EU-India Trade Deal: "Uncapped" Mass Migration of Indians?
The European Union (EU) and India have recently agreed to a trade deal which includes an MOU to allow “an uncapped mobility for Indian students”, according to officials, allowing Indians greater ease to travel, study and work across EU states. India's largest and most valuable export to the world is its people who last year sent $135 billion in remittances to their home country. Going by the numbers, the Indian economy is a tiny fraction of the European Union economy. Indians make up 17.8% of the world population but contribute only 3.3% of the global GDP. The European Union, on the other hand, has just 5.6% of the global population and produces 17.8% of the world's economic output.
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If finally signed and implemented, this "uncapped mobility" for Indians will probably become the most significant part of the deal. “More than 800,000 Indians are living and actively contributing to the countries of the European Union", according to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two sides welcomed the conclusion of the India‑EU Comprehensive Framework of Cooperation on Mobility, in line with the national competences of EU Member States and India and domestic legislation of both parties. They applauded the launch of the first pilot European Legal Gateway Office, as a one‑stop hub to provide information and support the movement of workers, starting with the ICT sector. |
Indians are currently the seventh-largest migrant group in Germany. Just the talk of "uncapped mobility" from India will trigger a backlash across Europe where far-right parties opposed to all immigration are gaining popularity. There have been high-profile hate incidents against Indians in several European countries recently. While the rise of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has increased hatred against Indian migrants, the arrival of the far-right in the mainstream political system in Germany has also started a conversation on racism that otherwise would have been swept under the rug.
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| EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi |
Undaunted by the anti-immigrant sentiments, the Indian government has quietly signed labor mobility agreements with at least 20 countries over the past half-dozen years — in Europe and Asia, including the Persian Gulf — all with developed economies and most without much history of hiring Indian workers, according to the New York Times. Arnab Bhattacharya, the chief executive of the "Global Access to Talent From India Foundation" think tank, estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030. His country, he told the NY Times, “has a workforce that should be servicing the world and not just India.” Their real aim is to deal with the ongoing unemployment crisis in India.
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| EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi |
Indian economy is not generating enough jobs for the nation's growing working age population. Corporate profits of Indian firms are growing at a much slower pace than the 8.2% GDP growth in its most recent quarter. Net income for Nifty 50 Index firms likely rose 1.1% in the three months through Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest pace in five quarters, weighed down by deteriorating margins for banks. Falling profits and declining currency are causing foreign capital to flee Indian markets. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out over $20 billion from Indian equities in 2025, marking a severe, sustained withdrawal that has continued into 2026. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen consecutive monthly outflows, including $1.67 billion in October and $446 million in November 2025. Investment banker Ruchir Sharma wrote about it in a Financial Times op ed titled "India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers". Ruchir wrote: "Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate"
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Comments
The 2026 EU-India trade deal, hailed as a "mother of all deals," faces significant opposition within the European Parliament, driven by concerns over lack of worker rights, environmental protections, and lingering protectionism in India. Despite reducing Indian tariffs on autos and wine, critics fear the deal harms local producers without securing sufficient sustainable development guarantees.
Opposition Highlights: Some MEPs and industry groups (like Eurofer) criticize the deal for imbalances, citing India's protectionist procurement policies.
Key Issues: The agreement lacks strong provisions on workers' rights and social protection, which angers key sections of the European Parliament.
Strategic Context: The deal was accelerated as a geopolitical counterweight to U.S. tariffs and to reduce reliance on China, making it sensitive to political shifts within the EU.
Ratification Hurdles: While aimed for 2027 implementation, the deal must pass approval from the European Parliament and all member states, where similar agreements (like Mercosur) have recently stalled.
While the deal strengthens trade in automobiles and machinery, opposition remains regarding whether it truly creates a fair, rules-based partnership or simply prioritizes geopolitics over European standards.
