American Prof John Mearsheimer on International Geopolitics in South Asia
Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned international relations expert known for his theory of "offensive realism", has recently spoken to India's CNN-News18 about the impact of US-China competition on geopolitics in South Asia. Sharing his thoughts in interviews on India-Pakistan conflict after the Pahalgam attack, he said: "There is really no military solution to this (Kashmir) problem. The only way this can be solved once and for all is through a political solution that both sides find acceptable".
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| Professor John Mearsheimer on India-Pakistan Conflict |
Professor John Mearsheimer is a highly respected professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Here's how he introduces himself on his personal website: "I am the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago, where I have taught since 1982. Above all else, I am an international relations theorist. More specifically, I am a realist, which means that I believe that the great powers dominate the international system, and they constantly engage in security competition with each other, which sometimes leads to war".
He has said that neither China nor the US want a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear war. However, it is in China's interest to "see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan" rather than on China. The US, on the other hand, wants India to focus all its energies on countering China.
Talking about the recent "Operation Sindoor" launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Pakistan, Mearsheimer said it will not deter Pakistan. "By Operation Sindoor, India has responded like it has in the past. Don't think India wants a major war with Pakistan, it can't dominate on the lower or even the middle rungs of the escalation ladder", he said.
On Chinese involvement in South Asia, Mearsheimer said: "China-Pakistan relations are quite good. The Chinese are providing excellent weaponry to Pakistan and will provide even better weapons in future". "I don’t think China wants an India-Pakistan war but it wants to see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan", he added.
Talking about the US interest in South Asia, he said: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China".
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Comments
https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-regards-india-as-an-existential-threat-us-defence-intelligence-annual-report/articleshow/121394664.cms
"Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage," the report metions.
"Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries," it added.
Further, the report says Pakistan's top priorities will likely remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbors.
"Despite Pakistan’s daily operations during the past year, militants killed more than 2,500 people in Pakistan in 2024," it added
US also said that Pakistan is the "primary recipient" of China’s economic and military generosity and foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan's armed forces are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China
"Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024," the report said.
"Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. However, terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers who support China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects has emerged as a point of friction between the countries; seven Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan in 2024," it added.
Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
So this is being done without any backchannel or official talks with Pakistan, or via a third party interlocutor like the US, when Modi claims that there has been no ceasefire and the military operation is still on.
https://x.com/SushantSin/status/1926512146721980920
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Pause in India-Pak military action, Army works on plan to ‘rebalance’ troops at border | India News - The Indian Express
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/to-dial-down-army-works-on-plan-to-rebalance-troops-equipment-at-border-10026907/
A fortnight into the pause of military action in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, a proposed plan for “rebalancing of troops” is being discussed within the military to avoid any fresh escalation at the borders, The Indian Express has learned.
This even as Operation Sindoor is on pause and all alerts remain at their heightened levels.
While Indian and Pak armies are focusing on multiple confidence-building measures, plans for de-escalating troops and equipment from the borders within the next fortnight are being considered.
Sources said Pakistan, which carried out major reinforcements of troops and equipment over the last few weeks, will also pull them back to pre-April locations.
Incidentally, India had not ordered large-scale mobilisation or deployment of offensive formations over the last month. Limited equipment and corresponding troops, which had been moved from their permanent locations to operational ones, are now planning to go back to their regular locations.
During Operation Sindoor, the density of troops along the borders had increased but that was more because of curtailing leave and less essential movement. However, sources said, these restrictions have now been lifted. Even short-term courses, which were to be cancelled temporarily, will now continue as per slated schedules.
According to sources, after the first two days following the ceasefire agreement, no aerial violations by Pakistani drones were reported though the occasional stray drones were sighted in Jammu and Kashmir.
They added that there are orders in place to avoid firing on them without appropriate clearances, even as any ceasefire violations at the LoC will be responded to by the troops.
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi had flagged, in his address to the nation, Operation Sindoor is only on pause. This would imply that the military would continue to remain at a heightened state of alertness and operational readiness, while maintaining a strong defensive posture throughout.
There has been no official statement from the government on whether there have been DGMO-level talks on the de-escalation after May 12.
On May 12, DGMO Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai spoke to his Pakistani counterpart Major General Kashif Abdullah – their second conversation since they agreed to stop all military action—during which it was agreed that both sides would consider immediate measures to ensure troop reduction from the borders and forward areas.
Sources said that stopping aerial violations was also discussed in the meeting.
An Army statement had also mentioned that issues related to continuing the commitment that both sides must not fire a single shot or initiate any aggressive and inimical action against each other were discussed in the talks.
The Indian Express had earlier reported that within days following May 12, both sides were scheduled to exchange plans on the modalities of de-escalation of troops and equipment deployed along the borders.
Two days after the May 12 talks, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar had claimed that Pakistan had agreed to extend the ceasefire with India until May 18 following DGMO-level talks between the two sides.
Without commenting on whether the two sides spoke, the Indian Army said both sides will continue the confidence-building measures to reduce the alertness level. It clarified that there is no expiry date to the understanding reached between the two militaries on May 10 to “stop all firing and military action from land, air and sea.”
AI Overview
Yes, the recent clashes between India and Pakistan have provided a significant boost to the Chinese defense industry. Pakistan's use of Chinese-made fighter jets and missiles in the conflict has raised awareness of their capabilities and sparked interest in Chinese military technology globally.
Here's why this is the case:
Battle-testing and marketing:
The conflict has served as a proxy battle-testing ground for Chinese military hardware, showcasing its potential to a global audience. This has effectively advertised Chinese weapons to a wider market, potentially increasing sales.
