-time high

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1609611/2-consumer-confidence-pakistan-time-high/

KARACHI: Pakistan’s consumer confidence has reached an all-time high of 111, up by nine points in the third quarter (July-September) of 2017, from 102 points in the previous quarter (April-June), according to the Nielsen Global Survey of consumer confidence and spending intentions.

“The nine-point increase in Pakistan’s consumer confidence score depicts an improving outlook for the country,” Nielsen Pakistan Managing Director Quratulain Ibrahim was quoted as saying in the press release.

“Since Nielsen launched the survey, this has been the highest number reached to date, which can be attributed to several reasons such as the growth in the agricultural sector, controlled inflation, strengthened power supply and most importantly, the uplift in the job market. Pakistan is flourishing and is rated as one of the top growth markets in the Middle East & Africa region.” The survey data highlights a positive perception of job outlook, increasing from 47% in the second quarter to 57% in the third.

Although there has been a one percentage point dip in job security being the biggest concern over the next six months, it still remains the top concern amongst 21% of Pakistani consumers. Consumers are spending more on vacations and technology in third quarter, suggesting that they have more disposable cash.

Regionally, there has been a one-point increase in the index level. Africa / Middle East has also witnessed a one percentage point increase in the job prospects (38%), with no change in the state of respondent’s personal finances. Spending intentions increased one percentage point to 34%.

Four out of six Africa / Middle East markets showed consumer confidence gains. Pakistan’s consumer confidence rose the most, by nine points (which stands at 111). United Arab Emirates (112), South Africa (83) and Egypt (81) were amongst the other countries showing an increase in consumer confidence index.

Conversely, consumer confidence fell in Morocco (72) and Saudi Arabia (93), declining by five points in both countries.

Established in 2005, the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is fielded quarterly in 63 countries to measure the perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances, immediate spending intentions and related economic issues of real consumers around the world. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
Riaz Haq said…
‘#Pakistan #economy set to achieve 6% #GDP growth’ in current fiscal year 2017-18, says nation's central bank report

http://www.gulf-times.com/story/578803/Pakistan-economy-set-to-achieve-6-GDP-growth


he State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said yesterday that prospects for economic growth remain strong, noting that the economy is poised to achieve the growth target of 6% for 2017-18.
In its first quarterly report on the state of the economy, the SBP said rising income levels of consumers are fuelling retail sales and commercial activities.
However, there was an urgent need for finding more avenues for foreign exchange earnings and realigning policies favouring exports growth by addressing long-term structural impediments.
“For the external sector, recent gains in exports growth and foreign direct investments (FDI) while significant were not enough to contain the overall balance-of-payments deficit,” said the report.
It added that the widening of the current account deficit associated with increased economic activity is a recurrent phenomenon in Pakistan and has undermined maturing growth cycles in the past.
While the report expressed satisfaction over the increased revenue in the first quarter of 2017-18, it said that earlier efforts aimed at increasing the tax base need to be more concerted and perhaps require new, innovative methods.
The report raised the question whether the economy is doing well enough to sustain the virtuous equilibrium of high growth-low inflation into the medium and long terms. The report stressed the need for addressing the long-standing structural reforms in the fiscal and the external sectors for sustainability.
The report analysed the recent growth in exports and identified three reasons for it. Uninterrupted energy supplies to the manufacturing sector, increasing global demand and commodity prices and the recent exchange rate deprecation.
What stands out is the role of a benign inflationary environment for some time now that has helped spur the expansion in economic activities. Low and stable prices have facilitated and eased the process of economic decision-making.
“More tangibly, falling inflation along with healthy agriculture output and stable exchange rate has resulted in higher real rural incomes and urban wages. The resultant boost in consumption forms an integral part of the current economic growth paradigm,” said the report.
Low inflation has also allowed the SBP to cumulatively cut the policy rate by 425 basis points since the autumn of 2014.
The report suggested that average inflation in 2017-18 would remain below its annual target of 6%.
However, there are two major risks to this inflation forecast: first, recent exchange rate depreciation through expectations channel and, after some lag, through the higher imported goods’ price can seep into domestic prices; second, uncertain global oil prices pose both upside and downside risks.
The report said in the first quarter, the fiscal deficit was 1.2% of gross domestic product, lower than 1.4% recorded in the corresponding period of the last year. Total revenue recovered strongly, showing an 18.9% increase in the three-month period against an 8% decline in the same period a year ago.
“Against this, consolidated federal and provincial expenditures grew 12.8% compared to 2.8% increase in the same period last year,” said the report.