@aus_pill
India’s ruling BJP party leadership have said they want a strong diaspora, using existing influential ones as their model. This influence, combined with remittances and staving off a youth unemployment crisis is why they’re aggressive about putting migration pacts in trade deals.
https://x.com/aus_pill/status/2016720162016411752?s=20
Ajay Kamath
@ajay43
The INR has fallen 6% against the Pakistani rupee over the past few weeks. It has literally collapsed against the Euro. Not one policy maker has an explanation, not one media outlet is asking questions, and
@iam_juhi
and
@SrBachchan
aren’t making jokes
https://x.com/ajay43/status/2016795856419357022?s=20
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sahil bhadviya
@sahilbhadviya
INR is not just falling against USD. It is falling against all major currencies. A euro trip is now 20% more expensive in last 1 yr. UK trip is 12%-14% expensive.. this is crazy. I fail to understand what is happening.
https://x.com/sahilbhadviya/status/2016772489519779916?s=20
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Pakistan becomes latest Asian country to introduce checks for deadly Nipah virus | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pakistan-becomes-latest-asian-country-introduce-checks-deadly-nipah-virus-2026-01-29/
Summary
India confirmed two infections in late December
India says no outbreak, no need for screening at its airports
A number of Asian nations have tightened screening
Nipah has high mortality rate but not easily transmitted
LAHORE/HANOI/HYDERABAD, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Authorities in Pakistan have ordered enhanced screening of people entering the country for signs of infections of the deadly Nipah virus after India confirmed two cases, adding to the number of Asian countries stepping up controls.
Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have also tightened screening at airports. But an Indian official said there were no plans to introduce screening at the country's airports and said there was no sign of any outbreak.
The Nipah virus can cause fever and brain inflammation and has a high mortality rate. There is also no vaccine. But transmission from person to person is not easy and typically requires prolonged contact with an infected individual.
PAKISTAN SEEKS TRANSIT HISTORY
"It has become imperative to strengthen preventative and surveillance measures at Pakistan's borders," the Border Health Services department said in a statement.
"All travelers shall undergo thermal screening and clinical assessment at the Point of Entry," which includes seaports, land borders and airports, the department added.
The agency said travellers would need to provide transit history for the preceding 21-day period to check whether they had been through "Nipah-affected or high-risk regions".
There are no direct flights between Pakistan and India and travel between them is extremely limited, particularly since their worst fighting in decades erupted last May.
In Hanoi, the Vietnamese capital's health department on Wednesday also ordered the screening of incoming passengers at Noi Bai airport, particularly those arriving from India and the eastern state of West Bengal, where the two health workers were confirmed to have the virus in late December.
Passengers will be checked with body temperature scanners.
"This allows for timely isolation, epidemiological investigation," the department said in a statement.
That follows measures by authorities in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest city, who said they had tightened health controls at international border crossings.
NO OUTBREAK, NO WORRY, SAYS INDIA
India's health ministry said this week that authorities have identified and traced 196 contacts linked to the two cases with none showing symptoms and all testing negative for the virus.
The two infected people are health workers, with the male patient doing well and likely to be discharged from hospital soon, while the female patient remains critical and under treatment, the chief district medical officer in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal told Reuters on Thursday.
Indian health authorities have repeatedly sought to reassure people that the infection has been contained and that there is no reason to fear an outbreak. Federal health authorities also said there was no need to screen passengers at Indian airports.
@Anarseldain
Modi is an ethnic nationalist and the explicit goal of his party is to send millions of indians to the first world so that they can secure funding and policy influence for india, citing zionism as an example.
https://x.com/Anarseldain/status/2016887094464172457?s=20
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Polish Connection
@PoleConnection
Outcomes of the India EU deal, retweeted by Modi
https://x.com/PoleConnection/status/2016384034662679026?s=20
@Anarseldain
Modi is an ethnic nationalist and the explicit goal of his party is to send millions of indians to the first world so that they can secure funding and policy influence for india, citing zionism as an example.
https://x.com/Anarseldain/status/2016887094464172457?s=20
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Polish Connection
@PoleConnection
Outcomes of the India EU deal, retweeted by Modi
https://x.com/PoleConnection/status/2016384034662679026?s=20
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Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
These outcomes reinforce our commitment to further strengthening the partnership between India and the European Union.
https://x.com/narendramodi/status/2016149408027693258?s=20
@SushantSin
This is nominal wage growth. Real wage growth is actually negative under the Modi govt. How can that lead to increased consumption which is what would drive private investment?
https://x.com/SushantSin/status/2016724428952858854?s=20
India’s consumption story has a wage growth problem | Business News - The Indian Express
https://indianexpress.com/article/business/india-consumption-story-has-a-wage-growth-problem-10499910/
While one-off tax cuts can boost consumption in the short term, sustained increase in household demand requires wages to grow at a healthy clip.