National pride and heightened perceptions:
The reported success of Chinese-made weapons in the conflict has boosted national pride in China and has also heightened global perceptions of Chinese military prowess and ingenuity.
Intelligence gathering:
The conflict provides China with valuable intelligence on its own weapons systems as they are used in a real-world scenario by Pakistan.
Increased demand and potential sales:
The perceived success of Chinese weapons could lead to increased demand for these systems from other countries, particularly those seeking more affordable and effective military technology.
Shift in perceptions of military technology:
The conflict has challenged the long-standing belief in the superiority of Western military technology, particularly in the context of affordability and effectiveness.
Strategic partnership:
China and Pakistan have a strong strategic partnership, with China being Pakistan's primary arms supplier. This close relationship allows for easier access to Chinese military technology and expertise.
Increased stock value:
The positive performance of Chinese-made weapons in the conflict has led to a surge in the stock prices of Chinese defense companies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81xS7V0rE8U
18:49
Pakistani response and all reports indicate that China is already
to a far more vigorous support You know Pakistan is a great investment for
18:56
China in this sense Uh first of all they get to test all their weapons They get
19:01
to showcase all their weapon systems to the world and already the world has taken
19:07
notice Secondly what they are doing is without any losses to themselves in terms of
19:14
life or uh significant material what they are uh doing is securing their
19:22
strategic objectives in the South Asia region which is to contain
19:29
India through their support to Pakistan So Pakistan will do whatever fighting is
19:35
necessary and India will suffer the consequences And a third factor is that
19:40
the demonstration of their weapon systems will bring them enormous
19:45
financial returns
shoaib daniyal
@ShoaibDaniyal
Remember the Karachi port attack and PAF pilot capture fake news that so many journalists ran?
@AnantGuptaAG
has a behind-the-scenes look into how that happened in this report.
https://x.com/ShoaibDaniyal/status/1926902361756233810
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Who won the media war?
A Scroll analysis of Western media reporting and interviews with experts show that Pakistan had an advantage over India in the information war.
Anant Gupta
https://scroll.in/article/1082684/can-indian-mp-delegations-reverse-pakistans-global-narrative-win
A Scroll analysis of foreign media reporting and interviews with several experts show that Pakistan has indeed edged out India in the information war. Will the Modi government be successful in its effort to fix the global narrative about the conflict and put the focus back on Pakistan’s use of terrorism against India?
View from the West
As far as the foreign press was concerned, the so-called Kashmir dispute was at the heart of the conflict from its very start – a narrative that India has always sought to avoid.
Since the Pahalgam terror attack, The Washington Post has published 21 stories about the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. Kashmir was in the headlines 10 times. Terrorism did not appear even once.
It may bring solace to India that the The New York Times carried a story about the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed, the two terrorist groups that India claimed to have targeted during Operation Sindoor.
But even so, it is unlikely that New Delhi will be pleased with how America’s newspaper of record saw the result of the fighting: a draw, not an Indian victory. A report that was published in the paper after the ceasefire announcement carried the headline: “India and Pakistan talked big, but satellite imagery shows limited damage.”
The headline to the newspaper’s first storyabout Operation Sindoor was even more damaging. “India strikes Pakistan but is said to have lost aircraft,” it read, highlighting a Pakistani claim that New Delhi has yet to confirm.
The New York Times was not alone. Other international media outlets, such as CNN and Reuters, followed up on Pakistani claims of taking down as many as five Indian fighter jets, state-of-the art French Rafales among them.
India has so far refused to publicly accept or deny any loss of planes. The loud silence made foreign journalists wary of other Indian claims as well.
“I respect anyone who is open about losses and weaknesses,” said Shashank Joshi, defence editor of The Economist. “I then trust them more when they make claims about their successes and their strengths.”
Even as Pakistani claims of downing Indian jets got play in the international press, the Indian assertion of killing over 100 terrorists during Operation Sindoor received little to no attention.
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Too little, too late
Given that Pakistan took the lead in shaping opinions in the West, analysts are sceptical about what the MP delegations from India will be able to achieve. Fair, the Georgetown professor, argued that these efforts to set the global narrative should have preceded military action.
“The Indians should have gone to the United Nations first,” she said. “They should have presented their evidence [about Pahalgam]. They should have gone around to global capitals first and then conducted the military operation.”
Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian Studies at Yale University, said it is unclear who the MPs would meet on these visits. But the fact that the government is sending them out is, in itself, an indictment of India’s foreign policy establishment, he said.
“If you require MPs who are not part of the government to talk about cross-border terrorism, then it is clearly a failure of [external affairs minister S] Jaishankar and the whole diplomatic core that we have,” Singh said. “What is it that Shrikant Shinde is going to do that a professional diplomat with 35 years of experience can’t do?”
Pravin Sawhney
@PravinSawhney
Lessons of #OperationSindoor :
1. It has brought India & Pakistan closest to hot war.
2. Showed vivid clarity on the next hot war between India & Pakistan.
3. With this operation, China replaced the US as the dominant power in South Asia.
4. Signaled China's capability to change the status quo of Kashmir.
5. Created China's credible deterrence against the US & western militaries by demonstrating operational superiority of its weapons & capabilities used by Pakistan.
6. Showed China's commitment to stand by a friend (Pakistan) to the Global South nations.
I will do a video & an article on this important issue this week!
https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1927255806921134497
@Defence_Index
China ( Victor Gao) has made its stance clear without raising its voice: water is a shared lifeline, not a tool for bilateral leverage. Any move by India to restrict Pakistan’s access could prompt China to do the same to India.
https://x.com/Defence_Index/status/1927331276354158713