A worker inspects fabric on looms at a textile manufacturing unit in Karachi. The State Bank of Pakistan said yesterday that prospects for economic growth remain strong in Pakistan, noting that the economy is poised to achieve the growth target of 6% for 2017-18.
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan: Chai at Midnight
Scenes of daily life in Pakistan rarely make the news; here are some glimpses.

By Robert Gerhardt
January 26, 2018

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/pakistan-chai-at-midnight/

Pakistan has a mixed reputation in the eyes of many Americans (including the president, according to his tweets). When Pakistan is in the international news, it’s often for terrorism or sectarian violence. But while terrorist attacks do happen in the country — the people I met during a recent visit were open about that fact — the country is far from being a warzone.

During my travels, no matter where I went, or what time of day or night, every Pakistani I met was unbelievably welcoming to me. They would offer up bits of small talk and copious quantities of tea and snacks. They even put up with my bad attempts to speak Urdu, smiling and laughing as I tried to string together a few phrases.

Virtually every night my new friends and I went out for chai at a little market stall, usually around midnight when the heat broke — at least a bit. It got to the point that the locals and the Puthans who worked there stopped acting surprised to me see; they would smile and wave as we arrived.

As I traveled around the country, I photographed what I saw in front of me: the markets, streets, late-night chai stalls, drivers, motorbikes and street food vendors. It’s these people going about their routines that make up the daily life of a country many never see.

Robert Gerhardt is a social documentary photographer based in New York City. His work has appeared in The New York Times, The Guardian, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Hindustan Times, and Newsweek among others. Robert’s projects can be seen on his website: www.RobertGerhardt.com
Riaz Haq said…
Imports of used cars in Pakistan jump 70pc

https://www.dawn.com/news/1385303/imports-of-used-cars-in-pakistan-jump-70pc

KARACHI: Imports of used cars and minivans surged to 65,723 units in 2017, up almost 70 per cent from 38,676 units a year ago, latest data released by the auto industry shows.

The arrival of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) also increased 59pc to 7,758 units. Imports of pickups and vans registered a 9pc rise to 3,154 units.

The local industry maintains a record of each imported vehicle, whether new or old, through the Import General Manifest (IGM). Every imported car is logged in the customs’ IGM.

Toyota Vitz was most popular foreign vehicle in 2017

Toyota Vitz remained the most popular imported car in 2017. As many as 8,680 units arrived in 2017, up almost 40pc from a year ago. The volume of Daihatsu Mira swelled 73.1pc to 6,091 units.

Toyota Aqua imports climbed 96pc to 7,123 units from 3,622 units in 2016.

As many as 5,088 units of Suzuki Every were brought into Pakistan in 2017, up 14.6pc year-on-year. Imports of Daihatsu Hijet rose 34.5pc to 3,367 units.

The arrival of Suzuki Alto doubled to 4,158 units from 2,013 units a year ago. Suzuki WagonR imports surged 115pc to 3,574 units.

Imports of Honda Vezel and Toyota Land Cruiser stood 2,431 units and 3,301 units in 2017, up 57.5pc and 55.7pc, respectively, on an annual basis.

The overall volume of imported used vehicles grew 65pc to 76,635 units in 2017 from 46,500 units a year ago, data showed.

Low interest rates, increase in auto financing by banks and lifting of vehicles by investors for cab services like Careem and Uber boosted the imports of used cars as well as sales of locally assembled vehicles.

The government imposed regulatory duties on the purchase of foreign used vehicles in October, which largely failed to dent the overall annual import figures.

Sales of locally produced cars rose 20.4pc on a year-on-year basis to 103,432 units in July-December.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, overall imports of cars increased 64pc to $276 million in July-December.

Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers’ former chairman Aamir Allawala said the local vending industry lost estimated revenue of Rs23 billion last year.