The year 2025-26 has been about supporting household consumption. First, the Union Budget presented last year lowered income tax rates under the new regime. Then, in September, the long-awaited rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was finally announced. Now, with the Union Budget for 2026-27 around the corner, it is expected that segments other than the consumer will be the focus.
But it is worth examining if consumption – even after the two supportive measures of the last one year – is indeed doing well. The problem is that there is no clear answer.
Yes, demand for consumer durables rose in the aftermath of the GST rate cuts, with vehicle sales increasing significantly, in particular as households took advantage of lower prices. According to credit bureau TransUnion CIBIL, demand for consumer durable loans was incrementally higher by around one-and-a-half times in the 20-day festival window between Dussehra and Diwali compared to the previous year. This, the firm said last month, was
At 92 to a US$, ₹357.14 lakh crore converts to $3.9 trillion, while Modi govt clams well above $4.1 trillion.
https://www.youtube.com/live/UtF6aUpqSbs?si=5xbN-_woHq-jKs-Z
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2631187/pakistan
Deputy PM chairs inter-ministerial meeting, calls GSP+ “crucial” for growth
Move follows India–EU trade pact that industry warns could hit exports, jobs
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar on Friday chaired a high-level inter-ministerial meeting to review and strengthen trade and economic relations with the European Union, as Islamabad scrambles to safeguard market access following India’s new trade deal with the bloc.
The meeting is part of a broader diplomatic and policy push this week after India and the EU confirmed a free trade agreement granting Indian exporters sweeping tariff-free access to Europe — a development Pakistani exporters and analysts warn could erode Pakistan’s competitiveness, particularly in textiles, its largest export sector.
The EU is Pakistan’s second-largest export market, accounting for about $9 billion in annual shipments, mostly textiles and apparel. Industry leaders have warned that India’s tariff-free access could undercut Pakistan’s long-standing advantage under the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+), which allows duty-free access in return for commitments on labor rights, human rights and governance.
At Friday’s meeting, Dar emphasized the centrality of GSP+ to Pakistan’s trade strategy with Europe.
“He emphasized that GSP Plus remains a crucial framework for mutually beneficial trade and underlined the need to maximize its potential for Pakistan’s economic growth,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.
Dar also stressed the importance of enhancing trade cooperation with the EU and exploring new avenues for economic engagement, as Pakistan assesses how to respond to shifting trade dynamics in Europe.
The inter-ministerial huddle follows a series of rapid consultations this week, including a meeting between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the EU’s ambassador to Pakistan, as well as briefings by trade bodies to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on the potential impact of the India–EU agreement.
Exporters have warned that unless Pakistan lowers production costs, particularly energy tariffs, and secures continued preferential access, the country could face declining market share in Europe and job losses across its labor-intensive textile sector.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office has said Islamabad is aware of the India–EU agreement and continues to view its trade relationship with the EU as mutually beneficial, but officials acknowledge that the new deal has intensified pressure to defend Pakistan’s position within the bloc.
Conversation
United States Trade Representative
@USTradeRep
India will lower tariffs on a wide array of U.S. industrial and agricultural goods to 0%.
President Trump’s historic deal with India delivers unprecedented market access for American farmers and producers.
https://x.com/USTradeRep/status/2018709394054144155?s=20
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Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳
@zhao_dashuai
The US-Indian trade deal is a total Modi capitulation.
I see some indians celebrating the trade deal, because India gets 18% tariff, lower than countries they see as competitors.
But the problem is, Modi got the 18% by promising to have 0% tariff on major import items from the US, like agriculture products, energy and manufactured goods.
Modi also threw Russia under the bus by promising not to buy Russian oil.
So all US had to do for total India to surrender was to impose high tariffs, then drop the newly imposed tariff. In return, India changes their decade long trade policies.😂
This is the true nature of indians, they can spin any defeat into a victory on social media and on the news.
https://x.com/zhao_dashuai/status/2018685907155800365?s=20
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Conversation
Sincere Dibya
@TheSincereDude
🚨 REALITY CHECK: Modi calls 18% tariff a “victory”,
But here’s what he’s NOT telling you:
1️⃣ Trump STARTED at 25%, went to 50% to bully us, then reduced to 18%; classic negotiation trap. We’re celebrating our own surrender.