The estimate is based on taking the average local content per vehicle of Rs300,000 on imports of 76,645 units in 2017. This is in contrast to a loss of Rs14bn in 2016 with imports of 46,500 vehicles.

He said imports of used cars were the biggest impediment to investment by existing assemblers, new entrants and part makers.

He said the government has modified the procedure for the payment of duties and taxes to curb imports of used vehicles.

“Time has come for the existing players to make prompt investment in capacity expansion, improve localisation, introduce new models and reduce delivery time to eliminate the menace of premium,” he said, adding that an increase in production will boost tax revenue and create jobs.

In the near future, Hyundai, Kia and Renault will set up plants in the country.
Riaz Haq said…
Two-time #Grammy wining #American DJ and #music producer Diplo brings his Mad Decent Block Party to #Pakistan's capital #Islamabad over the weekend, headlining a roster of musicians including local #Pakistani acts. #SNKM

http://www.todayonline.com/world/pakistan-gets-dash-music-diplo-macy

For two-time Grammy winner Diplo, playing Pakistan is a way to foster good relations with the mostly Muslim country after an angry Jan. 1 tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump complaining that Pakistan gives "terrorists" a safe haven.

"I think the best way we can do any kind of diplomacy with the Pakistani people is ... basically reaching out to the kids like we do at the concerts," Diplo told TMZ last month after the Trump tweet, which soured U.S.-Pakistani relations.

He added that by having U.S. acts connect with the large youth population - an estimated 60 percent of Pakistanis are under age 30 - "they can grow into being our allies".

More than 2,500 young people crowded into an outdoor venue in the capital, Islamabad, to a scaled down version of the event known for bringing together some of the hottest names in dance-hall, hip hop and electronic music.

Among the headliners were Diplo's chart-topping side project Major Lazer Soundsystem, DJ Chrome Sparks and Pakistani duo SNKM, which has played the South by Southwest festival and toured with Diplo in the U.S.

"There's a lot of bridges being built between here and the U.S." says SNKM's Adil Omar, who also has a successful hip hop career and a new album and film "Transcendence" to be released this year. REUTERS
Riaz Haq said…
Pakistan's auto sales surge 23 pct in January 2018

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/12/c_136970661.htm

The Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association announced on Monday that Pakistan's locally assembled cars and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) sales volume jumped by 23 percent to 23,562 units in January on the yearly comparison and by 22 percent on the monthly comparison.

The growth was largely attributed to Pak-Suzuki Motor Company's (PSMC) impressive sales numbers of the Wagon-R (an increase of 1,101 units) and Cultus (an increase of 680 units) and a strong response to Honda Atlas Cars' BR-V (an increase of 500 units).

Moreover, recent changes in import procedures have also resulted in a higher offtake for the less than 1,000cc segment, as consumers continue to shift to Pak-Suzuki Motor Company.

According to the Pakistani auto industry's official numbers, volumes for PSMC and Honda Atlas Car (HCAR) increased by 24 percent and 10 percent on yearly comparison while Indus Motor's volumes decreased by 7 percent.

Furthermore, growth was also recorded in LCVs sales, as they increased by 38 percent to 3,638 units in January this year when compared with the sales of 2,629 units in January last year.

Similarly, tractor sales continued to perform well, thereby registering 5,863 units for January, up by 9 percent as against 5,390 units in the same month of last year.

Moreover, motorcycles and three-wheelers also witnessed a fair bit of increase of 20 percent on the yearly comparison and 13 percent on the monthly comparison.

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Imports of used cars in Pakistan jump 70pc

https://www.dawn.com/news/1385303

Imports of used cars and minivans surged to 65,723 units in 2017, up almost 70 per cent from 38,676 units a year ago, latest data released by the auto industry shows.

The arrival of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) also increased 59pc to 7,758 units. Imports of pickups and vans registered a 9pc rise to 3,154 units.

The local industry maintains a record of each imported vehicle, whether new or old, through the Import General Manifest (IGM). Every imported car is logged in the customs’ IGM.

Toyota Vitz remained the most popular imported car in 2017. As many as 8,680 units arrived in 2017, up almost 40pc from a year ago. The volume of Daihatsu Mira swelled 73.1pc to 6,091 units.

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