2️⃣ India GAVE UP Russian oil; our cheapest energy source that saved billions for ordinary Indians. Who benefits? American oil companies.
3️⃣ We’ve committed to buy $500 BILLION of US goods; energy, coal, tech, agriculture. That’s not partnership, that’s colonial tribute.
4️⃣ Even at 18%, we’re taxed HIGHER than Vietnam (20% before, now similar), Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia (all 19%); so much for “special partnership.”
5️⃣ India’s average tariff is 17%, US is 3.3%. “Reciprocal” would mean they charge us 17%, not 18%+. Trump is charging us MORE than our own rate.
This isn’t diplomacy. It’s transactional humiliation dressed up as friendship.
Modi sold India’s strategic autonomy and energy security for a photo-op with Trump.
The 1.4 billion Indians deserve leaders who negotiate FROM strength, not ON their knees.
https://x.com/TheSincereDude/status/2018514396067357034?s=20
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Conversation
Ajay Kamath
@ajay43
18% for us, ZERO for them. Awesomeness! What a deal! 🙄🙄🙄 No Russian oil, buy all American…. the good news just doesn’t stop. For them!!!
https://x.com/ajay43/status/2018393098393727160?s=20
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Manish Singh
@ManishNifty
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇳 India agrees to reduce tariffs on the United States to 0% and will stop buying Russian oil.
In return, the US will reduce tariffs from 25% to 18%
Wondering who is on the losing side in this deal
https://x.com/ManishNifty/status/2018372537995129127?s=20
@TheDeshBhakt
In the last few hours - every Trump administration official has given a more information about the #usindiatradedeal than the Modi Govt did in the last 24 hours (& now we know why)
Turns out that the Govt was celebrating without divulging all the details of the 'deal' - that include
🚨 India purchasing $500 BILLION worth of American goods
🚨 Opening up our protected agricultural sector for American products
🚨 Lowering tariffs on almost all US imports to ZERO (while still facing an 18% tariff on the American side)
🚨 Buying oil (or not) from where American decides for us.
Unless the entire US Govt is lying through its teeth - the alleged Dhurandhar has done surrender.
Watch New Ep. - https://youtu.be/0_u0ZNxRnX0
https://x.com/TheDeshBhakt/status/2018769618186424780?s=20
https://www.techjuice.pk/germany-introduces-new-visa-options-for-pakistani-it-professionals/
Germany has introduced updated immigration rules aimed at attracting skilled IT professionals from around the world, including Pakistan, by simplifying visa procedures and expanding residency options for technology workers.
The new framework, introduced under policies linked to Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, provides multiple pathways for qualified IT professionals seeking employment and long-term residence in the country. The updated rules also establish revised salary thresholds effective from January 2026.
One of the primary routes is the Residence Permit for Skilled Workers, which is available to applicants with recognized academic or vocational qualifications and a confirmed job offer from a German employer. Applicants aged over 45 must meet a minimum annual salary requirement of €55,770 or demonstrate adequate pension provisions.
Germany is also continuing its EU Blue Card program for highly skilled professionals. To qualify, applicants must possess a university degree recognized in Germany and secure a relevant job offer. The minimum annual salary requirement has been set at €45,934.20, while salaries exceeding €50,700 are exempt from approval by the Federal Employment Agency.
The reforms also create opportunities for experienced IT professionals who do not hold a university degree. Under one pathway, applicants with at least three years of IT experience within the previous seven years can qualify with a valid job offer and compliance with salary requirements. Another simplified route allows individuals with two years of recent IT experience to apply if they secure employment offering a minimum annual salary of €45,630.
Germany has also introduced flexibility for employers operating under collective bargaining agreements, allowing certain salary exemptions while ensuring workers receive equivalent benefits and protections.
The reforms are intended to address Germany’s growing shortage of skilled technology workers and strengthen the country’s position as a leading destination for global IT talent.
Inside India newsletter: Modi is exporting India’s workforce to a world turning against immigration
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/modi-export-india-workforce-anti-immigration.html
POINTS
Labor mobility deals have become a feature of many recent bilateral deals India has signed with Russia, Israel, New Zealand, Finland, and the European Union.
Modi’s push for labor exports comes as remittances, roughly 3% of India’s GDP, have become an important source of government finances.
Unlike Chinese workers, who are returning home to aid local technological advancements, experts say India lacks the opportunities to provide cutting-edge work to its highly skilled labor force.
The big story
From Europe to New Zealand and Russia to the Middle East, labor mobility pacts have become a common feature in many of the recent deals India has finalized with its trading partners.
The lack of opportunities for highly skilled labor in the country, with one of the largest working-age populations, coupled with India’s increasing reliance on remittances to fund its finances, is driving the government to secure passage for its workforce overseas.
Unlike China, which has become a manufacturing powerhouse generating jobs at scale, India has not been able to fully address its “grave challenge of an unemployment rate hovering around 5% to 6%,” Jayant Krishna, senior fellow and chair on India and emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC.
“If we add under-employed people, the rate jumps up alarmingly,” Krishna said, adding that by placing skilled and semi-skilled workers in overseas markets, India manages “the aspirations of our ever-expanding working-age population.”
India’s government has become increasingly reliant on money sent home by its overseas workers, receiving the highest amount of remittances globally, equal to roughly 3% of its GDP, experts said.
The backlash
But this policy doesn’t come without resistance, especially at a time when anti-immigration sentiment is on the rise across the world. Last week, Prime Minister of New Zealand Christoper Luxon hailed the country’s free trade deal with India that also enhances labor mobility for Indian workers.
“You have enriched our country economically, socially and culturally,” Luxon told a crowd of Indian diaspora in Auckland. But the deal, which is awaiting final clearance from parliament, faces strong opposition from coalition members of Luxon’s government.
The country’s Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, in a post on X, said the trade deal with India is creating “unprecedented immigration settings” and will make it harder for “kiwis finding jobs.” Months earlier, Shane Jones, a minister in the Luxon government and a member of Winston’s party, NZ First, said the deal would lead to a “butter chicken tsunami” coming to New Zealand.
Modi’s recent visit to Australia - where India overtook the England as the top country for Australians born overseas last year - also sparked anti-India protests. Australian social media personality Hugo Lennon heckled Modi in Melbourne, shouting, “No more Indians! This Country is for Australians,” according to local media reports.
Meanwhile, the U.S., one of the biggest recipients of Indian workers, is tightening visa rules even as negotiations are ongoing for a trade deal with New Delhi. Washington’s move has only given India an added incentive to strike labor mobility deals to export workers to Russia, Israel and the European Union, and Finland earlier this year.
The U.S. created H-1B visas in 1990 and they’re used heavily by U.S. tech giants to bring in highly skilled workers from overseas. India has been, by far, the biggest recipient of H-1B visas, but the Trump administration is trying to drastically reduce the country’s reliance on the scheme.
In
Inside India newsletter: Modi is exporting India’s workforce to a world turning against immigration
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/modi-export-india-workforce-anti-immigration.html
India observed the vicissitudes of H-1B politics in the U.S. and “drew the evident lesson: do not leave your diaspora’s access to foreign labor markets hostage to another nation’s domestic politics,” Ronak D. Desai, visiting fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC.
“Mobility grounded in treaty is politically far more durable than mobility granted by unilateral visa policy,” he added.
The Chinese example
India’s move to export labor stands in sharp contrast to its fellow billion-plus-people neighbor, China, which has seen a flood of returnees in the last decade, partly due to the geopolitical tensions that led to the expulsion of Chinese scientists from the U.S.
China has a term for the phenomenon: Haigui, literally, a “returning from across the sea,” according to the Boym Institute think tank.
“Haigui” has seeded its semiconductor, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence sectors, experts said, adding that Beijing also created the domestic capacities to absorb this highly skilled talent.
“Professionals with portable skills have been extremely valuable to help China’s technological advancement,” Rafiq Dossani, adjunct senior Economist at RAND Corporation, told CNBC.
While Beijing offers both incentives to return and infrastructure, India lacks the ability to spur development of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, he added.
India spends about half of one percent of its GDP on research and development, lower than the global average of 1.7% and significantly below the over 3.5% spent by the U.S.
In the absence of comparable opportunities in India, the Modi government does not see “brain drain” as a major concern, Pramit Chaudhuri, South Asia practice head at Eurasia Group, said.
Rather, they are choosing to promote it, he added.